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S45 SMJHL Season Journey
#1
(This post was last modified: 02-05-2019, 10:08 PM by Nerio. Edit Reason: Minor clarification in notes )

2127 words, lots of excel/research/web fun, first media 2x bonus (other medias were graded during double media bonus)

Today we are going to look at how all 10 of the SMJHL teams trended across the regular season. We will look at the highest highs, the lowest lows, and the consistently average. The stat we are looking at is how many games away from a .500 record the team is, essentially a function of total points out of possible points translated to games, and how that changes throughout the regular season.

I did this for the prospect season/tournament that occured before the start of the season and liked how the data visualization turned out so here I am at it again, hopefully with a few improvements while reviewing the SMJHL’s 45th season.

I’ll be going through each team one by one, and I’ll include a shot of the whole league at the end if you want to see it all together (along with something a little more interactive).

Notes:
The Y Axis refers to games above or below .500
The X Axis refers to the day of the season, so that every increment is essentially a historical slice
There is no normalization here for 3 point games via overtime losses, so .500 is simply earning 1 point per game. Normalizing it would essentially move the 0 line on the Y-axis slightly, but the trends for each team would remain identical so I decided to keep it simple.


#1 Falcons Detroit Falcons | 31-17-2 | 64 Points | 160GF 146GA

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Finishing at the top of the regular season, we have the Detroit Falcons. Detroit demonstrated consistent growth by routinely putting together two to three game win streaks early on in the season. They did not lose back to back games until the halfway point of the season, and still managed to earn a point in that span. The second half of their season became visibly more streaky. Instead of winning two and losing one, they swapped to winning four and losing two for a bit. This streaky play had them moving up and down in the standings, with them dipping as low as 4th place after a four game losing streak. They finished strong however, with a six game winning streak, giving them enough points for 1st place after tie breakers.


#2 Armada Anchorage Armada | 30-16-4 | 64 Points | 158GF 123GA

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The defensively sound Anchorage Armada also had a stellar regular season with their second place finish. At a glance, their season was essentially repeating a rotation of win streaks followed by plateaus. It kind of resembles steps on a staircase. They didn’t zoom out to an early lead like Detroit did, finishing 2-3 in their opening five games, including three losses to the Kelowna Knights. They played one last game against Kelowna for their 6th game of the season, and used that as an opportunity to bounce back to that .500 record. From that point onward, they never looked back. Including that win, they went on a six game winning streak, starting their cycle of winning and plateauing that would last the remainder of the season. Multiple six game win streaks paired with small winning and losing streaks resulted in Anchorage to make giant jumps, and they made it as close as they possibly could to the top of the standings without actually being there by the end of the season.


#3 Knights Kelowna Knights | 30-17-3 | 63 Points | 176GF 157GA

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Contrary to the 2nd place Armada, the Kelowna Knights were an offensive powerhouse throughout the season, which was certainly part of their journey towards finishing in 3rd place. After losing their first game of the season, Kelowna immediately bounced back and refused to have a losing record again for the rest of the season. Kelowna’s growth throughout the season mirrors Detroit’s in a way, just with a few less steep inclines. Kelowna was not streaky at all in the first 80% of the season, with their longest streaks only lasting two games. They put together several two game winning streaks and slightly less two game losing streaks, keeping their point total on a steady incline. Despite this, the Knights were still only in 6th place with nine games left in the regular season. This is where Kelowna’s “slow and steady wins the race” mentality shifted however. They went on an 8-1 tear in their final nine games, catapulting them all the way to 3rd place. Kelowna finished just a single point out of a three way tie for first.

Since Kelowna is my team, here are a couple fun facts I discovered during this investigation:
Kelowna was the only team this season to not lose three games in a row
Kelowna played in the most games that ended in the Overtime period (not shootouts) with three, tied with St. Louis.
Kelowna won all three of their games that ended in Overtime.


#4 Whalers Vancouver Whalers 29-17-4 62 Points 166GF 153GA

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Fuck the Whalers

Now with that out of the way… The Whalers had some pretty remarkable stretches of play throughout the season that we can see here and had a strong 4th place finish (side note, it is interesting that only 2 points separated 1st and 4th place). Their start was extremely strong, and Vancouver found itself sitting in 1st place about a third of the way through the regular season. It was at that point though that their winning and losing effectively flip flopped in terms of their frequency, and the middle third of their season was spent slowly falling back down again. The final third of their season started in the middle of a five game winning streak however, and they resumed their winning ways with two more four game winning streaks before the end of the season. Where Anchorage’s season almost looks like stairs, Vancouver’s kind of resembles really awkward, flattened stairs that would probably hurt to walk on.  


