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Rancidbudgie · 04-17-2021, 08:44 PM

Revisting the idea of IIHF Expansion

Plus: What nations are in a healthy place to be in consideration?

Word count: 8300

Hello everyone! Two seasons ago, I wrote an article outlining the surge in SHL users foreshadowing a potential IIHF expansion:
https://simulationhockey.com/showthread.php?tid=111343
While there is obviously no promise of such an expansion, I theorycrafted what nations might have been good options for a potential one, if any future discussions developed into a tangible expansion bidding process. Now, further down the road, I have only seen the activity and consistency of users increase in the SHL since then, so I thought I’d revisit my old rubrics and see if any nations strengthened or weakened their odds to be the 15th and 16th IIHF teams to represent the international SHL scene, when the time eventually comes. With the recent announcement of SHL expansion occurring in S60, the case for user activity clearly has an already persuasive argument, as HO has deemed the league membership healthy enough to sustain 20 SHL Teams. When the league expanded in S46, the IIHF also received an expansion. The S56 expansion, in my opinion, was probably wise to expand the SHL while leaving the IIHF the size it is. Now, with the job of IIHF Head being newly appointed, one of the first tasks to consider for the newcomer will be the health of the IIHF tournaments, and whether they could feasibly expand alongside the SHL once more.

At the writing of my last article two seasons ago, I theorized that the then-current rate of >400 active users was just a little too short of having a large enough pool for 16 nations. While each team could still theoretically have room for a full roster of 20+, in my opinion it left too little room for error, and with some nations naturally being more popular choices than others, I assumed it would be more reasonable to expand when those numbers at least began to approach 450 unique and active users consitently on the site. With that time having come, I also wanted to investigate the health of the current IIHF nations, to see if expanding would even be feasible if other nations were struggling for active players. Overall, the main questions I will be asking in this article are these:

- Is it feasible or realistic for the SHL to have an expansion now, or in the immediate future?

- If so, which nations are able to submit a bid, and are most likely to succeed in winning one?

For those of you about to recreate and who wonder where your next player will be from, perhaps this artcle can introduce you to a group of players already representing a potential IIHF nation, and to get a head start on becoming a good enough player to make the inaugural squad with your next recreate!

Part 1: The Initial Pitch - Is there even room for an IIHF expansion?

Looking at the IIHF eligibility pages (which do NOT include the S60 class and some of the later S59 class of players, keep in mind)

There are two overflowing nations:
The United States (158 players) and Canada (126) - Historically both have players transfer out almost every season, and always field fully active rosters

There are four very healthy nations:
Sweden (66 players), Finland (59 players), Great Britain (55 players), and the Czech Republic (50 players) - recently, all of these nations field fully active rosters for IIHF competition (maaaybe minus a backup goalie), and have a robust group of active players, especially at the top.

There are five moderately healthy nations: Japan (46 players), Russia (43 players), Ireland (41 players), Switzerland (38 players), and Latvia (36 players) - These nations are slightly smaller, and are still sometimes fully active in their rosters, but might have an IA or two every now and then. They have a very healthy core of actives, but have a smaller population of players to draw from. % - wise, at least these smaller nations are more active than their larger peers.

There is only one nation that I would deem to be moderately unhealthy in enrolment, if based on the raw numbers - Austria (33 players). You need 20 players to field a full IIHF roster with 4 forward lines, 3 defensive pairings, and 2 goaltenders, so a buffer of 13 players (in addition to the potential of transfers in) is still quite nice, but could be a little unforgiving for the fluctuations in activity/inactivity of the SHL. However, Austria almost doesn’t belong in this category as I would like to point out: the youth movement in Austria right now is remarkable, even compared to its peers. The S58 class on its own is outstanding and very active with 6 strong players, and the S50’s in general have a trove of good active Austrians to draw from. Once those mid-late S50’s grow up a bit, I expect Austria will be back to consistently competing for medals as they have done before. So despite the lower number of immediately eligible players, I can observe that Austria is far more healthy than meets the eye.

Finally, there are under 40 Unassigned players who could transfer into any other nation, although only a handful of these are active players still, as most users transfer to an existing nation by the time they could begin to crack an IIHF roster.

So with all of that said, the current federations appear to all be in a healthy place right now, and some seem to suffer only in comparison to the top nations, rather than in a vacuum. If another expansion were to take place, and somehow each nation perfectly evenly “lost out” on those 30 to 40-ish players to the new roster spots on the expansion nations, the two added teams would combine on average to take a potential 2.5 users from each squad (level of activity a non-factor) - and in my opinion, there isn’t a federation right now that can’t handle that, especially if the current transfer system continues to encourage a healthy flow out of overcrowded nations, and keeps availability open for transfers to the smaller nations.

Part 2: Fixing my old rubrics from my last analysis

With my previous article, I picked 10 higher-interest teams, and then ranked them in three categories from 1-10, 1 being the worst out of the sampled nations and 10 the highest. I then sorted out which options had the highest score. While this was an okay method in a vacuum, I acknowledged a few problems with my method, that I’ve tried to address here. I guess this project/series for me is an un-subtle but indirect form of campaigning for the next IIHF expansion, so until that happens I hope I can update my rubric to better represent the potential nations to establish federations for.

The three criteria on which I judge strengths for a potential successful IIHF expansion bid remain the same in themselves: they are -

Category one is Member Interest (MI). Arguably the most important one, it is simply a reflection on where users want their players to be from, or a nation they would like to suit up for. This is really gauged somewhat subjectively, as the best way of ascertaining this is by seeing where players are born when a member creates a new player. The benefit of unlimited unassigned transfers is that members can make a player from anywhere in the world (or beyond it) that isn’t one of the existing IIHF Nations, and then transfer where you were going to play anyways later. Simply put, the more players I see born in a given non-IIHF country, the better the MI score.

