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S50 Race to 1k TPE Update
#1

Well this has been a long time coming.  For those of you that don't know what this is - in the S50 discord a few of us were arguing who will be the best TPE earners of the class and rather than just talk shit we started a pool to put our money where our mouth is.  You can see the original bet here, but the short version is that you had to put in $2M into the pool and first one to hit 1,000 TPE takes it all.  While there was quite a bit of interest initially, when it came time to put up the money only 5 of us came through.

Ian Venables @"toirekari"
Hariken Urawa @uhh
Ryan Shepard @Naosu
Adam Barron @charlieconway
Ivan Maximus @thiefofcheese


I meant to do an update once a season or so but haven't done a single media piece on it since creation.   In the 4 seasons we've been in the SHL we've managed to lose 2 of our bettors to inactivity.  Sad to see you go @"toirekari" and @uhh.   Both were great but I assume life got in the way.    RIP and thanks for your contribution to the pot!  

So that leaves 3 of us still in the hunt for the win.  I did the legwork to all of this about 2 weeks ago but never got around to finishing the post, so this data is accurate through the 2/11/20 update.

Current ranking:

3rd:   Ivan Maximus - 747 TPE
2nd:  Ryan Shepard - 775 TPE
1st:  Adam Barron - 779 TPE

As you can see there - the top 2 are neck and neck and I'm fizzling out in a pretty distant 3rd.   However, I felt like I didn't miss all that much so I wanted to see how the hell they got so far away from me.   So I went through and did an "audit" of sorts of the TPE opportunities since we joined to see where things went sideways.

After looking at all of the TPE opportunities I found that there are 2 different kinds of TPE.   Those that give a known amount of TPE for doing the thing - which I have labeled as "Standard TPE" - and those that give varying levels of TPE due to effort, skill, or luck - which I have labeled as "Acquired TPE".  

Since I'm sucking the most in this I'll start with my "misses" which are Standard TPE that I didn't get:
  • 1 missed AC and Training the same week - I still did the other claims but just forgot to do those b/c I'm stupid
  • I missed 3 TPE in S50 CW because I had some TBD items to come back to but I forgot b/c I'm stupid
  • Total of 10 Standard TPE missed
And now for Ryan Shepard's misses:
  • 3 missed PT's.   2 last season and 1 this season
  • 1 Christmas Special TPE missed
  • Total of 10 Standard TPE missed
Finally Adam Barron's misses:
  • None.   Seriously, this dude is a stud and hasn't missed a single Standard TPE opportunity since joining.   
  • Total of 0 Standard TPE missed
     
So all TPE opportunities being equal Barron should have a 10 point lead and Shepard and Maximus would be tied.   But TPE isn't equal - there is a considerable amount of TPE gained through things like 3v3s, PBPs (yuck!), fantasy, and others.     I intended on doing a walk through of  each place one of us got more or less TPE than the others, but am running out of time.   You can see my breakdown of the TPE earned by each person on the tracker sheet linked in the original post and here for you lazy people.

While it's getting close, I think it could still go to any of the top 3, but would need a significant amount of luck for Maximus to get it. Though I am not above bribery if anyone here can ensure that Barron and Shepard can't buy equipment this season or if their account gets suspended for some completely valid reason...

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#2

It helps that I got 3 seasons of PbPs in a row.

thanks for putting this together

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#3

Didn't realize I dropped a Christmas Special TPE, poop. I've been missing PTs on purpose as I still end up capped. I also missed this season's playoff predictions as the turnover was fairly quick.

Barron probably has it if it's on an average week. My best hope now is to split 50/50.

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#4
(This post was last modified: 02-28-2020, 05:22 AM by Henrik.)

I definitely thought that more than 5 guys joined up for this. Only reason I didn't is because I didn't have the cash at the time. Looks like it's going to be a tight race to the finish!

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#5

great analysis

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#6

Gonna be tough to make up ground now. We will see what the PT team has in store but not sure pbps will be a thing in FHM, when we can just livestream the games. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds. Ive been keeping an eye on the TPE rankings for our class (for no other reason than 18th OA if im honest) and you can see distinct tiers which is kinda cool. I wonder if any of us can catch rich though.
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#7

I'm still cheering for budgie





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#8

02-28-2020, 09:11 AMGrapehead Wrote: I'm still cheering for budgie

Does someone want to tell him???? (yes i know budgie came back to activity this week)
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#9

02-28-2020, 09:13 AMgolden_apricot Wrote:
02-28-2020, 09:11 AMGrapehead Wrote: I'm still cheering for budgie

Does someone want to tell him???? (yes i know budgie came back to activity this week)

You think the guy with the 23 TPE inactive is gonna give up that quickly? LOL





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#10

02-28-2020, 09:13 AMgolden_apricot Wrote:
02-28-2020, 09:11 AMGrapehead Wrote: I'm still cheering for budgie

Does someone want to tell him???? (yes i know budgie came back to activity this week)

WHA? He's back??

Cheers

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#11

02-28-2020, 11:32 AMthiefofcheese Wrote:
02-28-2020, 09:13 AMgolden_apricot Wrote: Does someone want to tell him???? (yes i know budgie came back to activity this week)

WHA?  He's back??

Cheers

Yea he's back. Still got a fair bit of life stuff to deal with though.

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#12

Hey all, just checking in. I am indeed back

Sidenote: Since there's no way for me to win this (515 TPE boo  Surrender ) I am offering my official endorsement for @thiefofcheese. Time for the final push man!

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