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Should the SHL Expand? A Deep Dive
#1
(This post was last modified: 08-07-2019, 10:27 AM by uhh.)

(2x first article on the site - I didn't claim this last week)
(2578 words)

Should the SHL Expand? A Deep Dive
Duthie Dreger, The Athletic
[Image: New_Orleans_skyline_2012_from_Danziger.jpg]
The skyline of New Orleans glows purple in support of the Specters' Season 49 SHL playoff run. The Specters are one of the most successful expansion franchises in the history of pro sports.

In front of a small bar in New Orleans’ French Quarter, the bar’s owner, Rene Levesquieu, is putting the finishing touches on his chalkboard sign, spelling out the night’s specials.

“SPECTERS GAME DAY!,” exclaims the sign in front of La Petite Morte Tavern. “If they win, beer is half price. If they lose… don’t worry: you can still buy beer.”

The Specters are the newest major sports attraction in the Big Easy, which also boasts the NFL’s New Orleans Saints and the NBA’s New Orleans Pelicans. The Specters share a home with the Pelicans, playing out of Smoothie King Center.

“I’m a transplant from Montreal, but I’ve lived here for almost all of my adult life,” says Levesquieu. “I always wanted to own a hockey bar, but I never thought we’d get hockey this far south, so I settled for a regular bar.

“When the SHL expanded to New Orleans, it was the happiest day of my life after my wedding and the birth of my son.” -Rene Levesquieu, New Orleans Specters fan

The Specters have quite a following throughout Louisiana. As the only professional hockey franchise in a state that is not traditionally known for its hockey passion, they didn’t have to compete with alternative draws or existing loyalties.

All throughout Louisiana, from Baton Rouge down to the coast, purple and black bumper stickers, window decals, hats, and clothing are lovingly displayed by the Specters’ supporters.

In addition to the initial euphoria surrounding any expansion team - the “shiny new toy” bump - the Specters further cemented their newfound place in Louisiana’s collective heart by going on a surprise run to the Challenge Cup Finals in their inaugural season, taking the eventual champion Buffalo Stampede to a surprising seventh game.

“That heartbreak when they lost was awful. Absolutely awful,” recalls Levesquieu, “but at the same time, I’m happy that I had a hockey team to be heartbroken about.

“They surprised all of us by being so good in their first season. Usually, expansion teams are horrible. We were all happy to have them here, and then when they were good, we were over the moon.”

How passionate is New Orleans about the Specters? Well, for starters, Buffalo Wings are nowhere to be found in Louisiana nowadays, having been summarily banned after New Orleans city council passed a (mostly) tongue-in-cheek resolution following the Specters’ Challenge Cup loss. Even seasons later, you still can’t find Buffalo Wings anywhere in New Orleans’ city limits.

“We have Cajun Wings if you want those. If you try to order Buffalo Wings in New Orleans, you’re probably not going to have a good time.” Levesquieu laughs as he says it, and it’s more likely that ordering the forbidden wings will earn a playful admonishment rather than an actual confrontation.

That said, if you’re from Winnipeg and you’re in New Orleans for vacation this year, it’s probably best to avoid mentioning the Jets. At least you have a common enemy in Buffalo, though.



The Specters joined the SHL in Season 46, along with their expansion classmates, the Chicago Syndicate. The Syndicate have mostly treaded water in their first few seasons compared to the surprising success of the Specters, who were an overtime away from appearing in the Season 48 Challenge Cup Finals and have established themselves as the real deal in the SHL.

Still, Chicago has won a playoff series in their short history as well, and snagged Kevin Hamilton @kckolbe  from Buffalo as their new first-line left winger this offseason, leading to fans’ optimistic outlook towards a potential wildcard berth this season.

It used to be that “making the playoffs” was the bar for expansion team success and legitimacy in any of the professional sports. Franchises need to clear that initial psychological hurdle of winning games when it matters most to truly cement their legitimacy within the league and the passion within their fans.

While most expansion teams will have no problems drawing crowds during their first season or so — the honeymoon period — this quickly evaporates once the initial hysteria is in the rear-view mirror and the reality of being a doormat for the league sets in.

“A pro sports franchise is an expensive up-front cost for a city and a community,” says Syndicate GM @Velevra. “Cities often end up footing the bill for the stadiums, the infrastructure to support the influx of fans coming and going to the stadium, and all of the other costs. That comes from the ownership, but also from peoples’ tax dollars.

“If you ask the city to foot that bill, it’s only a matter of time before the fans come calling, wanting to see the team put out results to match the fans’ initial enthusiasm. Everyone wants to see their home team have a championship parade.”

By expansion team standards, the Specters and the Syndicate have raised the bar. The Specters have been consistently above-average and were a win away from a Cup in their Inaugural season. The Syndicate are far closer to earth in terms of their performance, but also haven’t been a doormat. Their all-time record hovers around the .500 mark after their first four seasons.

How have both of these teams managed to achieve at least a modicum of success in such a short time?

“The SHL is an extremely deep league,” said an unnamed SHL executive who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “As good as the players are in the SHL, there are enough top-end players to support at least two more teams, maybe more.