Category two is Ice Hockey Realism (IHR). Simply put, we want nations that at least have a hockey program. The more “Meme Teams” aside (*cough* IRELAND *coughcoughcough*), the IIHF nations largely reflect nations that also have IRL hockey programs, and are more likely to have users of the SHL that actually live there/hail from there. So despite maybe scoring high on other categories, places like Micronesia, Uganda, Antarctica, or The Mobius Strip might fall a bit flat on the IHR scale.

The third and final category is Linguistic Variety (LVR). It can be exciting to build a player that comes from a more unique cultural or ethnic background, and certain names or language groups for players overlap with existing teams. For example, we already have THREE nations that would be likely destinations for a new player who wants a Germanic-sounding name (Germany, Austria, and Switzerland). So adding somewhere like Lichtenstien to that list just splits those players further, in my opinion. This category is where a nation like Japan would thrive (were they not already an IIHF nation), as they were the first East Asian team in the IIHF, and had many members interested in making a Japanese player with culturally and linguistically accurate names (or cultural references like Ryu Hyabusa or Light Yagami) that were a refreshing step removed from more Euro-centric names. This category does also play into realism a bit, as there are some players that really push for authenticity having their players sound linguistically correct to the country they hail from (I am guilty here, looking up the traditional Romanian spelling of Nicolae for my player before creating). How cool would it be to have a team like Venezuela, which would become a rational cultural and linguistic choice for all Central-and-South American players to transfer to? The LV category is here to support more unique teams that make it feel like more of a WORLD Championship, and give more creative users a place to aim for nationally/linguistically.

My biggest problem with the rubrics last time was that for all 3 categories, nations got a 1-10 score in relation to the other selections in a flat scale that didn’t have any proportion. The difference between the 10th and 9th ranked nations could be smaller than that of the 7th and 6th, but the point scaling would make it the same difference of weight when coming up with totals. So I scrapped that system and did three major things:

- First, I kept the range of players to investigate from S50 or newer, same as last time. With the first of the S60 draft class being created now, that now gives us 10 seasons of players to draw from in regards to active members. While there are definitely plenty of players from the S40’s that could contribute to the conversation, as expansion isn’t immediately around the corner or even guaranteed, looking at the youth movement is the way to go here in order to paint an accurate picture of the average SHL user’s current interest in a nation.

- Second, I expanded the number of nations I considered for grading their expansion-bid worthiness. In this case, I went from 10 to 20. I found that, between the S50 and S60 classes, there were just shy of 20 nations that had at least two players (Active or Inactive) that had that naion listed as their birth one, so it rounded out quite nicely there, as well as giving a little more perspective to the comparison between the nations that are represented. These top-20 nations are those that have made the cut to appear in this article.

- Finally, and perhaps most importantly, I made some of the rubrics I use more empirical, with a formula to use, rather than just by comparison in a 1-10 list. This made the strong teams score stronger, as they should, and the nations pretending for a strong potential IIHF bid did not keep up in score unless they deserved it. Some scores could now be represented with proportion, rather than just by descending order.

My new rubric for MI (Member Interest): For each IA player, 0.5 points, for each active player 1 point. Bonus points can be awarded for certain circumstances like: Consistent high earners, users that are management roles or very active players (and therefore more likely to submit successful bids if the time comes), or members who consistently make players specifically of that nation, as well as the number of older/historical SHL players from that nation throughout the SHL’s time. I made Inactives worth less of course, because I definitely want to reward nations with strong active cores of site members, but I didn’t crank down the score too much. Even if a brand new user made a 155 TPE player that went IA, it still demonstrates that the player thought out and chose that specific nation for their player. While active nations should (and do) score more in this rubric, I have to keep in mind I’m gauging member interest - which can be independent from the success of said interested members.

Rubric for IHR (Ice Hockey Realism): I took the IIHF World Rankings and inverted them (So 1st place = 54 pts, 2nd place = 53, 3rd place, 52 points, etc.), then divide that number of points by 4 and round down to the whole number to get the score. Cap of 10 points (Most nations that would score higher than 10 are already in the SHL IIHF anyways). Much more empirical than last time, and far less forgiving to nations in division III and especially those with nonexistent hockey programs (who get a score of 0).

Rubric for LVR (Linguistic Variety): This one is kind of subjective, and does still follow my old rubric for lack of a better option. Looking at unique language roots, geographical location and world representation, and a variety in common names score high points here. Ranked 1-20, with a score of 10 being given to most linguistically varied and decreasing 0.5 each time, to a minimum of 0.5. I kept this one ranked, as it’s too subjective to say how much more varied one language is over another. This is more done in comparison to languages represented by already existing SHL IIHF nations, and looking for roots of languages less covered by existing federations.

Part 3: The Scores

Here is the list of 20 top represented nations by players in the SHL, in alphabetical order of the 20 nations observed.

Australia
3 MI Score
4 IHR Score
0.5 LVR Score
7.5 Total Score

Azerbaijan
2 MI Score
0 IHR Score
5 LVR Score
7 Total Score

China
2 MI Score
5 IHR Score
9.5 LVR Score
16.5 Total Score

Denmark
7 MI Score
10 IHR Score
4 LVR Score
21 Total Score

Estonia
2.5 MI Score
7 IHR Score
6 LVR Score
15.5 Total Score

France
8.5 MI Score
10 IHR Score
3.5 LVR Score
22 Total Score

Greece
3 MI Score
0 IHR Score
8 LVR Score
11 Total Score

Hungary
2.5 MI Score
7 IHR Score
6.5 LVR Score
16 Total Score

Iceland
4.5 MI Score
5 IHR Score
4.5 LVR Score
14 Total Score

Italy
10 MI Score
10 IHR Score
7.5 LVR Score
27.5 Total Score

Kazakhstan
1 MI Score
9 IHR Score
2.5 LVR Score
12.5 Total Score

Land of Gumba
2.5 MI Score
0 IHR Score
5.5 LVR Score
8 Total Score

Mexico
4 MI Score
3 IHR Score
10 LVR Score
17 Total Score

Netherlands
5.5 MI Score
6 IHR Score
7 LVR Score
18.5 Total Score

Poland
5 MI Score
7 IHR Score
8.5 LVR Score
20.5 Total Score

Romania
1 MI Score
6 IHR Score
3 LVR Score
10 Total Score

Serbia
1.5 MI Score
6 IHR Score
1.5 LVR Score
9 Total Score

Slovenia
1 MI Score
7 IHR Score
1 LVR Score
9 Total Score

South Korea
1.5 MI Score
8 IHR Score
9 LVR Score
18.5 Total Score

Ukraine
5 MI Score
7 IHR Score
2 LVR Score
14 Total Score

Part 4: Individual Nation Breakdowns, and an example of what a successful bid might score on this scale

