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From contender to bottom feeder: WTF happened to Hamilton?
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(This post was last modified: 05-27-2019, 04:47 PM by hhh81.)

From playoff contender to bottom feeder: What happened to the S47 Hamilton Steelhawks?
By: Harry Hemmert, The Athletic

In S46, the Hamilton Steelhawks had a lot to be proud of. They finished with 60 points, good for fourth in the Eastern Conference, returning them to the playoffs for the first time since S44. They looked like they were on the upswing, complementing their veteran core with an influx of youthful talent. They looked like a serious threat to join Buffalo and Manhattan as the future of the Eastern Conference going into S47. Then tragedy struck.

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We all know what happened next. The Steelhawks won 9 fewer games and scored 28 fewer goals on their way to finishing second to last in the SHL. The question on everyone’s minds is “why?” How could a team poised for success fail this mightily? Is this a setback year, like West Kendall’s in S46, or is it a sign of worse to come? Today, we’ll investigate the team from the net out, to see what may be in Hamilton’s future.


Goalies
Longtime starter and German goalie Geezus Kryyst actually improved his individual numbers this season, seeing his save percentage increase from 0.899 to 0.907 and goals against average decrease from 3.14 to 3.09. He played 44 games each season for Hamilton, but faced 136 more shots this season. While Brado Sando was largely ineffective in his three starts, SMJHL goalie and Steelhawks prospect Aleksi O’Koivu-Volkova was impressive in three call up starts. AOV was able to earn five of a possible 6 points in his starts, nursing a .926 save percentage and a 2.3 GAA. The future and present in net looks secure for Hamilton, so long as Kryyst remains a Steelhawk.

Defense

The mix of veteran defenders and youthful energy failed to make it happen for the Steelhawks. Longtime Steelhawk Ben Dover recently announced he will be retiring after the S48 season, and called for the next generation of Hamilton players to step up. The offensive force from the point had a career worse season, contributing only 24 points, breaking his eight-season 10+ goal streak and a fifteen season streak with at least 30 points. He still played a large role for the Steelhawks, but one has to wonder if his minutes will lessen in his final season, as Hamilton looks to rebuild around a new generation.

Last offseason the Steelhawks added German rearguard Finn Kruger @adamantium  in free agency, leading many to think this team would be one of the stronger blueline groups in the league. While he had a strong individual season (32 points, +10 rating, 23.21 minutes per game, team leading 83 blocked shots), the team never fully jelled defensively. He’ll be asked to continue to be a big presence on the blueline next year, especially with Dover’s retirement and inevitable smaller role.

For the time being, the new face of the blueline in Hamilton has to be Tig Murphy @notorioustig . After a strong three-year career with Detroit of the SMJHL, Murphy now is entering his fourth season with Hamilton. He took a significant step forward in S46, and nearly matched it in S47, leading the Steelhawks blueliners with 34 points. His game doesn’t stand out in any one area; he’s just a well-rounded defender with strong skating, a solid positional game, as well as skill finding open teammates and open nets. Outside of fellow S43 draftee J.P. Gay, there isn’t a lot of physicality on Hamilton’s blueline. Murphy also provides a little of that, and should be a dark horse pick in a few SHL fantasy groups next season. He should see a lot of minutes, and likely be the main checker on his defensive pairing.

Veteran Nour Harrak rounds out the top four. He’s an effective enough second pairing defenseman, though regression has slowed him some. His offensive game is still strong, so expect him to continue to play 20+ minutes with special teams opportunities moving forward next season, at least until he next hits free agency before S49. Like many of the veterans in Hamilton, he’s roughly what he is at this point.

Former standout bruiser J.P. Gay @"JumpierPancakes" is a decent third pairing defender. He doesn’t have much offense to speak of, and his temper tends to get him into trouble sometimes, but he’s shown the ability to take a step back and make the smarter play from time to time. His physical presence seemed to help the young Nikolai Evans acclimate to his new role as a depth SHL player this season. On that note, Evans didn’t have a star studded rookie season, only scoring 11 points in limited minutes. Never shy to shoot, whether it’s his mouth or the puck, Evans’ scoring skill and pedigree was not on display as a rookie. He will get better with time and take on a larger role, even if his TPE development has stagnated a bit recently.

