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SHL Expansion Potential Locations Summary
#1
(This post was last modified: 12-31-2018, 06:20 AM by majesiu.)

While filling the Expansion GM application (though without much hope for success) I was a bit stuck at the Potential team name: position in the questionnaire. Being from Europe it's a nice moment to expand knowledge about North American cities and what suitable locations could get a team in the SHL. While we obviously don't need to follow market needs and whether the city could maintain the team with a hefty payroll, it ads yet another nice immersion layer to the league.

Let's start with a visual view:

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So Crowdy in North East, but it makes sense due to the high density of population there. Similarly with the West, but the Central with just Texas and South East outside of West Kendall is mostly vacant and could easily accommodate two more teams.

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The Anaheim Outlaws and the Lethbridge Lions aren't there because both I couldn't find the logos and they are in the state of flux since we don't whether they are to stay, to be canceled or replaced depending on SMJHL needs in the future. Anyway, they wouldn't be likely location for the draft anyway - for Outlaws we have two SHL California teams already (one in LA) and Lethbridge is both too small and West Canada area is already congested with teams.

Let's go through the list metropolitan areas by population, forgive me ignoring countries outside of US & Canada, but I don't think they are quite fit Ice Hockey league expansion.
No., Area, Population
Blue - already in the league, Green - location I like and could be used as expansion, Orange - nah, to crowdy/doesn't fit/have team nearby
1. New York City - 20,182,305 -  Rage
2. Los Angeles - 13,340,068 -  Panthers Outlaws

3. Chicago - 9,551,031 - ???
4. Dallas–Fort Worth - 7,102,796 -  Renegades
5. Houston - 6,656,947 - ???
6. Toronto - 6,116,725 -  Stars  
7. Washington - 6,097,684 - ???
8. Philadelphia - 6,069,875 - ???

9. Miami - 6,012,331 -  Platoon
10. Atlanta - 5,710,795 - ???
11. Boston - 4,774,321 -  Wolfpack
12. San Francisco - 4,656,132 -  pride
13. Phoenix - 4,574,531 - ???
14. Inland Empire - 4,489,159 - nearby  Outlaws  Panthers
15. Detroit - 4,302,043 - Falcons
16. Montreal - 4,045,877 -  Militia
17. Seattle - 3,733,580 -  Riot
18. Minneapolis–St. Paul - 3,524,583 -  Chiefs

19. San Diego - 3,299,521 - ???
20. Tampa Bay Area - 2,975,225 - ???
21. Denver - 2,814,330 -  Raptors
22. St. Louis - 2,811,588 - Scarecrows
23. Baltimore - 2,797,407 - ???
24. Vancouver - 2,509,942 - Whalers
25. Charlotte - 2,426,363 - ???
Okay plenty of locations without a team, so let's speed up and fill the remaining locations that fit the central/mid-east location criteria and rest of cities that are already in the league.
29. Pittsburgh - 2,353,045 - ???
31. Cincinnati - 2,157,719 - ???
32. Las Vegas - 2,114,801 - ???
33. Kansas City - 2,087,471 - ???
37. Indianapolis - 1,988,817 ???

So the list ended here, let's dig out rest:
Edmonton - 1,358,345 -  Blizzard
Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY Metro Area - 1,136,642 -  Stampede
Winnipeg - 794,067 -  Jets
Hamilton - 778,489 - Steelhawks
Halifax - 416,824 - raiders
Anchorage - 399,790 - Armada
Kelowna - 195,305 - Knights
Lethbridge - 92,730 - Lions
Calgary - 30,214,303 -  Dragons


Okay, we made it! With plenty of good locations: Chicago, Houston, Washington, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Phoenix, San Diego, Tampa Bay Area, Baltimore, Charlotte, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Las Vegas, Kansas City, and Indianapolis are robust locations and have one thing in common - they are in the States, but is something we should be worried and try to find suitable Canadian location?

To answer that question let's compare SHL vs NHL in terms of Cities distribution:
League CAN/US Percentage of US Teams
NHL 7/24 77%
SHL 5/9 64%
SMJHL 4/6 60%
SHL & SMJHL 9/15 62.5%
Basically, the only location that makes some sense in the North is the Ottawa–Gatineau (1,323,783 population) and maybe Quebec City (800,296). An interesting scenario could be the swap of some big cities from SMJHL (Montreal, Detroit, Denver, Saint Louis) to SHL and replacing them with some fresh locations. But because it would be a much bigger process and hard to execute even from historic statistic purpose I think simply giving new teams to fresh cities is the most viable solution. And looking at above-mentioned comparison the two teams from the US makes the most sense, for now, it would bring the percentage of US teams up to the ~69%.

I have a clear theme I'm working on whether I get a team here or not, so won't be revealing any details for now, but it should easily work out with any city, as it's rather universal. Since I want to do one more section let's go with the easiest choice here and select the two biggest locations for the expansion Chicago and Houston.

