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PremierBromanov · 12-04-2020, 05:23 PM

The Case for 4th Lines

By PremierBromanov

Age 29 and a half

Since this is something I want, I figured I’d make media out of it and get paid for laying out my arguments.

First off, I recognize that any change like this drastically changes the landscape of the SHL. It’s a big move, one that not every team is ready for. It impacts the SMJHL as well, as more players have opportunities to crack a lineup. Obviously, the cap would need to go up. And I’ll go over those later, but I wanted to lay them out so you don’t have to suffer through reading this thinking that I don’t know all that.

Secondly, I don’t want this article to be instructional. How we implement 4th lines, the work that needs to be done, isn’t a concern of this article. We all know things have to be done before we could let 4th lines be a thing. I know that the head office works hard to implement new rules and features and I know that there are a lot of things to consider. I know this isn’t a flip of the switch. We are not concerned with all the logistical reasons NOT do this tomorrow or the next day, we are concerned with arguing that this is a good thing worth working towards.

So in that regard, questioning the “how” would be less of an argument and more part of the discourse. I welcome the discussion, but questioning the “how” doesn’t automatically defeat the “why”. So comments about the “how” wont be viewed by me as argumentative.

Let’s start (or...continue, i suppose) with the “What”.

What

I think we should implement 4th forward lines. I’ve noticed in some of the discussions, people have mistakenly believed this includes defensemen. I can see why you’d think that since “4th lines” isn’t exactly descriptive. It’s important that we lay down the ground work for our argument, so I’m going to be stupidly specific at times so we’re all on the same page.

Those of you unfamiliar with hockey may not know that a professional roster is comprised of 4 forward lines with 3 players each, and 3 defensive pairs, obviously 2 players each, and 2 goaltenders, only 1 of which plays at a time. Therefore, a roster is 12 forwards, 6 defensemen, and 2 goaltenders, 20 players total (In some leagues, there is 1 extra player dressed). The nomenclature is important here so I want to be specific. When we talk about Lines, we’re talking about 3 forwards. Each line has a Center, a Left Wing, and a Right Wing. Players don’t have to be those positions to play them, but it helps. Pairs are strictly in reference to defensemen, a Left Defenseman and a Right Defenseman.

In hockey, 1 Line and 1 Pair will be on the ice at any one time. In the SHL, we have 3 lines and 3 pairs, so the ice time is often even between forwards and defensemen. In professional hockey (more on that later), since there are 4 forward lines, Defensemen necessarily see more ice time (60 / 3 > 60 / 4) than their counterparts. It also means that forward lines change more frequently than defensive pairs. This is why some commentators will note that teams make a “wholesale change” when all 5 players leave the ice, as opposed to just any old line change. Changing to 4th lines wouldn’t increase defensemen’s play time, it would decrease forward’s play time across the board. This may be something you don’t want, but such are the thoughts of anyone who is forced to share a pizza with 3 people instead of 2. It’s important that we recognize that on the affirmative side of 4th lines, we’re asking forwards to divide their 60 minutes of play time with 1 extra line.

Why

Lets look at some stats because I think it’s an important factor that doesn’t necessarily help me, but we should be honest anyway.

Here is a simple table showing how many players we have, how many roster spots are available, and what the 4th line would open up.

[Image: Capture.PNG]

Of these 608 players, only 360 are active. Part of this is due to the fact that those players are old and have not been retired, so its not as dire as it looks. A lot of these players are shared by the same owner.

So what this means is we have 186 roster spots between the two leagues that MUST be filled by inactives. Obviously, adding 54 players (18 teams, 3 players added) creates a bigger deficit. But I think part of the reason people go inactive in the first place is because they can’t fit in a roster long term, and THAT is the problem we are hoping to solve (among other things). One of the biggest fights fought in this league is to increase retention of players.

Lowering the Bar

Right now, there’s not much long term roster space for a 4th year player under 700 TPE. There’s a certain amount of effort required to make it in this league, and if we want to thrive and continue thriving, we need to open up the league to less dedicated players. As you know, it doesn’t matter how much TPE the league earns on average, what matters is that players continue to be active in our LRs and on site, even if its not at the rate a 2.2k or even 1.8k peak player would be. A player who peaks at 1.2k or even 1k should be just as viable in this league as one who peaks at 2.2k, because its who they are that really matters to us, not how well they predict or how much fake money they can spend. Not viable in the sense that they win more often or score as often, but viable in the sense that they can earn a roster spot. Obviously, HO has made efforts to make this path easier, by increasing twitter money, making grading quicker, creating new jobs and hiring new people.

