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First Round Fantasy: New Hotness or Old Standbys?
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PremierBromanovRegistered Cool guy
Boy I wish I knew how to be good at fantasy. It's a competitive draft and your position in the draft means as much as the players you can pick. If you ask anyone in the league who they should pick first overall, you may get 2 or 3 answers. If you ask anyone in the league when they should take a defenseman or a goalie, you'll get 500 answers.
Truth is, most of us don't know. Least of all me. I think I've won fantasy 1 time on a throwaway player. But, as many of you know, I run the Fantasy Calculations Sheet, which is my attempt at visualizing data year to year. You can view this sheet as reference during this article, for any broad generalizations I might be making. Going to avoid the info dump. During my time maintaining and improving this sheet, I've learned one important fact: I don't know what I'm doing. So if you're looking for fantasy advice, you better keep looking. I do not have enough data to compare how players are picked versus how they perform (That's kev's territory) but there are a few players that stand out and I'd like to get paid to write some bullshit about them. Caveats: "Last 3" refers to an average rank placement for the last 3 seasons, not an actual rank of the combined total of fantasy points in the last 3 seasons. That is, it is an actual average of the sum of the ranks, not a sum of the fantasy points. The difference here is likely small, but it's not exactly "truth". New-comers Here are the "New-comers", players who have only recently begun to shine bright in the fantasy space. Red Kirkby - Forward Previous Rank: 1st Last 3: 33rd Red Kirkby is on everyone's mind this season. Only the very wise could have seen his ascent happening so quickly. In my group, he went completely undrafted and I picked him up on waivers. The startling thing about Kirkby was how quickly he ascended during the season. Almost right out of the gate, he was 100 points ahead of everyone. He finished with a record-setting 612 points, the first player to break 600 points, just edging out fellow new-comer Mikko Rashford. Mikko Rashford - Forward Previous Rank: 2nd Last 3: 54th Another popular early pick seems to be Mikko Rashford. After Red skyrocketed early in the standings, Rashford caught up in the end, only 2 points behind Red Kirkby and both players about 40 ahead of the next closest players. Again, as a newcomer, he was a complete whiff if you had picked him up the season before. He placed 55th and 105th the previous two seasons. But, many users are hopeful that he will continue his success with the Aurora, who seem to have a knack for getting the most out of a superstar, although he is 2 seasons older than Red Kirkby. Alexi Piastri - Forward Previous Rank: 21st Last 3: 21st Piastri is lesser known than the rest of the picks, possibly because this is his first season in the SHL. Still, he did not disappoint, opening at 21st overall. It is pretty much unheard of for a rookie to crack the top 100, let alone the top 25. A lot of this is due to his deployment, with nearly 22 minutes a night, just behind other top forwards like Rashford and Kirkby. The question will be if he can repeat his success Lias Ekholm-Gunnarsson - Forward Previous Rank: 3rd Last 3: 32nd Lias Ekholm-Gunnarsson of course deserves some recognition same as the others. He catapulted himself into 3rd place and although he wasn't challenging records the same way the other two were, he'd be 1st in just about any other season. That's a massive improvement from 61st the year before. Christian Kinsinger - Defense Previous Rank: 9th Last 3: 20th It may be no surprise to see another Aurora player up here, but Kinsinger is special because he's the best defenseman from last season. Kinsinger has seen similar growth to a lot of names up here, going from 31st the season before all the way to top 10 as a defenseman. He's hitting his stride and the only real question is if Winnipeg will deploy him the same as last year. Viktor Krunk - Forward Previous Rank: 7th Last 3: 30th Krunk is another forward with explosive growth the last 2 seasons. At this point a pattern emerges. I'm sorry to say to Viktor but there's nothing I can say here that hasn't already been said for a number of forwards. He's on a potential trajectory to consistent top 10 appearances. Hans Graf - Defense Previous Rank: 11th Last 3: 17th Hans is building off a strong couple of seasons. In terms of "new-comers" he might be considered a fringe new-comer, almost an old standby with a 23rd rank the year previous. Still, he's a defenseman and it's pretty difficult to crack the top 10 these days unless you're a forward. Ben Der - Defense Previous Rank: 12th Last 3: 36th Ben Der emerges as another young defensive stud, following that classic pattern. 