So… what does this indicate? While yes, my rubrics are hopefully somewhat useful tools to compare the strength of a nation's expansion bid situation within a vacuum, they only compare to each other right now. Not to mention plenty of these players already are unassigned transfers to other nations, and might not want to repatriate even if a home team emerged in the next few seasons.

My last player, Basil Magnicotta, was one of the original members of the Swiss expansion team in S46, and I wrote an article outlining the initial squad available (just based off of those players available listed as having Switzerland as a birthplace):
https://simulationhockey.com/showthread.php?tid=94216
In that article, I outlined the fact that the Swiss had arguably the STRONGER of the initial repatriation rosters, between Japan and Switzerland. Let's have a look and see how many active/inactive players they had (at the time), and how the S46 repatriation roster would stack up under my rubrics now, so that we can compare our current bids to a winning one from 15 seasons ago. The roster at the time was as such:

Switzerland: (12 players) Charlotta Caspari (IA 145), Matthew Auston (Active S32), Leo Steuri (IA 160), Shaun Stephens (IA 330), Sven Niedderriter (IA 235), Nico Gross (Active S38), Sulak O'Hritea (Active S43), Mathias Seger (Active S46), Basil Magnicotta (Active S46), Timo Vetsch (IA S46), Timo Meier Jr. (IA S46), Seemu Telanne (Active S47).

With 12 players, 6 of which were active, Switzerland scores a flat 9 on the MI score with my rubric, even with no bonuses considered. IHR score at the time for the Swiss program, almost two years ago, would also score at a 10, being one of the highest rated IRL programs not already represented at the SHL level. Linguistic Variety (LVR) is a bit trickier, but by comparison, Switzerland typically offers a variety of Germanic names (covered by Germany and Austria), French names (kind of covered by Canada), Italian, and Rumantsch names (not covered by an existing SHL IIHF squad at the time). I'd place it around a score of 4, compared to others on this list. So, in total, Switzerland's S46 bid would score a 23 on my rubrics here - good to be tied for 2nd on this list comparatively. Japan, while I don't have a complete picture to their repatriation roster before new creates and transfers, roughly would have scored around 7-8 on the MI scale, 5 in IHR at the time, and likely 10 out of 10 for LVR (only east Asian team at all at this point, recognizable and with unique linguistic patterns comparatively), for a score of somewhere in the 22 to 23 range, good for anywhere from tied for 2nd to 3rd plce, compared to the other nations represented in this article here. So given those inferences, a score of at least 20 on this rubric seems to be the number to want to aim for that indicates the infrastructure of a competitive, realistic, and overall acceptable IIHF bid for those responsible for evaluating said bids to consider you. Keep in mind, this has no bearing on the strength or eloquence of the individual users submitting the bid - I imagine a couple of nations could have a better chance than another higher-scoring nation if reputable SHL users submitted stronger sounding bids comparatively. This rubric is only to weigh what the nations have to work with feasibly, but not the strength or will of individual users to push for one country or another.

So, with the bar set at the magic score of 20 to have the groundwork for a top tier bid, let's go through each nation’s score and see where they excelled or fell short this time around.

Australia: MI: 4 IHR: 3 LVR: 1
(4 players) Ric Charlesworth (Active), Doss Williams (IA 155), Ziggy Tambo (IA 350), Bloody Oath (Active S59)

There are Australian creates every now and then, and the Land of Things That Want to Kill You is a low-tempo but consistently popular choice is SHL history. Currently, there are a respectable 4 players from S50 or younger representing Australia. They suffer mostly from an unappealing linguistic variety score, receiving bottom marks as they would compete with many other existing nations for it’s majority of traditionally English-language names (Indigenous Australian names, while not really used yet in the SHL, would definitely be more linguistically unique territory).

Ric Charlesworth and Bloody Oath are really who team Australia lives or dies on, currently. One of the SMJHL’s top scorers, Charlesworth is the lone bit of Thunder from Down Under still updating and active on the forum. Still very young as a S58 and S59 draft class members, it is possible but unlikely that an Australian movement of new players could surge behind Charlesworth and Oath to build a case for an Australian IIHF. As it currently stands, with only one active player the potential for a bid to be put in if/when expansion happens is not likely, given the rules for the last expansion process in S46.

WHAT THEY NEED FOR A SUCCESSFUL BID:
A ton of new active players. Australia is not getting more points in the LVR or IHR scores anytime soon, so they need a force of active users pushing for an Australian team to have a chance in hell for consideration.

Azerbaijan: MI: 2 IHR: 0 LVR: 4
(2 players) Benjamin Blue II (Active S59), Sanzar Molochtovoi (Active S59)

A surprise entry and a newcomer on this list, because since my last installment two users have now emerged from the woodwork as natives of Baku, Azerbaijan. Both are young S59s, and still active, so based off of the S46 expansion rules, Azerbaijan would technically have the opportunity to submit an application for expansion. Overall, having only two total members is a tougher sell, but where the nation loses out the most is not being ranked on the IIHF board, despite having historical roots as an IIHF affiliate. No IRL team means a “0” for IHR score.

