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CementHands · 12-23-2019, 04:49 PM

Hey Hey Hey,
Last year's edition of this came after exhibition and I nailed the overall winner! Basically an oracle. Anyways This edition I want to go over last season's prediction and do a pre playoff one for this season. Overall it should be easier and more accurate because we are finished the whole season this time, not just exebition.
For those of you who want to follow along, here is a link to the last prediction.
For the lazy sloths of the bunch, here is the final standing prediction:

Champions: Montreal Militia Carolina Kracken Kraken

Finalists: Colorado Raptors Raptors

Semi Finalists: Detroit Falcons Falcons

and Lethbridge Lions Lions

5th: Vancouver Whalers

6th: Anaheim Outlaws

7th: Halifax raiders

8th: Anchorage Armada

9th: St. Louis Scarecrows

10th: Kelowna Knights

Ok! Phew, that burned a calorie getting all that in place, now let's take a look at the actual finish and I'll give the difference from the prediction:

Champions: Montreal Militia Carolina Kracken Kraken

Finalists: Colorado Raptors Raptors

Semi Finalists: Detroit Falcons Falcons

and Anchorage Armada

+4
5th Lethbridge Lions Lions

-1
6th: St. Louis Scarecrows

+3
7th: Vancouver Whalers

-2
8th: Anaheim Outlaws

-2
9th: Kelowna Knights

+1
10th: Halifax raiders

-3

What does this mean? Well a few things seem to pop out: First of all I was able to nail 3 out of the top 4 teams exactly, and that exhibition standings don't really mean a whole lot, but they can give you a rough idea about a teams pure talent. I'd also venture far enough to say that regular season standings also don't mean much because otherwise the top team or 2 should be a shoe-in to win everything, and we can see from the last few years that's not a sure thing.

Ok, last little bit on last season before we start to dig into the juices of this season, and the part of the post that everyone wants to know so they can rush out and place bets. There are 10 teams in the league, so at maximum a team can move 9 places. With a precision score (total amount of places off) of 74/90 or 82.2% let's have a look at the end of Exebition standings and see who is better:

1 - Colorado (34-15-1) -1 (2nd)
2 - Detroit (32-13-5) -1 (3rd / 4th)
3 - Carolina (27-13-5) +2 (1st)
4 - Anaheim (29-16-5) -4 (8th)
5 - Vancouver (28-22-0) -2 (7th)
6 - Lethbridge(22-17-11) +1 (5th)
7 - Anchorage (24-21-5) +3 (3rd / 4th)
8 - Halifax (22-25-3) -2 (10th)
9 - St. Louis (17-30-3) +3 (6th)
10 - Kelowna (15-29-6) +1 (9th)

Ok, well every single position changed, so post exebition is not a great way to judge playoff finishes. The standings scored a 70/90 on precision - 77.7%
Last bit, teams 3-4,5-8,9-10 Could all be scored within their range as then went out at the same time in the playoffs. I decided placement based on which teams they lost to, if you lost to Carolina you would be higher than a team that lost to Detroit for example.

Now, without further ado let me present this season's final standings and predictions!
1 - Carolina (35-12-3)
2 - Anchorage (28-16-6)
3 - Halifax (28-17-5)
4 - Lethbridge (25-19-6)
5 - Kelowna (24-23-3)
6 - St. Louis (23-23-4)
7 - Colorado (23-25-2)
8 - Anaheim (23-25-2)
9 - Detroit (21-25-4)
10 - Vancouver (20-25-5)

Round 1: 7 Colorado Raptors

vs 10 Vancouver Whalers

, 8 Anaheim Outlaws

vs 9 Detroit Falcons

Colorado

wins series 4 - 2
Vancouver traded away some of their pieces near the end of the season and they are fully embracing the draft rebuild. I think they squeak a couple of wins in close games, but ultimately fall short of advancing.
Detroit Falcons

Sweeps series 4 - 0
This is more of a statement by Detroit rather than any failing on Anaheim. They are a young team running into a very talented Falcons roster where I can't figure out why they finished so low. They have firepower to spoil brackets, and I think they move through round 1 very smoothly.

Round 2: 1 Carolina Kraken

vs 9 Detroit Falcons

, 2 Anchorage Armada

vs 7 Colorado Raptors

, 3 Halifax raiders

vs 6 St. Louis Scarecrows

, 4 Lethbridge Lions

vs 5 Kelowna Knights

Carolina

wins a tough series 4 - 3
A very high octane series where I think Carolina's defense makes the difference. The champs aren't going down this quickly and are going to take a very hard fought, bloody and high scoring series. Bonus prediction: this will be the highest scoring series in the SMJHL playoffs. Detroit got here, but unfortunately ran into an ocean full of squids and couldn't sustain flight to get back to land.
Anchorage Armada

prevails 4 - 1
What happened in the last quarter of the season to the Armada? I have a feeling that stumble is going to be corrected and we are going to witness the same Anchorage team that tore the league apart at the start of the season. Coronado isn't going to have the depth to match them and Anchorage's top line is going to have a field day.
Halifax raiders

squeaks out 4-3
Oof, this is a nailbiter all the way down to game 7 overtime. These teams are matched very evenly and it's going to be a shootout right down to the wire, I think that extra home game for Halifax is going to be the clincher.
Lethbridge Lions

4-2
The Lion's are going to be the dominating team and although Kelowna will sneak out 2 wins they will be outplayed this series by simply the better team. Tegernako is going to prove very tough to solve and will win a few games alone, even though he won't have to for the Lions to move on.

Round 3: 1 Carolina Kraken

vs 4 Lethbridge Lions

, 2 Anchorage Armada

vs 3 Halifax raiders

Carolina

wins, again series goes the distance, 4 - 3
Where last series for Carolina was an offensive explosion, this one is the polar opposite. 7 games of stifling defense and goal tending, my bonus prediction is this is the series with the lowest AVERAGE goals scored per game.
Halifax raiders

gets broken, doesn't break. Takes the series 4 - 2
Of course this author thinks Halifax is going to take this series. This is the biased opinion of the piece. I do think it will be a series of close games, but come on, I can't pick the best finishing team out of every match up, there's no fun, excitement, or danger in that. Raiders will ride the waves to victory after stealing away home ice advantage by splitting games 1 and 2 in Alaska.

Round 4: 1 Carolina Kraken

vs 3 Halifax raiders

Kraken

threepeat and remain champtions, 4-3
Wait, what? Everything I said in the series right above this be dammed. Carolina is too good in all aspects of the game to discount them. Yes, I think each of their series are going to 7, so I'm more than likely wrong on that account, but I think each of the matchups they are facing will be close for different reasons. I think Carolina will hold on and for the first time in 3 years (maybe more, I don't feel like looking up past champs) the top seeded team through the regular season will remain on top of the podium at the end. Is this the final year of the Kracken reign? Stay tuned to next season's installment!

Kindly send all TD's to GA.
Please rigorously point out in responses how I didn't take into account x factor or that my huge Raider bias is showing. All concerns and omissions will be noted and deeply cared about.

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