Want to dabble in statistical analysis?
Have you ever wanted to learn how to analyze the data in Franchise Hockey Manager 6? Look no further than this beginner tutorial based in R.
Code:
I don't know what type (if any) media this is, but I thought I would give this a chance.
This is entirely too smart for me
GCool
Well done! I appreciate the work that goes into Rmd’s.
I might’ve missed something zooming through, but is your prediction based on the point estimate alone? Or are you doing something else?
05-05-2021, 01:45 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-05-2021, 01:46 PM by Canadice .)
05-05-2021, 01:40 PM GCool Wrote:
In this tutorial the predictions are solely based on the point estimate. You can enter an interesting debate whether or not you are able to create confidence intervals for the mean number of wins, but I would argue that you cannot do that because the data is not independent. What I instead did was using the quantiles (25% and 75% percentiles) as some form of measurement of the uncertainty, and the more certain predictions are when the casino line falls under/over the upper/lower quantile.
GCool
05-05-2021, 01:45 PM Canadice Wrote: 05-05-2021, 01:40 PM GCool Wrote:
I support that. I guess simming in succession would not be independent, but re-loading the original file and running a single season again would be - or looping the 20-season simulation n=20, 30, etc. times. Either of those would be independent trials in my mind, but yeah. I like your method!
05-05-2021, 01:49 PM GCool Wrote: 05-05-2021, 01:45 PM Canadice Wrote:
That is actually what the tutorial assumes you do, simulate the entire season `nSims` number of times. I would still err on the side of caution, but then again the sims you do at the start of the season don't take into account player development or tactic changes during the season. So the conclusions made with or without a confidence interval might hold the same amount of truth in the end.
GCool
05-05-2021, 01:56 PM Canadice Wrote: 05-05-2021, 01:49 PM GCool Wrote: the sims you do at the start of the season don't take into account player development or tactic changes during the season . So the conclusions made with or without a confidence interval might hold the same amount of truth in the end.
Precisely. It's a perfectly sound experiment with a little bit of questionable logic when making the inference. In my experience in school and work, those typically work out just fine. Haha
05-05-2021, 05:27 PM
(This post was last modified: 05-05-2021, 05:28 PM by hotdog .)
05-05-2021, 04:18 PM caltroit_red_flames Wrote:
R is cool and good
05-05-2021, 05:29 PM luketd Wrote: 05-05-2021, 05:27 PM hotdog Wrote: E is cool and good @geck
