Create Account

(GRADED) Deep Dive #1 - Does Top Pick in the J translate to the SHL?
#1
(This post was last modified: 08-25-2021, 11:32 PM by leafs1997.)

Since the dawn of the league, people have looked at SMJHL Draft Position as a major point in their careers and see it to be important to go higher in the draft. The question is, how important is draft position really?

In this article, I am looking at the last ten first overall picks in the SMJHL Draft and where they ended up going in the SHL Draft later. This is to show that in the whirlwind world of the SMJHL Draft, it is neigh impossible to really get a good read on anything. It is also important we note the types of players who go first overall in the SMJHL.

To start, I want to highlight the ones who nailed it. In S53 and S59 the player who went first overall in the SMJHL – Mikkel Asmus Sondergard and Stan Din’desque, respectively – went first overall in their SHL Entry Draft. Similarly, in S56, Arsene Leclerc went first overall in the SMJHL Draft and went second in the SHL, which is basically the same as nailing that pick. Meanwhile for that draft, Jonathan Granstrom went third overall in the SMJHL and first overall in the SHL. That draft was perfectly landed.

Meanwhile, there are some who missed the mark badly, and there is a very interesting one here. In the S52 SMJHL Draft – the reddit draft, comparable to the most recent – Chris Cerullo went first overall. Cerullo is the only player in this ten season stretch who was a true rookie selected with the first pick, and in the SHL draft ended up going 43rd overall, the biggest drop we see in this survey.

That seems a turning point, as the next biggest drop was in S51 when Sabo Tage went first overall and 31st in the SHL Entry Draft. Since that point, it was recreates taken at every turn, with co-GMs being taken first on two occasions, and only two other players falling out of the first round entirely since then in Liam Slate from S54 and Aleksandrs Balcers from S58. Zdenko Beranek from S55 was close, going 18th overall in the first draft including Seattle and Atlanta in the SHL.

Ultimately, what we see from this list is that the SMJHL Draft does not really have any consistency in showing you what will happen in the SHL Draft. You could be the top pick and fall out to the third round, or you could be a top pick that manages to stay atop the world and make your way into the SHL as a high pick as well. This is an imperfect science, and at the SMJHL level having only days typically to scout, you’re probably best taking someone that is well known if you want them to be successful to the next level. Though, with how much of a crapshoot this is, maybe you’re best to just go with your gut and see what happens. Even a Cerullo can be pretty helpful for the long term for some of these teams.

This list is the players taken 1st overall in the SMJHL in the last 10 drafts and in parenthesis next to their name is where they were selected in the SHL draft.

S60 - Konstantin Selich (Co-GM, 40)
S59 - Stan Din'desque (1)
S58 - Aleksandrs Balcers (27)
S57 - Jean-Locke Zidane (Co-GM, 36)
S56 - Arsene Leclerc (2)
S55 - Zdenko Beranek (18)
S54 - Liam Slate (18)
S53 - Mikkel Asmus Sondergard (1)
S52 - Chris Cerullo (43)
S51 - Sabo Tage (31)

An old man's dream ended. A young man's vision of the future opened wide. Young men have visions, old men have dreams. But the place for old men to dream is beside the fire.
[Image: DOF5tXM.png]
[Image: tjyuut.jpg] 
Thanks to Jackson, Copenhagen, and Harry Hans!

GOING DOWN IN STYLE. TOAST4LYFE
Reply
#2

I regret nothing

Platoon Elk Elk Platoon
Argonauts Argonauts
PlatoonGermanyRaptors

[Image: AH23zKq.png]
Thank you karey, OrbitingDeath Ragnar, and sköldpaddor for sigs! 
[Image: BAL_Player_Page.png] [Image: BAL_Update.png]
Reply
#3

@JayWhy GRADED! +5 TPE

[Image: leafs1997.gif]
[Image: Eo2nBCt.png] [Image: gs89eGV.png] [Image: QtEp67y.png]
Reply




Users browsing this thread:
1 Guest(s)




Navigation

 

Extra Menu

 

About us

The Simulation Hockey League is a free online forums based sim league where you create your own fantasy hockey player. Join today and create your player, become a GM, get drafted, sign contracts, make trades and compete against hundreds of players from around the world.