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RomanesEuntDomus · 01-10-2019, 11:07 PM

I think it's quite likely that BadWolf is either the jester or the turncoat - in which case we shouldn't kill her, but simply ignore her.

Sean · 01-10-2019, 11:07 PM

I'm just assuming we're going to risk the next night (It might not be the best play, but I just assume that's how it's going to go down).

Next-night
2 people are most-likely getting eliminated. 1/14 chance it's the escort from hanging, somewhere in between 1/9 and 1/12 depending on how many wolves are left from hunting. (approx 15.4% to 18.2% of escort being caught)

2 nights
we have a 1/12 chance in picking the escort (approx 8.3% chance of escort being caught) Total risk of waiting this long 22.4% to 24.9%

3 nights
we have a 1/11 or a 1/7 to 1/9 chance the escort gets picked (approx 21.1% to 23.3%) with a running total of 38% to 43% risk of the escort being caught by this point.

This is based entirely on random chance, let alone ruling certain people out as escorts. If we keep waiting it's likely our escort is going to die, without giving us the info of who the alpha wolf is. If we guess who the Alpha is without the escort telling us, as a group it's just as likely we killed the Alpha as we killed the escort. If the escort lets us know afterward to confirm, they're going to instantly become a target just like they would if they told us now.

I am heavily advocating that we get this info out and confirmed sooner rather than later. I don't think the info the escort gets on off nights is worth potentially losing the Alpha wolf.

Sorry, I'm going to @ everyone so they can see this. I hope even if the majority of people can't see it, the escort realizes how important this is.
@Ace
@TheWoZy
@Dangles13
@AtlasHunter
@39alaska39
@Good_Ole_Kimmy
@BRayne
@Troy_McClure03
@RomanesEuntDomus
@ml002
@JKortesi81
@TommySalami
@BadWolf

EDM All-Time Leader in Goals, Assists and Points

ml002 · 01-10-2019, 11:15 PM

01-10-2019, 11:07 PMTommySalami Wrote: I'm just assuming we're going to risk the next night (It might not be the best play, but I just assume that's how it's going to go down).

Next-night
2 people are most-likely getting eliminated. 1/14 chance it's the escort from hanging, somewhere in between 1/9 and 1/12 depending on how many wolves are left from hunting. (approx 15.4% to 18.2% of escort being caught)

2 nights
we have a 1/12 chance in picking the escort (approx 8.3% chance of escort being caught) Total risk of waiting this long 22.4% to 24.9%

3 nights
we have a 1/11 or a 1/7 to 1/9 chance the escort gets picked (approx 21.1% to 23.3%) with a running total of 38% to 43% risk of the escort being caught by this point.

This is based entirely on random chance, let alone ruling certain people out as escorts. If we keep waiting it's likely our escort is going to die, without giving us the info of who the alpha wolf is. If we guess who the Alpha is without the escort telling us, as a group it's just as likely we killed the Alpha as we killed the escort. If the escort lets us know afterward to confirm, they're going to instantly become a target just like they would if they told us now.

I am heavily advocating that we get this info out and confirmed sooner rather than later. I don't think the info the escort gets on off nights is worth potentially losing the Alpha wolf.

Sorry, I'm going to @ everyone so they can see this. I hope even if the majority of people can't see it, the escort realizes how important this is.
@Ace
@TheWoZy
@Dangles13
@AtlasHunter
@39alaska39
@Good_Ole_Kimmy
@BRayne
@Troy_McClure03
@RomanesEuntDomus
@ml002
@JKortesi81
@TommySalami
@BadWolf

I say if we are at risk for losing the alpha then the escort really needs to step in and let us know. Doc can save them and then we get another night guaranteed. Hopefully the seer has one wolf then we have half of them spotted

Credit to Copenhagen, Wasty, FlappyGiraffe, InciteHysteria, and caltroit_red_flames
[Image: MM4nqx6.png]

JackHrīm · 01-10-2019, 11:17 PM

are we looking to actually ask escort to reveal and get doctor protect how do we even know they doc hasnt already died @"TommySalami"

ml002 · 01-10-2019, 11:18 PM

01-10-2019, 11:17 PMAtlasHunter Wrote: are we looking to actually ask escort to reveal and get doctor protect how do we even know they doc hasnt already died @"TommySalami"

We don't but the wolves don't know either tbf. They risk wasting two nights in a row attacking the night of the reveal

Credit to Copenhagen, Wasty, FlappyGiraffe, InciteHysteria, and caltroit_red_flames
[Image: MM4nqx6.png]

JackHrīm · 01-10-2019, 11:19 PM

01-10-2019, 11:18 PMml002 Wrote:
01-10-2019, 11:17 PMAtlasHunter Wrote: are we looking to actually ask escort to reveal and get doctor protect how do we even know they doc hasnt already died @"TommySalami"

We don't but the wolves don't know either tbf. They risk wasting two nights in a row attacking the night of the reveal

so we do want reveal?

