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Dextaria · 10-25-2020, 10:36 PM

Ready for Grading

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This season the SJHN are doing season previews for each round of the SMJHL playoffs. Arkz, Shuff and I have analyzed each matchup and made our predictions while Juke will use the series stats to calculate the percent chance that each team will win the series (read here for more information on how that's done). These graphs will be updated daily so be sure to check back every so often to see what are your team chances!

QUEBEC CITY CITADELLES

Shuff: The Citadels allowed the Timber to pass them during the last sim for the right to play the Scarecrows, and got the much worse matchup in Colorado. Quebec had a middle of the road offense and defense, scoring and allowing a bit under 3 goals a game. They got outshot by an average of two goals a game. Nothing special on either side of the puck of Quebec. They play physically leading the league with a round 1000 hits.

Arkz: Well, while I’m sure Quebec City would rather have clutched out a few more wins down the stretch, I don’t think we should discount the work they’ve put in. Just a few short weeks ago they had a 12-17-4 record and we’re looking in danger of finishing in the basement of the East. Fortunately for the Quebecois, they managed to finish 23-23-4 and even had a chance to pass Maine for third in the East. But, they managed to take a 7 goal deficit in their differential and turn that into a positive 8 differential instead. If you’re looking for teams that got hot down the stretch and might over perform their record, these are the guys.

Dex: In the last couple weeks it seems like the Citadelles began to pick up the pace and win a number of games. This past week alone, the team won 8 games and only lost 4. Their player Ryan Rieley even led the league in points this past week with 16 points in their 12 games played, while their defensemen Jasper Maximov led the league this past week for defensemen with 13 points. However, as Shuff has mentioned, it wasn’t enough to propel them past the Maine Timber and now they’re facing an closely matched Colorado Raptors team. I would give Quebec City the edge defensively in this series but again, the 2 teams are actually really close.

SHUFF’S PLAYER TO WATCH: RYAN RIELEY
The Citadels like playing physical, but Rieley is able to contribute in both ways, 2nd on the team with 116 hits, 3rd on the team in scoring with 33 points, and 1st on the team with 20 goals.

ARKZ’S GOALIE REPORT
This is the first of a few teams we’ll talk about with a veteran and a promising rookie backing them up. Mat Smith started 37 games for the Citadelles, going 14-20-3 and with a GAA of 2.90 and a SV% of .911. That’s to go along with 5 shutouts. For backup, Quebec City featured true rookie Tyler Ward, who went 9-3-1, with a 2.28 GA and .923 SV%. Both are solid options, and look for Quebec to potentially give the young rookie some starts in the playoffs to give Smith a break.

DEX’S SPECIAL TEAMS ANALYSIS
With regards to their special teams, the Citadelles had the worst powerplay in the entire league this season at 11.6%. Their penalty kill on the other hand was 3rd best in the league, just behind the Anchorage Armada and the Vancouver Whalers, at 85.8%. Adding the two numbers together their special teams are below 100 at 97.4. For this series, I think they really need to work on the powerplay to capitalize on those man advantages.

COLORADO RAPTORS Raptors

Shuff: Also right in the mix on the last sim, Colorado ended up in last of the three teams vying for the 7 seed for the chance to play St. Louis. Their powerplay was the story of the season, converting an absurd 24.9% of their chances.

Arkz: Colorado finished in a similar spot to Quebec City, with a perfect .500 record of 24-24-2. However, unlike the Citadelles, who had to dig themselves out of a hole, the Raptors have played at mostly the same pace all season, flirting on either side of .500 constantly. Finishing with a differential of positive two, the Raptors are a solid, if conventional team. However, Colorado cut their teeth in the stacked West conference this season, so it’s possible that they will be one of the more battle-tested teams going into the playoffs. Hopefully their hard-earned scars give them an edge when they travel to Quebec City.

Dex: The Colorado Raptors ended the season pretty similarly as the Citadelles. In their final 11 games, they had 7 wins and 4 losses. However, the Raptors’ corsi and scoring numbers are looking a lot better compared to Quebec City. Plus, while the Citadelles have some skaters that got really hot to enter the playoffs, Colorado also saw their goaltender Yanno Rosejac get hot in these final games as well. This past week, Rosejac was there for all 7 of their wins posting a goals against average below 2 and a save percentage near 0.940. If he can keep this up, this series may be not as close as people think.

