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*fishy* · 01-06-2020, 05:22 PM

01-06-2020, 04:54 PMJKortesi81 Wrote:
01-06-2020, 03:18 PMKeygan Wrote: Credit to Keygan for the great idea.

Can confirm Keygan solely came up with this. Thank you Sir.

Classic WBF trying to steal other people's brilliant ideas

**RomanesEuntDomus** · 01-06-2020, 05:40 PM

01-06-2020, 02:14 PMgolden_apricot Wrote:
Quote:Still not quite sure what you mean by all Snipers, PA 40 or PA 90, or something in between? But assuming you kept the rest of the league as it was, a 55% win rate is hardly game breaking and, depending on how big the sample was, could well be within the realm of statistical randomness. Hell, it's worse than a lot of teams have been doing this season even without the exploit. But then again SMJHL is probably is probably quite different than SHL when it comes to this as the TPE-differences both between individual players and between teams are less pronounced.

So I just simply swapped passing and scoring if the players passing was higher than their scoring. Tomen and JY and others just did 40 passing 99 scoring or 70 passing 99 scoring for different teams and saw the outcome. Now I had issues with this in general because it had an inherent assumption that x team should be bad so if this makes them good its broken to some extent like I mentioned with Chicago. 55% over multiple tests relatively consistently (5x500 game seasons) is outside of statistical randomness but not outside of what you might expect in a season. I think in the SHL it might have been higher not positive.

Quote:Yeah that's my main issue, all this panic seems to be based on a select few tests with a limited scope or highly experimental setups whereas the more moderating ones are largely ignored. Hell we had three teams with a win rate above 65% this season and one did much better than the team which is using the exploit, with others on equal footing or not far behind. Hamilton didn't break the league this season, exploit or not. I know it's not particularly attractive to give them the benefit of the doubt at the moment and I sure hope they don't end up winning the cup, but the playoff sample size is way too small to draw any conclusions. Sweeping a Wildcard team with a low TPE goalie and now leading 3-1 in a close series against a team you finished ahead of in the regular season? That's also not gamebreaking, no matter how much we might dislike them at the moment.

Im not touching this one anymore or else Ill piss people off as a Steelhawk myself but I tend to agree with you. Basically a result was released and everyone said that team should be bad and people panicked.

Quote:Interesting as a starting point for sure, but this is exactly the kind of limited and experimental setups that I mean, with an aboslute Superstar line on a single team, but absolutely no one else in the league adjusting to it. It shows that the exploit does indeed exist, but not if and how it would actually play out in a realistic league scenario where teams will adapt and rules can be made to prevent certain extremes. Hell you could even argue that a line with these three players should probably be scoring at such a torrid pace, and that they are undervalued when using their original attributes.

The not trying to adjust was my take from the start. Yes there is an exploit but is there counter play? Now after a season, I still dont know as I have not tried to develop strats to counter it and i doubt gms that have will post results. I dont think there is but I am not positive of this at all. More shots means more chances and goalies either make a save or they dont. With defense being high on literally every player in the league forwards and defensemen have equal opportunity to be in position for the rebound so more shots will lead to more goals on average.

Quote:I actually think that those four concerns are all manageable as well. But i think you missed the one point that was actually the most important one for me at least: A new sim engine would almost definitely be better but even if it was, I'm not sure if the league could survive the switch itself. Plus more than the arguments itself, it often was the dismissive tone in that thread that had me concerned. It didn't seem like constructive criticism was actually wanted, but that the purpose of the thread was to tell everyone who has doubts that they are wrong.

Fair, and this is not something that I have thought of too much tbh. Will numbers go down, ill say probably, but I believe the league will survive since it is so large to begin with. The bottom point again is a fair concern. I left the thread at some point to move on to other things when it got that way or became a "hype" thing. So i dont know what else went on there. It was a good opportunity that some people might have not taken full advantage of.

Quote:I think it would be good to have one central thread with a main post that the league keeps updating, where links to the various test sims and other sources of information are collected, so that people can conduct their own analysis if they chose to, or take a critical look at the data that is already available. So much of this seems to be floating around somewhere, in private conversations, subforums or Discords, but if you don't know the right people or don't have the time to scan everything, you never get the full picture and are either forced to live in the dark and just believe what you are told, or rely on very incomplete information when you wanna participate in the discussion, and risk becoming a part of the problem by spreading misinformation. It's a very unhealthy situation for a league to be in at a time where, as evidenced by the other responses in this thread, frustrations are high and we need to build consensus and elicit as much public support as possible for the significant and risky changes that will likely need to be taken.

Top point I disagree with but I do think a subforum would be a good thing and Ill bring this up come testing time for sure. As far as the top part people in general have an inherent bias (read SHL games or playoff threads) and I think that they will look at the results rather than the data as a whole and what each part means. A sub forum that is actually moderated to get rid of the shit posts and other crap i do believe could be useful however.

