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hhh81 · 03-17-2020, 12:50 AM

Best and worst value picks in the S53 SMJHL Draft

Henry Hemmert, The Athletic

Looking into the SMJHL’s S53 Entry Draft, there was a great deal of anxiety and uncertainty heading into the SHL’s first season of the FHM era. What would teams need? Who would rise to the occasion and who would struggle immediately? While we don’t know the answers to those questions, we now know more about this draft class. 83 players created (34 without any additional posts or update thread), and 54 were drafted. The Athletic, through an anonymous league source, got their hands on the draft board of the Colorado Raptors. Now, we will bring that to you to see how it matches up with the results at the top.

Our source shared that Colorado ranked 22 players* with 1st or 2nd round grades—4 centers, 6 wingers, 10 defensemen, and 2 goalies**. How well does Colorado’s draft board match how the draft went?

Round 1

1st Overall - Maine Timber Timber

select Mikkel Asmus Sondergard @Rabidsponge21
This was largely a no brainer—Rabidsponge21 is a known quantity for building elite defensemen in the SHL. Maine (formerly Halifax) desperately needed defense. From our source, he was the highest ranked defenseman and the second highest ranked player overall on Colorado’s board. So long as he stays amused (unlike the last 5-8 seasons of LKS), Halifax should have a star on their hands (and a potential top 5 pick in the S54 SHL Draft).

2nd Overall – Anchorage Armada Armada

select D Mathew Sawful @SAwful
This pick caught many off guard around the league, but this pick clearly wasn’t out of touch with Colorado’s draft board. They ranked Sawful as a solid first round pick, and the 4th highest ranked defender in the class. Anchorage must have gathered things they really liked about the young blueliner, and he should follow a long history of strong SMJHL defenders for the Armada.

3rd Overall – Newfoundland Berserkers

select D PBJ Souppan @thevoicelesscreator
Well known from NSFL, thevoicelesscreator carries some swagger into their first player on SHL. The player has a great name, and the user was very vocal in the Meet the GMs locker room. It isn’t surprising to see Newfoundland take a chance on the first gen here, though it was a bit higher than many expected. Souppan was part of a tier of defenders in the mid-1st for the Raptors, alongside Sawful and Joseph Fantobens. The user seems to have a plan on how to balance and stay active with multiple sim leagues; I anticipate we will look back on this as a solid pick come next season.

4th Overall – Kelowna Knights Knights

select RW Simon Takshak @GeckoeyGecko
Everyone’s favorite resident weirdo, Geck can be an acquired taste. Despite lobbying hard for being the first overall pick in the draft, he instead went to Kelowna at 4th overall. The Knights hope Takshak v2.0 can be more successful than Tokek, Geck’s last player (who ended his career with a heartbreaking Challenge Cup Finals lost against his old team.
This is the first player that wasn’t given a first-round grade by Johnny Hamilton and the Colorado brass. Takshak was ranked as an early second rounder by the team; this is in part due to Colorado’s overwhelming need for defensemen from this draft. I have no doubt if we were to get our hands on a need-blind ranking of the class, Takshak would and should be a first-round pick in this class.

5th Overall - Vancouver Whalers Whalers

select G Cal Covid @Skeleton Party
This honestly was the most shocking pick of the first round. Goalies rarely, if ever, go in the first round, ESPECIALLY first gen players. Since S47, goalies have gone in the first round of the SMJHL Draft six times: Alexander Thorstrom (2nd overall, S47), Elizabeth Doyle (5th overall, S50), Luca Del Vecchio (9th overall, S50), White Goodman (10th overall, S50), Olli Saarinen, Jr. (7th overall, S51), and now Cal Covid. All of the other cases involved users—Jesster, Evok, Zoone, Jearim, prettyburn—with well-established track records on the site. Covid bucks this trend, but shows Vancouver management since the post-Luke/Glyc era goes for goalie when they know they need it. With White Goodman’s graduating to Texas in the SHL, Vancouver needs it. Colorado ranked Covid the third best goalie in the class with a third round ranking—the team also did not scout goalies extensively due to having a strong tandem of Samat Beibitzhanov and Jerry Huuveri currently.

6th Overall - Colorado Raptors Raptors

select D Aumy Jr @st4rface
It’s clear, with three graduations, Colorado needed defense. They told many draft picks exactly that leading up to the draft, to help redirect their mocks (if only slightly). Many mocks pegged PBJ Souppan here. With him gone earlier, Colorado instead selected an old-timey recreate in Aumy Jr. Their draft board marked him as “the safest pick in the first round,” showing their scouts felt confident he would pan out for the team. They ranked him the second best defenseman (and third best player) in this class. Hopefully for them, it works out and he joins a long line of successful top SHL talent from the Raptors under Johnny Hamilton.

7th Overall - Kelowna Knights Knights

(via CAR) select C Daniel Laforest @Snoopdogg
Believe it or not, Daniel Laforest was the highest rated player on the Colorado Raptors draft board overall. Why then, didn’t they take him one pick earlier? Laforest struck them as a star-first-generation forward prospect, but the need for defensemen was too strong, so they passed. Kelowna didn’t, getting possibly one of the best young players in this draft class at 7th overall. This kid exudes talent and professionalism. He contacted GMs before they could speak to him. He was eager to take on a role lower in the lineup, and then grow into a star centerman. If he sticks with it, I have no doubts we will hear his name in the top 5 of the next SHL draft, and likely see him in the running for an MVP two seasons from now.