WHAT THEY NEED FOR A SUCCESSFUL BID:
Get an IRL hockey team. And to kill all the other viable applicants when bidding starts.

China: MI: 2 IHR: 5 LVR: 9.5
(3 players) Name Redacted (Active), Gart Cheezit (IA 175), Chaoran Shan (IA 155)

China gets great marks for linguistic variety, as well as being a potential geographical rival for Japan in East Asia. Every now and then, a Chinese-created player comes along, but very few stand out over the seasons. Recently, only three players have been made from S50 onward: Chaoran Shan, who never made an update page, Gart Cheezit, technically from Hong Kong and long IA, and possibly the best Chinese player to grace the SHL, Name Redacted. A solid and active goaltender, Redacted can pull a win out of his hat for the Manhattan Rage every now and then, but that same magic won’t allow them to build an IIHF bid on their own. An interesting, but overall unpopular location for an IIHF expansion as of this writing.

WHAT THEY NEED FOR A SUCCESSFUL BID:
Way more active players. Their names may be censored, but they need to show up somewhere in the SHL.

Denmark: MI: 6.5 IHR: 10 LVR: 5
(6 players) Twenty Twenty (IA 200), Jannik Hansen (IA 170), Jonathan Lilehammer (IA 170), Elias Kierkegaard (Active), Mikkel Asmus Sondergard (Active), Frans Eller (Active)

Denmark has a thriving playerbase, with plenty of historical player creations, and currently the S50-or-earlier crop is tied for the 3rd-most players created for a nation without SHL IIHF representation. Split evenly down the middle, Denmark has 3 IAs and 3 very active members of the SHL community, so they got some bonus MI points for those reputable members. Denmark is the highest-ranked IRL IIHF nation to not have an SHL federation (Not including Slovakia, which I left out of this round of evaluating as Czechoslovakia only recently divorced… again). In the S46 expansion, Denmark was on the 6-team shortlist eligible to make applications for, and I believe 1 application was made that time around, so the interest is likely still there. Denmark makes the short list here as well, as given my rubrics, they are one of only 4 nations to score over 20 points. Definitely a strong candidate for a new IIHF team.

WHAT THEY NEED FOR A SUCCESSFUL BID:
Have a better sales pitch than France when the time comes.

Estonia: MI: 2.5 IHR: 7 LVR: 6
(3 players) Marco Barengrub (Active), Lemo Pihl (Active), Kalevolaripaavo Käspertommevisnapuu (IA 650)

Estonia didn’t score too bad with 15.5, considering what I thought they would score when I started digging. During the time of my last article’s publication, only Lemo Pihl was still active, and now he is joined by active S59 rookie Marco Barengrub, currently tearing it up for the Detroit Falcons and making a name for himself ahead of the S59 SHL draft. Even Estonia’s lone IA made it to 650 TPE, which is more than a lot of other nations can say about theirs. If we go off of the rules of the last expansion process, Estonia has the 2 active members required for an application… but, unfortunately, not much more than that. Estonia makes an interesting case for a middle-of-the-pack option, but falls far short of the more heavyweight nations for IIHF consideration.

WHAT THEY NEED FOR A SUCCESSFUL BID:
Once again, more active players. Estonia scores decently on the other categories, it just needs a lot more strong active players.

France: MI: 8.5 IHR: 10 LVR: 4.5
(6 players) Istawp Puques (Active S59), Noel Blanchet (Active S58), Jean-Locke Zidane (Active S58), Luc Blouin (Active S58), Arsene Leclerc (Active S57), Jake Peralta (IA 200)

Linguistic-wise, the only knock against France is that Quebec and French-Canada (as well as Switzerland, in part) in general covers French names pretty handily. But, Canada is a nation that is always quite full, and a France squad could be a realistic and desirable place for any transfers to go. The France S50-to-present class is in a similar spot to Denmark, member wise, with 6 players as well. However, France has a couple of differences to the Danes by comparison. France’s push has been more recent than Denmark for one, with fewer historical creates, but in exchange France has a more active group than Denmark for now. 5 of the 6 players on France are still active, which is remarkable for a larger group, and a majority of them are longtime and/or reputable members of the SHL, multiple of which are in management positions of some kind. In terms of quality over quantity (quantity which France still has!), the French have possibly the most convincing case for expansion at the moment, in regards to users who are likely to submit a strong bid. Similar to Denmark, they are one of 4 nations to score over 20 based on the rubrics used, and are likely to have at least one solid application for the nation, should the expansion process begin soon.

WHAT THEY NEED FOR A SUCCESSFUL BID:
Someone to make a bid when the time comes, really. France arguably has the clear second-best bid. It's a sudden death showdown with Denmark for a second spot, in my opinion.

Greece: MI: 3 IHR: 0 LVR: 8
(2 players) Leon Athanasios (Active), Evangelos Giannopoulos (Active)

Greece currently has two quite young actives, one of which is JSS, so they have that stronger initial foundation going for them. If the S46 IIHF expansion process is followed, they could be on the list to submit a bid with the two young actives, but otherwise there is no additional support for the time being. There have been a couple other Greek players created in past years, but they are few and far between historically. Greece is another country on the list to suffer from not having an IRL IIHF nation ranking. When Malaysia has a recognized affiliate program and you don’t, something has gone horribly wrong. Linguistically speaking, Greece gets higher marks for having a recognizable and untapped naming structure, but until the member interest balloons beyond the current solid duo, I don’t foresee Greece having an acceptable bid by comparison.

WHAT THEY NEED FOR A SUCCESSFUL BID:
Get more people buying in to making Greek players. Gotta recruit more members, JSS.