Let me know if I missed anything @RomanesEuntDomus

Don't have much to add at the moment so for now, thanks for the good conversation Smile

!

***golden_apricot*** · 01-06-2020, 05:53 PM

01-06-2020, 05:40 PMRomanesEuntDomus Wrote:
01-06-2020, 02:14 PMgolden_apricot Wrote: So I just simply swapped passing and scoring if the players passing was higher than their scoring. Tomen and JY and others just did 40 passing 99 scoring or 70 passing 99 scoring for different teams and saw the outcome. Now I had issues with this in general because it had an inherent assumption that x team should be bad so if this makes them good its broken to some extent like I mentioned with Chicago. 55% over multiple tests relatively consistently (5x500 game seasons) is outside of statistical randomness but not outside of what you might expect in a season. I think in the SHL it might have been higher not positive.

Im not touching this one anymore or else Ill piss people off as a Steelhawk myself but I tend to agree with you. Basically a result was released and everyone said that team should be bad and people panicked.

The not trying to adjust was my take from the start. Yes there is an exploit but is there counter play? Now after a season, I still dont know as I have not tried to develop strats to counter it and i doubt gms that have will post results. I dont think there is but I am not positive of this at all. More shots means more chances and goalies either make a save or they dont. With defense being high on literally every player in the league forwards and defensemen have equal opportunity to be in position for the rebound so more shots will lead to more goals on average.

Fair, and this is not something that I have thought of too much tbh. Will numbers go down, ill say probably, but I believe the league will survive since it is so large to begin with. The bottom point again is a fair concern. I left the thread at some point to move on to other things when it got that way or became a "hype" thing. So i dont know what else went on there. It was a good opportunity that some people might have not taken full advantage of.

Top point I disagree with but I do think a subforum would be a good thing and Ill bring this up come testing time for sure. As far as the top part people in general have an inherent bias (read SHL games or playoff threads) and I think that they will look at the results rather than the data as a whole and what each part means. A sub forum that is actually moderated to get rid of the shit posts and other crap i do believe could be useful however.

Let me know if I missed anything @RomanesEuntDomus

Don't have much to add at the moment so for now, thanks for the good conversation !

No problem Smile

BarnabasCollins · 01-06-2020, 06:12 PM

Just curious if anyone has reached out to Simon T, I heard that we were working with the guys from FHM, has anyone tried to see what Simon has to say?

***Alaska*** · 01-06-2020, 06:24 PM

01-06-2020, 06:12 PMBarnabasCollins Wrote: Just curious if anyone has reached out to Simon T, I heard that we were working with the guys from FHM, has anyone tried to see what Simon has to say?

I’ve been told that we’ve tried before (he’s a massive dick) and he doesn’t actually work with the company anymore (because he’s a massive dick)

Alex Winters (retired)
Matej Winters (retired)
Dominik Winters
S45 Jesster Trophy Winner
Challenge Cup Winning Goal Club: S52

GeckoeyGecko · 01-06-2020, 09:16 PM

01-06-2020, 06:12 PMBarnabasCollins Wrote: Just curious if anyone has reached out to Simon T, I heard that we were working with the guys from FHM, has anyone tried to see what Simon has to say?

simon t the person is reportedly worse than simon t the sim engine

StamkosFan · 01-06-2020, 09:44 PM

Since SHL isn’t doing anything and NSHL hasn’t returned I wonder if people are interested in a CHL reboot

*Leppish* · 01-06-2020, 09:46 PM

01-06-2020, 09:44 PMStamkosFan Wrote: Since SHL isn’t doing anything and NSHL hasn’t returned I wonder if people are interested in a CHL reboot

The one league where i had a good player.

FlappyGiraffe · 01-06-2020, 10:00 PM

01-06-2020, 03:05 PMKeygan Wrote:
01-06-2020, 02:41 PMMike Izzy Wrote: I said this to the head guys a few weeks back that we need like right now to be proactive and begin focusing on the site and keeping interest up while we make the move ...think outside the box and try and find ways to engage the base of members in ways we havnt tried before... cause we’re bleeding members and activity right now... they all got defensive or ignored it... who ever is at the wheel.. it’s time to step up or step aside.