SHUFF’S PLAYER TO WATCH: MACK DADDY / LORD RAIDEN / AUMY JR.
The story of this series will be written on special teams. Quebec has a good PK and Colorado has the top PP. These three players are Colorado's top unit. If they have a big series, Colorado is golden.

ARKZ’S GOALIE REPORT
Well, this will be a short section. The only goalie to speak of in detail for the Raptors will be true rookie Yanno Rosejac. Rosejac went 18-17-2 in the regular season, with a GAA of 2.87 and a SV% of .897. Not exactly setting the world on fire with those numbers, however I don’t think you can expect much more of a rookie who got handed the starting job right after draft day. He did have three shutouts, all of which came in the last few weeks of the season so here’s hoping he’s peaking at the right time.

DEX’S SPECIAL TEAMS ANALYSIS
As the Raptors are the better offensive team, it makes sense that their powerplay is clicking really well at 24.8%, best in the league. Quebec City really don’t want to be taking penalties against Colorado even with their penalty kill. As for the Raptors’ penalty kill, it is actually the 3rd worst in the league at 80.7%. However, seeing the Citadelles’ powerplay, I’m not too sure if I’m all too worried for Colorado.

PREDICTIONS

Shuff: This is easily the most interesting series. Like I said above it’s going to come down to Quebec’s PK and Colorado’s PP, a strength on strength matchup. I’m giving the edge to Colorado, I’m worried about Quebec’s high PIM totals (4th in the league at 8.44 PIM/G), so even if Quebec hold’s Colorado’s PP down to a more normal percentage, they may just gift them too many chances. Colorado in 7.

Arkz: This matchup is going to depend on which Quebec City shows up. If it’s the Citadelles from earlier this season, then you can pencil in Colorado to move on without too much of a sweat. However, if Quebec City is able to keep their momentum they may just make a true game of it. Given the closeness of this series, I’m going to go with the team who has the advantage in net. Quebec City in 6.

Dex: Although the Citadelles have Rieley and Maximov playing really well, I think in the end the Raptors’ firepower will be too much to handle for this Citadelles team. This is in addition to Rosejac playing out of his mind entering the playoffs. I think this will be a Colorado win in the end unless their defense and goaltender completely breaks down. Colorado in 6.

PREDICTION WATCH: DAY 1
COL 1 - QCC 1
Shuff: We all expected this series to be tight, and two tight games is a great start.

PREDICTION WATCH: DAY 2
COL 3 - QCC 1
Arkz: Certainly one of the most entertaining series so far in the playoffs, the series score doesn’t tell the whole story. Minus a shutout victory in game three, each game has been decided by a single goal. Quebec City can battle back and make this one interesting if Colorado takes their foot off the gas pedal.

PREDICTION WATCH: DAY 3
COL 4 - QCC 2
Dex: I would just like to say I was spot on with this one. Though my prediction aside, this series was really close and many games were won by just a single goal as Arkz has mentioned previously. With this, the Colorado Raptors go on to the next round where they face the top seed in the East in the Carolina Kraken.

PRESERIES GRAPH

SERIES GRAPHS (UPDATED DAILY)

THE COLORADO RAPTORS WIN THE SERIES

GAME 1

2 - 1

Shuff: Ryan Rieley started the scoring with the Citadelles only goal. But the Raptors came back in the third with two goals, Juni Panda to tie and Lord Raiden on the powerplay (see my player to watch for both teams).

GAME 2

3 - 4

Shuff: Wasn’t I just saying how tight this series would be? Another one goal game. Ryan Rieley again started the scoring. The Citadelles had a 3-1 lead evaporate in the third with 2 goals by Bobby Motz, but Emilia Bergman scored with 7 minutes to go to put the Citadelles up for good.

GAME 3

3 - 0

Arkz: Well I think you can already tell who the star of this game was, but we’ll get to him in a moment. The Raptors saw scoring from Kristjansson, Makinen, and Motz in the first and second period of the game, seizing the momentum. Quebec City goalie Mat Smith faced down 42 shots on the day, as he got absolutely crushed under a barrage of rubber. Raptor rookie goalie Yanno Rosejac blocked all 18 shots he faced for his first career playoff shutout.

GAME 4

3 - 2

Arkz: Quebec City managed to find the net a few more times in game four, but the end result was the same. Colorado’s Mack Daddy opened up the scoring in the first period, and Quebec City’s Emilia Bergman would answer about seven minutes later. Still, goals by Hiroshi Ohira and Ren-Ekelemchi Shimizu-Oko were the difference maker in the game. Mikael Koskinen added a goal for the Citadelles late, but it wasn’t enough as Colorado took a commanding series lead.

