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Muerto · 12-09-2024, 10:27 AM

S80 Team Roster and TPE Analysis

Hello and welcome back to the media guaranteed to get you maximum TPE!*

With the new season about to get under way, everyone wants to know how is my team going to do?
Since most teams pretty much have their rosters finalized (or close to it), we can start to see how they all stack up against each other!

My predictions methodology is based on the premise that the single biggest indicator to how a team will perform in the regular season is the Team TPE, and how it is distributed. That is to say that generally Forwards > Defense > Goalie. Factors like player builds/roles, coaching strategies, and line chemistry/deployment can change things, but to a much lesser extent than simply looking at Team TPE. Also, I list the roster depth chart solely on TPE - very few teams will actually run their lines in such a way, but it still gives a clear view on where the strengths or weaknesses of a team may lie. Clearly a team with lots of active players can still improve their standing now and this is just a snapshot as to where things stand at the moment.

This season I am packaging it all up in just one piece instead of a separate media for each division, but it is divisions positioning that matters most so we will still break it down that way.

Without further ado, let's have a look at how teams are looking with preseason just around the corner and predictions Point Tasks already up!

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PACIFIC DIVISION

pride

San Francisco Pride pride

1941 1895 1865
1836 1816 1793
1684 1620 881

1836 1765
1653 1235
1028 869

1239 213

Ok this is just a sick team. Their top line is the best line in the SHL. Their second line is also the best line in the SHL. Their 8th highest TPE forward would be on the top line of about half the teams in the league. Add to that a number of elite defensemen and a solid goalie and you have pretty much an unstoppable force.

Coming off a President's Trophy and Challenge Cup winning season, they have not even really taken a step back. They are a team at their peak and anything short of a repeat is probably going to be considered a disappointment.

Prediction: 50-52 Wins

Los Angeles Panthers

1853 1700 1664
1627 1572 1384
1352 1242 993 960

1860 1855
1513 1457
1268 1075

1667

The Panthers are starting to age and facing significant regression especially amongst their forward group. They are still strong and have solid depth and no real weak areas, but they just aren't quite looking like the powerhouse they have been for a while, especially with other teams in the division on the rise to challenge them.

The defense and goaltending is the big strength of the squad, actually coming in a bit better overall than last season, so it's not like they are in danger of missing the playoffs or anything. The more pressing concern for the team is the future - with the majority of their players in regression, and basically 0 viable prospects in the system, they might have some hard choices to make soon. But what the heck, one last ride with the Gang and see where they go!

Prediction: 44-46 Wins

Dragons

Calgary Dragons Dragons

1615 1578 1546
1342 1342 1176
1175 1102 1075

1551 1548
1519 1442
1245 997

1157 397

The Dragons have just really stepped up and outperformed expectations over the last couple of seasons. The roster got 41 wins last year and comes in seeing improvements at pretty much every position. They have already been knocking on the door and giving teams notice that they are ready to be in the conversation.

The one area they lack a bit is just having that elite top line but they have decent depth across all 3 lines and a really nice-looking defense corps. Given how quickly they shot up the ranks, it is entirely possible that they are ready to break into the top 2 of the division. But it's also possible that they hit a plateau this season, just because there's only so many wins to go around.

Prediction: 38-40 Wins

Seattle Argonauts

1722 1566 1540
1532 1523 1336
1167 1122 953

1471 1317
1241 1204
1000 990

1157 708

Is it safe to say the rebuild is over? Seattle management asked the fans for patience when they committed to a full rebuild, and now they need to deliver on that promise. Things look good in that aspect, as every single position on the roster comes in stronger than last season, by an average of 150+ TPE per player. They have really good depth in their forward group and have addressed most areas of weakness in their roster. The team is still very young but their trajectory has been steady improvement year after year and this season should be no exception. Could this be the season they really break out?