Vegeta Muerto is a depth practice player and nothing more at this point.

Forwards

The shock of the season was the drop in production from Hamilton’s forwards. The S46 top line of Robert Phelps, Angelo Odjick, and Vijanupatan Singh all were over a point per game and 20 goal scorers. Fast forward a season and only Phelps, the team’s superstar and face of the franchise, broke the 20 goal plateau. Odjick and second-line pivot Alexander Zajac both fell off dramatically with their first sub-30 point seasons since S38 and S39, respectively. Unless regression absolutely devastates their physical abilities going into S48, you have to think they’ll bounce back, even a slight bit. Hamilton certainly hopes so, as they may continue to play together on the second line for the Steelhawks, while Singh flanks Phelps.

While the team as a whole did not produce nearly enough offense, it is interesting to see the team did finish with ten players (12 if you count previous production for midseason acquisitions Carter II and Boyka Jr) who scored more than 20 points. This stat is interesting, compared to other Eastern Conference contenders like Buffalo (12, maybe 13), Manhattan (11, maybe 13), Toronto (10), and West Kendall (12, maybe 13). Interestingly, Chicago, New England, and Tampa Bay all had 9 20+ point scorers.

You could assume the depth is there, but the top line scoring was lacking. While that seems to be true, the depth impact was not there for Hamilton. Younger roster players like Dank Boija (S43), Andrew Martin (S43), Donnie Dicks (S45), and ZIvan Zidek (S45) have yet to really make a game changing impact for the Steelhawks. Zidek, previously a lightning rod for controversy, had separated from the team early this year, but has been seen back with the team, practicing and working to get himself back in the lineup. He’s a smooth skating pivot, but has likely been passed up by the franchise talents in the prospect pool (more on that soon). He has an uphill climb to be anything more than an average bottom six player, but stranger things have happened.

Dicks and Boija are fine players, though neither seems suited for top six production at this time. Boija still has some upside and is regularly updating. He could round into form as the uniquely physical playmaker many projected him to be going into his draft. Dicks is a quality locker room presence whose on ice contributions simply don’t line up with his off-ice humanitarianism. The expectations for star scorers going into his juniors and SHL draft positions need to be lowered, though he’ll be a long-term fixture in the Hamilton organization with or without carrying the scoring load. Dicks isn’t going anywhere, folks.

The biggest disappointment might be C/W Andrew Martin. The German forward had begun rounding into form as a versatile scoring weapon in the middle six (as well as in IIHF), but has recently seemed to hit a developmental wall as his agent @Good_Ole_Kimmy  has gone missing. He’ll remain a decent third liner, but anyone connected to the young forward has to be disappointed Martin’s game and development didn’t go further.

As such, with the failure of recent prospects to pay dividends, Hamilton general manager @"ThatDamnMcJesus"  went out and acquired Cameron Carter II from Tampa Bay and Yuri Boyka Jr from Los Angeles to boost the depth scoring. Both were effective pieces, stepping into top six roles for the Steelhawks. Still, it was too little too late to turn around the disappointing start. Hallsy’s hope must be that the pair stays with the team and can continue to give Hamilton two strong scoring lines next season.

Dive into the Stats

Across the board, this season’s Hamilton team performed far below the team from just a season ago. Their goals for dropped by 0.62 goals per game, going from a solid 5th ranking in S46 to 14th in S47. Their power play also was a major weak spot, dropping from a powerful 24.6%, good for third best in the league, to a lowly 15.87%. Only Tampa Bay’s anemic power play was worse in S47. The goals stopped coming, in part because Hamilton stopped shooting. They got the 6th most shots for last season, but were ranked 13th this past season. Their SF/SA went from 6th best in S46 (104.34%) to 13th (89.96%), showing they were no longer controlling possession as they had been able to previously.