Sean · 01-10-2019, 11:21 PM

01-10-2019, 11:17 PMAtlasHunter Wrote: are we looking to actually ask escort to reveal and get doctor protect how do we even know they doc hasnt already died @"TommySalami"

We don't know, but we would basically force them to pick other targets because they would potentially waste a night if the doctor is alive.

EDM All-Time Leader in Goals, Assists and Points

JackHrīm · 01-10-2019, 11:26 PM

@Mack
@Ace
@TheWoZy
@Dangles13
@Good_Ole_Kimmy
@BRayne
@Troy_McClure03
@RomanesEuntDomus
@ml002
@JKortesi81
@"TommySalami"
@BadWolf

GOOD BYE BOYS ITS BEEN A NICE RUN I AM THE ESCORT 39ALASKA39 IS ALPHA I WANTED TO MERC HIM BEFORE I GO CUZ I CANT BLOCK HIM TONIGHT ITS BEEN FUN MY OTHER NOMMINIES FOR TRYING TO OUTVOTE BUT NOT DRAW SUS AFTER WE GOT 2 ON ALASKA STAY ON GAURD AND HANG THE SHIT OUTAA JKORTESI81 AND GOOD OL KIMMY I KNOW KIMMY IS CHARMING AND AMAZING BUT HANG THESE BOIS FOR MY DYING WISH

Sean · 01-10-2019, 11:28 PM

01-10-2019, 11:26 PMAtlasHunter Wrote: @Mack
@Ace
@TheWoZy
@Dangles13
@Good_Ole_Kimmy
@BRayne
@Troy_McClure03
@RomanesEuntDomus
@ml002
@JKortesi81
@"TommySalami"
@BadWolf

GOOD BYE BOYS ITS BEEN A NICE RUN I AM THE ESCORT 39ALASKA39 IS ALPHA I WANTED TO MERC HIM BEFORE I GO CUZ I CANT BLOCK HIM TONIGHT ITS BEEN FUN MY OTHER NOMMINIES FOR TRYING TO OUTVOTE BUT NOT DRAW SUS AFTER WE GOT 2 ON ALASKA STAY ON GAURD AND HANG THE SHIT OUTAA JKORTESI81 AND GOOD OL KIMMY I KNOW KIMMY IS CHARMING AND AMAZING BUT HANG THESE BOIS FOR MY DYING WISH

Thank you!

EDM All-Time Leader in Goals, Assists and Points

Sean · 01-10-2019, 11:30 PM

@Durden

Change from Jkortesi to 39alaska39

EDM All-Time Leader in Goals, Assists and Points

ml002 · 01-10-2019, 11:30 PM

Well doc if you are alive you can keep us going

Credit to Copenhagen, Wasty, FlappyGiraffe, InciteHysteria, and caltroit_red_flames
[Image: MM4nqx6.png]

ml002 · 01-10-2019, 11:31 PM

01-10-2019, 11:30 PMTommySalami Wrote: @Durden

Change from Jkortesi to 39alaska39

Why are you voting for the alpha? They killing still happens if you kill the alpha since it switches after their death

Credit to Copenhagen, Wasty, FlappyGiraffe, InciteHysteria, and caltroit_red_flames
[Image: MM4nqx6.png]

Sean · 01-10-2019, 11:31 PM

Actually you're right, we should vote Jkortesi ans Kimmy off first.

@Durden change my vote back to Jkortesi81

EDM All-Time Leader in Goals, Assists and Points

***Ace*** · 01-10-2019, 11:37 PM

I vote for JKortesi81

Sean · 01-10-2019, 11:38 PM

I really thought it was mack when he kept saying, but what if we're on the right track lol

EDM All-Time Leader in Goals, Assists and Points

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