Proposed Realignment
Since we didn't have any details about it yet it should be rather easy, because we are evolving from 14 to 16 teams so simple solution that is doable in the sim (which is limited to two conferences system with 1-3 division - sadly it's not OOTP 19 where you can create any league imaginable: eg. 3 conferences, 5 divisions, fully customized playoffs etc.) so the likeliest solution would be something like this:
Eastern Conference
Great Lakes Division
Minnesota Chiefs Chiefs
Toronto Stars Stars
Hamilton Steelhawks  Steelhawks
Chicago Team

The Friendship Division
West Kendall Platoon Platoon
Buffalo Stampede Stampede
Manhattan Rage Rage
New England Wolfpack  Wolfpack

Western Conference
Twin Peaks Division
Edmonton Blizzard Blizzard
Winnipeg Jets Jets
Calgary Dragons Dragons
Seattle Riot Riot

CalTex Division
Texas Renegades Renegades
Los Angeles Panthers Panthers
San Francisco Pride pride
Houston Team

It's even easy to schedule 50 games season again - 6 games vs same Division (18 total), 4 vs rest of the Conference (16 total) and 2 vs rest of the league (16 total). Divisions seem to quite balanced too, with teams that can be said as being in their contention window and some more in the middle of the rebuilding process.

16 teams are actually quite limiting too since you can't create a balanced three division/conference system and it's kind of moot to create 6/5/5 Spread, because of scheduling,  but well, it's interesting:
The True North Division
Toronto Stars Stars
Hamilton Steelhawks  Steelhawks
Winnipeg Jets Jets
Edmonton Blizzard Blizzard
Calgary Dragons Dragons

Coast to Coast to Coast Division
Seattle Riot Riot
Los Angeles Panthers Panthers
San Francisco Pride pride  
Texas Renegades Renegades
West Kendall Platoon Platoon
Houston Team

Rust/Steel Belt Division
Minnesota Chiefs Chiefs
Buffalo Stampede Stampede
Manhattan Rage Rage
New England Wolfpack  Wolfpack
Chicago Team

Purely hypothetical, but fun nonetheless to see the potential of the new rivalries. The schedule could be 5x6 and 10x2 (4x6, 5x2, 5*3-4 in other division - yeah it's tricky...). While True North is likely the bloodbath with premier games every week, expansion teams get slightly easier divisions to start their existence. It's all based on current outlook and like in real life can change even as soon as next season, so not really a great idea to fixate too much on.

I realize there were plenty of similar articles recently, but before I choose the location I'd love to hear what do you think and whether we should get two USA teams, the split 1/1 and whether big locations should get a priority.


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#2

Good work as always Maj.

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#3

inhales


OTTAWA TEAM

exhales


good article though
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#4

For the record San Francisco is about 500 miles from the Inland Empire. Los Angeles and Anaheim aren’t in the same county so honestly I wouldn’t pair them together. As the same city. Good work outside of that I just wanted to make those notes.

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#40 Niclas Wastlund - W - VANCOUVER WHALERS Whalers / TORONTO NORTH STARS Stars
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#5

Great article Maj.

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RIP Dangel. See you on the other side, brother
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#6

12-30-2018, 09:23 PMWasty Wrote: For the record San Francisco is about 500 miles from the Inland Empire. Los Angeles and Anaheim aren’t in the same county so honestly I wouldn’t pair them together. As the same city. Good work outside of that I just wanted to make those notes.

Good call, that was supposed to be the other LA team - the Panthers , because it's 50 miles from LA to Riverside (Inland Empire is defined as Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metro Area in the census).

While Los Angeles and Anaheim aren't in the same county they are in the same metro area (defined as Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA Metro Area in the census) it would be a bit of an overkill to have two teams so close to each other anyway when we have so many other viable locations.


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#7

12-31-2018, 06:27 AMmajesiu Wrote:
12-30-2018, 09:23 PMWasty Wrote: For the record San Francisco is about 500 miles from the Inland Empire. Los Angeles and Anaheim aren’t in the same county so honestly I wouldn’t pair them together. As the same city. Good work outside of that I just wanted to make those notes.

Good call, that was supposed to be the other LA team - the  Panthers , because it's 50 miles from LA to Riverside (Inland Empire is defined as Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metro Area in the census).

While Los Angeles and Anaheim aren't in the same county they are in the same metro area (defined as Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA Metro Area in the census) it would be a bit of an overkill to have two teams so close to each other anyway when we have so many other viable locations.

I mean every major sport has a team now in LA and playing out of Anaheim so it’s not too much of a stretch imo.

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#40 Niclas Wastlund - W - VANCOUVER WHALERS Whalers / TORONTO NORTH STARS Stars
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#8

If someone makes a Canadian team outside of Ottawa or QC, I'll lose it looool

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#9

Great read
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#10

6m peeps and there's people who want Platoon to move. Suggadiiiiik

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