GAME 5

2 - 3

Dex: Bring down 1-2 early in the third, the Quebec City Citadelles found a way to tie the series with less than 5 minutes in the period, and have Kevens score the game winning goal with less than 2 minutes to go! As every game was do-or-die for the Citadelles at this point, this win kept their playoff dreams alive for just a bit longer. The Raptors on the other hand shouldn't have been too worried as they looked dominant this game.

GAME 6

6 - 3

Dex: The Quebec City Citadelles were able to tie the game twice before taking the lead for a mere 9 seconds in the third. The Raptors were quick to respond and scored 3 goals in less than 10 minutes with an empty net goal to end the game. It really was a close series between the two teams as this was only the second game that wasn't separated by a single goal. And so, the Colorado Raptors are moving on to the next round to face the Carolina Kraken.

ANAHEIM OUTLAWS Outlaws

Shuff: Losing your best player to injury is more a real life thing, but Anaheim is basically there, as Boxman's retirement unfortunately can be well compared to an injury late in the season. There was no team that wanted to see Anaheim in the playoffs, with the Donair-Boxman line likely to make things difficult. Teams were already figuring out how to shuffle their lines to better match up with that overpowered line, and they will breathe a sigh of relief knowing that isn’t in the cards anymore.

Arkz: I mean, who saw Boxman II’s retirement coming? If you did, you’re probably the one who should be offering the predictions. A couple weeks ago Anaheim was hot as hell, potentially looking to challenge Vancouver for first in the West. Now, at season’s end, they finish at 27-18-5. Their high-powered offense has come back down to earth, but their ability to give up goals hasn’t diminished. This team still has a lot of talent between Donair, Rose, Andrews, and so on to help carry the day, but those folks are going to be asked to dig deep if Anaheim is to make a run.

Dex: I know we’re all talking about Boxman retiring when he was leading the league in points. As both Arkz and Shuff have mentioned, it is a HUGE blow to the Anaheim team. This past week, the Outlaws actually lost 10 of their last 13 games. Over half of their losses have been blowouts and the games they did win were only by a goal or two. To be honest, I’m worried for this team. Their offense has seemed to have disappeared and their goaltending has been below average. Maybe the likes of Thomas Rose, Hubert Andrews, and James LeBlond will be enough to take the win over the Knights, but I’m not sure.

SHUFF’S PLAYER TO WATCH: RYU JONES
With Boxman's late season retirement, Ryu Jones is now the team's top RW scoring wise. He will be playing with John Donair in Boxman's place. If Jones takes a big step up and can replace some of Boxman's production, Anaheim will take this series with ease.

ARKZ’S GOALIE REPORT
Another team that’s handed their starting duties to a true rookie, Vincent Mietitore hasn’t disappointed. Going 19-13-3 in the regular season and a 3.08 GAA and .900 SV%, he’s a solid keeper. The trouble is that Anaheim gives up a ton of shots given their aggressive style of play. Backup Keisuke Suzuki has been about as good as Mietitore in his 15 games, so he may potentially pick up a start in the series as well.

DEX’S SPECIAL TEAMS ANALYSIS
For this offensive squad, the Outlaws’ powerplay is 5th best in the league at 19.4% and their penalty is just above average at 83.4%. Combined the numbers add up to 102.8 which is above 100. This should show that their special teams are doing well; however, again I’m not sure how big of a hit their powerplay takes from Boxman’s retirement.

KELOWNA KNIGHTS Knights

Shuff: Perhaps coming off their peak, having won 30 games in each of the last three seasons, Kelowna won just 17 games this season. Big underdogs in this matchup, Kelowna is hoping to take advantage of an Anaheim team missing Boxman, Kelowna actually scored the least goals in the league, and it wasn’t very close.

Arkz: As the wise Shuff has pointed out, Kelowna are the underdogs here. Still, the question is by how much. Kelowna went 17-29-4 this season, with a rough goal differential of 51. Really, on paper, this Kelowna team is a mirror of St. Louis, though they give up/score fewer goals. Kelowna has some talent on that team, but it’s been a struggle all season. Still, this team has shown some fight down the stretch, including a 3-0 shutout win over the Carolina Kraken.

