I wanted some sort of more definite way to see whether there was a pattern to semi predict the slight chaos that is FHM. In general there’s enough predictability that you could say that the top 4-5 teams are all but a guarantee to meet in the Conference Finals. In seasons’ past this might have been 3 teams at most so increasingly the parity of the team continues to level out. I would imagine this number only increases when the divisional changes are made and fewer teams suffer from a Great Lakes scenario of being better than almost everybody but still not making the playoffs.

Credits as always to @juke for the data collected

What’s clear about cup winners compared to the rest of the rabble is the degree to which they dominate teams. That means possession and overwhelming with shots for while minimizing against. That isn’t enough to simply predict a singular winner, so what about ‘luck’ as well? You have to be good to be lucky and vice versa. So with the following 3 sets of graphs from S55/S57/S59, we’ll see if there are any standouts

S55 Cup Winner: Buffalo


In S55, we saw quite a few teams all tightly grouped, making it for a tough batch to get of, but a clear #1 in terms of possession and PDO combination in Buffalo, who ended up winning in 7 over New Orleans.


S57 Cup Winner: Chicago


S57, it ends up being a clear 1 and 2 with Chicago and Hamilton, with Hamilton having the slight edge in possession but Chicago having a higher PDO. In the end, Chicago beats Hamilton in 5, despite barely making it out against Manhattan and Buffalo just prior.


S59 Cup Winner:???



S59, it’s a bit tougher to say. Chicago has shown to be the best defensively in suppression shots, whereas Hamilton and Buffalo are slightly better in generating shots. The clear ones standing out are Hamilton and Texas in terms of PDO, Texas especially so. If the theory of strong corsi and PDO are consistent enough as they’ve shown so far with the ‘hotter’ team going into the playoffs of Buffalo and Chicago having won in the past, that means this is most likely Hamilton or Texas’ season to win.

Going to have to go with Hamilton given their very recent history of winning in S53, S56, S58 and having won the regular season series 2-0 with a combined score of 8-3.

Ew.