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A quick gripe about regression
#1

A quick gripe


While this isn’t something I think is very essential to change I do think it is something people will find to be beneficial to the league. I have two primary thoughts on what exactly I’d like to see change and both of them deal with player regression. The first point I have is that we should set a threshold on when players are forced to retire. Furthermore, I believe it would be beneficial to make the regression percentages slightly higher. 


To my first point I think that the league has a handful of players who are well past their expiration date. The greatest offender is on my own team in MTL as they have apparently been playing in the league since S45. Assuming that player joined at the age of 18 that would make him around 52 years old this season. This would make said player tied with “Mr. Hockey” Gordie Howe, of the NHL, as one of the oldest players to ever play at the top level of competition. I do believe that all players have the right to a very lengthy career and that we should encourage users to play out their careers to the maximum extent. That being said I think it would be of benefit to the league to look into automatically retiring players after their 25th season. The NHL player with the longest tenure lasted a whole 26 seasons and that is one hell of a career. If someone wants to argue that 26 or 27 seasons need to be the threshold I do not mind but any player playing after 30 seasons in the league needs to hang up their skates. I think this will better the lifecycle of players as we have seen the league swell in players and some more early call ups could benefit in the activity sense as the Juniors had to expand in order to compensate for the sheer number of players within it. While I understand hockey players have significantly longer careers than football players (a lot of my sim experience comes from the ISFL where the average career is around 11-12 seasons) I still think that the league leadership should consider the possibility of taking action to retire players who are “well past due”


On my second issue I would argue that the current regression scale plays into my first issue to a significant amount and is worth bringing to light. The current regression scale is as follows: 


Season 10 - 9% TPE loss
Season 11 - 12% TPE loss
Season 12 - 15% TPE loss
Season 13 - 15% TPE loss
Season 14 - 15% TPE loss
Season 15 - 18% TPE loss
Season 16 - 20% TPE loss
Season 17 - 22% TPE loss
Season 18 - 22% TPE loss
Season 19 - 25% TPE loss
Season 20 - 25% TPE loss
Season 21 - 25% TPE loss
Season 22 - 25% TPE loss
Season 23 and later 30% TPE loss


I do not think that the scale needs to ramp up at the beginning of a player’s career. There is a slight decline in play but that can be overcome with active training and seasonal practice which is well simulated within the league. Now once a player reaches their twilight years we tend to see a significant drop off in physical play and overall athletic ability. The many years of a long career can have a significant impact on a player’s well being over time and I think we should take measures to better reflect the real life impact when playing hockey. I would say that the league should begin to reflect a slightly more aggressive scale once the player enters their 14th season. My basis for this is assuming that the player at the earliest makes it to the SHL at the age of 18 and after 14 seasons in the league you would see the player about 32 years old. While many debate the specific age, players tend to reach their “prime” around the age of 28 or 29. Representing that players hit some more obstacles 3 years after their prime would be more accurate to real life in my opinion. While there have been more and more players playing over the age of 40, and some having a renaissance year or two, we do tend to see significant decline and I believe that we should also look into aggressively increasing regression in the later years. This goes to the idea that the league should be fluid with the balance of active players and finding roster slots for them. 


Many of you may be wondering, “So AJ, you’ve gone on this miniature tirade about what is wrong with the league you are barely active in, now what in the hell do you recommend we do?” Well engaged Mr/Mrs reader, I love your active thinking and have decided to draft (albeit a very rough draft) what I believe a better regression system would look like and when we should see players be forced to retire.