Dex: What is interesting is that in this last week, the Kelowna Knights’ goals per game has been on par with the Anaheim Outaws 5-on-5. The team even won more games in this final week with 4 wins and 6 losses. However, in spite of their couple of wins and their goaltender Peter Ramsay playing above average, the team still had the worst corsi numbers this past week. With that, I would normally say that it’s an uphill battle for the Kelowna Knights; however, the Outlaws are such a wildcard that I can’t call the Knights underdogs.

SHUFF’S PLAYER TO WATCH: TEDDY PARK
The lone All-Star on the Knights, Park is the PP QB, and if Kelowna is going to pull the upset despite their subpar offense they will have to take advantage of every man-up chance they are given. They were 12.9% on the year. That is simply not going to work in the playoffs. Park is going to be the key to that. Park had 6 assists on the powerplay over the season, 6th among defenders.

ARKZ’S GOALIE REPORT
Starter Peter Ramsey has been solid all season, but has faced a lot of shots. Ramsey went 12-24-1 and had a GAA of 3.15 and a SV% of .909. That tells me that he was putting in the work, but you can only do so much when facing an average of 34 shots a game.

DEX’S SPECIAL TEAMS ANALYSIS
The Kelowna Knights’ special teams are similar to the Quebec City Citadelles and the Nevada Battleborn. Their powerplay has been pretty bad working at only 12.9% which is 3rd worst in the league. However, their penalty kill has been stellar at 85.7% which is 4th best in the league. Combined their special teams add up to 98.6 which is below 100 so their special teams are lacking a little.

PREDICTIONS

Shuff: Anaheim was the far better team over the regular season, scoring 70 more goals than Kelowna. They also won the season series 3-1, outscoring the Knights 11 to 5 in the four games. Even without Boxman I’ll take the Outlaws’ roster over the Knights. Anaheim in 5, I’ll give the Knights a game.

Arkz: Weird series to try and judge, mostly because I’m not sure exactly how to evaluate Anaheim. As Shuff mentioned, the Outlaws won the season series handedly. However, in their last matchup, Kelowna managed to shut out the Outlaws to the tune of 3-0. I’m not sure if there’s a team going into these playoffs colder than Anaheim, and so: Kelowna in 7.

Dex: Although Shuff thinks that this is going to be a bit of a cake walk for the Outlaws, I think I side with Arkz on this one. It’s a weird series where both teams are coming in cold (albeit the Knights have been cold for most of the season). I think this is going to go to a game 7 and whoever wins is a coin toss. I’ll just go with Anaheim for now but I wouldn’t bet anything on this prediction. Anaheim in 7.

PREDICTION WATCH: DAY 1
KEL 1 - ANA 1
Shuff: Ok so the Knights took game one. I only gave them one win so we will see if they get another to kill me there, but dex and arkz both had this series going seven so plenty to be seen there.

PREDICTION WATCH: DAY 2
KEL 2 - ANA 2
Arkz: So far this has been probably the most back and forth series so far in the playoffs. I won’t say it's the most competitive, as I want to reserve that qualification for the Detroit/Anchorage series, but with Kelowna and Anaheim, you’re not quite sure who is going to win each game.

PREDICTION WATCH: DAY 3
KEL 4 - ANA 3
Dex: After the Anaheim Outlaws took the lead in game 5, the Kelowna Knights stormed back to win 2 straight. The team even mounted a comeback in game 7 where they were down early in the game. With this, it is a major upset for the Outlaws are they traded away picks to bolster this roster for the playoff round. Prediction-wise, Arkz was spot on and I'd like to say I wasn't too far off as well.

PRESERIES GRAPH

SERIES GRAPHS (UPDATED DAILY)

THE KELOWNA KNIGHTS WIN THE SERIES

GAME 1

4 - 3 (OT) Outlaws

Shuff: Don’t we all love overtime playoff hockey? All except the teams playing in it. Add into Anaheim forcing OT with under two minutes to play, and we have an instant classic. That goal was scored by Ryu Jones, none other than my player to watch I may add. Teddy Park also had a PP goal, as I outlined above. Some good calls there I must say. The winner was scored by Braden Lowrie.

GAME 2

1 - 5

Shuff: More like the way I had it. Ryu Jones with another goal. Thomas Rose a 3 point night. Brendon Huff had the meaningless goal for the Knights with 3 minutes to go down 5-0.