#5 Militia Montreal Militia | 29-19-2 | 60 Points | 138GF 141GA
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Finishing our close top five teams, we have the Montreal Militia. The first half of the season for Montreal was extremely promising, constantly finding themselves in 1st place. They had multiple huge winning streaks throughout the first half, only to be brought back down a bit with a 4 game losing streak. They got back into their winning ways shortly after, though not at the same pace as their season opening. Despite that, they were poised to make a run for 1st place, but ended the season with a three game losing streak. Those three losses were actually against the three teams below them in the standings at the time, and each those teams finished the season with a multi-game winning streaks thanks to their wins over Montreal. As a result Montreal dropped all the way to 5th place, though still just four points shy of the top spot.


#6 Scarecrows St. Louis Scarecrows | 28-21-1 | 57 Points | 160GF 138GA

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Finishing in 6th place, we have the St. Louis Scarecrows. St. Louis was the final team to finish with a record above .500. Their season as a whole was very streaky, consistently stringing together three to four games streaks with rare single wins or losses in between. St. Louis’s early season started with some initial upward growth, but quickly fell down with a four game losing streak. From there they started their season of streaks, though with a tendency to have longer winning streaks than losing ones, resulting in consistent upward growth. They finished the season with eight streaks of wins or losses that lasted three games or more, with several two game streaks as well. Interestingly, St. Louis finished with the 2nd best goal differential even though their positioning in the standings is well below that.


#7 Raptors Colorado Raptors | 22-23-5 | 49 Points | 137GF 146GA

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The Colorado Raptors, or as I like to refer to them as The Smebs & Co., are the first of our teams that finished with a below .500 record. Colorado started the season on fire, going 6-1-1 in their first eight games, which had them clear ahead in first place throughout most of those initial games. At this point, they cemented a streaky pattern that would remain with them for the rest of the season. Four game losing streak, 4-1 in next five, five game losing streak, 6-2 in next eight… you start to see where all these peaks and valleys are coming from. Still after that, they sat at fifth place with a third of the season left and with plenty of opportunity to climb since the standings were so close. The remainder of their season contained multiple long losing streaks with only a single matching winning streak, resulting in Colorado dipping below .500 in their final game of the season.


#8 Outlaws Anaheim Outlaws | 20-28-2 | 42 Points | 138GF 156GA

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We have the first of our new expansion teams finishing at 8th with the Anaheim Outlaws. Perhaps coming into the season with low expectations, Anaheim actually had a relatively positive start to this season. They got above .500 relatively early in the season, and were determined to stay there for a while. They seemed to consistently bounce back from losing streaks with equivalent winning streaks. This did not hold up into the final third of the season however, where their record started a rather quick plunge was caused by only putting together one win at a time sandwiched between multi game losing streaks. This plunge was the largest from any team during the back half of the season, and as a result Anaheim finished in 8th.


#9 raiders Halifax Raiders | 16-27-7 | 39 Points | 125GF 158GA

[Image: UCUWE1A.png]

In 9th place, we have the Halifax Raiders. Halifax’s season started off in an extremely notable way by winning only one game out of their first twenty. This is obviously a very devastating start to the season, and is ultimately why Halifax finished down in 9th place. To be completely honest though, Halifax’s second half of the season is extremely promising. They managed to recover from their nose dive, and if you isolate the second half of the season they actually played above .500 hockey. Their upward trend during this stretch nearly matches that of some of the top six teams this season. Though they did finish the season with a win, it occurred right after a tough three game skid, firmly solidifying their spot in 9th place.


#10 Lions Lethbridge Lions | 15-32-3 | 33 Points | 131GF 171GA

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Filling in the final spot is the second of our new expansion teams, the Lethbridge Lions. Lethbridge had a similar start to Halifax, winning only three out of their first eighteen. Lethbridge did not collect any overtime loss points along the way like Halifax though, so their win percentage remained similar. Also similar to Halifax, Lethbridge plateaued a bit during the middle of the season. Lethbridge’s plateau lasted longer however, and ended up turning downward again for the final third of the season, courtesy of a four and then later a five game losing streak. Lethbridge ultimately swapped places with Halifax during this part of the season, and finished in last place.


The League

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Here we have a full picture of the entire league without any one team being isolated. This shows just how tight the top teams were this season; I couldn’t even fit the team logos next to their respective lines without overlapping them. I definitely can recall constantly monitoring the standings to see if we had moved up or down and it always felt so close. Truly an amazing season, especially as a first timer here on SHL, so I hope everyone enjoyed it as much as I did.


Bonus!

While putting these together I constantly found myself flipping back and forth between two teams to see how the lines changed. I eventually built something that made it easier and if anyone enjoyed any part of this, I think you’ll enjoy this too. It’s not the prettiest thing but you can click on the team icons to isolate their individual graph, and switch between whichever teams you choose. Hope you enjoy!

https://cv1cq1.axshare.com/s45.html

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#2

Nice work!

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#3

Excellent stuff!

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#4

Dangit Bobby that's how you do an excellent article.



Character Page RD- Quarterback
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Retired players:
-Toki Wartooth
-Nathan Explosion btw
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#5

Skree
Falcons
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#6

I never saw this, but this is amazing

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