KARI KEKKONEN | D | RETIRED NAME: Kari Kekkonen BIRTHPLACE: Oulu, Finland HEIGHT: 6'1" WEIGHT: 185 lbs NUMBER: 33 ------------------------------------------------------------ SMJHL CAREER STATS S19 KEL: GP: 40, G: 10, A: 26, P: 36, +/-: 16, H: 42 SMJHL PLAYOFF STATS S19 KEL: GP: 6, G: 0, A: 6, P: 6, +/-: 0, H: 6 ------------------------------------------------------------ KAAPO KEKKONEN | C | RETIRED NAME: Kaapo Kekkonen BIRTHPLACE: Helsinki, Finland HEIGHT: 6'3" WEIGHT: 210 lbs NUMBER: 19 ------------------------------------------------------------ SHL CAREER STATS S25 LAP: GP: 50, G: 2, A: 3, P: 5, +/-: -4, H: 75 S26 LAP: GP: 50, G: 4, A: 5, P: 9, +/-: -13, H: 94 S27 LAP: GP: 50, G: 6, A: 9, P: 15, +/-: -2, H: 35 S28 LAP: GP: 50, G: 7, A: 10, P: 17, +/-: -2, H: 96 S29 LAP: GP: 50, G: 13, A: 21, P: 34, +/-: -15, H: 85 S30 LAP: GP: 50, G: 23, A: 22, P: 45, +/-: 4, H: 130 S31 LAP: GP: 50, G: 20, A: 18, P: 38, +/-: 5, H: 162 S32 LAP: GP: 50, G: 18, A: 28, P: 46, +/-: 27, H: 183 S33 LAP: GP: 50, G: 17, A: 22, P: 39, +/-: 20, H: 210 S34 LAP: GP: 50, G: 12, A: 25, P: 37, +/-: -2, H: 131 S35 LAP: GP: 50, G: 10, A: 22, P: 32, +/-: -3, H: 115 S36 LAP: GP: 50, G: 11, A: 20, P: 31, +/-: 10, H: 138 S37 LAP: GP: 36, G: 9, A: 17, P: 26, +/-: -1, H: 72 S37 WKP: GP: 14, G: 1, A: 0, P: 1, +/-: -4, H: 19 TOT : GP: 650, G: 153, A: 222, P: 375, +/-: 20, H: 1545 ------------------------------------------------------------ SHL PLAYOFF STATS S25 LAP: DNQ S26 LAP: DNQ S27 LAP: DNQ S28 LAP: DNQ S29 LAP: DNQ S30 LAP: DNQ S31 LAP: DNQ S32 LAP: GP: 5, G: 1, A: 3, P: 4, +/-: -2, H: 15 S33 LAP: GP: 12, G: 2, A: 3, P: 5, +/-: 0, H: 38 S34 LAP: GP: 7, G: 1, A: 3, P: 4, +/-: 3, H: 23 S35 LAP: GP: 5, G: 1, A: 1, P: 2, +/-: -4, H: 4 S36 LAP: DNQ S37 WKP: GP: 12, G: 0, A: 2, P: 2, +/-: -2, H: 35 TOT : GP: 41, G: 5, A: 12, P: 17, +/-: -5, H: 115 ------------------------------------------------------------ TATU MÄKELÄ | D | RETIRED NAME: Tatu Mäkelä BIRTHPLACE: Tampere, Finland HEIGHT: 5'11" WEIGHT: 180 lbs NUMBER: 65 ------------------------------------------------------------ SHL CAREER STATS S40 BUF: GP: 50, G: 5, A: 17, P: 22, +/-: -28, H: 14, SB: 86 S41 BUF: GP: 50, G: 10, A: 21, P: 31, +/-: -3, H: 9, SB: 78 S42 BUF: GP: 50, G: 9, A: 21, P: 30, +/-: 2, H: 13, SB: 65 S43 BUF: GP: 50, G: 6, A: 24, P: 30, +/-: 1, H: 8, SB: 51 S44 BUF: GP: 50, G: 6, A: 28, P: 34, +/-: -6, H: 10, SB: 63 S45 BUF: GP: 50, G: 4, A: 37, P: 41, +/-: 10, H: 130, SB: 71 S46 BUF: GP: 50, G: 6, A: 36, P: 42, +/-: 25, H: 139, SB: 73 S47 BUF: GP: 50, G: 5, A: 23, P: 28, +/-: -4, H: 137, SB: 76 S48 BUF: GP: 50, G: 7, A: 25, P: 32, +/-: 9, H: 151, SB: 70 S49 BUF: GP: 50, G: 6, A: 22, P: 28, +/-: 5, H: 159, SB: 66 S50 BUF: GP: 50, G: 6, A: 20, P: 26, +/-: 14, H: 152, SB: 72 S51 BUF: GP: 50, G: 3, A: 23, P: 26, +/-: 8, H: 143, SB: 50 S52 BUF: GP: 50, G: 9, A: 21, P: 30, +/-: -3, H: 141, SB: 71 S53 BUF: GP: 50, G: 5, A: 14, P: 19, +/-: 23, H: 50, SB: 98 TOT : GP: 700, G: 87, A: 332, P: 419, +/-: 53, H: 1256, SB: 990 ------------------------------------------------------------ SHL PLAYOFF STATS S40 BUF: DNQ S41 BUF: GP: 7, G: 3, A: 2, P: 5, +/-: -3, H: 0, SB: 10 S42 BUF: GP: 5, G: 0, A: 1, P: 1, +/-: -9, H: 2, SB: 10 S43 BUF: GP: 9, G: 0, A: 5, P: 5, +/-: -1, H: 1, SB: 8 S44 BUF: DNQ S45 BUF: DNQ S46 BUF: GP: 17, G: 0, A: 12, P: 12, +/-: 11, H: 59, SB: 28 S47 BUF: GP: 13, G: 0, A: 5, P: 5, +/-: 2, H: 32, SB: 18 S48 BUF: GP: 22, G: 2, A: 10, P: 12, +/-: 2, H: 64, SB: 32 S49 BUF: GP: 5, G: 0, A: 5, P: 5, +/-: 5, H: 15, SB: 8 S50 BUF: GP: 6, G: 0, A: 5, P: 5, +/-: -2, H: 18, SB: 12 S51 BUF: GP: 8, G: 2, A: 5, P: 7, +/-: -3, H: 15, SB: 11 S52 BUF: GP: 15, G: 4, A: 5, P: 9, +/-: 4, H: 47, SB: 26 S53 BUF: GP: 4, G: 0, A: 0, P: 0, +/-: 0, H: 6, SB: 13 TOT : GP: 111, G: 11, A: 55, P: 66, +/-: 6, H: 159, SB: 176 ------------------------------------------------------------ KOLJA KEKKONEN | D | RETIRED NAME: Kolja Kekkonen BIRTHPLACE: Lappeenranta, Finland HEIGHT: 6'3" WEIGHT: 225 lbs NUMBER: 8 ------------------------------------------------------------ SMJHL CAREER STATS S53 DET: GP: 3, G: 0, A: 1, P: 1, +/-: -1, H: 2, SB: 0 S54 DET: GP: 50, G: 2, A: 8, P: 10, +/-: -6, H: 15, SB: 37 S55 DET: GP: 50, G: 4, A: 12, P: 16, +/-: -24, H: 32, SB: 24 S56 DET: GP: 50, G: 4, A: 17, P: 21, +/-: -20, H: 52, SB: 71 S57 ANA: GP: 66, G: 6, A: 20, P: 26, +/-: 14, H: 52, SB: 70 TOT : GP: 219, G: 16, A: 58, P: 74, +/-: -37, H: 153, SB: 202 SMJHL PLAYOFF STATS S53 DET: DNP S54 DET: GP: 7, G: 0, A: 0, P: 0, +/-: 0, H: 2, SB: 3 S55 DET: GP: 4, G: 0, A: 1, P: 1, +/-: -2, H: 3, SB: 0 S56 DET: GP: 5, G: 2, A: 2, P: 4, +/-: 0, H: 3, SB: 7 S57 ANA: GP: 21, G: 2, A: 13, P: 15, +/-: 5, H: 13, SB: 34 TOT : GP: 37, G: 4, A: 16, P: 20, +/-: 3, H: 22, SB: 44 ------------------------------------------------------------ KEKW KEKKONEN | C | RETIRED NAME: Karl-Erik-Karl2-Wojtek Kekkonen BIRTHPLACE: Lohja, Finland HEIGHT: 6'4" WEIGHT: 220 lbs NUMBER: 69 ------------------------------------------------------------ SHL CAREER STATS S61 BUF: GP: 66, G: 10, A: 28, P: 38, +/-: 21, H: 59, SH: 134 S62 BUF: GP: 66, G: 19, A: 36, P: 55, +/-: 9, H: 84, SH: 194 S63 BUF: GP: 66, G: 17, A: 14, P: 31, +/-: -13, H: 91, SH: 148 S64 BUF: GP: 66, G: 16, A: 51, P: 67, +/-: 36, H: 82, SH: 212 S65 BUF: GP: 66, G: 25, A: 41, P: 66, +/-: 33, H: 136, SH: 230 S66 BUF: GP: 66, G: 38, A: 43, P: 81, +/-: 18, H: 64, SH: 222 S67 BUF: GP: 66, G: 40, A: 45, P: 85, +/-: -6, H: 76, SH: 224 S68 BUF: GP: 66, G: 47, A: 46, P: 93, +/-: 45, H: 51, SH: 326 S69 BUF: GP: 66, G: 35, A: 31, P: 66, +/-: 22, H: 43, SH: 269 S70 BUF: GP: 66, G: 33, A: 48, P: 81, +/-: 18, H: 66, SH: 297 S71 BUF: GP: 66, G: 36, A: 41, P: 77, +/-: 37, H: 55, SH: 257 S72 BUF: GP: 66, G: 25, A: 35, P: 60, +/-: -1, H: 58, SH: 281 S73 BUF: GP: 66, G: 31, A: 41, P: 72, +/-: 23, H: 48, SH: 305 S74 BUF/WPG: GP: 66, G: 17, A: 47, P: 64, +/-: 33, H: 101, SH: 164 TOT : GP: 924, G: 389, A: 547, P: 936, +/-: 275, H: 1014, SH: 3263 SHL PLAYOFF STATS S61 BUF: GP: 9, G: 2, A: 6, P: 8, +/-: 4, H: 11, SH: 24 S62 BUF: GP: 9, G: 3, A: 1, P: 4, +/-: 2, H: 5, SH: 25 S63 BUF: GP: 12, G: 1, A: 2, P: 3, +/-: -1, H: 32, SH: 33 S64 BUF: GP: 11, G: 2, A: 2, P: 4, +/-: -6, H: 12, SH: 41 S65 BUF: GP: 18, G: 4, A: 7, P: 11, +/-: 8, H: 34, SH: 62 S66 BUF: GP: 16, G: 11, A: 9, P: 20, +/-: 3, H: 13, SH: 49 S67 BUF: GP: 4, G: 2, A: 2, P: 4, +/-: -3, H: 3, SH: 20 S68 BUF: GP: 17, G: 6, A: 8, P: 14, +/-: -4, H: 11, SH: 75 S69 BUF: GP: 4, G: 1, A: 0, P: 1, +/-: -5, H: 2, SH: 