131 -> 59 -> 12. He's a very very young defenseman to be on this list, and the question on everyone's mind will be if his placement in the top 15 will be a fluke or a new standard. Sven Svechnikov - Defense Previous Rank: 14th Last 3: 30th Hardly a new-comer to the league, but Sven has always been on the cusp of greatness in fantasy. Finally he's reached the top 15. That's a great achievement for a defenseman. What used to be a solid late defense pickup looks more and more like a win early. However, his age raises questions to the consistency he can target. The thing about these new-comers is that it seems just as likely that a player will gain 30 ranks season to season as they will lose it. We've seen quite often players crack the top 10 in one season, and then regress to 50, making them a whiff for an early pick. However, in contrast to players who have a history of success, it is far less likely that a player will maintain a top 10 rank for more than 3 seasons. So there seems to be 2 outcomes: Either a top player will maintain it for 3 seasons, or they will drop out immediately. The hope is that these new-comers will be good for the next 3 seasons. But, you can't win by chasing the lead. You have to find it first. And here they come, the Old Standbys. Old Standbys Old standbys are what they sound like. They've been putting up good numbers for awhile. The question is not if they will fall off, but when. Time comes for us all. Can we trust that they will continue their success, the way the greats have in the past? I'm talking Aaron Wilson, Lyle Odelein III, Dick Clapper, Samuel Michaud. Konstantin Selich - Forward Previous Rank: 5th Last 3: 3rd With 3 appearances in the top 5 in the last 3 seasons, Selich has become a household name for fantasy players who pay attention. Selich is, from a numbers standpoint, the current MVP of the fantasy world. Evil AllBran - Forward Previous Rank: 4th Last 3: 4th Another big name in fantasy lately. If Evil AllBran is following a destined path, then he is only beginning his 3rd season in the top 10. we hope. However, it's not unheard of for a player to stop being the top dawg after only 2 seasons. See Gonzo Gobbledygook. Max Manning - Forward Previous Rank: 8th Last 3: 7th Perhaps a rival to Selich, Max Manning is another top tier earner that is taken early pretty often. And for good reason. He's been in the top 10 for 3 seasons now and the only question is if he can do it again. He's not terribly old yet, so there's still a lot of fight in Max. It will depend largely on his deployment. Gonzo Gobbledygook - Forward Previous Rank: 37th Last 3: 22nd As mentioned previously, Gonzo is somewhat in the dog-house last season. Placing just 37th, he was a disappointment for a lot of players. However, as we also said earlier, it's not unheard of for a player to dip 30 ranks for a season and rebound back. Gonzo had an impressive 2 seasons in 68 and 69, finishing 8th and 6th respectively. Those rankings still put him in the top 10 of the last 3 seasons, but the consistency beyond the top 5 looks a little iffy. Eero Makela - Defense Previous Rank: 24th Last 3: 19th Eero may not have the incredible numbers of some of the other standbys, but the consistency is something you look for in a potential pick. You likely aren't taking Eero in the early first round, but if you're a "Defense first" kind of drafter, it doesn't get better than Makela. He has a long history going back to S65 of impressive fantasy performances, topping out at 2nd overall! Lately, Eero has slowed down a touch, as age does to us all. But, it feels like Eero defies conventional wisdom and continues to be a solid earner. Eero is by far the best performing defenseman of the last 3 seasons, and likely the last 7. Angus McFife XVIII - Defense Previous Rank: 20th Last 3: 19th Angus may not have the record of a powerhouse like Makela, but he's been putting up consistently good numbers the last 3 seasons. His age is a consideration, only 1 season younger than his contemporary, but beyond Makela there really is no other defenseman with the consistency we look for in the last 3 seasons. Adelie de Pengu - Defense Previous Rank: 35th Last 3: 22nd His numbers may not look as impressive as the forwards, but that's just the nature of a defenseman. Pengu is a bit on the early side of an "old standby" but he has promising results, with an appearance in the top 10 in S69 with a bit of a regression to 35th last season. Pengu is still fairly young, and could be a potential target for steady production for a mid-round defensive pickup. Diamonds in the Rough? And here we do a bunch of guesswork based on trends. Here are players who are young-ish and have trajectory that leads me to believe they could break out this season, if only they are deployed that way. As always, if you're looking for steals in the draft, you better know what the GMs are up to. And I do not. Benjamin Surkhi-Ze'ev - Forward Previous Rank: 51st Last 3: 50th Benjamin Surkhi-Ze'ev is a very young forward who has been hitting 50th pretty consistently the last 2 seasons. He could emerge in the top 20 if things go well. Hodor - Defenseman Previous Rank: 67th Last 3: 67th Hodor only has one season under his belt, but 67th is no small feat for a rookie. I'd warn potential draftees that his success in Texas is largely do his huge stockpile of blocked shots, something that won't be consistent as the team improves. Consider how you think Texas will perform and if you think Hodor will be the type of defenseman that shows up on the score sheet. Sophie Bordeleau - Forward Previous Rank: 57th Last 3: 57th Sophie is also a very young player, but she's consistently seen the 50 to 60 range. A young player like that has potential to do great. Spack Jarrow - Forward Previous Rank: 27th Last 3: 57th Spack Jarrow had an impressive 6th season, nearly entering the top 25. The last 3 seasons havent looked that nice for him, but if his trajectory stays true, he could be a solid earner And thats enough guesswork and bullshittery for today. If you take these players listed as "Must picks", you are a fool. Look at the data yourself and draw a conclusion based on your draft position. The hope with this article is to bring to light some data points you might not be aware of and to get paid doing it.
KevenGraphic Graders Posting Freak
JamesTModerators Cozy Connoisseur
KevenGraphic Graders Posting Freak
PremierBromanovRegistered Cool guy |
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