The AJ system of regression: 


Season 10 - 9% TPE loss
Season 11 - 12% TPE loss
Season 12 - 15% TPE loss
Season 13 - 15% TPE loss
Season 14 - 20% TPE loss
Season 15 - 22% TPE loss
Season 16 - 24% TPE loss
Season 17 - 26% TPE loss
Season 18 - 28% TPE loss
Season 19 - 30% TPE loss
Season 20 - 32% TPE loss
Season 21 - 35% TPE loss
Season 22 - 40% TPE loss
Season 23 and later 50% TPE loss
Season 26: Automatically Retired
Yes, I am coming from the outside looking in as someone who is not super active in this league. Yet, I do understand the hockey world and love the group simulation sports has brought together. I am truly of the belief that these changes would be beneficial to the league and that we will see a few small changes that can lead to larger positive long-term benefits for the SHL. Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments and rip me apart if I am so far off the current standing of the league. 
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#2

The realism aspects steps a bit away from the ideal curve of the player life cycle. On average an NHL player peaks between (23-26) so 5-8 years post draft. The average career length of the top-25% or so of NHL players is about 12 years. Players usually peak between the afore mentioned time, have a gradual decline to 30 then as a general (30 being 12 seasons post draft). The majority of SHL players spend 3 seasons post draft in the SMJHL, with exceptions to this rule. So on average regression should be moderately light until the 15th season then hit like a mack truck using the available data I could find.

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#3

It's not about making a sim that mimics real life. We are trying to take something that exists and put it in a format where you can just type a few things every couple days and still have enjoyment.

So many things here are unrealistic. One thing right off the bat is injuries being off. How are these players able to play for 20 seasons without missing a game? I'd say same plot armor that keeps them playing for so long

Although I absolutely appreciate people who get convos going like this so we don't fall into complacency

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#4

While I respect and am invested in the ongoing conversations around how the league operates its regression and retirement of players, I'm hard pressed to see why the league should change from the current system. As it is currently, the SHL is a player-driven league, the backbone of engagement and survival for the site is users getting the most enjoyment out of a player.

You're in the Montreal Organization, I know for a fact that you're referring to Slip McScruff when you bring up users who have had active players for very long periods of time, and yes, Scrufdaddy has been around for a long while, but your argument fails to reference two critical pieces to the SHL puzzle.

For one, the system already makes it difficult to keep players active and effective for long stretches of time. If Scrufdaddy was all about stats and having the best player activer for as long as he could manage, then I have no doubt Slip would have been retired. The thing is, as long as Scruf is committed to Slip, he can remain active, he can stay engaged, he can keep his player in the running for long stretches of time, and yeah, it can be awkward and unwieldy, but it's about what you enjoy. Engagement comes in many forms, users find what is working for them, and they're entitled to stick to it. The league doesn't make it easy for anyone, but it strikes a good balance in keeping players aging naturally. Reasonably, someone could find a way to get a very effective player through extreme TPE gain, through recruitment, fantasy, and other avenues. It's all about what's comfortable for the user.

But that's half the formula. The other is Montreal. CampinKiller and Ben are working their way out of a deep rebuild right now, as a team does through the natural ebb and flow of the league. It's in their best interest during a rebuild to sign players with lower TPE ceilings to remain competitive, yet behind other, stronger teams in their conference. They are within their ability to do this, there aren't any rules that prohibit it, and it's good that the league doesn't. It's the decision of the GMs - your GMs, in this case - to sign players like Slip, for filling out their roster. There is a good reason for this, primarily to avoid rushing players to the SHL level, having them miss out on Rookie Of The Year award possibility, and giving them tougher stats to start their careers is very discouraging. On the other side of the coin, GMs are sentimental, they like stories, and having a player that has been around since the STHS era is a great narrative. GMs have their reasons to keep aging players around, through loyalty, through friendship. It's all allowed, it's all something the SHL won't dare try and abolish through rule changes, since it's part of the carefully-cultivated culture of the community.

Regression needs a look at every few years just to see if something isn't working, yes. But the ownness for those changes is never because a user really, really likes to keep a player active. They have the right to do so, and the teams have the right to keep signing them. Montreal isn't alone in this practice. We as recently as S72 remained committed to keeping SpartanGibbles' player Collin Gibbles in the lineup, when we had prospects who could come up. Collin wasn't a particularly notable player, beyond holding four Monarchs franchise records and the league record for lowest collective career +/- rating, but Gibbles is a former GM, and a great person, a locker room impact person. He chose when to retire, because we were not going to send him somewhere else simply because his player was starting to wane in terms of effectiveness. Again, we GMs love a good narrative.

