10-27-2020, 03:39 PMkarlssens Wrote:

10-27-2020, 12:41 PMDuff101 Wrote: Firstly, as I mentioned earlier shutouts are effectively equivalent to GAA. Goalies that get shot on less have less shutouts. Secondly, my rationale behind it was focusing mainly on shots stopped, and Knox Booth stopped nearly 13 more shots per game compared to Vilde. The point isn't necessarily to punish goalies on good teams but to reward ones who put the team on their back. The fact is Knox Booth had way more of an impact on the team than Kata Vilde did. If we take the average save percentage from all goalies this year (~.916) and apply it to Booth's SHA the team lets in 31 more goals and he now has the third worst GA out of any goalie (right now Knox is 10th). By that same methodology, Kata Vilde lets in 23 and moves from 19th GA to 17th. So what does this mean? First off those ten more goals that Knox would have let in are HUGE, and probably represents anywhere from 3-6 games lost as a result. Second, it means that Knox Booth had way more of an impact on team success than Vilde did, while having a harder road to doing it. That's really the core of this article. Knox Booth was way more valuable to his team than Kata was.

I also have been keeping track of a graph of sv% compared with SHAA for every goalie performance over the year, which I'll put below. Take with the data what you will.

I get where you're coming from and I don't deny Knox was more valuable to his team, but I've always seen the mcbride award as best goalie, not most valuable. It's the same argument that comes up when we discuss the Mexico each season. The two aren't mutually exclusive, and most of the time it's pretty cut and dry, but Vilde has so few shots against him (or at least compared to Knox) it really opens up the door for a potential award win by Knox. Curious to see where the committee goes.

My biggest concern is that you're leaning very heavily on shots against. Much like how every year people sort by blocks and say the best defender is the one with the most blocks are hits. It helps when your team doesn't have the puck.

For goalies, aren't most valuable and best kind of one and the same? If a goalie puts the team on his back and stands on his head shouldn't that goalie be seen as higher quality, even with slightly lesser stats?

To the second point I actually sort of agree. I feel like this metric is incomplete without a metric for shot quality and I'd love to reanalyze this with a new equation that factors in quality or real scoring chances but I don't think FHM provides those and if it does it's not in the index. I'm by no means a statistical expert and I'm sure this metric is flawed but at the end of the day I'm using it moreso as a voter guide than as a definitive measure of quality. I do think Knox Booth should win the McBride this year but I'm not naive enough to think my stat is the only way of measuring goalies or even that it's perfect. Also I'm not really using pure numbers as I'm focusing more on a per-game basis.