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Muerto · 10-05-2024, 06:15 AM

S79 Team TPE and Roster Analysis

Hello and welcome once again to these pieces analyzing the team TPE to predict where they will finish in the standings. With most teams having their rosters finalized or close to it, we can start to see how they all stack up against each other!

My methodology is based on the premise that the single biggest indicator to how a team will do is the team TPE, and how it is distributed. That is to say that generally Forwards > Defense > Goalie. Obviously things like player builds and roles, and coaching strategies and line chemistry are factors that can change things, but I would argue to a lesser extent than simply team TPE. Also, I list the roster depth chart solely on TPE: not all teams, or any team necessarily, will run their lines exactly like this but it still gives a clear view on where the strengths or weaknesses of a team may lie.

Without further ado, let's have a look at:

NORTHEAST DIVISION

Stars

TORONTO NORTH STARS Stars

1824 1798 1781
1712 1525 1500
1180 1171 1116 848

1916 1685
1509 1494
1150 916

1127 364

The North Stars are a team peaking at the right time - they have high TPE numbers across all 3 lines at forward and the best defense in the division. They have some elite players across their top 2 lines and the best part for them is that they are very young, coming in stronger across the roster than they were last season. They seem in a good position to be contenders out of the East.
Prediction 42-44 Wins

NEW ENGLAND WOLFPACK

1834 1821 1711
1497 1487 1482
1354 1153 1149

1829 1366
1317 1195
1187 1178

1071 522

Absolutely no weaknesses on this roster. An elite top line, strong depth across all 3 lines, and a good mix of vets and younger players. They come in very similar to last season in terms of total TPE so the regression is balanced out by the young players improving. They are equally strong as Toronto at forward but at defense they are just slightly behind so I will place them second. But a close second!
Prediction: 40-42 Wins

BUFFALO STAMPEDE

1834 1773 1540
1492 1025 985
929 837 773

1954 1141
1104 1051
1028 834

1120 420

Buffalo has improved their defense TPE over last season, but the forward group has gotten a little bit weaker. But they still have some excellent players at the top of their lineup. The relative weaknesses on the 2nd and 3rd line are due to young players making their way into the league - 6 players are S75 draftees or younger so that is a good sign that they will trend upwards. They don't have the same kind of depth that the teams above them possess, so they will be relying on their top players to lead the way.
Prediction: 31-33 Wins

MONTREAL PATRIOTES

1526 1518 1322
1305 1233 1106
974 962 811

1341 1305
1171 963
905

1192

There's a couple holes on the roster still to be filled but what they do have in place is a really solid and improving core to build on. They are stronger than last season at almost every position, and given that the oldest player on the roster is from S73, we can only assume they will continue to get better. The East is still a very tough conference but they are ready to take a step forward and strive for a playoff spot this season.
Prediction: 24-26 Wins

HAMILTON STEELHAWKS

1718 1594 1572
1180 1127 1109
971 698 581 559

1280 985
944 870
513

1261 536

Hamilton seems to be in the beginning stages of a rebuild, shipping out a number of players to amass draft picks in the offseason. It makes sense given that more than half their players are regressing. One bright spot though is that their top line is actually stronger than last season but the flip side to that is they have gotten weaker everywhere else. A new batch of rookies is joining the team this season and their top players are still a couple seasons away from regressing but it does seem the focus is on the future.
Prediction: 16-18 Wins

There you have it! Good luck and have fun!

***ThisSeemsFishy*** · 10-05-2024, 06:21 AM

Brb saving this post for the next Season Predictions. Great write up!!

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