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+---- Thread: S53 WFT #1 - Bold Predictions (/showthread.php?tid=104961)
RE: S53 WFT #1 - Bold Predictions - LordBirdman - 03-28-2020
Quote:Katth - Toronto will not finish last in the league
I mean absolute zero disrespect to Toronto (in fact, I think the North Stars will be a scary team before the SHL knows it and have a lot of respect for Toronto's front office), but this statement is more silly than bold. Toronto will indeed finish last and it won't even be close. Toronto is a rebuilding team with a weak lineup which is exacerbated by the fact that they play in a very strong division.
I will begin my dissertation on why Toronto will finish last by leveraging the brain trust at the Casino. Everybody knows the smartest people in Las Vegas work for the bookmakers and the SHL is no different. The SHL Casino is similarly filled with big brains that expertly modeled the over/under on wins for every team for S53, with real SHL dollars at stake. Toronto's over/under for wins this year is 10.5, 6 games lower than the next team (Texas). Of the 5 lowest teams by Casino over/under, Toronto is far and away the lowest and the remaining four teams are within 2 games of each other. The ranking of the Casino over/under for the bottom 5 teams, from lowest to highest, are as follows: Toronto (10.5), Texas (16.5), Tampa Bay (17.5), Minnesota (18.5), West Kendall (18.5). Given the analytical minds present at the Casino, it seems highly unlikely that one of the other bottom 5 teams will finish lower than Toronto given the aforementioned delta in expected wins.
While this indicator is significant, an even better indicator of expected success is roster TPE. Of the previously mentioned expected bottom 5 teams, Toronto has the lowest average and median TPE at 686 and 605, respectively. Toronto is over 100 TPE lower than the next team in both average and median team TPE. The picture becomes even grimmer when you exclude Toronto’s goalie position, as Toronto’s stellar net minder Harry Carpet bolsters the team’s overall statistics. See below for a table of the expected bottom 5 team rosters by position and TPE.
![[Image: unknown.png]](https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/668218443115397133/693629177894797392/unknown.png)
Clearly Toronto has the worst roster. While Carpet surely will steal a few games, it won’t be enough for Toronto to finish better than last.
This analysis is also excluding the newfound ability for Toronto to actively tank with crappy tactics. I’m of the belief that if Toronto finds themselves contending for the playoffs, they will switch tactics to something weird like a mid-90’s neutral zone trap. Simply put, the switch to FHM should allow Toronto to actively tank if they so choose.
Lastly, Toronto will finish in last place due to the strength of their division and associated strength of schedule. The North Stars play in the Great Lakes Division alongside the Hamilton Steelhawks, Chicago Syndicate, and Buffalo Stampede. Each of these teams made the playoffs last year and look to do so again this year. I asked Toronto’s GM, @ml002, how committed to tanking he was this year and he stated:
Quote:As much as we are committed to tanking I think it just comes down to the division we play in. The Great Lakes boasts three playoff caliber teams which I think easily just means we're likely to get bullied in division which makes up the majority of our schedule
In conclusion, Toronto will finish last place in the SHL in S53.
RE: S53 WFT #1 - Bold Predictions - ml002 - 03-28-2020
03-28-2020, 09:16 PMLordBirdman Wrote:Quote:Katth - Toronto will not finish last in the league
I mean absolute zero disrespect to Toronto (in fact, I think the North Stars will be a scary team before the SHL knows it and have a lot of respect for Toronto's front office), but this is statement is more silly than bold. Toronto will indeed finish last and it won't even be close. Toronto is a rebuilding team with a weak lineup which is exacerbated by the fact that they play in a very strong division.
I will begin my dissertation on why Toronto will finish last by leveraging the brain trust at the Casino. Everybody knows the smartest people in Las Vegas work for the bookmakers and the SHL is no different. The SHL Casino is similarly filled with big brains that expertly modeled the over/under on wins for every team for S53, with real SHL dollars at stake. Toronto's over/under for wins this year is 10.5, 6 games lower than the next team (Texas). Of the 5 lowest teams by Casino over/under, Toronto is far and away the lowest and the remaining four teams are within 2 games of each other. The ranking of the Casino over/under for the bottom 5 teams, from lowest to highest, are as follows: Toronto (10.5), Texas (16.5), Tampa Bay (17.5), Minnesota (18.5), West Kendall (18.5). Given the analytical minds present at the Casino, it seems highly unlikely that one of the other bottom 5 teams will finish lower than Toronto given the aforementioned delta in expected wins.