GAME 3

3 - 4

Arkz: This game wasn’t as tight as the score would indicate. Both teams were tied at two goals apiece before Ziggy Tambo scored to make it 3-2 for Anaheim. Anaheim would add another and Kelowna’s James Hagan would score with less than a minute to go. Anaheim shelled Kelowna goalie Peter Ramsey to the tune of roughly 36 shots on the day compared to the Knights’ 21 and that was really the difference.

GAME 4

5 - 4 (OT) Outlaws

Arkz: This was the second game of the series to go to overtime, and it didn’t disappoint. It was a back and forth affair, with “Long” John Donair scoring to tie the game in the third period. However, about 5:45 minutes into Overtime, Knights’ Juan Hunna-Pussent scored off a feed from Naofumi Iwatani to tie up the series and give Kelowna a chance to upset the Outlaws.

GAME 5

1 - 5

Dex: Another 5-1 win for the Anaheim Outlaws who took the lead in the series with this one. The Outlaws took the lead in this game early and never took their foot off the gas pedal with 2 goals in the first, 2 goals in the second, and a goal in the third. Things weren't looking too good for the Knights who had to win 2 games straight to advance to the next round.

GAME 6

2 - 1

Dex: The Knights goaltender Peter Ramsey absolutely STOLE this game in my opinion. The Kelowna Knights were outshot 40-32 and for most of the game the team was relying on their single goal in the first. Thankfully, Hagan scored the second goal for the Knights to give them the 2 goal lead. The Outlaws only managed to get a goal by Ramsey, pushing this series to a game 7.

GAME 7

4 - 2

Dex: It came down to this. A big game 7 matchup for the two teams which saw them going back and forth with the goalscoring until the Kelowna Knight player Patrik Money scored the eventual game winning goal with less than 5 minutes left in the second period. Hamilton Jr. got the insurance marker with less than a minute to go in that period before the Knights shut it down to win the game and move on to the next round. An absolutely heartbreaking loss for this Anaheim squad.

MAINE TIMBER Timber

Shuff: They managed to sneak out with the 7 seed and play St. Louis over Colorado and Quebec and they get St. Louis in the first round. Unlike Quebec and Colorado, Maine actually scored less goals than they allowed, showing that they were perhaps a little lucky to finish over .500.

Arkz: Maine managed to hold on just long enough to keep ahead of Quebec City and earned an opening series against the St. Louis Scarecrows. While I’m sure Maine would have liked to finish ahead of Newfoundland, I think a series against the struggling Scarecrows is a nice consolation prize. Now it's up to the 23-21-6 team to not screw it up. Maine played 14 games that went to overtime and beyond this season, so we’ll either see a battle tested team or an exhausted one when this series opens up.

Dex: Similar to the teams in the Kelowna-Anaheim series, it seems like these two teams are coming into the playoffs cold as well. The Maine Timber barely got 3rd place in the East as Shuff, winning only 4 of their games this past week. Their goaltender Leo Bloomfield has been underwhelming and their offense is in the lower half of the league. They should be glad as they could’ve been facing a hotter Colorado team. Now Maine has to face the St. Louis Scarecrows which is not too easy either, but Maine should have a better chance against them as they try to regroup.

SHUFF’S PLAYER TO WATCH: WALTON STROMBERG
Stromberg is Maine’s best scorer, but he also leads the team in PIM. Maine will need Stromberg to stay out of the box and in the scoresheet this postseason.

ARKZ’S GOALIE REPORT
The Timber will put their trust into their stalwart veteran Leo Bloomfield, who had a decent year for himself though potentially below his lofty standards. Going 17-16-6 in the regular season with a 2.90 GAA and a .904 SV%, Bloomfield will be solid. However, he may not be able to steal a victory for the Timber of his skaters are struggling in front of him.

DEX’S SPECIAL TEAMS ANALYSIS
Special teams are not Maine’s strong point as both their powerplay and penalty kill this season has been below league average at 16.4% and 81.5%. Nothing too spectacular for their special teams but at least they aren’t looking too disadvantaged against the Scarecrows in this part of their game.

ST. LOUIS SCARECROWS

Shuff: The Scarecrows got outshot by over 10 shots per game (25.06 to 36.14). That was a large part of their struggles this season. Nicolae Antonescu faced the second most shots of all goalies. They should attempt to shore that up.

Arkz: The good news about the playoffs is that it washes away stains of the regular season. The bad news is that underneath that, this team is still the St. Louis Scarecrows. Putting together an 18-29-3 record and a troubling 54 goal deficit, St. Louis is probably happy that they are in the same division as Detroit and so get a bit of a cushion. Still, they only won five fewer games than Maine. In fact, St. Louis was undefeated against Maine this season. Granted most of them were single goal affairs, but if St. Louis got their pick in the opening round, they may have chosen Maine.

