Analyzing Fantasy Picks
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![]() Registered Posting Freak
Well I accidentally lost like 400 words I already wrote up so now I gotta remember what I wrote.
Basically, while I won my group last year, I know nothing about fantasy and am usually terrible at it and have no idea who I ever want to pick. Last year I basically just took who other people told me to. This year I wanted to try a different approach and so I came up with a new metric to help me by keeping track of everyone's picks in every group. I guess wisdom of the masses is a thing, though I know it isn't guaranteed to work. Just cause everyone picks someone doesn't mean they will actually also do well. Still, I wanted to do this and see if it worked well. I will sort the below list by the metric I call adjusted average rank, which is basically everyones average rank but then if someone wasnt picked in a group, that is treated as being pick 49, just so that not being picked actually affects the average ranking. Otherwise being picked highly in a few leagues but not at all in most leagues would push someone right to the top. I will still list both numbers though anyway! I am not going to give details on every pick anyone ever made, but the full list will still be below! Also, this is technically not final yet, some groups still have 1-2 picks left and then there is group 15, which somehow has only made 36 picks. I am not sure what they are doing. Some bonus facts first: Only 20 different players have been picked in every group (so far) which seemed very low to me definitely! By this metric, group 10 has been the most efficient group in terms of picking people that everyone else is also picking, while group 20 has been the worst. My group, group 7 was the 2nd best group, so definitely some tough opponents in there. Group 20.... was wild. They picked a record FIVE people that only their group picked. There was only one other group who even had more than two such people. And of the top five players that weren't picked in EVERY group, THREE of those five were not taken in group 20, leaving some amazing people to trade if someone wanted to. Without further ado: Overall rank - Name - Average rank - Average adjusted rank - number of groups picked in 1 Jae-ik Barron 1.06 1.06 31 Barron was the consensus number one pick this season, with 29 groups taking him as the 1st overall and just twice someone else. He really was the prime player! 2 Kristian Seppanen 2.84 2.84 31 In the two groups that Barron didn't get picked, Seppanen went 1oa. The lowest he was picked was 6th overall. Really great numbers! 3 Ho Lee-Smokes 4.42 4.42 31 This was important for me personally as I had the third overall pick and I was quite happy to see I made the correct choice (by my own metric) in the end even if it was close. 4 Westley Kirkpatrick 4.68 4.68 31 Close behind Smokes for third, but Kirkpatrick had a few lower outliers more that put him behind, such as being taken 14th overall in group 31. A big steal there! 5 Logan Webb 7.55 7.55 31 Another big step here towards Logan Webb, who went as high as 2nd and as low as 19th (in aforementioned group 20 of course). 6 Furious Chicken 7.74 7.74 31 Close behind is Chicken who is the last person with an adverage rank under 10. 7 Jiggle E. Puff 10.55 10.55 31 With my second round pick, I was able to pick up Jiggle E. Puff who somehow fell to 14 in our group and 28 in another, but still his overall has him 7th best so I feel like I got a real steal at 14th overall in my draft! 8 Troy McClure 12.29 12.29 31 9 Ace Lightning 13.68 13.68 31 10 Simo Jaaskelainen 13.97 13.97 31 11 Trevor Lahey 14.71 14.71 31 12 Jaden Tanner 15.13 15.13 31 13 Ubba Lodbrok 15.81 15.81 31 14 Dominik Winters 17.35 17.35 31 Winters ended up on my team as well, I got him at 19th overall and he is 14th in this list, so another decent pick I think, though he fell a lot in some other groups still. 15 Elena Maximova 18.13 18.13 31 16 Tony Soprano 20.32 20.32 31 17 Froya Solberg 22.39 22.39 31 18 Guy Incognito 18.44 22.39 27 The first player to not be picked in all groups! We obviously see that his average rank was higher than the two previous but he was not picked up in four different groups. If you are in those groups, i think picking him up makes a ton of sense! 19 ATL Goalies 22.65 22.65 31 The top goalie team in the league, Atlanta was killing it and was also picked in every group and as high as 10th overall! 