So I've spoken a little bit to King about this on Discord but just to sort of paste my thoughts into here to open it up for anyone else to chew on..
First I would say sure, it doesn't hurt to change regression, especially if we're changing the later tiers or adding an extra tier. Most players that we see don't keep their player that long anyway, so it wouldn't negatively affect those players who aren't earning maximum TPE, but would give some incentive to recreate to those who are. That said, I don't know that we need to be offering that incentive.
On the other hand, I don't know that allowing people to prolong their careers in this way is a negative thing. I think that encouraging recreation is important primarily for members who are losing interest in the player or position they're in, and could benefit from the excitement of the drafts and starting anew. If a player is earning 190 TPE/season in their fifteenth season, I'm not concerned about that members activity and doing anything to jump-start it and retain that member, if that makes sense. We're not fearful of losing that member.
And I think my final point, which is related, is that our members who earn 190 TPE /season are our most motivated members and while I understand they'd want to keep their player for a while and break records and help their team, at a certain point, because those members are as motivated to continuously earn that much TPE, I don't know that they'd be comfortable floating around the range that it sort of stagnates at.
If you are a player who earns that much TPE, you have to sort of wrestle with why you would want to put in the maximum effort to have a player at 800 TPE when you could have a new player reaching 2000 much sooner. I think this goes back to our tag-line with recruiting and that's that you can make the player you want, and create the legacy you want. If that is to have a player who plays to a ripe old age like Jagr, then that's great, it adds to the richness, diversity, and history of our league. You just have to be ok with putting in much more work for a much worse player than those who aren't fighting regression.
So I think my thoughts are more in line with not really seeing a huge issue because I think it's a "problem" that remedies itself in certain ways. There are other motivators out there to retire.
I guess it comes down to why we think this is a problem, or if we do at all. If it's that we want people retiring to open spots on rosters for players who wait in the SMJHL for three seasons, then I don't think this fixes that. It just speeds up the same cycle and makes someone else wait instead. If the issue is that we don't like careers being this long, then I think that's a separate discussion, but I personally don't have a problem with it.
I mean sure, a 30-season career is a bit outrageous and maybe at that point we can look at simply adding a much more severe tier, not to say "you can't play any longer", but to say "this is getting excessive and we're going to edge you out so this doesn't go on for 20 more seasons", and jump the percentage to 40 or 50%. But I don't know that we need to modify the existing scale to go along with it. I'm not opposed to it, either, though.
09-12-2018, 07:46 PMteztify Wrote: So I've spoken a little bit to King about this on Discord but just to sort of paste my thoughts into here to open it up for anyone else to chew on..
First I would say sure, it doesn't hurt to change regression, especially if we're changing the later tiers or adding an extra tier. Most players that we see don't keep their player that long anyway, so it wouldn't negatively affect those players who aren't earning maximum TPE, but would give some incentive to recreate to those who are. That said, I don't know that we need to be offering that incentive.
On the other hand, I don't know that allowing people to prolong their careers in this way is a negative thing. I think that encouraging recreation is important primarily for members who are losing interest in the player or position they're in, and could benefit from the excitement of the drafts and starting anew. If a player is earning 190 TPE/season in their fifteenth season, I'm not concerned about that members activity and doing anything to jump-start it and retain that member, if that makes sense. We're not fearful of losing that member.
And I think my final point, which is related, is that our members who earn 190 TPE /season are our most motivated members and while I understand they'd want to keep their player for a while and break records and help their team, at a certain point, because those members are as motivated to continuously earn that much TPE, I don't know that they'd be comfortable floating around the range that it sort of stagnates at.
If you are a player who earns that much TPE, you have to sort of wrestle with why you would want to put in the maximum effort to have a player at 800 TPE when you could have a new player reaching 2000 much sooner. I think this goes back to our tag-line with recruiting and that's that you can make the player you want, and create the legacy you want. If that is to have a player who plays to a ripe old age like Jagr, then that's great, it adds to the richness, diversity, and history of our league. You just have to be ok with putting in much more work for a much worse player than those who aren't fighting regression.
So I think my thoughts are more in line with not really seeing a huge issue because I think it's a "problem" that remedies itself in certain ways. There are other motivators out there to retire.