I’ll say it again... time to be creative and make some changes (Note: Cory this is not about you, don’t get defensive)

We’re currently discussing a requirement of a pass first player on lines 1 2 and 4, as well as somewhere in pairing 1 and 2. A maximum gap of 20.

sad times for the shl that you can't trust gms to not use an exploit in sths and are forced to do this

Samsung virtual assistant · 01-06-2020, 10:14 PM

01-06-2020, 10:00 PMFlappyGiraffe Wrote:
01-06-2020, 03:05 PMKeygan Wrote: We’re currently discussing a requirement of a pass first player on lines 1 2 and 4, as well as somewhere in pairing 1 and 2. A maximum gap of 20.
sad times for the shl that you can't trust gms to not use an exploit in sths and are forced to do this

majesiu · 01-07-2020, 05:41 AM

Seems as good reason as any to finally give up on this league too.
And didn't SHL in the past just stopped semi-exploits (iirc something about players averaging unrealistic minutes - I'd say it's similar, since it's not hacking/using bugs, just abusing ? sim logic) like this one with rules and moved on? I'm surprised more teams didn't try to use it to their advantage tbh.

*puolivalmiste* · 01-07-2020, 05:46 AM

01-06-2020, 10:00 PMFlappyGiraffe Wrote:
01-06-2020, 03:05 PMKeygan Wrote: We’re currently discussing a requirement of a pass first player on lines 1 2 and 4, as well as somewhere in pairing 1 and 2. A maximum gap of 20.
sad times for the shl that you can't trust gms to not use an exploit in sths and are forced to do this

So what should be counted as using the exploit? Is one player with 40 passing too much? How about 50 passing? Or is 13 shoot firsts exploiting but 12 is fair game? And who picks the line where it can be considered exploiting if there is no rules?

But about the topic more in general, what my own test (with too small sample size to be sure), what I have heard from Hamilton and what HO has posted to me it seems pretty clear that shooting always is better than passing, difference is noticeable (while not maybe sim breaking) and solutions with SimonT can't get around it and while there might be ways to mitigate the effect, players with high scoring seem to perform better which means sooner or later everyone is told to make shoot first players cause they are better, new people were already strongly adviced building players that fit the meta.

I see those proposed rulechanges as okayish bandaid if they push all teams closer to even playingfield. It does not make those teams, lines or players better but gives pass first players spots on top lines. But longer we run with these more they limit players developement, which is in my opinion biggest issue when it comes to any solutions with SimonT. Imagine being part of next draft and then being told by your GM that scoring is better stats but we need your player to be that one suboptimal rosterfiller who can't hava meta build, sure will keep them exited, just like all pass first players are happy now.

***golden_apricot*** · 01-07-2020, 06:12 AM

01-07-2020, 05:46 AMpuolivalmiste Wrote:
01-06-2020, 10:00 PMFlappyGiraffe Wrote: sad times for the shl that you can't trust gms to not use an exploit in sths and are forced to do this

So what should be counted as using the exploit? Is one player with 40 passing too much? How about 50 passing? Or is 13 shoot firsts exploiting but 12 is fair game? And who picks the line where it can be considered exploiting if there is no rules?

But about the topic more in general, what my own test (with too small sample size to be sure), what I have heard from Hamilton and what HO has posted to me it seems pretty clear that shooting always is better than passing, difference is noticeable (while not maybe sim breaking) and solutions with SimonT can't get around it and while there might be ways to mitigate the effect, players with high scoring seem to perform better which means sooner or later everyone is told to make shoot first players cause they are better, new people were already strongly adviced building players that fit the meta.

I see those proposed rulechanges as okayish bandaid if they push all teams closer to even playingfield. It does not make those teams, lines or players better but gives pass first players spots on top lines. But longer we run with these more they limit players developement, which is in my opinion biggest issue when it comes to any solutions with SimonT. Imagine being part of next draft and then being told by your GM that scoring is better stats but we need your player to be that one suboptimal rosterfiller who can't hava meta build, sure will keep them exited, just like all pass first players are happy now.

Kinda nailed it tbh. GMs knew that you needed more scorers (PA>SC) on a line for a long time and no one tried all scorers until this season. To say we were not already forcing builds to an extent would be ridiculous. The major issue comes from the fact that now teams will force players into scoring or just not draft anyone pass first (which was already happening, see defensive defensmen). We have not discusses if the build requirements are going to be a thing in juniors. Teams in the past have run this on accident and performed well, but other teams have out performed teams doing this as well. i might run a few tests to make sure and we will make adjustments based off those and how the rest of HO feels.

I dont think we use STH for much longer, I dont see how we can with the exact problem you outlines above which is why we hope FHM is ready after this upcoming season.

grok · 01-08-2020, 01:25 AM

lol yall still havent figured this shit out?

***Alaska*** · 01-08-2020, 01:42 AM

01-08-2020, 01:25 AMgrok Wrote: lol yall still havent figured this shit out?

You have too much faith in certain people if you expected this to be quick lol

Alex Winters (retired)
Matej Winters (retired)
Dominik Winters
S45 Jesster Trophy Winner
Challenge Cup Winning Goal Club: S52

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