As previously stated, the goaltending remained constant or improved slightly this season. Their goals against average dropped by 0.06, jumping them from 14th to 12th. While their penalty kill ranking rose from 14th to 12th, their actual kill percentage dropped from 77.94% to 77.01%. Additionally, they let up more shots, dropping for a steady 9th place in S46 to 13th this past season (31.78 to 33.48 shots against a game). This has not been a good defensive team, whether due to personnel, game planning, or coaching. That needs to change if the team is to improve.
In short, the team was less able to produce offensive chances for themselves, putting more pressure on their defense and goaltending to suppress shots. This additional pressure led to more chances for the other team to score against an overmatched defensive team.

One of the more interesting stats is that, while Hamilton won 9 fewer games this year than last year, they only decreased their regulation/overtime wins only decreased by 3 (21 to 18). In S46, Hamilton had the second most shootout wins in the league, behind only Toronto (7). Was their S46 success due in large part to shootout puck luck? Maybe, but their overall scoring certainly plays a major part in their S47 struggles.

Prospects

Despite this season being a nightmare, there is some hope for the future of the Steelhawks. They used the top two picks in the S46 SHL Entry Draft on defenders Nikolai Evans @ztevans  and Anastasia “Nastya” O’Koivu @Pris . These childhood foes continue to battle on and off the ice, and give an interesting mix on the blueline. Evans has graduated to full time SHL duty this past season, with O’Koivu likely to follow soon. Neither have lived up to the pressures of being top picks, especially compared to the rest of their star studded draft class, as 11 of the 16 first round picks in S46 have surpassed the 600 TPE plateau. Still, they are solid additions to the team’s defensive depth and wonderful locker room presences. While Evans is a smooth, goal scorer at the blueline, Nastya is a strong, physical presence. Don’t let her 5’11”, 165 pound frame fool you; she’ll break your nose or hip with a check in the corners. Unfortunately, that is the end of the defensive prospects for Hamilton. For the rest of the S46 and S47 drafts, Hamilton focused almost exclusively on adding forwards to their prospect pool.

Ignoring severe longshots in Jake Peralta and Gabster TheMagnificent, Brock Emmerton may have a future as a fourth liner. He hasn’t shown much explosiveness on the offensive end, and seems to be primarily a passive, pass-first player. When paired with other players with a strong shot (as he was this past season with Anchorage), he has shown the ability to find open teammates. He is still probably at least two seasons away from the SHL, however.

The gems of the Hamilton prospects have to be a group of four forwards, all drafted in the last two seasons.

The third and oft forgotten S46 first round pick by Hamilton, Kalvins Zvejnieks @Gobbles , might not stand out on the offensive end of the ice, but he makes up for it with a strong defensive game. He’s been a consistently strong earner, media presence, and gritty forward for the Detroit Falcons. In his three seasons in the J, Zvejnieks has won 53.4% of the 3,233 draws he’s taken in the regular season. Despite not showing it so far, I think Zvejnieks may have more of an offensive game than he’s shown in juniors. When he uncaps and joins the Steelhawks, watch out.

Joining Zvejnieks in Hamilton’s trio of recently ranked “Franchise Talents” are centers Aaron Wilson @aaronwilson  and Sami Rieder @Sami . These S47 draftees are linemates for Vancouver of the SMJHL, where they are tasked with providing secondary scoring and taking advantage of mismatches when teams focus on the Cannellini line. So far, Rieder has developed a solid playmaking winger game, which compliments the slick shooting of Wilson at the center position. Both players took major steps forward this season as draft+1 players, and will likely continue to impress in their third juniors’ seasons. They are still at least a season or two away from making a difference at the SHL level, but are the most likely prospects able to fill the eventual hole when Robert Phelps retires or leaves in free agency.

Dale Miller @dmills3, yet another Vancouver forward that will make his way to Hamilton, doesn’t have as much shine as his teammates, but has shown an explosiveness in limited minutes that should help reassure the Whalers and Steelhawks going forward if he can continue to develop. If he makes it to the SHL, he could be an electric scorer. Time will tell if he booms or if he busts, however.