Hungary: MI: 2.5 IHR: 8 LVR: 6.5
(2 players) Aron Nemeth (IA 155), Axel Meszaros (Active)

Hungary has been an intriguing nation both historically in the SHL and recently in the IRL IIHF. Even with some of the players going IA, it’s actually been quite some time since there weren’t at least two Hungarians in the SHL or SMJHL available. Kind of like the Sith - as soon as one goes IA for too long or retires, usually another is created to balance it out back to two. Currently, unless someone creates a Hungarian soon, Nemeth will pass out of the “young’ range and Axel Meszaros, while a GM and very active member, is retiring as expansion approaches, and did not recreate as a Hungarian. Linguistically Hungarian can be some fun, even if it is another Pan-Slavic language added to the mix. Hungary IRL has been slowly improving their hockey program, and even started qualifying for the top division at some junior levels. While there isn’t any top Hungarian talent at the NHL level, the program as a whole has been producing respectable quality players as of late. Hungary at the SHL level also holds the esteem of being one of the shortlisted teams that was permitted to apply for expansion around S46, as it once again had exactly 2 active members at the time. Currently, unless there is a surge in created players that breaks the apparent self-imposed Rule of Two, Hungary will be on the outside looking in once again when IIHF expansion rolls around.

WHAT THEY NEED FOR A SUCCESSFUL BID:
To have more than two players at a time would be a good start.

Iceland: MI: 4.5 IHR: 5 LVR: 5
(4 players) Sekai Wollker (Active), Xavier Doom (Active), Haldor Ragnarsson (IA 190), Gudmundur Kristjianssen (Active)

Since my last article was published, Iceland has received a boost in the form of another active young player: Sekai Wollker. Combined with an already impressive user list in regards to the still-active Icelanders, the MI score has certainly received a boon overall, and Iceland would certainly qualify to submit a bid, were the S46 expansion rules followed again. Linguistically they are solid, if not close to being another similar Scandanavian option, but the small drawback is ice hockey realism. Iceland thematically lends itself to hockey, but scores low for being a consistent division III or division IIB competitor in IIHF competitions. The core of Iceland is still young, with the “oldest” on this list being the S55 Kristjianssen. Should IIHF expansion come, if Iceland can get a couple more creates on board, they could have a chance at a very legitimate bid should the expansion come around soon.

WHAT THEY NEED FOR A SUCCESSFUL BID:
Honestly, Iceland loses out on a few points IHR and LVr wise, but with the active and reputable core they have now, they just need a couple more active players to put forward a surprisingly solid bid.

Italy: MI: 10 IHR: 10 LVR: 7.5
(11 players) Gio Marsh (Active) Sonata Diamante (IA 325), Pablo Salvatici (Active), Anna Pontecorvo (IA 290), Tanjiro Kamado (Active), Alfonso Fettuccine (IA 160), Domenic Alessandrini (IA 220), Niccolo Livius (Active), Dario Medici (IA 250), Luca Del Vecchio (Active), White Goodman (Active)

Out of nations that do not have IIHF representation currently in the SHL, no country has had more players, historically or presently, from anywhere compared to Italy. They were a top candidate for the S46 expansion, and while I can’t speak for those who made the decisions, Italy had bids submitted, and was likely the 3rd place choice behind the awarded bids of Switzerland and Japan. The Italian nation received the maximum marks for MI due to their large S50-or-newer class, a couple of super-active and reputable members, and some bonus points for always consistently being a popular pick for birth country throughout the SHL’s history. If I were nitpicking, I would express some concern that there have not been any new Italians added since my last article - aside from new S60 create Gio Marsh, the S57’s are still the newest, and the bulk of this group of 10 is from a large S51 class, so a bit older than other nation’s cores, not to mention half of the players mentioned are now inactive. However, let’s say Italy was hypothetically awarded an IIHF slot today, and with ZERO transfers/recreates by interested members, here’s what a potential IIHF team could look like on paper:

Forwards:
Pontecorvo - Salvatici - Livius
Alessandrini - Diamante - Medici
??? - Marsh - Fettuccine
Defense:
Kamado - ???
??? - ???
??? - ???
Goalies:
Luca Del Vecchio
White Goodman

While defense leaves a lot to be desired, Italy already has most of a forward core to tide them over until more active players transfer in/are created, and they have a killer goalie duo off the bat! This theoretical lineup doesn’t even include Italian players older than S50 who are still around, and who could add to the mix for the short term. Speaking as someone who was part of the repatriation draft for the S46 expansion, this is a damn shake better than the start Switzerland had at the time to start off with. With the new rubrics I’ve used, Italy is the third of 4 nations so far to score over 20 points, and with a 27.5, they are the highest scoring nation, with a sizable 4.5 point difference ahead of 2nd-place. If the IIHF is expanding soon, I really can’t see a situation at this point where one of the two teams isn’t Italy, as long as they have someone willing to head up the federation and submit a good bid.

WHAT THEY NEED FOR A SUCCESSFUL BID:
Shit, man, they just need someone to step up. Italy has everything they need, they just have to place a pitch that shows off what they've got.

Kazakhstan: MI: 1 IHR: 9 LVR: 3
(1 player) Samat Beibitzhanov (Active)

There have been a couple of Kazakh players in the SHL over its entire history, but it really only boils down to Beibitzhanov at this point. While active and passionate for the nation, the Inferno goalie can’t hold it up on their own. Linguistically Kazakh offers some variety, and Kazakhstan shines as a very strong choice in the IHR department, being one of the top hockey nations not already being represented at the SHL IIHF level, but where it continues to struggle is member interest, and until a lot more active players start building a program, Kazakhstan will once again not even be considered for the application stage of a potential expansion.

WHAT THEY NEED FOR A SUCCESSFUL BID:
This is getting repetitive, but there needs to be more than one player from country to make a proper bid, if we're going with the old rules.