Prediction: 32-34 Wins

Edmonton Blizzard

1422 1323 1164
1145 972 953
473 466

1002 942
832 782
749 533

575

So even though Edmonton had a lot to be happy about with the performances of their rookies last year, and won more games than I expected, they were still not really good. And they still aren't really good, in fact overall they are slightly worse TPE wise than last year. They are still missing a couple players to fill out the roster but I doubt anyone they add would really make much difference.

Prediction: 12-14 Wins

CENTRAL DIVISION

Texas Renegades

1705 1635 1635
1610 1402 1148
1039 969 749

1771 1718
1571 1161
1102 1003

1483 781

Texas has been on top of this division for a while now, finishing first every year since S74. But more than half their players are in regression. Can their stars have a repeat performance of last season when Valentine led the league in scoring? They are still strong comparatively and benefit from being in the weakest overall division in the league.

Prediction: 46-48 Wins

New Orleans Specters

1647 1370 1282
1164 1157 1114
1016 799

1629 1603
1583 1531
1504 887

1860 288

The strength of the Specters continues to be their defense and goaltending but they are seeing some significant drop off in the overall forward TPE. This doesn't bode well since their weakness has been goal scoring. They do have an open roster spot which they could try to fill with a big trade or Free Agent signing. They are seeing some young players stepping up the depth chart as their aging players regress which should keep them competitive.

Prediction: 38-40 Wins

Chicago Syndicate

1904 1760 1501
1140 1130 988
969 935 832

1730 1416
1161 932
913 805

959 936

Another team starting to see the fruits of their rebuild start to ripen. They have developed a very strong top line and now they are just waiting for the depth to grow into their roles. A lot of rookies and 2nd/3rd year players here so they could be a bit of a wildcard but their worst seasons are probably behind them as they look to once again become a perennial playoff team.

Prediction: 26-28 Wins

Minnesota Monarchs

1765 1448 1439
1416 1222 1097
1012 953 816

999 837
759 751
744 682

934 496

The forwards look pretty good, solid top line for sure. But that defense is a but iffy. You get the feeling there will be a lot of high scoring pond hockey games from this team, as they do have talent up front but will probably struggle to keep the goals against down. Playoffs is a possibility but not assured.

Prediction: 20-22 Wins

Aurora

Winnipeg Aurora Aurora

1758 1569 1040
968 965 927
894 777 761

1532 855
814 783
665 537

1874 544

Speaking of rebuilds, it is Winnipeg's turn to start graduating their draft picks into players. By my count they have 6 rookies on the team this year including a couple of under-agers. This bodes really well for the future, but for this season they might be looking more for moral victories than actual victories. But the way they are going it won't be more than a few seasons until they are right back in the mix again.

Prediction: 20-22 Wins

ATLANTIC DIVISION

Forge

Philadelphia Forge Forge

1873 1785 1683
1637 1539 1494
1453 950 930

1695 1688
1591 1540
1075 1039

1334 802

A template for roster building and management, Philadelphia seems to always be in the conversation as they continually rotate new players into the roster as older players age out. Regression has taken a bit of the edge off their top line, but the 2nd and 3rd line are a little bit better. They have dropped a bit on the defensive side but not to the point it should be worrying.

Prediction: 42-44 Wins

Tampa Bay Barracuda

1779 1663 1563
1561 1449 1447
1272 1145 1095

1975 1782
1725 1426
1353 1300

1883

The Barracuda had by their standards a bit of a down season last year but they are just as strong as ever. The bulk of the roster is in their peak seasons, and any TPE lost to regression is more than made up for by the gains of the players not regressing yet. The defense and goaltending is amongst the best in the league. They are in a tough division with no weak teams, but I expect they will be right there near the top.

Prediction: 42-44 Wins

Inferno

Atlanta Inferno Inferno

1773 1756 1743
1417 1358 1339
1306 1157 905

1757 1727
1699 1467
1313 1288

948 900

Just a really good-looking team here, solid top line, solid depth forwards, great looking defense. Maybe goaltending is not quite as strong as other teams here but the tandem is solid. They are really young, too, with only 5 players on the team regressed from last year. They made the semis last season, and they are significantly more improved so there's no reason they couldn't do it again.