I'm sure, as a new user, your feelings will change, or they won't, and that's valid, I won't challenge you on that. The biggest X-factor in the story of regression is the human element, what we're willing to do in the face of those rules, the decisions we make, the determination we have, and beyond that, we decide when to push that button and start over, because having it done for us just wouldn't be fulfilling to some people.



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#5

I think if you donate you should be immortal and never regress.


I'm also not in charge for these reasons.



Although a charity auction item of no regression / regress another player would be fun....

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#6

09-05-2024, 07:33 PMTroy_McClure03 Wrote: I think if you donate you should be immortal and never regress. 


I'm also not in charge for these reasons. 



Although a charity auction item of no regression / regress another player would be fun....
that's kind of sadistic


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#7

09-05-2024, 10:54 PMskyrrhawk Wrote: that's kind of sadistic

65 dollars

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#8

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#9

Where were you when people forgot about Cleo Green? @Esso2264

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#10

As someone who fought regression for a 25 season SHL career, it's not a path many would take. You see a lot less of a return in effort just to maintain tpe as a player before the final tiers even hit. If we had a glut of people still playing at the final regression tier then maybe it would be a problem, but it's more that a few outliers like myself felt like going the distance and seeing how long we could stretch a career. Personally I went for as long as my player could before being replaced on Minny but could have likely bumped around to other teams if I really wanted to. For some it's chasing a story or record, but to make a player last that long is a 4-5 year commitment.

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#11

09-13-2024, 02:07 PMSpartanGibbles Wrote: As someone who fought regression for a 25 season SHL career, it's not a path many would take. You see a lot less of a return in effort just to maintain tpe as a player before the final tiers even hit. If we had a glut of people still playing at the final regression tier then maybe it would be a problem, but it's more that a few outliers like myself felt like going the distance and seeing how long we could stretch a career. Personally I went for as long as my player could before being replaced on Minny but could have likely bumped around to other teams if I really wanted to. For some it's chasing a story or record, but to make a player last that long is a 4-5 year commitment.

I agree with all of the above and to be honest there aren't many people that would even attempt that more than once. Just imagine to spend anywhere from 8-10 IRL years with just two players.

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#12
(This post was last modified: 09-13-2024, 04:47 PM by trella. Edited 1 time in total.)

I might sympathize with your gripe if I could read it. Unfortunately you set the font to black which makes this unreadable on dark mode

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#13

09-13-2024, 04:26 PMtrella Wrote: I might sympathize with your gripe if I could read it. Unfortunately you set the font to black which makes this unreadable on dark mode
 

I got you bro



A quick gripe


While this isn’t something I think is very essential to change I do think it is something people will find to be beneficial to the league. I have two primary thoughts on what exactly I’d like to see change and both of them deal with player regression. The first point I have is that we should set a threshold on when players are forced to retire. Furthermore, I believe it would be beneficial to make the regression percentages slightly higher. 


To my first point I think that the league has a handful of players who are well past their expiration date. The greatest offender is on my own team in MTL as they have apparently been playing in the league since S45. Assuming that player joined at the age of 18 that would make him around 52 years old this season. This would make said player tied with “Mr. Hockey” Gordie Howe, of the NHL, as one of the oldest players to ever play at the top level of competition. I do believe that all players have the right to a very lengthy career and that we should encourage users to play out their careers to the maximum extent. That being said I think it would be of benefit to the league to look into automatically retiring players after their 25th season. The NHL player with the longest tenure lasted a whole 26 seasons and that is one hell of a career. If someone wants to argue that 26 or 27 seasons need to be the threshold I do not mind but any player playing after 30 seasons in the league needs to hang up their skates. I think this will better the lifecycle of players as we have seen the league swell in players and some more early call ups could benefit in the activity sense as the Juniors had to expand in order to compensate for the sheer number of players within it. While I understand hockey players have significantly longer careers than football players (a lot of my sim experience comes from the ISFL where the average career is around 11-12 seasons) I still think that the league leadership should consider the possibility of taking action to retire players who are “well past due”