Mexico: MI: 4 IHR: 3 LVR: 10
(4 Players) Tres Sombreros (Active), Junior Guarda (IA 250), Juan Fernandez (IA 190) Elijah Jones (Active)

I gave Mexico top marks for linguistic variety, as the only nation that typically represents any Spanish-speakers in the SHL is the United States, and they don’t have a lot of room for new players. Having Mexico as a nation would give a place for any Spanish/Central American//South American player a more realistic option to transfer to, as there are younger lone wolf players from countries like Spain, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, and more currently in the SHL. Mexico constantly has players in the SHL or SMJHL at any given time, albeit never in large amounts, but have been quietly consistent as a nation. Bonus points for Mexico being one of the few non-IIHF SHL nations to have a current and active 2k earner in Elijah Jones (I’m cheating a bit here as Jones is a S49 player though). As a hockey nation, Mexico is near the bottom of the pack, also languishing in division III or at its peak, Division IIB. Some intangibles are there for Mexico, and they currently have 2 active members if the expansion bidding process is the same as last time, but otherwise Mexico does not have enough active players to compete with other nation’s potential bids, as well as being a far-lower ranked hockey nation.

WHAT THEY NEED FOR A SUCCESSFUL BID:
Make it out of Division III IRL, but more likely would be galvanizing all the Latin American nations to push for one of them to represent the under-represented region at the IIHF level.

Netherlands: MI: 5.5 IHR: 6 LVR: 7
(5 players) Cale Amundsen (Active), Erben Kasius (Active), Danny White (IA 260), Izzy Dudemeister (IA 180), Mitchell van der Heijden (Active)

Since my last article, the Oranje have held strong, but not added to their current number of players. They still have league-leader Martijn Westbroek, but as a S46 he is omitted from the official numbers, only lending a hand in the bonus points section, as the Dutch have a good handful of active and reputable users creating players from the Netherlands. Linguistic variety is very solid but isn’t world-beating, as the SHL has plenty of Western European teams, and IHR suffers a little bit as currently the Netherlands are around division IIA, but the active and engaged userbase and historical consistency of Dutch player creations gives the Netherlands a higher score - but just shy of the 20-point threshold with 18.5, the closest scoring nation to the 20-pont mark that doesn’t quite reach it. A respectable 5th place, but unless a couple more players create as Dutchmen, I see them competing with - but not beating - the heavy hitters in this article if there were to be competitive bidding.

WHAT THEY NEED FOR A SUCCESSFUL BID:
They have a more than competitive foundation for a bid already, but to put them in elite territory they would need two or three more active players to round out an already good group of users.

Poland: MI: 5 IHR: 7 LVR: 8.5
(10 players) Tyler Avery (IA 160), Etan Merauk (IA 200), 6 of the Franciseks (Max 250, all IA), Casimir Blaszczyk (IA 160), Zbigniew Pokrywka (IA 370)

Ah, Poland, one of the more interesting cases in regards to the SHL IIHF. Poland is solely in 2nd place for the number of S50-to-present players, with 10 player creates, but zero of them are active as of this writing. Yep, that is listed correctly… zero. In fact, Zbignew Pokrywka was the highest earner in this group of 10 players with a grand total of around 370 TPE - a decent SMJHL player at best. The six Franciszek brothers of S52 boost the overall numbers a fair bit (the highest earning of which made it to only 250 TPE), but even if for some reason I completely excluded them from consideration, 5 players is still more than many other nations on this list can offer. The problem is simply that none of them stayed active, and none are from the most recent 4 SMJHL draft classes, so the MI score suffers big losses there. Poland has always historically been a rather popular choice (they had at least one expansion bid submitted in S46, as they qualified for the shortlist), and I think the interest in unique Polish names has something to do with it, and I have Poland highly rated in linguistic variety due to this recognizable naming nomenclature. IHR score wise, Poland is middle of the pack, as it has a successful hockey program and in the 90’s-200’s produced some NHL talent, but otherwise falls behind the presently larger hockey nations like France, Kazakhstan, Italy, and Denmark. Overall, people in the SHL like creating Poles, and they score high enough on everything else in my rubrics - they barely squeak to 20.5, and are the fourth and final country to score above 20 in my rankings. The nation seems to have everything on paper, but the one thing they NEED before Poland would be considered for IIHF expansion is a core of dedicated, active players, like France, Denmark, or the Netherlands. As it stands, while Poland has great appeal, they don’t even have one current active player within my 10 season scope, let alone the two required for a bid to be permitted. If in the next few seasons they should have a couple of high-profile recreates, I think there is enough attention consistently given to the nation by the player base to warrant a serious look.

WHAT THEY NEED FOR A SUCCESSFUL BID:
A couple of high-profile users to make Polish players. Poland has all the boxes checked, and players keep creating Poles at a rate higher than any other non-IIHF country other than Italy. Someone with a strong will just has to harness that interest.

Romania: MI: 1 IHR: 6 LVR: 3.5
(1 player) Nicolae Antonescu (Active)

Romania is more table filler to reach 20 teams than anything, and is one of only a couple of nations here to have only one player representing the nation at all. This one is myself, Nicolae Antonescu, the only current Romanian-born player in the SHL at all, for the time being. Historically, I was not the first Romanian, surprisingly in my research the only other Romanian was also a goalie, a 155 TPE IA from S41, Vasil Cosmescu. They got the linguistic authenticity right, full marks for that. Romania got mediocre points from linguistic variety, slightly better mediocre points from IHR score, and a weak score from having only one member as a Romanian - me. IIHF fed head is an intriguing job, one I'd be interested in, but at this rate if we were using the same rules as before for bidding, I would have to throw my hat in with another available country to have a bid before I would be seriously considered with Romania. Any of you interested in vampires, great gymnasts, or oppressive communist regimes? Or having names that end in -escu? Hit me up.

WHAT THEY NEED FOR A SUCCESSFUL BID:
I'd better start campaigning for more people to create Romanians, shouldn't I?

