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juke · 09-01-2020, 12:45 PM

Ready for grading

(As a note, I copied this intro from round 1)

SHL playoffs are here, which means it’s once again time to run the numbers and report the percent chance that each team has of winning any given game, and subsequently their series. Just like my media series about this every playoffs, the graphs and series chance for each matchup will be updated after every sim or two, and some context and stats will be added for individual games, as well as the series as a whole. This year, @Nhamlet and @”reid” will be joining me in covering the games in this championship, which sees regular season points leader BUF squaring off against NOL who’s making a Cup defense. As always, before just going straight into the numbers, I’d like to clarify some of the background and theory behind how this breakdown works. None of the methodology changed from last season, so feel free to skip it if you’re familiar with where these numbers come from, or if you just don’t care.

Numbers only: The most important thing for me to clarify, is that these aren’t my ‘predictions’ of who’s going to win each series. It’s just reporting the probabilities of team wins, based on that team’s scoring trends. There’s no context behind the probabilities, it’s literally just statistics. Other members of the SHN have/will put out their own spins of the specific breakdown of each matchup, and those pieces are where you’ll find more context and predictions about each series.

Tactics: This is the biggest flaw in all these numbers. They’re just using season averages, where a lot of teams likely found the best tactics for their team in a broad, general sense, and went with them to try and win as many games as possible. However, come playoffs with 4-7 games against the same opponent, teams will be trying to counter the other, or maybe have new line combinations or tactic settings to give them an advantage. This can’t really be reported in my numbers (other than head to head factor which I talk about in a second), so certain teams are going to match up better or worse then the numbers suggest, based on how well they can adjust their strategies.

Estimated score: This is the entire foundation of all the probabilities in this series. For each matchup, each team is given an estimated number of goals they’ll score in any given game, which is then used for all the rest of the math in these posts. This number is a function of each team’s scoring trends, both goals for and against, during the 50 game season, relative to league average. The number generated won’t be a real score, it’ll be something impossible to actually score, like 3.41 as a random example. But we use that value to calculate the probability of each team scoring a real number of goals, ranging from 0 to 8 in a single game.

Game chances: Using this estimated score and the probabilities that each team scores a certain amount of goals, we can estimate the percent chance that each team will win any given game.

Series chances: Once we have the percent chance that each team will win in either location, we can extrapolate to calculate the probability of each team winning at least 4 out of the 7 games for the series win.

No momentum: I know that momentum is a thing in FHM, but these numbers won't take that into account directly. However, I’ve changed how the expected goals are calculated this season, and the matchup values will be weighted more heavily towards the team’s head-to-head record on the season then I weighted them last playoffs. This means that if a team wins 2 games in a row in the series, although the actual momentum modifier from FHM won’t be considered, that team’s odds will still increase more significantly, because they’ll also have performed better in the head-to-head modifier on my end.

Home vs. Away: Also a new change from last playoffs, I decided to scrap the home vs. away distinction in the code. Although some teams really did perform much differently based on location, I decided 25 games for each was too small of a sample size, and things like a few bad games, or playing backup goalies more in one location could really skew the numbers, and as a result, the entire probabilities. Team scoring stats are based on their 50 game season stats, as well as updated for playoff stats as each game is played.

Scoring graphs: I also decided to not make the individual scoring probability graphs, which show the chances of all possible score outcomes for games. I figured no one really looked at them or cared too much. They’re automatically generated when I make the rest of the figures, so I have them if anyone wants them, but I really doubt anyone does.

Matchup breakdown: This is the first of the graphs that will be updated after each game. It compares the two teams in each matchup, and how well each of them are performing relative to each other in a few key stats. Before game 1, the matchup breakdown graphs will just be using season stats, but after game 1, it will be representative of the current playoff matchup. The numbers plotted are per game, and the exact value for each team is also on the graph.

Series tracker: This final graph represents each team’s series chances after each game. Before game 1, it will be a very boring graph with just two points, but after each game it will track how the series chances change with each team’s win or loss.

Ok lets get on to the probabilities.

NOL vs. BUF Stampede

Pre series

A matchup of titans for the S55 Challenge Cup between Buffalo and New Orleans. The teams were fairly evenly matched, with Buffalo scoring slightly more and also allowing slightly less goals. New Orleans has been slightly more physical this postseason, recording more hits per game and more shot blocks per game. Buffalo is led by Hippo Passamus and Monkey D Luffy in postseason points and has gotten excellent goaltending from sophomore Elizabeth Doyle. New Orleans goaltending has not been as solid so far, but starter Aleister Cain has the postseason pedigree to turn it on in the finals. NOLA has been led by Boris Poroshenko, Rex Kirkby and Mika Mayfield in points, and will lean on that trio to put up points against Buffalo’s strong defense. To get to this point, Buffalo had a tough road, defeating the Chicago Syndicate 4-1 and then shedding their FHM demons and beating Hamilton in 6 games. New Orleans had two drawn out series, fighting tooth and nail with Calgary to win in 6 games, and then winning in a dramatic game 7 with a breakaway goal with less than 5 mins left in the game. The season series was 1-1 in the regular season, so it is really anyone’s guess how the series will go. Buffalo comes into it with a 54.8% chance to win game 1, and a 60.4% chance to win the series overall. That number won’t scare NOL, as they had similar odds in last round’s victory over EDM, as well as most of last post-season in their cup run. They seem to have an FHM playoff ‘it’ factor compared to their regular season numbers, while BUF has the early probability advantage based on team scoring, so this series will be a nail biter to watch.