While this indicator is significant, an even better indicator of expected success is roster TPE. Of the previously mentioned expected bottom 5 teams, Toronto has the lowest average and median TPE at 686 and 605, respectively. Toronto is over 100 TPE lower than the next team in both average and median team TPE. The picture becomes even grimmer when you exclude Toronto’s goalie position, as Toronto’s stellar net minder Harry Carpet bolsters the team’s overall statistics. See below for a table of the expected bottom 5 team rosters by position and TPE.
Clearly Toronto has the worst roster. While Carpet surely will steal a few games, it won’t be enough for Toronto to finish better than last.
This analysis is also excluding the newfound ability for Toronto to actively tank with crappy tactics. I’m of the belief that if Toronto finds themselves contending for the playoffs, they will switch tactics to something weird like a mid-90’s neutral zone trap. Simply put, the switch to FHM should allow Toronto to actively tank if they so choose.
Lastly, Toronto will finish in last place due to the strength of their division and associated strength of schedule. The North Stars play in the Great Lakes Division alongside the Hamilton Steelhawks, Chicago Syndicate, and Buffalo Stampede. Each of these teams made the playoffs last year and look to do so again this year. I asked Toronto’s GM, @ml002, how committed to tanking he was this year and he stated:
Quote:As much as we are committed to tanking I think it just comes down to the division we play in. The Great Lakes boasts three playoff caliber teams which I think easily just means we're likely to get bullied in division which makes up the majority of our schedule
In conclusion, Toronto will finish last place in the SHL in S53.
Sir this is a Wendy's
RE: S53 WFT #1 - Bold Predictions - LordBirdman - 03-28-2020
03-28-2020, 09:21 PMml002 Wrote:Ok, in that case can you please stop putting mayo on your burgers? It's disturbing.03-28-2020, 09:16 PMLordBirdman Wrote: I mean absolute zero disrespect to Toronto (in fact, I think the North Stars will be a scary team before the SHL knows it and have a lot of respect for Toronto's front office), but this is statement is more silly than bold. Toronto will indeed finish last and it won't even be close. Toronto is a rebuilding team with a weak lineup which is exacerbated by the fact that they play in a very strong division.
I will begin my dissertation on why Toronto will finish last by leveraging the brain trust at the Casino. Everybody knows the smartest people in Las Vegas work for the bookmakers and the SHL is no different. The SHL Casino is similarly filled with big brains that expertly modeled the over/under on wins for every team for S53, with real SHL dollars at stake. Toronto's over/under for wins this year is 10.5, 6 games lower than the next team (Texas). Of the 5 lowest teams by Casino over/under, Toronto is far and away the lowest and the remaining four teams are within 2 games of each other. The ranking of the Casino over/under for the bottom 5 teams, from lowest to highest, are as follows: Toronto (10.5), Texas (16.5), Tampa Bay (17.5), Minnesota (18.5), West Kendall (18.5). Given the analytical minds present at the Casino, it seems highly unlikely that one of the other bottom 5 teams will finish lower than Toronto given the aforementioned delta in expected wins.
While this indicator is significant, an even better indicator of expected success is roster TPE. Of the previously mentioned expected bottom 5 teams, Toronto has the lowest average and median TPE at 686 and 605, respectively. Toronto is over 100 TPE lower than the next team in both average and median team TPE. The picture becomes even grimmer when you exclude Toronto’s goalie position, as Toronto’s stellar net minder Harry Carpet bolsters the team’s overall statistics. See below for a table of the expected bottom 5 team rosters by position and TPE.
Clearly Toronto has the worst roster. While Carpet surely will steal a few games, it won’t be enough for Toronto to finish better than last.
This analysis is also excluding the newfound ability for Toronto to actively tank with crappy tactics. I’m of the belief that if Toronto finds themselves contending for the playoffs, they will switch tactics to something weird like a mid-90’s neutral zone trap. Simply put, the switch to FHM should allow Toronto to actively tank if they so choose.
