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awils13 · 03-24-2019, 07:41 AM

In this article we’re going to be using advanced and regular stats to identify players who were underwhelming this season but will break out next year, assuming they’ll stay in the SMJHL.

1. Michael Scarn - C (Raiders) 9-19-28, -7 in 50 GP/19.34AMG. TPE: 350+
28 points isn’t really bad but you probably expected a lot more from a capped build of a sophomore player who improved by only 9 points compared to his rookie season. He started the year with Colorado but was traded to Halifax after 40 games. What’s interesting is he performed even worse as a Raider, recording 0 goals and 2 assists in 10 games.

Nevertheless, there are a lot of positive signs if you look at his underlying numbers. Scarn had a 52.07 Corsi, 13/6 primary assist ratio and 71.8 IPP. All of this is good and indicates that he drove possession and generated offense.

So why did he underperform then? Perhaps, the answer lies in his 7.32% SHT%, or in a nice but low 6.99 5v5sh%. Both of these numbers are significantly below average. Scarn wasn’t liked much by his goalies either as they had a 0.884 sv% when he was on the ice. This resulted in a 954 PDO which is generally not sustainable. He also hit the post 4 times. So most likely, Scarn was just unlucky and we can expect his numbers to improve in the near future.

S47 projection: 17-26-43, +14

2. Isaac Yamada – D (Scarecrows) 0-13-13, -11 in 50 GP/14.61AMG. TPE: 239

Well, we can’t say that Yamada was bad this season. Drafted in the third round by St. Louis, Yamada scored 13 points which is pretty good for a rookie, especially if you consider that he averaged only 14 minutes of ice time. It’s his -11 rating that we’d like to see improved. He’s a defensive defenseman, after all.

Let’s look at his advanced stats: 51.72 Corsi | 8.68sh% | 0.872 5v5sv% | 958 PDO | 1.38 STL/TO
The most interesting stat here is the 0.872sv% which explains his low +/-. Either his team gave up a lot of high-danger scoring chances when he was on the ice or this is just a result of some unlucky bounces.

While Yamada won’t score a lot of points, he’ll likely finish with a positive +/- rating next season which would be a significant step forward. Though it’s worth noting that he hasn’t updated this week but even with his current build he’ll do much better.

S47 projection: 2-19-21, +6

3. Theo Morgan – RW (Whalers) 4-3-7, -4 in 50 GP/14.96AMG. TPE: 213

Ok, this one is biased and possibly a humblebrag but I think TM will be the most improved player next season.

First, let’s recap how he did in his rookie year. Signed as a free agent, he spent most of the season on the third line and, well, didn’t do much. If you’re a forward, 7 points is bad even if you’re a rookie. Heck, even a 159 TPE build of Isaiah Reece (Halifax, inactive) did better in 6.01 minutes per game.

Other than maybe a high 0.915 5v5sv%, none of Morgan’s advanced stats stand out in a positive way (47.1 Corsi, 7.22 5v5sh%, 987 PDO, 0.8 STL/TO). His IPP was laughably low at 25%. In case you don’t know what that means, he got a point on 1 out of 4 goals scored while he was on the ice and overall, his line didn’t score much.

So why do I think he’ll improve significantly next season? The Whalers’ top line of Mikulak – Cannellini – Gray is probably set in stone but there isn’t much depth scoring after that. Which means there is opportunity for players to step up and with 3 active rookie forwards besides Gray, the future seems bright for Vancouver. I think it’s fairly likely that the Whalers’ second line next season will be Morgan – Wilson – Raanta and in my opinion, this line could be very good.

S47 projection: 17-19-36, +13.

***luke*** · 03-24-2019, 10:08 AM

I hope 36 points, if Morgan doesn’t have 36 points I’ll trade him :eyes: good shit Aaron

Daco · 03-24-2019, 11:47 AM

No doubt in my mind Theo will step up like Boro and Petr did this year. Him Wilson Raanta will carry our secondary scoring

*Otrebor13* · 03-24-2019, 03:31 PM

Well damn, thanks for the high expectations for next season. @"luketd" you would have traded me anyways, so I'm not worried about it.

Excellent article though and thanks for the mention!

fever95 · 03-24-2019, 04:41 PM

Noah Gallagher should be much more improved next season from his 1 assist and -10 this season...i hope so anyways! ?

awils13 · 03-24-2019, 05:05 PM

03-24-2019, 04:41 PMfever95 Wrote: Noah Gallagher should be much more improved next season from his 1 assist and -10 this season...i hope so anyways! ?

Definitely... You actually have the lowest IPP (12.5) among players with at least 1 point. Nowhere to go but up

Daco · 03-24-2019, 05:27 PM

03-24-2019, 03:31 PMOtrebor13 Wrote: Well damn, thanks for the high expectations for next season. @"luketd" you would have traded me anyways, so I'm not worried about it.

Excellent article though and thanks for the mention!

Nah I demand trade too if you get traded

SecondSucks22 · 03-24-2019, 11:41 PM

03-24-2019, 05:27 PMDaco Wrote:
03-24-2019, 03:31 PMOtrebor13 Wrote: Well damn, thanks for the high expectations for next season. @"luketd" you would have traded me anyways, so I'm not worried about it.

Excellent article though and thanks for the mention!

Nah I demand trade too if you get traded

Perfect @"luketd" 2 for one deal let's go

***luke*** · 03-24-2019, 11:42 PM

03-24-2019, 11:41 PMSecondSucks22 Wrote:
03-24-2019, 05:27 PMDaco Wrote: Nah I demand trade too if you get traded

Perfect @"luketd" 2 for one deal let's go

EZ 4 1st round picks

SecondSucks22 · 03-24-2019, 11:58 PM

03-24-2019, 11:42 PMluketd Wrote:
03-24-2019, 11:41 PMSecondSucks22 Wrote: Perfect @"luketd" 2 for one deal let's go

EZ 4 1st round picks

Mostly for daco

*Otrebor13* · 03-25-2019, 11:58 AM

03-24-2019, 11:58 PMSecondSucks22 Wrote:
03-24-2019, 11:42 PMluketd Wrote: EZ 4 1st round picks

Mostly for daco

Agreed

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