“We have a world-class feeder system in the SMJHL, the first of its kind in any professional sport. That league does such a phenomenal job developing talent that teams like New Orleans have been able to come in and immediately reap the benefits of it.”

How deep is it? Well, in Season 48, 53 players had at least 40 points, 48 players at least 20 goals, and 11 players averaged at least a point per game. Every team had at least one player with 40 points, and most teams had multiple.

To put it into perspective, an SHL season is 50 games long. Players who score 40 points in 50 games are projected to score 66 over 82, the length of an NHL season. The league’s leading scorers in Season 48 — Flacko Lagerfield @JSS , Anders Christiansen @NorwegianDemon , and Jason Visser @ToeDragon84 — would have scored 108, 102, and 98 points respectively over an 82-game campaign.

[Image: LagerfieldBest.png]
A Flacko Lagerfield mural at Tampa International Airport. The star Barracuda is considered by some to be the best player in the SHL. (Graphics credit: @JSS)

By comparison, the NHL had 44 players who scored 66 or more points over 82 games last season. Not only is this a smaller percentage of the players in the league, but it’s also an absolutely smaller number in total than the equivalent players in the SHL. 

Even so, the NHL is still one of the top sports leagues in the world today in terms of parity, and is actively preparing for its 32nd team, awarding a franchise to Seattle earlier this year.  It begs the question: why doesn’t the SHL follow suit?

Since its inception, the SHL has been a case study in how a new sports league can carve a foothold when it’s not the only outfit in its own sport. Pundits declared the SHL dead-on-arrival when it entered its first season years ago, with hardly anybody thinking that the upstart league could do what the WHA and others could not: topple the NHL’s reign of best hockey league in the world.

Fast forward to the present day, and the outlook is vastly different. The SHL owns and operates its own major junior league, the SMJHL. This feeds players directly from juniors into the SHL, with no route into the big league that doesn’t go through the junior league. The average salary in the SMJHL is $3,000,000, which is being paid to 16-18 year olds. The CHL (the junior league system in Canada that is one of the biggest NHL feeders) pays its players, on average, $500 a month.

With such a payday available to young talent so early in their careers, it’s no wonder that the next generation of talented players are flocking to the SMJHL in droves. If you’re a teenage hockey player, would you rather:

a) Battle it out in the CHL for a chance to play in arguably the best hockey league in the world, with nothing to show for it if you don’t make it

b) Go the NCAA route and play as a student-athlete, making no money at all and hoping that a college degree will pad the fall of missing out on the NHL

c) Play in the SMJHL, make $3,000,000, have a chance at playing in arguably the best hockey league in the world, and keep the money regardless of where your career goes

The choice is apparent, and the SHL’s emphasis on paying players out early on in their careers has been the magic bullet that has shattered the NHL’s stranglehold on professional hockey in North America. The early and often paydays are the reason that players like Bo Kane @NONAME  of the SMJHL’s Colorado Raptors chose it.

“I had offers. The [London] Knights and the [Sault Ste. Marie] Grayhounds both said they would take me if I entered the draft. But Colorado came along with a check for $3,000,000 to play the same sport on the same stage,” explains Kane.

“Why wouldn’t I? Honestly, I’m surprised that anyone plays in the CHL or NCAA anymore with that kind of payday looming.”

Kane has a point. The SMJHL route carries less risk for players than chasing the NHL, and the NHL and SHL are arguably equal in popularity, at least in the markets that share teams. The Chicago Syndicate share a market with the Chicago Blackhawks, an NHL Original Six team, but have had no issues drawing fans at the gates or bringing in revenue. A basement-dwelling season by the Blackhawks surely helped, but the hype is real for the Syndicate in Chicago, a city that has already proven it can support two major teams in the same sport with baseball’s Cubs and White Sox.



The SHL’s ability to offer such high salaries as low as the major junior level is a testament to its shrewd handling of its own economics and business deals, as well as measured and rational approaches to expansion. The league thinks very carefully before deciding to add a franchise, and the Season 46 expansion was years in the making.

“When we consider expanding, the first thing we do is a feasibility study,” explained an unnamed SHL official. “We hire consultants to help us determine how profitable a team in those markets would be, how successful they would be with the current talent pool available, what sort of competition they would have locally, and the like.”

“We really need our teams to be successful. If you look at the SHL, pretty much every team has had stretches of success and rebuild, but the league has a good amount of parity, and every team has a chance to go bottom to top in a few seasons with the right management.”

The early success of New Orleans especially highlights that the talent is available for a new team to come in and immediately make noise in the SHL. What’s stopping the league from opening the floodgates and expanding like gangbusters, though?

“Aside from feasibility, it’s really down to cash flow. Expansion is a big upfront expense for the league, and if the model doesn’t support the long-term success of a franchise, we won’t follow through. We actually run pretty thin margins for a sports league, but they are consistent and our core business model is sound.”

If the league does decide to expand again, there is a laundry list of cities that would love to be at the front of the line: hockey-mad Canadian cities like Ottawa, Quebec City, and Saskatoon; untapped American markets like Indianapolis, Green Bay, and Kansas City; NHL incumbents like San Jose, Pittsburgh, and Philadelphia.