But easily the biggest influence on these players would be simply lowering the bar.

If we implement 4th lines, the barrier of entry becomes lower and our community grows not just in number, but also in diversity of character. There are plenty of great people out there who just don’t have the time or the dedication to earn 1600 TPE. Not only would we see greater diversity of character and ability, I believe that of the players we currently have, fewer of them with retire due to “life stuff”. How many retirement posts have you seen that read “I am really busy the last couple of months so i cant keep up” or “I am too stressed to handle it” or “I have burnt out”. Many people quit this way because they view their player as having fallen behind, or having become a burden on the team, or not being able to withstand a period of inactivity in their career. By lowering the bar, fewer people would see their player as falling behind or out of place. Fewer, but not all.

Implementing 4th lines opens a path for worse players. And worse players is what we want, because not only does it keep the league healthy in terms of activity, it also makes great players BETTER.

That’s right. Two-Kay McFuckerson, the league’s star player, can be that much better by adding lines to go up against. Comparatively, she becomes a better player simply by worse players existing. And this is how the world works. Everything is relative. Remember when that average guy went to the future in Idiocracy? You could be that man! Okay, bad example. We don’t want to be idiocracy, but you get my point. When the average player’s TPE is lowered slightly by adding 4th lines, the better players shine more. It creates a diversity of player skill and ability.

And isn’t that what we want? A dream worth chasing? Players worth looking up to? No one wants to play in a flat league where bad players don’t exist.

I’ll be honest, and this is something I've heard from a number of individuals (you heard this? biggly, the best individuals), we would LOVE to be that 4th line forward. We would love to be that gritty shutdown guy, that role player who doesn’t steal the spotlight, but uses what he has to the best of his ability. There’s no room for a grit guy in most rosters. Not much room, at least. A shutdown forward doesn’t get you far. If you’re calculating whether or not you want a goon on your roster, you’re wondering if it’s worth having one third of your forward lines be ineffective. But one fourth? Now maybe that’s worth it. Especially on a line designed to shut down other lines (traditionally).

I’ve also heard from a number of players that they want to spend as little time in the J as possible. Part of this is a dislike for the J, part of this is a dislike for the cap and how bad it feels to earn TPE and sit on it for 3 seasons. Right now, it’s pretty easy to stay down for all 4 seasons if you want. Pretty much every team is accommodating in that endeavor and won’t call you up prematurely. But for those that want more seasons in the SHL, the way is shut by 700-1,000 TPE forwards. Mathematically speaking, there’s just no chance to crack a 3rd line in your 2nd or 3rd season. And this makes sense, because you’d be played against other teams’ 3rd lines, which are traditionally 5th or 6th season forwards headed towards or beyond 1,000 TPE. So not only is your roster spot likely to be taken anyway, if you did come up early you’d mostly be facing better players.

By adding a 4th line, we open an avenue for players to enter the SHL earlier as weaker players. This is not a mandatory avenue that all players must go down, since teams can keep players buried in the minors as long as they want, and again, most teams are accommodating in that because players have pretty much all the power in terms of contract negotiations. This avenue is also mostly populated by weaker players as well, so you can remain competitive in your limited ice time. This does, however, mean that occasionally you will need to play against much better lines, as line matching happens to go. So you get a taste of what you’re up against too, for better or worse.

One big caveat is yes, the J is the most impacted by this shortage of players. I recognize that, but also I think all of us should recognize that this isn’t a permanent problem. But this is a problem best had early, before we are scrambling to expand AGAIN because we don’t have enough spots.

Expansion

So let’s talk about expansion. Every once in awhile, the league grows to a point where we need to expand. We go through an expansion draft, add new teams, hire new GMs, etc etc. And while all of this is good in some ways, it’s also not the only way of expanding. Enter 4th lines (for the millionth time this media). With 18 teams adding 3 forwards each, we open up 54 roster spots, equivalent to almost 3 whole teams WITHOUT stealing players from other rosters, hiring additional GMs, expanding the draft system, modifying the schedule, adding games to the season, expanding divisions, changing the playoff format, etc etc.

Make no mistake, 4th lines are not an easy fix, and that’s not the argument I’m presenting. What I am saying is that this has the least negative impact and the most positive impact. It requires a lot of work, just like an expansion would, but moving forward it puts us in a better position to retain more players while expanding the league without taking things from other teams or changing the way the season plays out. We take the idea of modifying the season and instead modify the individual games by changing the ice time forwards generally receive. And the benefit is 54 more roster spots and 3 more per expansion team in the future. And the longer we wait, the harder it will be to implement that 4th line.