Dex: Although St. Louis is lower in the standings, I wouldn’t count them out as in this last week they actually had a slightly higher goals for per game! This was led by Pavel Kharlamov and Colin Lambert who both had 12 points this past week. Their goaltending has come back down to earth a little after a great showing by Antonescu throughout the season, but at least they are facing a cold Maine team.

SHUFF’S PLAYER TO WATCH: COLIN LAMBERT
Clearly one of the best players for St. Louis, his CF% rel is 7.7. Lampert is a big part of the team’s scoring with 27 points and his play driving keeps the opponent hemmed in its own zone.

ARKZ’S GOALIE REPORT
Now this is a tale of two goalies. Look for St. Louis to ride veteran Nicolae Antonescu in this series. He went 16-25-3 in the regular season, with a 3.36 GAA but with a .910 SV%. If St. Louis can keep the opposing shots to a manageable level, Antonescu will keep them in the game.

DEX’S SPECIAL TEAMS ANALYSIS
The Scarecrows special teams are on par with the Timber’s special teams. They have slightly worse powerplay at 15.2% and a slightly better penalty kill at 82.1%. As I said with the Timber, neither team has a huge advantage on the powerplay or penalty kill so maybe the teams will be less afraid of taking penalties.

PREDICTIONS

Shuff: St. Louis actually took the season series 4-0, outscoring Maine 16-10. Maine picked up just one point. St. Louis has Maine’s number, and I have to pick at least one upset. St. Louis in 7.

Arkz: This is tough. As my esteemed colleague Shuff pointed out, St. Louis is undefeated against Maine so far this season. On the other hand, the Scarecrows let in the second-most goals this season. However, given Maine’s slump in the last few weeks, I’m not exactly filled with confidence in the Timber either. Still, I think Maine can pull it together in this series. Maine in 6.

Dex: I think this series is a close one as well. Both teams are coming in cold and no team appears to have a clear advantage over the other. However, if I had to predict how the series will go, I think that the Maine Timber will be able to edge out the Scarecrows in a close game 7. Maine in 7.

PREDICTION WATCH: DAY 1
STL 1 - MET 1
Shuff: We all had this matchup going 6, I had it going 7, and to start out 1-1 is probably what we all wanted to see.

PREDICTION WATCH: DAY 2
STL 3 - MET 1
Arkz: Well, looks like our prognosticators got this one a little wrong. St. Louis contains to vex the Timber, and has taken a commanding lead in the overall series. Crazy thing is, there isn’t one thing you can point to in order to explain this lead. The Scarecrows have just been outplaying their competition.

PREDICTION WATCH: DAY 3
STL 3 - MET 4
Dex: What a comeback for the Maine Timber who fell 1-3 in the series to storm back to take it and advance to the next round. This isn't the first time in the playoffs that the Timber have made a comeback from 1-3 deficit. With that, it appears that my prediction was spot-on with Shuff also predicting a game 7.

PRESERIES GRAPH

SERIES GRAPHS (UPDATED DAILY)

THE MAINE TIMBER WIN THE SERIES

GAME 1

2 - 1

Shuff: All the scoring happens early in this one. A scoreless final two periods of play, great job by the goalies with 31 saves by Leo Bloomfield and 33 saves by Nicolae Antonescu. Two point night for Pavel Kharlomov and a two goal game for Young Logo.

GAME 2

2 - 6

Shuff: This game was over early, three goals by Maine in the first period. Kyle Sutton a four point night. Young Logo his third goal of the series, maybe we should be watching him and not Colin Lampert, who was a minus 2 and took a tripping call in the first.

GAME 3

4 - 3 (OT) Timber

Arkz: With the “you’ve never beaten them” monkey off their back, hopes were high for Maine in game three. Unfortunately for the Timber, St. Louis continues to hold some sort of voodoo over them. Colin Lambert won it for the Scarecrows off of assists from Bud Weiser and Grapefruit Lizard, and St. Louis continues their domination of Maine in S56.

GAME 4

5 - 1

Arkz: This was just a good old-fashioned spanking by the Scarecrows. The first period ended in a 1-1 tie off of goals by St. Louis’ Victor Fedorov and Maine’s Alex Marshall, but after that it was all St. Louis. Young Logo would score two goals and Federov would add another to blow out the Timber and give the Scarecrows the commanding lead in the series.

