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S47 SHL Draft - Round 1 Analysis (2x Media)
#1

With a little bit of time to stew in the offseason, including another thrilling international season, we now sit down to take a bit of an in-depth look at the first round selections, their SMJHL and WJC contributions thus far, and the type of player they could shape up to be in their first few seasons in a SHL sweater once they make the leap to the big time.

1. Jets Winnipeg Jets - Jax Duggan

The Winnipeg Jets take the Canadian offensive defenseman first overall, and he's certainly got potential. Good defensemen are rare, and any chance to spring for one is a slam dunk. Among rookies, Duggan was the number one defenseman in scoring, holding to his archetype as he picked up 4 goals and 18 assists in the regular season. He gave and took several shots like a defenseman, though, laying down 80 hits and sparing his keeper from 40 pucks during the regular season. His shot blocking picked up speed in the offseason WJC, sacrificing himself for 31 denials in 27 round-robin games, with his goal-scoring matching, pitching in 8 goals and 10 assists.

His discipline will need quite a bit of work, either in foresight of who to go for or skills to make his checking cleaner. At 66 PIM, he tied for sixth in the J. Strength will be a career-long issue, though his positioning and playmaking should help even things out. At his pace, he should crack the Jets pretty fast and make an instant impact upon arrival.

2. Barracuda Tampa Bay Barracuda (via New England Wolfpack) - Gunnar Söderberg

An intriguing choice for the Barracuda to spring for a forward who didn't have a flashy rookie season. A playmaker by way of Sweden, his build certainly makes him a mobile threat to find the sniper for a one-timer. Or perhaps his stats are more a symptom of being drafted into a deep organization like the Kelowna Knights, this past season's Laurifer Trophy winners and Four Star Cup runners-up. His high defensive capabilities certainly make for interesting wing play as well and might also fit a two-way mold. Checking doesn't look like it'll be part of his game, so he'll be very reliant on positioning in all three areas and attempting to dominate the passing lanes.

Don't let the lack of big, class-leading figures deceive. If he sticks his nose to the grindstone for a season or two longer, he'll be fearsome on that Kelowna top line. Or he just might blow up onto the professional scene, considering Tampa might bring him up sooner if the need arises.

3. syndicate Chicago Syndicate - Corey Kennedy

The second defenseman off the board, Corey Kennedy offers a similar balance of defensive commitment and point support. He doesn't come with flashy numbers, either, though his defensive stats show some promise. With 33 hits and 37 shots blocked, as well as taking fewer penalties with only 24 on the season, he's got promise to be a presence on the ice. Pitching in 6 goals and 10 assists, he's got respectable offensive threats to boot. This will help considerably as he also eschews the checking game, though he will likely need a partner willing to hit for both of them. He's got the makings of a fourth forward on the ice with the awareness to get back. Watch out for him in his second season with the Outlaws in juniors.

4. pride San Francisco Pride - Filip Zadina

An offensive forward who knows the value of fundamentals, the Czech winger made a relative splash from an average of 11.49 minutes per game during the regular season, picking up 7 goals and 7 assists, 29 hits and throwing 66 shots on-net, all while only getting two bouts in the penalty box. He played a decent part in the Scarecrows' Four Star Cup championship In the WJC, he picked up 7 goals and 5 assists in 27 games, threw 40 hits, took 45 shots, and only served a single minor during the round-robin stage. In the medal rounds, he pulled through big for Czechia, contributing 3 goals and 6 assists during the three-game streak to gold. He's already tasted gold twice and will likely be hungry to accomplish more once he has enough time to develop. For the organization he's headed into, that may be sooner rather than later.

5. Barracuda Tampa Bay Barracuda (via Texas Renegades) - Espen Knutsen Jr

A playmaker center for the Detroit Falcons this past season, the Norwegian also has a solid fundamental base under him defensively as well as dishing the puck. Tied for sixth among his classmates in scoring last season, with 4 goals and 17 assists, including 2 goals and 7 assists on the power play unit, he's been a reliable producer. Even more so after a season to develop, chalking 5 goals and 8 assists for Norway at the WJC. He'll need some cover out there as he's similarly allergic to checking wars, though his skillset shows a guy who first takes care of the puck, then looks to find some friendly tape to target. Knutsen will be a major factor for the Falcons next season and may similarly be a call-up to the Barracuda in season three.

