04-04-2022, 04:26 PMCampinKiller Wrote: They also "don't test" according to their coGM and apparently lost the vast majority of their tests vs LAP, while Fuzz had maybe a 30% success rate, so.
This was in reference to being told Hallsy and I spend our entire lives sim testing. Fuzz can say what he wants, we were sub 50% against Bap and hovering around 50% vs LAP. Here Is a screenshot from our management channel before the BAP series.
I’ll actually stick up for u guys for a moment here lol, they also won two basically 50/50 coin flips against BUF when they were down 3-2 before even RNGing a BAP series win
HAMs obviously dominated bc they’re good at fhm on top of other things but to think some of their cup wins aren’t RNG luck is absurd
04-04-2022, 08:38 PMnour Wrote: It's not a popular take, but if we care about closer parity in Juniors, you need to cull 2 teams from the league at minimum. SHL playerbase is stable enough to expand when it makes sense for them, Juniors playerbase is way too unpredictable to field 14 teams when sub-60 player draft classes are the norm now.
As J GM of one of the two teams from the most recent expansion, this idea terrifies me, but I can never find any argument to disagree with it.
04-04-2022, 08:38 PMnour Wrote: It's not a popular take, but if we care about closer parity in Juniors, you need to cull 2 teams from the league at minimum. SHL playerbase is stable enough to expand when it makes sense for them, Juniors playerbase is way too unpredictable to field 14 teams when sub-60 player draft classes are the norm now.
As J GM of one of the two teams from the most recent expansion, this idea terrifies me, but I can never find any argument to disagree with it.
Fwiw if it was up to me, I wouldn't just cull the newest teams, I think hands down the best way is to find which teams have the least active discords/the least amount of active players, or some sort of combo of metrics that assess which teams are objectively the worst landing spots for a new create's ability to stay active. Doing this will almost certainly have us kill teams with a lot of history, but history means nothing if no one is actively keeping it, you know?
**First GM in SMJHL history to win 3 Four Star Cups back-to-back-to-back**
04-04-2022, 09:34 PMnour Wrote: Fwiw if it was up to me, I wouldn't just cull the newest teams, I think hands down the best way is to find which teams have the least active discords/the least amount of active players, or some sort of combo of metrics that assess which teams are objectively the worst landing spots for a new create's ability to stay active. Doing this will almost certainly have us kill teams with a lot of history, but history means nothing if no one is actively keeping it, you know?
Yeah I like to think it wouldn't go the "last in, first out" route but fear isn't rational eh?
04-04-2022, 09:29 PMlespoils Wrote: As J GM of one of the two teams from the most recent expansion, this idea terrifies me, but I can never find any argument to disagree with it.
Fwiw if it was up to me, I wouldn't just cull the newest teams, I think hands down the best way is to find which teams have the least active discords/the least amount of active players, or some sort of combo of metrics that assess which teams are objectively the worst landing spots for a new create's ability to stay active. Doing this will almost certainly have us kill teams with a lot of history, but history means nothing if no one is actively keeping it, you know?
just move Van and Det to the SHL, make things right!!!! HOW COULD YOU HAVE VAN AND DETROIT IN THE J!!!!
04-04-2022, 04:33 PMRotticusScott Wrote: This was in reference to being told Hallsy and I spend our entire lives sim testing. Fuzz can say what he wants, we were sub 50% against Bap and hovering around 50% vs LAP. Here Is a screenshot from our management channel before the BAP series.
I’ll actually stick up for u guys for a moment here lol, they also won two basically 50/50 coin flips against BUF when they were down 3-2 before even RNGing a BAP series win
HAMs obviously dominated bc they’re good at fhm on top of other things but to think some of their cup wins aren’t RNG luck is absurd
I stand corrected then. HAM definitely has the FHM skill to do well and looks like they got some good coin flips too. The are 14th in the league with TPE and their record more or less reflects that this season.
I think instead of blaming the juniors for the rise of career junior players i think we should look at making the shl a more fun league to play in. Dont know what this thread has to do with hamilton
04-05-2022, 11:40 AM(This post was last modified: 04-05-2022, 11:41 AM by Waters. Edited 3 times in total.)
04-04-2022, 03:53 PMSburbine Wrote:
04-04-2022, 03:36 PMWaters Wrote: That’s not what the post I was replying to said, so it does help. Also, I don’t agree. The things that make a team good in SHL and SMJHL are largely similar, and they are the things you listed when you were praising NL. Good trades, good drafting and good locker room. The difference is, while hamilton wins a lot of games (not even true right now, they suck), NL wins almost every game in a league where the smaller theoretical success windows should allow teams to be more even. I believe you guys are working on it, but posts that compare NL favourably to HAM makes it sound like you guys think their dominance isn’t as bad so it’s not as pressing an issue. I think it’s actually much worse.
If it makes you feel any better NL is about to lose 8 players in the offseason. SHL teams don't go through anything even remotely similar. If NL can still dominate next season then I'll agree with you. The main issue is Hamilton is able to do it with middling TPE (see last season) while NL has the highest TPE in the J.