I want to talk about drafting as well, and we might as well lay out my personal bias. There are teams out there that draft exceptionally well. To name one obvious one, Buffalo. Teams like buffalo seem to select consistent, long term earners in the later rounds, and somehow those mother fuckers also manage to collect a 3rd overall they can trade for MORE picks. I forget what season, but they’ve basically been riding one of their 1OA picks in the 20s or 30s for a few years now, flipping it into progressively more and more picks as the trade tree expands.

Other teams, like Tampa, have a glut of picks. More picks than we can actually roster. And while it’s a good problem to have, it’s also a really painful problem. We have to make tough roster decisions, and I mention this only to make known my personal bias. I want to keep all of these guys, because they’re great. But, we can’t. And yes, the solution to that is to not pick so many guys, or consolidate picks. But this is the path we’ve chosen, and I’m not saying its a reason to add 4th lines, I’m saying its part of the reason I want them. But imagine a world where you COULD draft more players because you have the roster space to do so.

So, either situation currently doesn’t feel great. If you’re a team like buffalo, you play well AND you draft well, you’ve got a roster full of elite talent and you’ve got like 3 or 4 SHL ready players in the pipe with nowhere to go. Your only course really is to trade those players while they hold value and aren’t free agents. If you’re a team like tampa, you’ve rebuilt your team, now every season you basically want to sit on your hands and not draft anyone.

And in either situation, you’re hamstrung by roster space. You’re effectively chained closer to the other teams, who maybe haven’t drafted well or haven’t drafted a lot but have solid rosters nonetheless. What is the edge that drafting well can give you? Well….not much. But, by opening 4th lines, a team who drafts deep can play deep. A team like buffalo can be the Tampa Bay Lighting of the SHL, or even a competitive team like the Steelhawks can draft a solid player and not wonder if they should boot a vetern just so they don’t lose out on draft capital. You can be the 2002 Detroit Red Wings. You can put Pavel Datsyuk on the 4th fucking line with Brett God Damned “We Went Blues” Hull.

Again, this allows better teams to flourish and creates a wider gap between worse teams. Now maybe for you, this is an argument against 4th lines. You don’t want to be the S54 Tampa Bay Barracuda, going 0-50 because your roster is swiss cheese, meanwhile records are being broken because players in your division got 50% of their goals from your games. But at the same time, right now at the very top, there’s very little wiggle room. We’re all constrained by the same limiter, the salary cap. And while the salary cap would increase to allow a 4th line, it wouldn’t increase to the factor that you could actually deploy the 2002 Detroit Red Wings. Depending on the increase, you have limited cash for each forward spot. In this situation a team isn’t trading for Theo Morgan or Ola Wagstrom to add that 4th line depth, because they’re still constrained by the cap. But maybe they can trade for a career depth piece? Or waning veteran? Maybe they can pull a Ray Borque?

So while teams like Hamilton and Buffalo can extend their depth somewhat, they still have to look out for deeper “lesser” teams, who may not have the equivalent of $10m+ players at the top, but who could have 2nd, 3rd, and 4th lines full of $4m players, meanwhile theirs is filled with $2.5m players. There’s some overlap, yes? So in order to be competitive and remain competitive, teams need to utilize this extra tool effectively or get left behind by teams that do, because their top line may score 3 goals, but what if their bottom 6 gets scored on 3 times because they lack depth?

A 4th line is no different from proper tactics and roles. It allows both great and bad teams more control over how well they put together a roster. Teams with great players but bad rosters will lose to teams with both great players and rosters. And teams with bad players and bad rosters will lose to teams with bad players and great rosters. This is the same argument we’ve had for GM agency vs Player agency in regards to player roles. To some degree, GM agency is good for this league. The more control a GM has, the more good GMs can separate themselves from bad ones. And that’s good for the league, so long as players have the right amount of agency themselves.

Also with drafting, it seems like past the 3rd round, there’s not a whole lot going on. This past season, more than half the teams passed in the 3rd round, ending their draft for the night. This is due to draft classes being smaller and the rounds being 2 teams bigger. But this is also due to the fact that at some point, it’s just not worth it for teams to select a player. It’s not worth prospecting for gold because past a certain number of prospects you wouldn’t be able to roster them anyway. And if they’re that far behind in the draft class, there’s basically no catching up.