6. Platoon West Kendall Platoon - Tony Ford

An offensive defenseman out of the United Kingdom, Tony Ford is similarly geared as a fourth forward on the ice who chills by the point, then gets back in transition to the defensive end. So far, he's played much bigger defense than offense for the Anchorage Armada. He pitched in 3 goals and 7 assists during the junior regular season, though laid down 43 hits and blocked 51 shots. He shifted to a bit more of a personal defensive game at the WJC, scoring 4 goals, 2 assists, 32 hits and 4 shots blocked in 27 round-robin contests. Not too bad for another check-averse player, though he'll need someone who will get into board scrums if he won't. All in all, though, not too bad a choice, and again, good defensemen are hard to pick up through the Draft. West Kendall may be getting a gem if he sticks with the program.

7. Blizzard Edmonton Blizzard - Julio Tokolosh

An offensive forward bleeding the Stars and Bars, the right winger from the Colorado Raptors looks to dangle opponents, make the lot look like benders and dish off to a friendly to finish them or occasionally take the shot himself. Though not splashy during his debut junior season at 6 goals and 2 assists, he got a decent volume on net at 74 shots. A few of those go his way and it's a different look. He set a better scoring pace during the WJC, with 1 goal and 5 assists in just over half as many contests. He got a little dirtier playing for country, throwing 21 hits in the WJC vs 13 during the regular season. He looks more like a playmaker for the time being, though his scoring potential is still there to fulfill.

8. Barracuda Tampa Bay Barracuda - Cullen Gray

It was quite interesting for the Barracuda to hold off on picking up the Canadian winger from the Whalers until their third selection this draft. Gray led all rookies in scoring during the regular season, notching 13 goals and 22 assists and easily getting into the Rookie of the Year conversation. From 127 shots as well, this sniper takes his chances and takes the old advice to just get it on the net without being too fancy about it. He picked up an even faster pace at the WJC, putting up 10 goals and 14 assists for just under a point-per-game pace for the bronze medalists. Adjusting for time on ice, he had 1.23 points per 20 during the WJC, though still impressed with 0.81 per 20 for the Whalers his rookie season.

The Barracuda must have needed other roles more before they finally turned to a sniper, though through others needing different strokes more, Tampa Bay might have a good long-term scorer if he sticks with it and they keep him happy. Perhaps some hardware in the days to come could satisfy the recognition itch.

9. Wolfpack New England Wolfpack (vía Calgary Dragons) - Eko van Otter

The Anchorage Armada fielded this Norwegian playmaker in depth and got decent production in his first year. With 6 goals and 9 assists during the regular season, along with 48 hits and 73 shots, he has some ground to gain footing on in his advancement. He was much more accurate during the WJC, scoring 5 goals and 7 assists for Team World in the round-robin stage for the silver medalists. Not too shabby at all for third-line minutes, and it's only the first season. His development is coming along well and we can expect a marked improvement in season two. Even if he doesn't come with quite the scoreboard spinning his classmates have put up, New England is in a phase where he might be closer to the call-up than he realizes. An extra season down wouldn't hurt, though.

10. Specters New Orleans Specters (via Los Angeles Panthers) - Charlie Serpe

Another offensive defenseman, the Western Conference Champions fenced an early star from a pick they acquired from the LA Panthers. The American tied for 8th in scoring among rookies, playing up the playmaker aspect with 1 goal and 19 assists. For Team USA at the WJC, he was all apples, all day with 11 assists in the round-robin stage. He'll step up to defensive duties well enough, though. He notched 38 hits and 40 blocked shots during the regular season for the Scarecrows and blocked 15 shots for the USA during the WJC round-robin stage. Also part of the epidemic of shying away from the physical game, Serpe's more about mobility and protecting the puck until the timing is right. I expect the development of a patient playmaker. Someone who's highlight reel will resemble this gem with a dish to a teammate and a one-timer at the end instead.

11.  Steelhawks Hamilton Steelhawks - Sami Raanta

Part of a highly offensive line in Vancouver, the Finnish center has a flair for the one or two steps before the lamp lights. With a decent shot volume at 71, which resulted in 3 goals to go with 8 assists, and minimizing mistakes at only 6 PIM, it looks like he just needs a more balanced mindset and group to run with as putting his foot forward all the time led to a -11 rating, indicative of a lot of haymakers eaten. Interesting choice for the Steelhawks to go for someone who wasn't quite as attractive by the numbers, though with a build hyper aware of how to play on and off the puck, there's a place out there for him. The Steelhawks will hope and shape to try to fit him in there. In the meantime, it seems he'll need at least two more seasons of formation in the J.