It does make me feel better. Obviously, I don't think NL is going to ruin the league for centuries to come but this type of dominance, even if it's the peak of what it would look like, should not be allowed to happen. We are lucky that this class is mostly recreates, cause if this happened in a bigger rookie class it would be a lot tougher to justify why a developmental league is so uneven. In my opinion, the main problem is junior lifers. I personally would suggest getting rid of 5th seasons in juniors, as the current waiver system (I think that's still how it works) makes it so that active players almost never make it to 5 seasons in juniors and it only helps junior lifers. Ultimately though, I recognize it's a new HO with a new commish and I believe that you guys are working on it.
Obviously I'm saying this as someone who does not or have ever had to deal with the headache of scheduling for SHL stuff, but would shorter IRL careers not help out with this? 2 IRL years has always felt excessive to me despite grinding it out twice now.
04-04-2022, 04:58 PMsköldpaddor Wrote: Hamilton and Newfoundland both have GMs/coaching staff who are very, very good at FHM. I don't think anyone would argue that. But being good at the sim does not get you as far in the J as it does in the SHL. Being good at the sim is absolutely not enough when the lifespan of any player you acquire, regardless of how good they are or how you acquire them, is a maximum of five seasons. That limited lifespan completely changes the way you have to build your team, and the things you have to focus on. It limits the extent to which you can rely on certain things that SHL GMs can rely on. A juniors team can't have a whole team commit to a ten-season big picture or build theory, the landscape is always changing. A juniors GM has to be absolutely on top of things that SHL gms generally don't have to worry about. When was the last time an SHL GM (outside of those paid to be mentors) had to spend hours helping somebody completely new to the site figure out how to do an update thread? What percentage of an active SHL roster has to be gently reminded to do their PTs every single week? (I don't have data on that, but I'd wager it's a lot lower than it is in the J).
Free agency in the J and free agency in the SHL are completely different animals, and that was actually the main point of the second paragraph of my original post (I know that got kind of lost in all of the "why is Hamilton involved here" scuffle and I think I could probably have been a little clearer about that, so that's on me). There is absolutely no equivalent in the SHL for getting a blank slate player that you can guide into the build strategy of your team without having to consider significant budget ramifications, or using/spending significant assets for them. I admit that I don't know what Hamilton is like on the inside, but from the outside, it looks like a group of tightly-knit friends who are committed to one team strategy for literal real life years at a time, who will almost definitely want to come back to that same team with their next create, and I am in no way saying that's a bad thing, but it's a completely different picture than anything you can build in the J.
I agree that the skillsets are not the same, and that's not what I meant to say. However, I do think the parity conversation revolves around similar aspects of both jobs, and parity matters a lot more in juniors because it is the first window into how the league functions for a new member, but I'm sure we both agree on this.
For the Hamilton point, I think it needs to be said that is mostly not the case. Most of the "hammy guys" are semi-actives who have made like 1 or 2 good players amongst themselves in their entire SHL careers. If you look at the roster, I think the entire SHL roster outside of JSS is on their first player on Hamilton. I can't speak for everyone else on hamilton, but I have no intention of forcing myself to go back, and I know that a lot of my friends in the S65 class are not building these players simply to feed back into the Hamilton system. We care about the league and want to see it succeed. I don't think your perception is unique, but I know it's not accurate.
04-04-2022, 04:58 PMsköldpaddor Wrote: People like to bring up the boogeyman of "J lifers" but as ACap already explained, the data just does not support the claim that that is the big problem here. The rules currently allow players to play a fifth season in the J, and maybe there's a conversation to be had about whether we want that to continue, but we just do not see this overwhelming influx of repeat users recreating to join the same J team over and over and over again. Sure, we see established users express a preference for going to a certain J team when they recreate, but they are by and large users who go on to have full SHL careers after that. When people stall out in the J and play five seasons, it's usually because they've either a. decided they aren't really interested in sticking around but like their J team enough to make it to the cap and finish their time out here, or b. gone fully inactive. I can count on one hand the number of users I've ever had tell me in the entire 3+ years I've been here that they actually intend to only ever play in the J and recreate repeatedly to do so - it happens, but I don't think it happens nearly as often as people think.
lmao I should've read this before my last post. I don't think when people say "junior lifers" are the problem they necessarily mean there are players nefariously calculating how to best optimize their players for juniors and spend their entire 5 season careers on junior teams. Moreso, I think that junior teams should not be able to profit from a player's disinterest. If a player goes inactive at 425, should an SMJHL team really be rewarded with 2 more seasons of the best possible junior players? I don't think so. I think the main priority should be promoting development and activity.
04-05-2022, 12:04 PMRashfordU Wrote: What if 5th Season J Players had to revert back to their 350 build if they wanted to stay in the SMJHL?
I like this.
I also dont hate the idea of J liters getting to play a 6th season ar 350 TPE but being unable to go up to the SHL. So you would literally have people who would spend 6 seasons in the J and then retire, with a regression to 350 the last two seasons. Could help bolster J numbers too
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