20 Sydney Shaw 21.52 23.29 29 21 Jani Manty 24.18 26.58 28 22 Activity Check 25.62 27.13 29 23 SFP Goalies 27.65 27.65 31 24 Jarrod Lakemore 23.81 27.87 26 25 TBB Goalies 28.19 28.19 31 With SFP in 23rd and TBB in 25th we see the next cluster of goalie teams and they are still picked in every group as well. Cool to see! 26 Billy Herrington 27.53 28.23 30 27 Johnny Wagner-Svenson 23.64 31.00 22 28 Xavier Beausoleil 28.88 32.77 25 29 Daniel Grumathan 30.52 32.90 27 30 Zedward Williams 22.84 32.97 19 31 Celeste Desjardins 32.33 34.48 27 32 Max Carnage 34.19 36.10 27 33 NOL Goalies 34.08 36.97 25 I was very hesitant in my group between either picking NOLA or Seattle goalies and I picked NOLA and in the end, I (barely) seem to have made the correct decision, at least by this metric! 34 Jaromir Jagrbomb 29.79 37.23 19 35 Mikkel Enevoldsen 29.18 38.13 17 36 SEA Goalies 35.88 38.42 25 37 Sonja Solberg 34.87 38.52 23 38 MAN Goalies 35.83 39.23 23 39 Betzee Nickelback 23.83 39.26 12 40 Georg N'Zola 31.47 39.39 17 41 CGY Goalies 36.05 39.81 22 42 Will Nuck 30.07 39.84 15 43 Oskar Scholz 37.05 41.68 19 44 PHI Goalies 38.50 42.23 20 45 Sad Ketchup 28.90 42.52 10 46 Prince Marius 38.72 43.03 18 47 Lily Jin Morrow 33.45 43.48 11 48 Florian Soderberg-Motyla 35.08 43.61 12 49 Dan Johnston 31.44 43.90 9 50 Oliver Castillon 39.94 44.32 16 51 Mercedes Bayle 38.17 44.81 12 52 Juan Tymer 36.20 44.87 10 53 Dunkler Sowerwine 23.80 44.94 5 54 Kal Akar Kekkonen 36.50 44.97 10 55 Langston Hardison-Laurent 36.11 45.26 9 56 Jussi Mutou 34.14 45.65 7 57 Will Tomlander 41.08 45.68 13 58 Gnabe Dabson 39.73 45.71 11 59 Rowan O'Beirne 15.00 45.71 3 This is an odd one too. O'Beirne was only taken in three groups, but in two of them he went in the top 10, I genuinely can't explain it! 60 Cale Salad 28.80 45.74 5 61 Alexandros Mograine 37.89 45.77 9 62 Willow Soderberg-Snooks 25.75 46.00 4 63 TEX Goalies 31.40 46.16 5 64 WPG Goalies 35.67 46.42 6 65 Brooklyn Physt 29.75 46.52 4 66 LAP Goalies 38.00 46.52 7 67 Leo Roze 31.25 46.71 4 68 Marek Carda 25.67 46.74 3 69 Levin Schattenaxt 40.29 47.03 7 70 Chris Valentine 42.44 47.10 9 71 Jay Bryzi 32.00 47.35 3 72 Thomas Sawschuk 39.00 47.39 5 73 Leonard Wood 26.00 47.52 2 74 Dag-Otto Bjorntjanst 40.20 47.58 5 75 Jamie Fraser 5.00 47.58 1 This is probably the single biggest reach of anyone. Fraser was picked 5th overall in group 22 and was not picked by any other group. His own player perhaps? I am not sure. But even then, you could have just gotten him in the last round! 76 Slava-Ukraini Heroyam-Slava 29.50 47.74 2 77 BUF Goalies 42.50 47.74 6 78 Philippe-Eko Eel 13.00 47.84 1 79 CHI Goalies 32.50 47.94 2 80 Adam Prpich 32.50 47.94 2 81 Micoolis Gonnawinthecup 16.00 47.94 1 82 Gordon McFisherman 17.00 47.97 1 83 NEW Goalies 42.75 48.19 4 84 Oranj Konhe 25.00 48.23 1 85 Kaarlo Koivunen 25.00 48.23 1 86 Jack McCarthy 27.00 48.29 1 87 Shadow Fenix 38.50 48.32 2 88 Marton Diehm 42.00 48.32 3 89 Viktor Hargreeves 39.00 48.35 2 90 Nathan Cormier 30.00 48.39 1 91 Pork Tenderloin 40.00 48.42 2 92 Johanna Krakow 32.00 48.45 1 93 MON Goalies 43.33 48.45 3 94 Shawn Pawn 40.50 48.45 2 95 Noah Smith 32.00 48.45 1 96 Aumy Junior II 34.00 48.52 1 97 Bongo 41.50 48.52 2 98 John Peanut 37.00 48.61 1 99 Filip Svatos 38.00 48.65 1 100 Max Belcher 39.00 48.68 1 101 Kevin Kim 40.00 48.71 1 102 Literally Wizard 41.00 48.74 1 103 Andren Akerson 46.33 48.74 3 104 Campbell Fishermann 42.00 48.77 1 105 Antonio Flusso 44.00 48.84 1 106 Robo Sven 45.00 48.87 1 107 Violet Stoica 45.00 48.87 1 108 Koenig Wolf 46.00 48.90 1 And there you have it! ![]() ![]() Registered S14, S26, S37 Challenge Cup Champion ![]() Registered Posting Freak ![]() Winnipeg Aurora Jack of All Trades
But I picked Wendolene Ramsbottom first overall
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Credit to enigmatic, Merica, tweedledunn, and jaypc8237 for sigs ![]() Fantasy League Manager Posting Freak
This makes me incredibly nostalgic for the seasons that I did a very similar analysis.
I really like the additional comments you added for notable picks. ![]() Registered Posting Freak ![]() Registered Raptors Captain and Czech Janitor ![]() SHL GM gnomes are our future ![]() Registered Raptors Captain and Czech Janitor ![]() Registered Member
I had to do a double take when I saw Jiggle E Puff still on the board with my 4th pick
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