13 S70 BUF: GP: 7, G: 1, A: 3, P: 4, +/-: -8, H: 2, SH: 25 S71 BUF: GP: 21, G: 12, A: 9, P: 21, +/-: 6, H: 24, SH: 97 S72 BUF: GP: 5, G: 0, A: 2, P: 2, +/-: -4, H: 7, SH: 25 S73 BUF: GP: 6, G: 3, A: 0, P: 3, +/-: -3, H: 11, SH: 33 S74 WPG: GP: 22, G: 3, A: 4, P: 7, +/-: -2, H: 15, SH: 37 TOT : GP: 161, G: 51, A: 55, P: 106, +/-: -11, H: 182, SH: 559 ------------------------------------------------------------ KAL ÅKAR KEKKONEN | D | DETROIT FALCONS NAME: Kal Åkar Kekkonen BIRTHPLACE: The Wilderness, Gielinor HEIGHT: 6'6" WEIGHT: 240 lbs NUMBER: 75 ------------------------------------------------------------ SMJHL CAREER STATS S74 DET: GP: 66, G: 6, A: 14, P: 20, +/-: 3, SH: 83, H: 76, SB: 29 S75 DET: GP: 66, G: 8, A: 22, P: 30, +/-: 31, SH: 129, H: 123, SB: 114 SMJHL PLAYOFF STATS S74 DET: GP: 17, G: 3, A: 7, P: 10, +/-: 8, SH: 18, H: 16, SB: 5 S75 DET: GP: 14, G: 5, A: 6, P: 11, +/-: 2, SH: 40, H: 26, SB: 27 ------------------------------------------------------------
Wally
When your real life industry awards you for your sales performance and then you log into your sim life and realize you aren’t too smart. LIFE.
Kyle Wahlters || General Manager || Toronto North Stars ------------------------------------------------------------ Career Statistics: SHL Portland Admirals AGM - S31 | 21-27-2 | Portland Admirals GM - S32 | 7-40-3 | Portland Admirals GM - S33 | 20-24-6 | Portland Admirals GM - S34 | 30-16-4 | Western Conference Champion Portland Admirals GM - S35 | 29-18-3 | Western Conference Champion Calgary Dragons HC - S59 | 42-20-4 | Lost in Quarterfinals Calgary Dragons HC - S60 | 38-21-7 | Lost in Western Conference Finals Calgary Dragons HC - S61 | 34-26-6 | Lost in Quarterfinals Calgary Dragons AGM - S62 | 36-23-7 | Lost in First Round Toronto North Stars GM - S63 | 36-22-8 | Lost in First Round Toronto North Stars GM - S64 | 19-43-4 | Lost in First Round Toronto North Stars GM - S65 | 38-23-5 | Lost in First Round Toronto North Stars GM - S66 | 38-26-2 | Lost in Second Round Toronto North Stars GM - S67 | 47-16-3 | Lost in Second Round Toronto North Stars GM - S68 | 46-16-4 | Lost in Second Round Toronto North Stars GM - S69 | 13-50-3 | DNQ Toronto North Stars GM - S70 | 6-57-3 | DNQ Toronto North Stars GM - S71 | 10-56-0 | DNQ Toronto North Stars GM - S72 | 14-48-4 | DNQ Toronto North Stars GM - S73 | 22-39-5 | Lost in First Round Toronto North Stars GM - S74 | 30-33-3 | Lost in First Round SMJHL Montreal Militia AGM - S45 | 29-19-2 | Lost in Quarterfinals Montreal Militia AGM - S46 | 24-21-5 | Lost in Semi-Finals IIHF Austria GM - S57 | 3-8-1 Austria GM - S58 | 2-9-1 Austria GM - S59 | 1-9-2 Austria GM - S60 | 3-9-0 Austria GM - S61 | 5-7-0 ------------------------------------------------------------ Awards: S34 Lance Uppercut Award S60 Coach of the Year Award S61 Coach of the Year Award Oleksander Olli O'Koivu || C || Regina Elk || Rookie Name: Oleksander Olli O'Koivu Age: 17 Birthplace: Netherlands ------------------------------------------------------------ Cale Amundsen || G || Calgary/Seattle || 1,298 