The loudest groups clamouring for expansion may be those in cities that have had and lost an SHL team. Portland has an organization dedicated to bringing the SHL back to the city after the Admirals left a few seasons back.

“With the SHL, we feel like the team moving was a matter of logistics. The team didn’t have a big enough stadium,” says SHL-2-Portland president Corey Grant. “The city has just approved plans for a brand new multi-sport facility here in downtown Portland, and I feel confident that we will see professional hockey here again someday.”

[Image: winterhawks.jpg?itok=TsVPVGm6]
The Portland Winterhawks of the WHL call the city home, but a sizable portion of the city's hockey fans still clamor for the day that the SHL returns.

Other formerly-spurned cities aren’t so bullish on the SHL’s return. Before the SHL’s Barracuda were in Tampa Bay, they spent a 29-season stint in Seattle as the Riot. While the SHL was returning to a city in its own right with the move (Tampa had lost the Wolfpack to Hartford/New England in the past), the move didn’t sit well with Seattle fans.

“I didn’t understand it,” said a self-proclaimed former Riot superfan named Tammy Watson. “The city was mad about the Riot, right up there with the Seahawks and Mariners. We have a lot of Canadian transplants in Seattle, and Seattle itself has a long and rich hockey history.

“The SHL leaving was truly sad and broke a lot of fans hearts. I wouldn’t bat an eye if they never came back, especially now that we have an NHL franchise. The Riot were fun while they lasted, but now they can go the route of the [former NBA team, Seattle] Sonics. Nobody cares about the [NBA’s] Oklahoma City Thunder in Seattle.”

While the SHL would certainly be remiss to not consider the feelings of fans like Mrs. Watson when choosing its expansion destinations, there’s an old saying: “The opposite of love isn’t hate. It’s apathy.” The SHL also has a track record of returning to cities. The Riot left for Tampa Bay, a city that lost the Tampa Bay Hydras to New England (where they now play as the Wolfpack).

“We were sad when they left, but we always held out hope that the circumstances for their departure would be corrected, and they have been. Now we have the Barracuda here, and the city loves them just as much as we loved the Hydra,” said Tampa hockey fan Jon Jones.

“The SHL is the best product available for pro sports spectators. The games are exciting, they’re accessible to fans, the players are down to earth, and the media coverage is top notch. We’re glad to have them back. Any city that gets a franchise would say the same. The SHL is a net-positive for the community.”

With such overwhelming positive sentiment towards the league, and with such a broad and diverse pool of talent for teams to pick from, expansion seems to be a matter of ‘when’ as opposed to ‘if.’

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#2

Specters

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#3

Hot damn

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#4

this is incredible well researched for someone who's been here less than a week

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#5

08-06-2019, 11:51 PMNoble Wrote: this is incredible well researched for someone who's been here less than a week

Nice multi dude

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#6

Portland Mavericks let's go!

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#7

08-06-2019, 11:51 PMNoble Wrote: this is incredible well researched for someone who's been here less than a week

Or has he?

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#8

08-06-2019, 11:58 PMvbottas17 Wrote: Portland Mavericks let's go!

YES

Or Legends.. Legends is good team name

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#9

08-06-2019, 11:57 PMスウェグキング Wrote:
08-06-2019, 11:51 PMNoble Wrote: this is incredible well researched for someone who's been here less than a week

Nice multi dude

Not gonna lie, a multi was the first place my brain went.

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#10

08-07-2019, 12:09 AMNoble Wrote:
08-06-2019, 11:57 PMスウェグキング Wrote: Nice multi dude

Not gonna lie, a multi was the first place my brain went.

Takes one to know one hey

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#11

Great read!  Very well done!

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#12

This was an awesome read.

Great work@!

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#13

Raptors

This is one of the best articles I've read, especially from a new user. Well done man, keep this content up.

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#14

We should downsize.

Get rid of the Pride.

Get rid of the Specters, purely due to their shit uniforms and logo.

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#15
(This post was last modified: 08-07-2019, 07:23 PM by uhh.)

08-07-2019, 12:09 AMNoble Wrote:
08-06-2019, 11:57 PMスウェグキング Wrote: Nice multi dude

Not gonna lie, a multi was the first place my brain went.


I wasn't going to say anything, but that's pretty weak that the first thought of someone new getting into the community is "this is probably someone's second account." On reddit, it seems like people who get into the league this much this quickly is exactly what you're looking for, and so it's disappointing that this is how you receive it.

I've always liked writing. I've always liked storytelling. I get really into things like this, which is why I was so excited when I saw the post on reddit. The "research" was looking at last season's SHL index, looking at each team's page in the SHL History forum, and crafting narratives around the key data points I found (leading scorers, team location history, etc.). I've written a lot because I think this whole idea is fun, and writing interesting, well-written articles is the main thing I have to offer this community.

I'm not mad at you or anything, but I think it's weak of you to come into my thread and say that. If you want to get to know me or who I am then message me here or on discord, but I don't do this passive-aggressive stuff.

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