I guess it comes down to why we think this is a problem, or if we do at all. If it's that we want people retiring to open spots on rosters for players who wait in the SMJHL for three seasons, then I don't think this fixes that. It just speeds up the same cycle and makes someone else wait instead. If the issue is that we don't like careers being this long, then I think that's a separate discussion, but I personally don't have a problem with it.
I mean sure, a 30-season career is a bit outrageous and maybe at that point we can look at simply adding a much more severe tier, not to say "you can't play any longer", but to say "this is getting excessive and we're going to edge you out so this doesn't go on for 20 more seasons", and jump the percentage to 40 or 50%. But I don't know that we need to modify the existing scale to go along with it. I'm not opposed to it, either, though.
I would be livid if this happened. If I want to have an 800 TPE player that isn't very useful for a long time why is that a problem? I'm not going to be useful to any team except as a third liner, and that's if I'm earning the maximum amount of TPE every season.
08-17-2018, 07:10 PMMike Izzy Wrote: ahhh this suggestion is looking to make a change just for the sake of a change. Theres no data to back this up as the league doesnt have a problem with our players staying too long.. weve seen in the NHL with a guy like Jagr and in baseball with Bartolo that the accasional odd duck will stick around playing 25+ years for the love of the game, so theres presidence that this happens IRL..so no reason why it shouldnt happen here. again most players recreate way before 20 seasons out of boredom or frustration of regression..
Ok want data? If you earn 170 TPE per season and are dealing with 20% regression, here is what happens:
850 x 0.2 = 170
850 - 170 = 680
An off-season updated can consist of around 80 TPE with equipment... So in this case you can basically have a player hovering around 750-850 TPE indefinitely. Yeah, that's flawed.
08-24-2018, 01:08 PMWannabeFinn Wrote: Ah yes, the veteran meme player. A surefire bet for maybe 400 TPE
The adjustments y'all are suggesting are way too drastic and way too complicated. Just add another 1%, maybe 2% at most for each season after you first hit the 20% thresh-hold. That eliminates the possibility of theoretically staying forever, while still giving players the chance to keep holding on for Jagr years if that's what they really want to do.
09-13-2018, 09:06 AM(This post was last modified: 09-13-2018, 09:46 AM by DeletedAtUserRequest.)
09-13-2018, 07:53 AMBaelor Swift Wrote:
08-17-2018, 07:10 PMMike Izzy Wrote: ahhh this suggestion is looking to make a change just for the sake of a change. Theres no data to back this up as the league doesnt have a problem with our players staying too long.. weve seen in the NHL with a guy like Jagr and in baseball with Bartolo that the accasional odd duck will stick around playing 25+ years for the love of the game, so theres presidence that this happens IRL..so no reason why it shouldnt happen here. again most players recreate way before 20 seasons out of boredom or frustration of regression..
Ok want data? If you earn 170 TPE per season and are dealing with 20% regression, here is what happens:
850 x 0.2 = 170
850 - 170 = 680
An off-season updated can consist of around 80 TPE with equipment... So in this case you can basically have a player hovering around 750-850 TPE indefinitely. Yeah, that's flawed.
Hi Baelor
The data I’m talking about lies within the number of people that we are actually talking about.. and that is........ 2 of 1000 lifetime members. 99.8% of every member ever to lace up a virtual skate never comes close to sticking around that long with there player. Those players would fall under the ‘anomoly’ status.
As an analogy.. It’s like the government making a law to lower the social security checks for those who reach there 124th birthday.
Why would the league make a change to shut down the .00.2% of the people on the site? We should embrace them in a Jagr type fashion (at least until the data suggests a growing number of players staying indefinitely)
But if there is a need on this site to find a definitive end game to a career, start the 25% at season 24-25...that’s a 42 year old player for someone that jumps into the SMJHL at 18.. as there’s president for players to play into there low 40’s.
09-13-2018, 09:34 AM(This post was last modified: 09-13-2018, 09:35 AM by Slappydoodle.)
Definitely no hard cap. That should be out of the question. Upping the percentage at 25 years seems to make excellent sense. As far as the exact percentage, it should allow for a slow disintegration into irrelevance if that’s what the user desires to stay and do. 25 percent seems fair.
Definitely no sliding scales or varying numbers craziness. That’s just bananas.
08-17-2018, 07:10 PMMike Izzy Wrote: ahhh this suggestion is looking to make a change just for the sake of a change. Theres no data to back this up as the league doesnt have a problem with our players staying too long.. weve seen in the NHL with a guy like Jagr and in baseball with Bartolo that the accasional odd duck will stick around playing 25+ years for the love of the game, so theres presidence that this happens IRL..so no reason why it shouldnt happen here. again most players recreate way before 20 seasons out of boredom or frustration of regression..