On my second issue I would argue that the current regression scale plays into my first issue to a significant amount and is worth bringing to light. The current regression scale is as follows: 


Season 10 - 9% TPE loss
Season 11 - 12% TPE loss
Season 12 - 15% TPE loss
Season 13 - 15% TPE loss
Season 14 - 15% TPE loss
Season 15 - 18% TPE loss
Season 16 - 20% TPE loss
Season 17 - 22% TPE loss
Season 18 - 22% TPE loss
Season 19 - 25% TPE loss
Season 20 - 25% TPE loss
Season 21 - 25% TPE loss
Season 22 - 25% TPE loss
Season 23 and later 30% TPE loss


I do not think that the scale needs to ramp up at the beginning of a player’s career. There is a slight decline in play but that can be overcome with active training and seasonal practice which is well simulated within the league. Now once a player reaches their twilight years we tend to see a significant drop off in physical play and overall athletic ability. The many years of a long career can have a significant impact on a player’s well being over time and I think we should take measures to better reflect the real life impact when playing hockey. I would say that the league should begin to reflect a slightly more aggressive scale once the player enters their 14th season. My basis for this is assuming that the player at the earliest makes it to the SHL at the age of 18 and after 14 seasons in the league you would see the player about 32 years old. While many debate the specific age, players tend to reach their “prime” around the age of 28 or 29. Representing that players hit some more obstacles 3 years after their prime would be more accurate to real life in my opinion. While there have been more and more players playing over the age of 40, and some having a renaissance year or two, we do tend to see significant decline and I believe that we should also look into aggressively increasing regression in the later years. This goes to the idea that the league should be fluid with the balance of active players and finding roster slots for them. 


Many of you may be wondering, “So AJ, you’ve gone on this miniature tirade about what is wrong with the league you are barely active in, now what in the hell do you recommend we do?” Well engaged Mr/Mrs reader, I love your active thinking and have decided to draft (albeit a very rough draft) what I believe a better regression system would look like and when we should see players be forced to retire.


The AJ system of regression: 


Season 10 - 9% TPE loss
Season 11 - 12% TPE loss
Season 12 - 15% TPE loss
Season 13 - 15% TPE loss
Season 14 - 20% TPE loss
Season 15 - 22% TPE loss
Season 16 - 24% TPE loss
Season 17 - 26% TPE loss
Season 18 - 28% TPE loss
Season 19 - 30% TPE loss
Season 20 - 32% TPE loss
Season 21 - 35% TPE loss
Season 22 - 40% TPE loss
Season 23 and later 50% TPE loss
Season 26: Automatically Retired
Yes, I am coming from the outside looking in as someone who is not super active in this league. Yet, I do understand the hockey world and love the group simulation sports has brought together. I am truly of the belief that these changes would be beneficial to the league and that we will see a few small changes that can lead to larger positive long-term benefits for the SHL. Feel free to leave your thoughts in the comments and rip me apart if I am so far off the current standing of the league.
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#14

09-13-2024, 02:07 PMSpartanGibbles Wrote: As someone who fought regression for a 25 season SHL career, it's not a path many would take. You see a lot less of a return in effort just to maintain tpe as a player before the final tiers even hit. If we had a glut of people still playing at the final regression tier then maybe it would be a problem, but it's more that a few outliers like myself felt like going the distance and seeing how long we could stretch a career. Personally I went for as long as my player could before being replaced on Minny but could have likely bumped around to other teams if I really wanted to. For some it's chasing a story or record, but to make a player last that long is a 4-5 year commitment.
I appreciate the input! I don't know much about this league and honestly this was the only obvious "flaw" I could write a piece on! After reflecting on it I do think it is cool to have the opportunity to go really far! I do think 30+ seasons is a little aggressive though
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