Prediction: 40-42 Wins

Platoon

Baltimore Platoon Platoon

1718 1676 1663
1499 1450 1368
1153 1138 954

1891 1424
1337 1243
1159 859

1174 868

Baltimore has some young players on the rise, and some already great players in their peak. They are a little weaker at the top end but getting stronger with the 2nd/3rd lines. It's just tough in a division like this that they are just a little behind the other teams ahead of them even though they are not by any means a bad team. With a little luck they could squeak out a home ice playoff spot.

Prediction 35-37 Wins

Rage

Manhattan Rage Rage

1761 1531 1529
1351 1198 1186
1054 988 927

1943 1581
1343 1231
1018 837

1358 822

A team making big strides to try and crack out of the basement in this division. They have improved a lot overall, every line is stronger than last season and their top players are just about to hit their peak stretch. The other teams in this division aren't going to make it easy for them to do, but they have a good chance to make the playoffs in a wildcard spot.

Prediction: 32-34 Wins

NORTHEAST DIVISION

New England Wolfpack

1785 1703 1689
1630 1448 1427
1424 1035 950

1723 1516
1334 1267
1233 922

1189 440

The Wolfpack are looking solid again, some great high-end players, decent depth on the middle lines, and solid-earning young players making their way onto the team. They've been doing a great job of rolling young players up the depth chart as their aging legends start to drop off the TPE count and they should be considered a serious contender for the Cup this season.

Prediction: 40-42 Wins

Stars

Toronto North Stars Stars

1781 1718 1713
1678 1624 1361
1254 872 631

1886 1868
1660 1076
392 320

1236 364

As you might have heard, the team is combatting a salary cap penalty this year so unfortunately they had to move out a couple high TPE players and replace them with much much cheaper bargain basement players. But they did a decent job of salvaging what they could and can still put out one of the best top lines in the league and a very solid second line. But the drop off after that is probably what will be the difference in being as competitive as they would have wanted.

Prediction 37-39 Wins

Montreal Patriotes

1761 1710 1475
1471 1389 1279
1154 1000 963 770

1463 1361
1343 1168
850 847

1375 170

We've talked about a couple teams emerging from the murky depths of a rebuild - Montreal is another one of those teams. Seasons of steady growth and development have all of a sudden resulted in a squad that is very intriguing on paper. A couple players entering elite levels, a decent 2nd line, and a 3rd line ready to get their careers started.
Their growth coupled with the retooling of a couple teams in this division should see them finally take the next step forward and join the playoffs again.

Prediction: 30-32 Wins

Buffalo Stampede

1762 1682 1409
1132 1127 990
943 852 655

1972 1299
1197 1177
921 801

1005 420

Buffalo's in a bit of an in-between spot where the regressing guys are falling off just a bit faster than the young guys are improving. So the top lines, they aren't bad but they aren't as good as they were, the young guys have upside but they haven't reached the point where they are ready to take over. The top players they have are certainly fantasy darlings and always seem to perform well but the glaring weakness on the team is the lack of depth so they might be a little inconsistent.

Prediction: 25-27 Wins

Hamilton Steelhawks

1913 1798 1697
1172 940 924
871 817 656 541

1128 947
922 772
711 652

1023 664

Damn I wish my team had that kind of a 1st line! There's enough talent there to win games on their own, and they are going to have to because they don't have a lot of help. That top line has improved over last season but the rest of the team has fallen off. Chances are they will be looking at a lotto pick again as they reload their prospect pool to get back to competitiveness.

Prediction: 18-20 Wins

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Thanks for reading! Good luck and have fun!

*not actually guaranteed

***luke*** · 12-09-2024, 12:03 PM

I think Montreal will have a sneaky good season this year. Love this seasonly write up as always

spidey · 12-09-2024, 12:27 PM

Great write up as always. I am (prediction wise) hoping that bottom defense pair in Toronto doesn't get exposed too badly. I think they are strong enough to take top of their division.