Ok want data? If you earn 170 TPE per season and are dealing with 20% regression, here is what happens:
850 x 0.2 = 170
850 - 170 = 680
An off-season updated can consist of around 80 TPE with equipment... So in this case you can basically have a player hovering around 750-850 TPE indefinitely. Yeah, that's flawed.
Hi Baelor
The data I’m talking about lies within the number of people that we are actually talking about.. and that is........ 2 of 1000 lifetime members. 99.8% of every member ever to lace up a virtual skate never comes close to sticking around that long with there player. Those players would fall under the ‘anomoly’ status.
As an analogy.. It’s like the government making a law to lower the social security checks for those who reach there 124th birthday.
Why would the league make a change to shut down the .00.2% of the people on the site? We should embrace them in a Jagr type fashion (at least until the data suggests a growing number of players staying indefinitely)
But if there is a need on this site to find a definitive end game to a career, start the 25% at season 24-25...that’s a 42 year old player for someone that jumps into the SMJHL at 18.. as there’s president for players to play into there low 40’s.
So, like, you want to avoid pre-emptively fixing a problem and rather wait for it to become a real problem.
08-24-2018, 01:08 PMWannabeFinn Wrote: Ah yes, the veteran meme player. A surefire bet for maybe 400 TPE
09-13-2018, 10:11 AM(This post was last modified: 09-13-2018, 10:13 AM by DeletedAtUserRequest.)
09-13-2018, 09:59 AMBaelor Swift Wrote:
09-13-2018, 09:06 AMMike Izzy Wrote:
09-13-2018, 07:53 AMBaelor Swift Wrote:
08-17-2018, 07:10 PMMike Izzy Wrote: ahhh this suggestion is looking to make a change just for the sake of a change. Theres no data to back this up as the league doesnt have a problem with our players staying too long.. weve seen in the NHL with a guy like Jagr and in baseball with Bartolo that the accasional odd duck will stick around playing 25+ years for the love of the game, so theres presidence that this happens IRL..so no reason why it shouldnt happen here. again most players recreate way before 20 seasons out of boredom or frustration of regression..
Ok want data? If you earn 170 TPE per season and are dealing with 20% regression, here is what happens:
850 x 0.2 = 170
850 - 170 = 680
An off-season updated can consist of around 80 TPE with equipment... So in this case you can basically have a player hovering around 750-850 TPE indefinitely. Yeah, that's flawed.
Hi Baelor
The data I’m talking about lies within the number of people that we are actually talking about.. and that is........ 2 of 1000 lifetime members. 99.8% of every member ever to lace up a virtual skate never comes close to sticking around that long with there player. Those players would fall under the ‘anomoly’ status.
As an analogy.. It’s like the government making a law to lower the social security checks for those who reach there 124th birthday.
Why would the league make a change to shut down the .00.2% of the people on the site? We should embrace them in a Jagr type fashion (at least until the data suggests a growing number of players staying indefinitely)
But if there is a need on this site to find a definitive end game to a career, start the 25% at season 24-25...that’s a 42 year old player for someone that jumps into the SMJHL at 18.. as there’s president for players to play into there low 40’s.
So, like, you want to avoid pre-emptively fixing a problem and rather wait for it to become a real problem.
But if there is a need on this site to find a definitive end game to a career, start the 25% at season 24-25...that’s a 42 year old player for someone that jumps into the SMJHL at 18.. as there’s president for players to play into there low 40’s.
09-12-2018, 06:09 PMraymond3000 Wrote: Maybe we can simplify regression altogether and just make the regression percentage equal to the number of seasons played?
Wow.. I said this half an hour ago to King in discord. Only issue is it makes Eggy's life a bit harder when he has to write the regression post. I like the idea of it, but if we are really just trying to tackle the outliers who drag on their career, just making regression go to 30% after season 25 would do it.
Slightly changing topics here, but it can't be too difficult to whip up a spreadsheet that automatically generates the regression list. King already has a list with all the SHL players, their draft year, and their TPE. Of course, someone would still have to manually input TPE totals, but that should make Eggy's life easier.
I have one already. If I didn't have one it would be a multi-day process instead of a multi-hour process.
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