Serbia: MI: 1.5 IHR: 6 LVR: 2
(2 players) Chimkin Wing (Active), Stracamir Petrovic (IA 400)

Currently hosting the only player in SHL history to have accepted the position switch option from goalie to skater, Chimkin Tendy (Now Chimkin Wing) currently carries the flag for Serbia. An additional IA at 400 TPE gives Serbia a slight MI score edge over other nations with just 1 active member, and Serbia, while no great shakes internationally, at least has a hockey program IRL. Linguistically, Serbia falls into the unique-opportunities-but-Pan-Slavic pool that many other nations and SHL IIHF candidates have to offer, so overall Serbia has a middling-to-low score, and needs quite a few more solid actives to be anywhere near expansion consideration.

WHAT THEY NEED FOR A SUCCESSFUL BID:
A damn lot more than what they've got.

Slovenia: MI: 1 IHR: 7 LVR: 1.5
(1 player) Jst Maro (Active)

I wanted to fill out the table to an even number, so Slovenia makes the list more to fill out 20 teams than anything, and also makes the cut over other one-trick-wonders for having more intangibles than the other 1-active-player nation options that were left off of this list. For starters, Slovenia has had a couple of other players historically in the SHL, even if the young crowd is solely Jst Maro right now. Plus, Slovenia as a nation has produced a couple of NHLers, and scores a little bit higher than most options for IHR score. Up until recently, Slovenia consistently made the top division in IIHF play, but today is found more comfortably in Division 1A or 1B. Some intangibles are there, but Slovenia for now is just table filler without more current players in the SHL.

WHAT THEY NEED FOR A SUCCESSFUL BID:
More players, and the team getting back into the IRL championship division wouldn't hurt awareness either.

South/North Korea: MI: 1.5 IHR: 8 LVR: 9
(1 player) Ryan Daley (IA 155), HM the Smebs (S46 mostly)

Okay, so while I shouldn’t lump the Koreas together, I thought I might as well because someone makes a North Korean every now and then. After looking around, I found that there was only 1 North Korean player in the last few seasons, and he never made an update page. What even gets Korea on the board for this piece are the South Korean historical players, as there are still current SHL players (and some active) that while older, are still waving the South Korean flag high. Like the Franciszek brothers, the Smebs were a set of siblings that popped up in the monstrous S46 draft class, and were multiple users creating as brothers, only from South Korea instead of Poland. However, unlike the Franciszeks, the Smebs actually updated into being SHL caliber players (for the most part), with players like Daniel and Parker Smeb still being top SHL players at the moment, and the IA corpses of some solid players like Chico Smeb still being dragged around by SHL clubs. South Korea also has good linguistic variety, could be a great option as an East Asian rival to Japan, and scores higher than you might expect on IHR score. The South Korean hockey teams have been steadily improving over the last decade, and are now only shy of getting into the championship divisions of IIHF play. The intangibles are there, but we’ll need a new wave of Smebs (and likely others) to create for South Korea before a core would be young enough to truly warrant expansion consideration.

WHAT THEY NEED FOR A SUCCESSFUL BID:
The Smebs to all recreate with friends, and make a bid this time.

Ukraine: MI: 5 IHR: 7 LVR: 2.5
(5) Jasper Maximov (Active), Alexander Kazur II (IA 180), Mats Marner (Active), Ruslan Zaphrophets (Active), Danila Zhernov (IA 480)

In my last article, I was surprised to see Ukraine score as high as they did, and were a solid middle-of-the-pack option. As of this article, not a terrible amount has changed, with the same 5 players being considered. The three that were active before are still going strong, and earn Ukraine some bonus MI points because all three are very active participants in the SHL. Ukraine as an IRL nation boasts a solid hockey team with a good history of being competitive, although recently having fallen on harder times in international competition. Linguistic variety takes a slight knock as Pan-slavic nations are largely covered, despite some unique language options compared to say, Russian. Ukraine holds strong as an okay option, but otherwise is still an outside-looking-in bid option overall.

WHAT THEY NEED FOR A SUCCESSFUL BID:
For Italy, France, Denmark, the Netherlands, and possibly Iceland to not submit bids.

Land of Gumba: MI: 2.5 IHR: 0 LVR: 5.5
(3 players) Ambacas Cuddles (Active S53), Mohammad Cuddles (IA 165), Monsieur Pingy Pingu Lunga Gumba, Esq. (Active)

I left this one for last largely for the silliness of the idea, but giving credit where credit is due, there is a unique opportunity presented with this nation. Historically, the Land of Gumba has been known to SHLers well before Cuddles was conceived, although Ambacas is certainly the most successful player to emerge from there. Back in S46, user Pingy Pingu made the infamous Lunga Gumba, the skater who hailed from the Land of Gumba and was known for having such a strong shot it could punch through a goalie. He didn't have much else in his toolkit, but the location became enough of a meme that it is sometimes referenced by league members, and was the inside joke behind the Cuddles Brothers for their creation in S53. (Yes, there were two Cuddles brothers!) In addition, as I was writing this article, PingyPingu made his triumphant return to the site wit another Gumbian, adding to the potential! An interesting opportunity presents itself here - a nation not represented in the IRL universe, but that does in the SHL one. Users interested in developing the lore of the people and places of the Land of Gumba can go wild, and branch out in an infinite number of directions historically and linguistically (which is why I put Gumba smack dab in the middle of the LVR rankings). Obviously, the fictional nation scores no points in the IHR score for, well, being a fictional nation. But with a lack of reality comes opportunity, as I say. While quite possibly the most unique option the SHL could take here, having only one current user on the fantasy nation makes it a far and away an un-realistic choice for SHL expansion.

WHAT THEY NEED FOR A SUCCESSFUL BID:
Becoming a real country would be great! Otherwise, a solid group of the more insane members of the league need to take this one and run with it, expanding the geography and history of the Land of Gumba, allowing a large enough cult following for there to be proper blood sacrifices to achieve a successful IIHF bid.

Part 5: The Wrap-up

I suppose this is the part where I give predictions, or finally get around to my main point - Is there enough site activity to justify an expansion? And if there is, which nations are likely going to be added? Remember, if you think a certain nation deserves an IIHF spot, "build it, and they will come". Switzerland and Japan has healthy creation numbers without the promise of an IIHF team, so if you want to see a specific country represented, make your next player from there!

