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Deep Dive #1 - An Analysis of Takeaways in the SMJHL
#1

Of all the stats within the SHL universe, giveaways and takeaways seem to be two of the most overlooked. I have also overlooked these stats throughout my time here. After doing a little research for the Ideen Fallah (SMJHL MVP) Trophy, I saw that Ty Justice had 100 takeaways, and just 17 giveaways. At first glance, that seems absolutely remarkable. Surely that 17/100 giveaway-to-takeaway ratio has to hold some weight in award discussions, right? I dug deeper on the topic:

Ty Justice's 100 takeaways this season were the most in the league. Roisin Armagh is second with 98 takeaways, however his 22 giveaways bring his ratio down. Ty Justice's 17/100 or 17% ratio seems like a good baseline. Were any players able to record a better giveaway-to-takeaway ratio? Yes! From most-to-least points, Weston Windsor recorded a 13/94 (13.8%) ratio. Jeremy Snugglemuffin III recorded a 12/85 (14.1%) ratio. There are 5 other players who recorded lower ratios. Of those, the most notable are Harry Fairchild (8/73, 11%), and Charles Loucard (7/69, 10.1%). In comparison to the rest of the league, Ty Justice's ratio isn't as significant as I originally thought.

How do these numbers stack up historically? In the FHM era, Eric Vanderberg Jr has the most career SMJHL takeaways with 344. During his 4-year stint in the league, he put up some impressive ratios. All four of his seasons were under the 12% mark, and in just his second-year, he recorded the overall league record with an astounding 8/103 (7.8%) giveaway-to-takeaway ratio. He also hold the career ratio record with 37/344 (10.8%). Ty Justice holds nothing in comparison to this guy's defensive performances. Also, takeaways seem to be trending upward in the SMJHL. Of the top 10 career SMJHL takeaway leaders, 4 of them are wrapping up their careers this season (S80.) 2 of them graduated from the SMJHL in S77. The other four retired between seasons 69 and 74. After a long-standing offensive meta, perhaps SMJHL GMs are starting to see the value in takeaways, thus prioritizing more defensive builds. 

Do these ratios hold any weight in award discussions? The Ideen Fallah (SMJHL MVP) trophy tends to gravitate towards forwards. A defenseman has not won the award since the start of the FHM era. However, there are two awards dedicated to defensemen, so maybe it's safe to say Ty Justice is out of the running for the overall MVP award. Let's take a look at the Quilha Agante (top defenseman) award winners. In S79, Peter put up a 10/70 (14.3%) ratio. He put up a similar ratio this season. In S78, Jacppo Nummilavin put up a 12/69 (17.4%) ratio. In S77, Cade de Vries put up an ugly 23/70 (32.9%) ratio. In S76, Troy McClure IIII put up an 11/71 (15.5%) ratio. Based of the last 5 award winners, Ty Justice's defensive ratio puts him smack dab in the middle. When put together with his league-leading offensive numbers, he certainly has a case to win this year's award.

You may have noticed I said last 5 award winners, but only mentioned 4. This is because defensive legend, Eric Vanderberg Jr won both defenseman awards in S75. Surely the winners of the Alexis Metzler (best defensive defenseman trophy) have good ratios, right? S75 was the year that Eric famously put up the overall league record, with an 8/103 (7.8%) ratio. The awards voters definitely got that one correct. Ongo Gablogian won the award in S76 with an 11/75 (14.7%) ratio. Kristians Mikelis won the award in S77 with a 13/78 (16.7%) ratio. Perhaps the biggest outlier in this set, Dieter Fruhstruck won the award with a 20/37 (54.1%) giveaway-to-takeaway ratio. This one is a headscratcher, and shows that his 253 shot blocks held much more weight in the decision. This one had me thinking that takeaways were a completely ignored stat, but that notion gets thrown out of the window by Matthias. He won last season's award as the league leader in takeaways. His overall ratio was 17/122 (14%). 

While Ty Justice's 17% ratio is worse than 4 of the last 5 Metzler winners, recording 100 takeaways in a season is no easy feat. My verdict is that Justice is out of the running for the Ideen Fallah Award, a favorite for the Quilha Agante award, and a contender for the Alexis Metzler Award. 

741 words

@Justice @Vandy your players are a significant part of this article Smile

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#2

Yiss my greatness <3





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#3

Approved @Yagoyi @Ara

Tibuk Soonika - G - Tampa Bay Barracuda| Portal Page
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#4

should be illegal to be as hottie as @Yagoyi

artermis,Feb 2 2017, 04:11 PM Wrote:9gag pretty lit tho
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