GAME 5

1 - 2

Dex: A HUGE 1 goal win by the Maine Timber who are facing elimination. The team kept the Scarecrows to only 17 shots and 1 goal on the night. The clutch game winner was scored by Seppanen late in the third with less than 5 minutes left to give Maine the win.

GAME 6

1 - 4

Dex: Yet another lackluster game for the Scarecrows offense as they only mustered 20 shots compared to the 36 taken by the Timber. Though the score was close, tied 1-1 heading into the third period. However, this is where Maine scored 3 goals with the fourth goal being from former Scarecrow Elwulf Jericson. This forced a game 7, the second one this round.

GAME 7

2 - 4

Dex: The St. Louis Scarecrows were finally able to get more than a goal on this Timber team since game 4. However, Maine were able to score 4. After letting in an early goal, the Timber stormed back with 3 goals and kept the lead for the rest of the game to take the win. Coming back from being down 1-3 in the series, the Maine Timber are off the the next round.

ANCHORAGE ARMADA Armada

Shuff: While they were the 4th 3rd best team in the league, thanks to being in Vancouver’s division they have to play in the first round. Perhaps the most interesting stat about the Armada is how they don’t take penalties, only being shorthanded 74 times the whole season, tops in the league.

Arkz: Anchorage is a great team. They probably shouldn’t be playing in the opening round, but unfortunately it's crowded at the top in the West. Going 29-17-4 in the regular season and putting together an impressive differential of positive 34, the Armada are a talented team looking to make a run at the cup. They have a lot of talent on that team, like Santtu Rasanen, Theo Kondos, and Pojo Biscuit. But I also need to remind people that TURG TURG is on this team, and he scored 15 goals this year.

Dex: The Anchorage Armada are one of the hottest teams entering the playoffs. They won 7 of their last 10 games, having the highest goals for per game in the league this past week. Then there is their goaltender Scoochie Stratton who appears to have returned to his MVP form posting a goals against average below 2 and a save percentage near 0.930, right in time for the playoffs. WIth their offense, defense and goaltending, I wouldn’t be too worried if I was them.

SHUFF’S PLAYER TO WATCH: SCOOCHIE STRATTON
Stratton did not have a very good season, with a SV% under .900 and a GAA of 2.73. If Stratton doesn’t improve against Detroit, does Anchorage have any shot to advance in the second round?

ARKZ’S GOALIE REPORT
The only team in this first round that has a true platoon for goaltenders. Scoochie Stratton put together a 17-9-1 record with a 2.73 GAA and a .893 SV%. Chimkin Tendy, for their part, went 12-8-3 with a 2.59 GAA and a .893 SV%. Scoochie is probably the Game 1 starter for Armada, but look for Chimkin to potentially get some starts this series.

DEX’S SPECIAL TEAMS ANALYSIS
This Armada team is firing on all cylinders when it comes to special teams. Both their powerplay and penalty kill is 2nd best in the entire league at 21.9% and 86.5%. I can see Anchorage capitalizing on their special teams against the Detroit Falcons which could lead to a quicker series.

DETROIT FALCONS Falcons

Shuff: Oh, how the mighty have fallen. The Falcons are just a terrible team right now, with just a few bright spots. As my mother taught me, if you have nothing nice to say don’t say anything. Maybe we can be nicer next season. They actually beat Newfoundland handley twice. Don’t think that’s going to help against Anchorage though.

Arkz: You know, it could have been worse. Detroit more than doubled their win total in the last few weeks, though it remains an ugly 13-34-3. They had an even uglier negative 74 differential for their goals as well. Look, let's not mince words: the Falcons have been the worst team all year. But that doesn’t mean this team can’t offer a surprise or two. Center Sammy Blaze basically does it all for Detroit, and he’s going to have to put the team on his back if they are going to make any noise in this series.

Dex: The Falcons are at the bottom of the league. Their offense has been missing with the exception of Sammy Blaze and Wen Baters who scored 11 and 8 points respectively. Then there is their goaltending that has literally been the worst in the league. Coming into the playoffs, Odinson put up a below 0.880 save percentage with a goals against average near 4.5. These numbers don’t look too good and it seems like it will take a miracle for the Falcons to win.

SHUFF’S PLAYER TO WATCH: THOR ODINSON
Not because the goalie really has a chance to steal this series, but it could be the last few games for Odinson in Detroit.