In my opinion, if Expansion were held today, I think Italy would be a lock, as long as someone stepped up for Fed Head. After that, it's a battle between France and Denmark, with a good dark horse in the Netherlands for that second spot. It will be interesting to see how the demographics continue to shift in the future, and unless an expansion actually occurs, I'll keep track of the interest and keep making these articles!

Thanks for reading!

Thank you to Ham and Sulo for the sigs!

Fitted2106 · 04-17-2021, 10:06 PM

TEAM NEWFINLAND

hhh81 · 04-17-2021, 10:39 PM

TEAM PAN AFRICA OR BUST

*Zoone16* · 04-17-2021, 10:53 PM

ITALIA! ITALIA! ITALIA!

trella · 04-18-2021, 12:29 AM

WE WANT LAND OF GUMBA!!!!!

THE GUMBIAN PEOPLE ARE BEING OPPRESSED

Thanks to @karey and @JSS for the sigs!

Former USA Fed Head, Carolina Kraken Co-GM, Tampa Bay Barracuda GM

Duff101 · 04-18-2021, 01:11 AM

Create Kazakh players please

Credit to Geck, Ragnar and Juni for sigs

Rotti · 04-18-2021, 02:27 AM

I would just like to say Canada is not really overflowing. I'd say 75% of our 126 players have 200> TPE.

Henrik · 04-18-2021, 03:52 AM

Great read!

SecondSucks22 · 04-18-2021, 09:32 AM

04-18-2021, 02:27 AMRotticusScott Wrote: I would just like to say Canada is not really overflowing. I'd say 75% of our 126 players have 200> TPE.

And a good chunk of those sub 200's are new and will probably transfer out after teams "totally dont tamper" and tell them they wont have a spot on canadas roster, even if it isnt true

***artermis*** · 04-18-2021, 10:04 AM

Another great article on the subject.

I was going to make several references or clarifications on the process from last expansion, but it's clear you've done your research!

Judging by the nations that made the shortlist last time, it seems like 20 is indeed the score to aim for, just as you mentioned. Also you are very correct in the assumption that the bids themselves came into play, as that final list of nations was decided mostly from the application itself.

Going through the PMs, I can't find an app for Italy, but it could've been through another channel I suppose. They have always had demand to return to international play, and I'm sure they had a bunch of players back then as well though, but I don't think they were our third choice. IIRC, the third place bid was Poland.

We made up a bunch of the rules for the expansion on the fly, since it's the first team change that has happened since the IIHF was founded in S19, so I'm curious to see what the next expansion will look like; if they take what we did and build on it, or if they change the approach.

trella · 04-18-2021, 11:45 AM

04-18-2021, 09:32 AMSecondSucks22 Wrote:
04-18-2021, 02:27 AMRotticusScott Wrote: I would just like to say Canada is not really overflowing. I'd say 75% of our 126 players have 200> TPE.
And a good chunk of those sub 200's are new and will probably transfer out after teams "totally dont tamper" and tell them they wont have a spot on canadas roster, even if it isnt true

This x1000000. I had the exact same experience when I was USA head. Not fun.

Thanks to @karey and @JSS for the sigs!

Former USA Fed Head, Carolina Kraken Co-GM, Tampa Bay Barracuda GM

SecondSucks22 · 04-18-2021, 11:56 AM

04-18-2021, 11:45 AMtrella Wrote:
04-18-2021, 09:32 AMSecondSucks22 Wrote: And a good chunk of those sub 200's are new and will probably transfer out after teams "totally dont tamper" and tell them they wont have a spot on canadas roster, even if it isnt true
This x1000000. I had the exact same experience when I was USA head. Not fun.

Exactly. Its one thing to say "these teams have so many players" but when you dont consider that 1) a good number of those players are IA, or nearly IA, and dont care about IIHF, and 2) that especially in regards to Canada and the US, we tend to reach the max transfer out every season, while quite often not transferring anyone in.

trella · 04-18-2021, 12:35 PM

04-18-2021, 11:56 AMSecondSucks22 Wrote:
04-18-2021, 11:45 AMtrella Wrote: This x1000000. I had the exact same experience when I was USA head. Not fun.
Exactly. Its one thing to say "these teams have so many players" but when you dont consider that 1) a good number of those players are IA, or nearly IA, and dont care about IIHF, and 2) that especially in regards to Canada and the US, we tend to reach the max transfer out every season, while quite often not transferring anyone in.

Yeah. I lost so many dmen that would have made the team in 2-3 seasons but they’re just told they will never make the team and leave. Even if I talk to them about it. It blows

Thanks to @karey and @JSS for the sigs!

Former USA Fed Head, Carolina Kraken Co-GM, Tampa Bay Barracuda GM

Duff101 · 04-18-2021, 04:33 PM

04-17-2021, 08:44 PMRancidbudgie Wrote: Kazakhstan: MI: 1 IHR: 9 LVR: 3
(1 player) Samat Beibitzhanov (Active)

There have been a couple of Kazakh players in the SHL over its entire history, but it really only boils down to Beibitzhanov at this point. While active and passionate for the nation, the Inferno goalie can’t hold it up on their own. Linguistically Kazakh offers some variety, and Kazakhstan shines as a very strong choice in the IHR department, being one of the top hockey nations not already being represented at the SHL IIHF level, but where it continues to struggle is member interest, and until a lot more active players start building a program, Kazakhstan will once again not even be considered for the application stage of a potential expansion.

WHAT THEY NEED FOR A SUCCESSFUL BID:
This is getting repetitive, but there needs to be more than one player from country to make a proper bid, if we're going with the old rules.

That sounds like a challenge

Credit to Geck, Ragnar and Juni for sigs

PremierBromanov · 04-18-2021, 05:19 PM

damn i wish i could read

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