This leads us, again, back to the diversity of player types and player skills we talked about earlier. If you are playing this league casually, you may not even get drafted. And if you do, good luck cracking a lineup. Players can see this in their future. They know that they’re 200 TPE behind by year 3 and that their SHL team has drafted a player 3 seasons younger who is catching up to you. The players can do math, and knowing that they won’t make a roster is debilitating. It causes players to retire or worse, users to quit altogether. By giving them a potential home as a lesser player, we allow our draft classes to grow every season without losing so much “chaff”.

The Fantasy

I think it’s important to consider the “head-cannon” of every individual on this site. The fantasy of being a player in the SHL is no small thing. It is a powerful motivator for many.

And that’s why 4th forwards are a must for anyone hoping to emulate the professional hockey experience. It helps solidify the fantasy, the same way that the IIHF helps add to the fiction of being a hockey player representing a country.

For many of you, this is a small point. And maybe it is. I wouldn’t make every decision based on how well it fits with the fantasy. Certainly, this league has not. But, we cannot either ignore it altogether. If we’re viewing this decision as a balanced scale, this point could tip the scales.

We always want to be cognizant of that fantasy, because that’s a key draw for our recruitment audiences. It’s part of our recruitment messages. It’s the same thing that drives play in pen-and-paper RPGs, or in video games, or indeed in any kind of role play.

And that’s what we’re doing, if it’s not clear. We’re role-playing. Some more than others. Some not at all, and that too is valid. For sure, I think the community is the foundation of this league, but let’s not pretend for a moment that the role-play isn’t integral. People build players for the express purpose of doing a THING. They want to be the hitting guy, or the defense guy, or the sniper guy, or the speedy guy. They want to be part of a team that wins the fake internet cup.

And I don’t mean to be reductionist in a negative way. I think it’s beautiful and should be one of our priorities at all times. At the end of the day, the fantasy drives all we do. No one really cares about the numbers in and of themselves. They care about what the numbers mean in the fantasy. This is the reason we live-sim so many games throughout each season.

It’s legitimately THRILLING to watch a team 1 goal down have the puck in the replay at the end of the game. It’s a nail biter! Oh! My player has the puck, he shoots it….ITS IN! It’s going into overtime and MY PLAYER DID THAT.

That’s powerful.

I don’t mean to wax so poetic about this point for so long. But I want all of us to recognize that emulating real professional hockey is a big deal. Having 4th lines brings us one important step closer to aligning with that fantasy. You may say that only having 3 lines doesn’t break the fantasy so much, but I would argue it does. Again, it limits the diversity of player allowed in this league. That limits the fantasy you are “allowed” to have in this league. That limits the diversity of users who will stay on this site. Adding 4th lines opens up possibilities.

It’s not important that we take every path available to us, but the fact that the paths exist changes the landscape dramatically for the better.

Think of it this way: How special is it to you if you are on one of 3 paths? Compare that to being on one of 10 paths? One of 20? The point is, allowing that diversity is meaningful both in the numerics of running a team and in the concept of the hockey fantasy.

We Already Have 4th Lines

You read that right, and maybe you were thinking it this whole time. Both the SMJHL and IIHF (including WJC) have 4th lines. We already know how this works. We can and should do it for the biggest most important league on this site. This isn’t a foreign concept that no one has ever done before. I don’t know for how long, but since I’ve been on this site (nigh 2 years) we’ve had them, just not in the SHL.

Changing the Update Scale

I’ve heard-tell of this before and I want to address it momentarily. I’ve heard there’s talk of perhaps modifying the update scale so that it doesn’t feel bad for 2nd, 3rd, and 4th year players to run against the TPE cap. We all recognize the problem.

But why change the update scale when 4th lines help solve this problem? The thing blocking players from earning isn’t the update scale or the cap per se, it’s the fact that capped players can’t move up into the SHL. They are more or less forced to spend time in the J. Opening up 4th lines allows more players who are earning well above the cap to get a head start on the SHL careers if they want.

Anyway, I have limited info on what that could be or is actually, so I won’t say a lot about it. I just wanted to say that 4th lines help solve the same problem (and many others) that modifying the update scale does.

In Conclusion

Implement 4th Lines.

"I SAOD IN ORDER TO BEAT THE MAN YOU GOTTA PRAY TO TERRY

AND I AINT EFENHAD A SNICKERS YET" -Michael Fitted

3998 words ready for grading
triple pay, luke said I could