General series stats

Game 1

2 - 3

NOLA got out to an early lead, scoring seconds into the game. Buffalo Came back, outshooting New Orleans 37-26 and scoring 3 goals in the winning effort. NOLA also had to block 21 shots, compared to Buffalo’s 15. The Stampede dominated the Corsi battle, controlling play to the tune of an 82 CF. New Orleans by comparison only had a 53. Despite the Specters best attempts to be physical and hit lots (21-14 advantage over the Stampede), it was not enough to win the first game. This increased Buffalo’s chances of winning the series to 74.1%, a pretty solid advantage.

Game 2

2 - 3

So far what we’re seeing is that Buffalo is very clearly on a different level than any of the other teams in the SHL right now. That’s not to say that simply outshooting the Specters is simply going to be a guarantee for a win, as Edmonton had shown they were capable of doing that at times, but New Orleans still came out in a coin flip series. For what its worth the score indicates that the game was a lot closer than the game was, with the 103.62 PDO vs 96.38 PDO resting squarely on the goaltending differences. Cain has needed to be almost amazing whereas Doyle could very well be the pivoting factor of this entire series. While not quite as the TPE deficit as a young goalie like Jobin is for Hamilton, the difference is there and might be enough for the Specters to take advantage of as Buffalo has a 0.91 SV%. This one ultimately came down to Eko van Otter being a game breaker in both scoring the first goal, and the last goal in overtime. Buffalo does hold a commanding 86.6% chance at winning right now though.

Game 3

3 - 2

In the series of 3-2 wins, New Orleans finally got their first victory to start closing the gap and make the series 2-1 in favour of Buffalo. The victory wasn’t super convincing however, as Buffalo outshot the Specters 52 – 24, on top of 28 shot blocks for the Specters. Aleister Cain stood on his head to get NOLA the victory, but it feels unsustainable if New Orleans can’t take care of the puck and even out the shot opportunities. Cain’s heroics reduced Buffalo’s chances of winning the series back down to 75%.

Game 4

3 - 1

In what looks like a terrible nightmare for Buffalo, their series lead has evaporated much like their scoring and goaltending has. They continued to dominate heavily in the possession department with New Orleans still mustering a respectable 30 shots on goal out of their 60 attempts but also surrendering 40 shots themselves. Yet the number advantage that matters in the end is the scoreboard and New Orleans found the slight cracks to turn this series back into an even fight. Two individuals who stood out in particular for this game was Lil’ Manius who had 3 secondary assists for the 1st Star of the Game, though Aleister Cain could have also been as deserved of that with a 0.975SV%, only allowing a single goal. As of this game, Slothface leads the Specters in scoring with 6 points and van Otter for Buffalo with 4.

Game 5

4 - 3

The same trends from the first 4 games continued on once again. BUF did everything according to their game plan in this one, having over 50% more corsi for and shots in game 5, but the 10 point deficit in PDO for the series is incredibly disgruntling for them, and if it continues it will make it very difficult to pull off 2 straight wins. Cain has stepped up in this series for NOL, posting a 0.94 save percentage, and allowing NOL to have a 3-2 series lead on just 2.8 goals a game. Despite being outshot by almost double the amount for the series, NOL shooters have found the back of the net on 12% of their shots, which now has them sitting with a 3-2 series lead, as they attempt to finish their Cup defense at home in game 6. They have a 70% chance of closing out the series within the next 2 games, while BUF will be hoping the series luck reverts back to games 1 and 2, where their series-wide 60 CF% was able to be converted into wins.

Game 6

1 - 6

Welp, if there’s anything that’s a positive with this, it’s that neutral fans will be getting their share and more of an exciting playoffs that continues to twist and turn. New Orleans had the opportunity to win the Cup early but will now need one last do or die game as Buffalo roars back, preventing the reverse sweep. Their dominance stood out in this game, mostly thanks to a solid performance by Doyle and the clinical hailstorm of goals by their best players in the 3rd. That includes some players such as Darrow with 2 goals, Luffy with 2 points and van Otter adding another. The series has leaned towards the Specters for goaltending and Buffalo for shots and scoring including in man advantage situations. While Buffalo hasn’t given many opportunities at all, averaging 1 PIM a game, New Orleans will have to either take advantage of their rare situations or somehow stonewall the Stampede offense next game. It’s truly a coinflip with Buffalo sitting at 55% to win it all.

Game 7

2 - 3

No graph for G7, sorry
And just like that, in one of the most electric games of the entire season that basically included it all, Buffalo Stampede are your new Challenge Cup winners. Both teams held leads at one point, including a surprise goal from Nicholas Owens as the 3rd period game tying goal, which was his first of the playoffs. Stampede even gave a couple opportunities to the Specters to climb back out ahead with a couple of uncharacteristic penalties but Doyle had a fantastic performance including a breakaway save could have easily been the cup winning goal. Instead that honor goes to Monkey D Luffy, having received a cross ice pass from Matt Kholin and snapping it past Cain. The leading point getters for New Orleans was Slothface and Manius tied at 7 points each, and Luffy who broke the point per game mark with 8 points leading the Stampede.

[quote]Split between @reid @juke @Nhamlet

***hotdog*** · 09-01-2020, 12:48 PM

:(

SlashACM · 09-01-2020, 12:50 PM

09-01-2020, 12:48 PMhotdog Wrote: :(

*slothfacekilla* · 09-01-2020, 01:01 PM

09-01-2020, 12:48 PMhotdog Wrote: :(

majesiu · 09-01-2020, 01:05 PM

09-01-2020, 12:48 PMhotdog Wrote: :(

***golden_apricot*** · 09-01-2020, 01:09 PM

**Lime** · 09-01-2020, 01:16 PM

:)

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