TPE Name: Cale Amundsen Age: 21 Birthplace: Netherlands IIHF Affiliation: Austria ------------------------------------------------------------ Career Statistics: SHL Regular Season Totals: S55 - 5 GP | 4-0-1 | 3 SO | .958 SV% | 0.59 GAA | 79 GR S56 - 5 GP | 3-2-0 | 1 SO | .914 SV% | 1.81 GAA | 70 GR S57 - 20 GP | 15-2-0 | 3 SO | .924 SV% | 1.51 GAA | 67 GR S58 - 18 GP | 15-2-0 | 1 SO | .927 SV% | 1.72 GAA | 74 GR S59 - 24 GP | 18-5-1 | 1 SO | .906 SV% | 2.61 GAA | 69 GR S60 - 29 GP | 15-10-3 | 2 SO | .921 SV% | 2.81 GAA | 79 GR S61 - 50 GP | 26-19-4 | 2 SO | .919 SV% | 2.86 GAA | 77 GR S62 - 47 GP | 24-15-5 | 2 SO | .918 SV% | 3.26 GAA | 76 GR SHL Playoff Totals: S60 - 11 GP | 5-4-1 | 1 SO | .930 SV% | 2.75 GAA | 81 GR S61 - 10 GP | 5-3-2 | 1 SO | .931 SV% | 2.38 GAA | 82 GR S62 - 7 GP | 3-3-1 | 0 SO | .911 SV% | 3.78 GAA | 78 GR SMJHL Regular Season Totals: S53 - 43 GP | 21-17-4 | 5 SO | .919 SV% | 2.68 GAA | 74 GR S54 - 41 GP | 28-10-3 | 5 SO | .911 SV% | 2.31 GAA | 69 GR S55 - 40 GP | 26-8-5 | 6 SO | .917 SV% | 2.06 GAA | 69 GR S56 - 42 GP | 25-14-3 | 7 SO | .914 SV% | 2.45 GAA | 70 GR ------------------------------------------------------------ Awards: S53 SMJHL 1st Team S53 SMJHL All-Rookie Team S53 SMJHL Esa Anrikkanen Trophy S53 SMJHL Tom Corcoran Trophy S54 SMJHL East All-Star S54 SMJHL Tom Corcoran Nominee S55 SMJHL East All-Star S55 SMJHL King-Kurczewski Gauntlet S55 Four Star Cup Championship S56 SMJHL East All-Star S56 SMJHL 2nd Team S56 SMJHL King-Kurczewski Gauntlet S56 Playoff MVP Nominee S56 SMJHL Tom Corcoran Trophey S60 Newfoundland Berserker Hall of Fame Inductee ------------------------------------------------------------ Transactions: S53 Drafted #13 OA by the Newfoundland Berserkers S54 Drafted #23 OA by the Chicago Syndacite S54 Traded to the Calgary Dragons S54 Signed a 3yr/$7.5m contract S56 Signed a 3 yr/$9m contract extension Olli O'Koivu || G || POR/MIN Retired || S39 Cup Champion Name: Olli O'Koivu Age: 31 Birthplace: Finland (Played for Ireland) ------------------------------------------------------------ Career Statistics: SHL Regular Season Totals: 269 GP | 146-89-34 | 20 SO | .910 SV% | 2.75 GAA ------------------------------------------------------------ Awards: S33 All-Rookie Team S34 Cole Reinhart Trophy S35 Mike Honcho Trophy S35 John McBride Trophy S35 Aiden Richan Trophy S35 1st Team All-Star S35 Cole Reinhart Trophy S37 IIHF Silver Medal S38 2nd Team All-Star S38 John McBride Nominee S38 Ron Mexico Nominee S39 2nd Team All-Star S39 John McBride Nominee S39 Mathias Chouinard Trophy S39 Challenge Cup S39 IIHF Bronze Medal S39 IIHF Top Goalie S40 Mathias Chouinard Trophy S41 IIHF Bronze Medal S41 IIHF Top Goalie S42 Damian Littleton Nominee Aleksi O'Koivu-Volkova || G || HAM/CAL Retired || S50 Cup Champion Name: Aleksi O'Koivu-Volkova Age: 17 Birthplace: Russia ------------------------------------------------------------ S50 Challenge Cup S51 Bronze IIHF
Canadice
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PROFILE
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