12. Jets Winnipeg Jets (via Toronto North Stars) - Noah Gallagher

This pick was a bit befuddling. On the one hand, the user behind the Irish two-way winger has created two Hall of Fame inductees, including one who was League MVP. The build this time reflects that balance. On the other, those first-season stats look rough for a player developing at his pace, both in the regular season and the WJC. Relatively speaking, he showed up come playoff time, having scored 2 goals and 2 assists with the Scarecrows in the postseason, more than the 1 goal out of 47 games played during the regular season. This is a case where the user is the one they're going after and they hope the stats catch up soon enough. It'll be interesting to see where his development goes from here, considering there's very little room to go down.

13. Barracuda Tampa Bay Barracuda (via Minnesota Chiefs) - Austin Roenick

How did this guy fall all the way down to here? The second-leading scorer among rookies, the Irish sniper from the Lethbridge Lions put on a display in the regular season, with 14 goals, 16 assists, threw 36 hits and put out quite a few shots at 107. Sure, they went all-out offense, though as seen in Sami Raanta's case, it still takes the right guys to make that work, and Roenick was someone who could. The Barracuda loaded up on this draft and were pretty much handed the top two scorers and potential Rookie of the Year candidates. This is the pair you take advantage of when they come of age to jump into the SHL. You keep these guys happy as they develop and they will help you build a playoff mainstay.

14. Barracuda Tampa Bay Barracuda (via Manhattan Rage) - Akashi SixNine

At last, a defensive defenseman! And a scrapper, to boot! 82 hits, 37 shots blocked, 3 goals, 11 assists, and the third-longest rap sheet in the J last season, which included a 1-0 fight record, SixNine brings the physical game many in this first round crop would rather not play. It didn't stop for the Canadian goon in the WJC, either, bringing 37 hits, 39 shots blocked and 42 PIM in just over half the time. Scoring is the obvious number one issue, though with the sorts of players around in recent classes and here, there will be no shortage of players who want to score. SixNine will be a key role player as the physical presence, similar to Zdeno Chara, especially weighing in at 280 lb. This is a build conducive to all things defense, ugly, physical, brutal, and necessary for a balanced unit because someone has to do something about that other guy who wants to hit and make a scene. Tampa definitely could make a scary first line out of this unit if all five develop the way they have.

15. Panthers Los Angeles Panthers (via New Orleans Specters) - Theo Morgan

A sniper from the Vancouver Whalers by way of Canada, Morgan appears as though he'll need at least two more seasons to marinate in juniors. Behind in development and frustrated at several turns in his first season, he was also on the ill-fated second line with Sami Raanta. He did all he could with 4 goals and 3 assists, kept his head down from the refs with only 10 PIM and still put on 66 shots on goal. Going in round one was a confidence boost for a guy who needed it and will need a development boost in the coming days to the J. He'll need to take his time and not fret it too much since the start is not the important part of a player's career as much as the peak of it is. That boost was also necessary as he was not selected for Canada's WJC team. There are few places to go but up and I fully expect him to get a borderline breakout season. His build is certainly conducive to a player who gets where the essential fundamentals lie. If he gets on a line where not everyone is trying to shoot and score, he could be the guy and his linemates would improve as a consequence.

16. Wolfpack New England Wolfpack (via Buffalo Stampede) - Slap McShotty

Finishing out the round, the Wolfpack bolster their center recruiting depth with an American power forward from the Anaheim Outlaws. A grinder rather than a range shooter, contrary to his name, McShotty's game is conducive to grinding in the slot and picking up garbage. Hasn't been quite as flashy as others, with only 2 goals and 3 assists to show for 10 minutes a night, though there's hope yet with a build like this. It opens up chances for him to flex into that physical mold many others in his class dare not touch. If he feels he needs to reinvent himself or rethink going about development, start with improving your defensive play. Development in face-offs helps quite a bit, especially with the third-highest rate in juniors last season at 55.39%, 267 of 482. With rounding out other rough edges, McShotty could be a bit of a later bloomer other teams will wish they had taken.

Final Thoughts

Not that many rookies in this batch who want to get their sweaters dirty and hit. That's perfectly fine for a player like mine. More shy skaters to hit and make them wish they hit the gym more. This is a very finesse focused group, wanting to make the beautiful play or go bar-down from the point. There are simply several who will have to find a good role for them or develop into one where scoring isn't the end-all or the biggest measuring stick. Several also need that diverse cast around them to really highlight their strengths as part of a balanced unit. Three Wayne Gretzkys could never match against a balanced pro forward line these days because a sniper cannot go it alone. Similar principles here. We may be looking at a few who are on the trajectory to keep developing, especially from those users who have been here before. Tampa Bay got quite the haul from this lot. Give it a few seasons and these rookies alone may open a massive playoff window by themselves.

(2904 words)

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