Lastly, Toronto will finish in last place due to the strength of their division and associated strength of schedule. The North Stars play in the Great Lakes Division alongside the Hamilton Steelhawks, Chicago Syndicate, and Buffalo Stampede. Each of these teams made the playoffs last year and look to do so again this year. I asked Toronto’s GM, @ml002, how committed to tanking he was this year and he stated:
In conclusion, Toronto will finish last place in the SHL in S53.
Sir this is a Wendy's
RE: S53 WFT #1 - Bold Predictions - juke - 03-28-2020
03-28-2020, 09:24 PMLordBirdman Wrote:03-28-2020, 09:21 PMml002 Wrote: Sir this is a Wendy'sOk, in that case can you please stop putting mayo on your burgers? It's disturbing.
This is the boldest take in the entire thread
RE: S53 WFT #1 - Bold Predictions - Nhamlet - 03-28-2020
03-28-2020, 09:27 PMSmalinowski7 Wrote:03-28-2020, 09:24 PMLordBirdman Wrote: Ok, in that case can you please stop putting mayo on your burgers? It's disturbing.
This is the boldest take in the entire thread
I think he should have TPE taken for that take.
RE: S53 WFT #1 - Bold Predictions - LordBirdman - 03-28-2020
03-28-2020, 09:28 PMNhamlet Wrote:Millennials killing mayo for good reason03-28-2020, 09:27 PMSmalinowski7 Wrote: This is the boldest take in the entire thread
I think he should have TPE taken for that take.
RE: S53 WFT #1 - Bold Predictions - suavemente - 03-28-2020
Donini - Winnipeg will make the playoffs
Winnipeg shminnipeg. New FHM means you can't use old team names, they will be the first casualty of the sim change. Mark my words, the Winnipeg jets will be cursed until they rebrand, let it be so.
RE: S53 WFT #1 - Bold Predictions - BDonini - 03-28-2020
Code:
bbjygm - Hamilton will do well and everybody will be very calm and cool about it when they doI was gonna say this predictions is the definition of bold but I think it's so beyond bold that bold isn't even an accurate way of describing it, I mean, they did well in the preseason and people were already up in arms about it lol
Code:
Katth - Toronto will not finish last in the leagueYea uhhhh Toronto has a much lower average TPE than every other bottom feeder by a decent amount, literally the only thing they have going for them is Harry Carpet and even that won't be enough to keep them from the basement.
Code:
Fordyford - Hamilton will finish dead last in the leagueDude if you thought aaronwilson tested a lot before imagine how much testing that guy's gonna do now that we're all stuck at home indefinitely, this man will sacrifice all his sleep before seeing Hamilton finish dead last, over his dead body will this happen.
Code:
hotdog - Aleister Cain will finally take home an award (it's not bold because he's got a ton of TPE but it is bold cuz we all know he stink)Nossir the long standing tradition of Aleister Cain underperforming must continue in FHM at all costs, it will be a sad day for all of us when Cain actually performs to his abilities and wins an award.
Code:
Puolivalmiste - TEX goalie White Goodman will be Rookie of the YearBetween the large amount of S50 rookies with 200+ more TPE than him and the fact that Texas stinks this very likely won't happen. Bad teams are bad in FHM and Goodman will likely have a difficult season ahead of him.
Code:
JayWhy - The Chicago Syndicate are going to be top 3 in the league in both goals for and goals againstHonestly this one just isn't even bold, like it'll happen almost certainly, we've all seen their preseason games. They're a really high scoring team with a leaky defense and it's not improbably at all to see this happen, certainly not bold.
Code:
Mike Izzy - In their 19th seasons, one of either Robert Phelps or Mike Izzy will win one of the awards for the S53 season.This is really bold, TPE is much more important in FHM than it was in STHS and it's difficult to get away with a stellar season in mid range TPE, both Izzy and Phelps have between 1300 and 1365 TPE which is barely even mid range, they probably won't be 1st liners on their teams and while they could still have decent seasons it's tough to see either be up for an award.
RE: S53 WFT #1 - Bold Predictions - JayWhy - 03-29-2020
Quote:Luke - Edmonton will miss the playoffs
As much as I want to be against this, I can see it happening. You look at the West, Edmonton is in a division with two teams who bought in some with of Winnipeg and Minnesota. They don't get as many easy games as other teams. I could see San Francisco, New Orleans, Calgary and Los Angeles making it by just a couple points because of the additional games against Texas for three of those.