The future in net will fall between Aleksi O’Koivu-Volkova and Detroit goalie Jakub Hasek. Unfortunately, both of their development has stagnated as both veteran users have gone semi/fully inactive. In spot duty, AOV had been very impressive at the SHL level this season, so there’s still hope he can round into form.

Bottom Line

The team’s general manager made it clear they plan to retool and focus on giving the next generation a chance to lead this team. The cupboard is full of top end forward prospects, though there are questions surrounding defense and goalie beyond the current roster. The team in theory has a strong top six forwards, led by superstar Robert Phelps, and a decent top four defensively, alongside a goalie in his prime. They could as easily be a wildcard playoff team next season as draft first overall for S49. Hallsy will need to figure out the best way to align the aging core of the Steelhawks with their younger not-yet-prepared for prime time prospect pool. If he’s successful, Hamilton’s contention window could reopen before too long. While Buffalo looks like they are just entering their competitive window’s prime and likely will lead the Great Lakes Division for the foreseeable future, Toronto is likely going to fall off soon with an aging goalie and a paucity of talented prospects, and Chicago is knee deep in their franchise’s initial building. The chance is there for Hamilton to compete if they can refocus on controlling possession and reduce opponents’ scoring chances.

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WC: 2609 words plus research. Ready for grading!

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#2

cries in bird calls

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#3

05-27-2019, 04:17 PMGood_Ole_Kimmy Wrote: cries in bird calls

He lives?! 

I'm so sorry for what I'm about to post about you, bud.

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#4

Something something hold these Ls uglies

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#5

they didn't draft me 1oa

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#6

This media is great, despite how sad it makes me. Well done.

It seems to me we just ran into a really bad spell of luck and couldn't get out of it. The whole team played like shells of their former selves despite not really losing that much TPE. I expect a bounce back in S48 unless the team gets blown up in the off-season.

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#7

I need to be better. I am disgracing the Gay name

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#8
(This post was last modified: 05-27-2019, 06:05 PM by awils13.)

great read, very interesting
worth noting that @dmills3 created late after the draft, that's why he's behind in tpe, but he's been updating consistently and active on discord
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#9

Nice write up hhh. Love these kind of articles where you nitpick every corner of a team and it's season. Makes me wanna root for hammy for some reason.



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#10

05-27-2019, 06:24 PMMayuu Wrote: Nice write up hhh. Love these kind of articles where you nitpick every corner of a team and it's season. Makes me wanna root for hammy for some reason.

Because deep down you love me

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#11

05-27-2019, 06:42 PMnotorioustig Wrote:
05-27-2019, 06:24 PMMayuu Wrote: Nice write up hhh. Love these kind of articles where you nitpick every corner of a team and it's season. Makes me wanna root for hammy for some reason.

Because deep down you love me

I'd love do you you real deep. That's true.



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#12

05-27-2019, 06:24 PMMayuu Wrote: Nice write up hhh. Love these kind of articles where you nitpick every corner of a team and it's season. Makes me wanna root for hammy for some reason.

Thanks! I woke up this morning and wanted to write a "what happened?" media for a team. I thought about MAN, but HAM was more compelling a descent. I also contemplated MIN, but that would have been just foolish.

Maybe if I do another I'll look at SFP to see "what happened for them to FINALLY make the playoffs?"

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#13

05-27-2019, 07:02 PMhhh81 Wrote:
05-27-2019, 06:24 PMMayuu Wrote: Nice write up hhh. Love these kind of articles where you nitpick every corner of a team and it's season. Makes me wanna root for hammy for some reason.

Thanks! I woke up this morning and wanted to write a "what happened?" media for a team. I thought about MAN, but HAM was more compelling a descent. I also contemplated MIN, but that would have been just foolish.

Maybe if I do another I'll look at SFP to see "what happened for them to FINALLY make the playoffs?"

Yeah man, that would be awesome. A look into how tbb is shaping up after samees reign would be cool too.



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#14

it was a way worse season than anticipated, but we are definitely capable of retooling quickly with the prospects and roster we have. v good article

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#15

Excited for the future  Steelhawks Steelhawks

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