ARKZ’S GOALIE REPORT
Justice for the son of Odin! Thor went 10-31-3 this season, with a 3.90 GAA and a SV% of .902. This poor guy suffered through almost 40 shots a game all season. The fact that his SV% is above .900 is a testament to the God of Thunder’s abilities. Unfortunately, he has the same team in front of him for the playoffs.

DEX’S SPECIAL TEAMS ANALYSIS
Detroit’s powerplay has been surprisingly good! Their powerplay is above average making them 4th best in the league. However, they are facing the 2nd best penalty kill in the league. As for Detroit’s penalty kill, they are the 2nd worst at 76.5%. That could be their greatest weakness as the Armada know how to capitalize on their opportunities.

PREDICTIONS

Shuff: Armada sweep. Next please. Ok, to be fair, Detroit did win one of 4 games they played in the regular season, but I’ll give Anchorage a solid edge here.

Arkz: A sweep? I’m not going to call for the brooms for the Falcons at this point. Here is to hoping that they can harness some of that chaotic energy they had near the All-Star break to steal one from the Armada. Armada in 5.

Dex: I don’t want to be calling a sweep but this is looking like a sweep unless all the puck bounces go the Falcons’ way. Even with that, I don’t think this Detroit team can win any more than 2 games from lucky puck bounces. Armada in 4.

PREDICTION WATCH: DAY 1
DET 0 - ANC 2
Shuff: With all of us keeping this matchup short, 2-0 Armada sounds good. Arkz will be happy to see the games were close.

PREDICTION WATCH: DAY 2
DET 1 - ANC 3
Arkz: Gotta feel for Detroit on this one. On paper, Anchorage is the better team and so while this series score probably doesn’t surprise anyone (minus my fellow predictors who guessed a sweep), these games have been incredibly tight. Each game has been decided by a single goal, and there’s probably some parallel universe where Detroit just completed their sweep of the Armada.

PREDICTION WATCH: DAY 3
DET 1 - ANC 4
Dex: I'd admit, the Detroit Falcons played extremely well in this series keeping most games close (probably a big thanks to Thor Odinson's amazing play). The team even had a 3-1 lead in their first elimination game. However, the Armada offense was too much as they scored 4 unanswered to take the series. Looks like Arkz was spot-on with his prediction.

PRESERIES GRAPH

SERIES GRAPHS (UPDATED DAILY)

THE ANCHORAGE ARMADA WIN THE SERIES

GAME 1

3 - 4

Shuff: How about Thor Odinson facing 42 shots in this game? A huge game for him in the losing effort. Turg Turg nets the game winner with one second on the clock. Another fantastic game to watch here in the SMJHL round one. Armada fans probably aren’t too happy to see their team need the final seconds against the lowy Falcons, nor did they want to see Scoochie Stratton continue to struggle, giving up 3 goals on 16 shots.

GAME 2

1 - 2

Shuff: Another huge game for Thor Odinson with 44 saves, but still a losing effort. I know I said to watch him because it’s his last few games in Detroit, but he is sure trying to steal a game. Stratton with just 18 saves, but he only saw 19 shots in the win. TURG TURG another game winner, this one in the second period.

GAME 3

1 - 0

Arkz: The story of this game can be told by highlighting three players. The first is Daedalus James on the Falcons, who scored with about three minutes left in the second period to take the 1-0 lead (assisted by Tyler Burnett and Anton Mihailov). The second players are the goalies. Anchorage’s Scoochie Stratton stopped 18 of the 19 shots he faced on the day, putting in a great performance. However, the star was Detroit’s Thor Odinson, who blocked all 36 shots he faced.

GAME 4

0 - 1 (OT) Armada

Arkz: Justice for Thor Odinson! The lone goal for this one came just two and a half minutes into overtime, with Anchorage’s Pojo Biscuit scoring off an assist from Lemo Pihl. This time it was Scoochie Stratton’s chance with the shutout, blocking 15 shots. However, Thor Odinson continued to be pelted, and stopped 31 out of the 32 shots he faced. With Thor likely being called up at the end of this season, he’s making sure he leaves a statement before he goes.

GAME 5

3 - 5

Dex: The Falcons put up a real good fight. The team managed to take a 3-1 lead early, but by the end of the game the Armada was able to storm back with 4 unanswered. It probably didn't help that they were getting outshot 55-18. With this, the Detroit Falcons have been eliminated after putting up a good fight sending the Anchorage Armada to the next round of the playoffs.