RE: S53 WFT #1 - Bold Predictions - JayWhy - 03-29-2020
03-28-2020, 09:24 PMLordBirdman Wrote:Excuse me, sir? That's THE condiment to put on a burger. I thought you were a good person ... I see I've misjudged you.03-28-2020, 09:21 PMml002 Wrote: Sir this is a Wendy'sOk, in that case can you please stop putting mayo on your burgers? It's disturbing.
RE: S53 WFT #1 - Bold Predictions - ImShiny - 03-29-2020
Fordyford - Hamilton will finish dead last in the league
If Hamilton does well no matter what, there will be uproar. The hate for HAM will not go away for a while because they are sleazy people who do not deserve the love
RE: S53 WFT #1 - Bold Predictions - UrsinZ - 03-29-2020
Y-man - New England will still miss the playoffs
Against... I think new england will be very good this season. I like their team overall! Also i am cheering for them because the guys on the team are great!
RE: S53 WFT #1 - Bold Predictions - charlieconway - 03-29-2020
Quote:bbjygm - Hamilton will do well and everybody will be very calm and cool about it when they do
Hamilton does well.
The league actually takes it pretty well... for a time.
GMs around the league begin instructing their players on underhanded tactics and street rules fighting. Players begin wearing brass knuckles under their gloves. They line their elbow pads with barbed wire, and a few players even switch their skates for gloves, sliding around the ice on their Bauer NEXUS 2Ns while slicing their opponents with their Vapor 2X Pros.
There's an uneasy arms race developing. Finally, like a match that lights a container of fuel, the league explodes into war with the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand Eller.
Sticks are converted en masse to pikes with which to line the perimeter of their trenches. Tanks are fitted with treads made of hockey skates, so as to better traverse slippery terrain. A howitzer is developed that fires gigantic hockey pucks, but quickly hauled out of service when it's discovered that rubber ammunition is wildly impractical.
The war rages on, with no end in sight.
* * * * *
Two years after the war's beginning, a stalemate has been reached. One side wins a battle, captures a trench, and then loses it the next day. This continues for some time until one brave corporal in the Hamilton Steelhawks 33rd division decides he's had enough, climbs above the battlement and calls to the other side for a truce.
![[Image: FPmto3f.jpg]](https://i.imgur.com/FPmto3f.jpg)
Corporal Gabriel Johnson of the Fightin' 33rd
He's immediately hit by a mortar and blown into a thousand pieces, but his act of bravery helps bring in an uneasy peace between the two sides. Former foes meet once again as in the old days of the SHL, and share stories about close calls, existential horrors of war, and the tale of one Chicago soldier who was executed for treason after refusing to fight without being properly compensated. ■
RE: S53 WFT #1 - Bold Predictions - Mika_Kandinsky - 03-29-2020
Aleister Cain will finally take home an award (it's not bold because he's got a ton of TPE but it is bold cuz we all know he stink)
This is a bold claim and definitely not going to happen, but not for why you'd think. The reason this won't happen is because I picked him in fantasy this season which basically guarantees he will have an awful year. I have finished dead last in pretty much every season of fantasy and I've never placed above 5th. So, by this reasoning alone, there is no way Cain had an award winning season simply because he's on my fantasy team.
RE: S53 WFT #1 - Bold Predictions - Tomasnz - 03-29-2020
03-27-2020, 04:21 PMDuff101 Wrote:Code:Puolivalmiste - TEX goalie White Goodman will be Rookie of the Year
Lol goalies winning awards. Also it seems like looking at some FHM sims goalies tend to get scored on at similar numbers to Simon and in order to shine for RoTY you really have to put up numbers that I'm not sure a rookie goalie has the TPE to put up.
I agree with this take. I think the days of 800 tpe goalies really competing with the other top goalies might be a thing of the past.
The one thing that gives me caution on that is I think skater rookie performance is also going to fall considerably. I think the seasons of 5+ rookies being over 25 points might be over.
..in which case maybe a fringe top half rookie goalie could squeek a nomination?