8th Overall - Detroit Falcons Falcons

select D Joseph Fantobens @Fantobens
Colorado ranked Fantobens much lower than they customarily would—a recreate with a strong pedigree for being a good SMJHL player agent, if not also solid in the SHL—alongside first-gen defenders Sawful and Souppan. Unfortunately, Fantobens declined to speak with Raptors management, making it crystal clear he wanted Detroit and only Detroit. This pick was a no brainer for many (but maybe not the true rookies. Sorry first gens!) Detroit’s strong culture continues to bite everyone else, and Detroit gets a great value pick. He will be a big factor in the locker room and on the ice as @notorioustig pursues his first Four Star Cup.

9th Overall - St. Louis Scarecrows

select RW William Lockwood @Lockwood
This wasn’t a shocking pick. Lockwood impressed a lot of teams with his predraft activity and interviews. He’s a natural first round pick, which was even clearer looking at Colorado’s draft board. Lockwood was the only other forward (outside of Laforest) ranked as a first rounder (9th overall). St. Louis got a strong player at this pick, and he should grow into another great SMJHLer. The only issue is he might not buy into the “Detroit Hate” party that is frequent for Scarecrows, as he himself is a Michigander. Time will tell!

10th Overall - Anaheim Outlaws Outlaws

select FORFEIT
Cheating doesn’t pay, except when you still get a Four Star Cup. BDonini will take it, and I’ll take the opportunity to remind everyone that he made the following trade prior to the S50 Draft:

To

S50 1st (3rd overall) – Selected John Forfeit (273 TPE)

To Raptors

LW Anthony Archer (salary retained)
raiders

S50 3rd (28th overall) – Selected C Henrik Lundqvist Jr (590 TPE)
Outlaws

S51 3rd (27th overall) – RW Matthew Anderson (176 TPE)
Outlaws

S52 1st (3rd overall) – RW Hiroshi Ohira (279 TPE)
Outlaws

S52 5th (43rd overall) - D Glen Anders (203 TPE)

While Anderson and Anders have struggled to stay active, Archer was a solidifying physical force for the S50 Colorado run to the Four Star Cup Finals and now is a mainstay for Tampa Bay. Henrik Lundqvist Jr was one of the biggest risers in the S51 class, going from 28th in the SMJHL Draft to 6th overall to Texas, and Hiroshi Ohira just was drafted 27th overall to Manhattan. The aptly named Jon Forfeit never put it together and went inactive at under 300 TPE. This trade should go down in the history books for a gamble that did not work.

Round 2

11th overall - Maine Timber Timber

select C Konrad Danke @JHS
Many were shocked to see Danke drop out of the first round; from the mock drafts, he was a consensus first rounder. He was one of the most vocal and active players in the class, and as a recreate, had some edge with TPE and general knowledge. This impressed Colorado—while they didn’t have a need for a centerman early, they were impressed and seemed to have done a deep dive on JHS’ past on the site. Maine gets another strong choice in this class.

12th overall - Anchorage Armada Armada

select G Scoochie Stratton @honkerrs
A lot of people said “who?” when this pick was announced. From the leaked draft board, Stratton didn’t even get a grade from Colorado—based on the other information we have, they would likely have ranked him a 3rd round value. Time will tell if this pick is brilliant by Anchorage or stupid. With goalies, you never know. What we do know is the Armada could use a replacement for Ian Venables between the pipes. They believe Stratton is that guy.

13th overall - Newfoundland Berserkers

select G Cale Amundsen @Wally
Wally is the notorious former manager of several promising goalie prospects, leading many of us to see him as the consensus top goalie prospect in this class. Colorado ranked him as such, giving him a second round grade. While Wally’s successes have eluded him the last 10 seasons in the SHL, his past players have found success as the SMJHL level. At the very least, Newfoundland should have a solid four year starter when Wally hits the cap. For his sake, we pray he can keep with it this time.

14th overall - Kelowna Knights Knights

select RW Devin Williams @MrRuihu
A very late riser on draft boards, Devin Williams surprised many being picked this high. It shouldn’t. Man times we see someone create in the eleventh hour before a draft and go on a storm to complete Interested Prospects threads that GMs scramble to scout that player. Williams is the latest such prospect to the SMJHL. When Colorado scouted him, they marked him a 3rd round talent—this was before he completed the last 5 IP threads and chatted with a few GMs. If MrRuihu sticks with it, this is a great pick. Time will tell, as with many first-gens, how the risk-reward balanced out.

15th overall - St. Louis Scarecrows

select G Richard Majors @Hefe4711
Colorado gave Majors a 2nd round grade and 23rd overall, good for the second best goalie of the class. His activity took the league by storm and impressed many GMs (including Nictox, who took a shot at the first gen goalie). They hope the pick pays off—like Vancouver, they are looking to find the heir apparent to their S50 goaltender in this draft. St. Louis made a strong call getting an elite winger first, then still getting a top goalie prospect in the second round.

16th overall - Vancouver Whalers Whalers

select D Ryosuke Sato @Dextaria
The notes on this pick are thin. Colorado graded Sato as a late 2nd round value (21st overall on their board), but didn’t scout him particularly thoroughly. I can’t say much on this pick. Vancouver clearly focuses on different metrics than the Raptors, based on their first two picks.

17th overall - Anaheim Outlaws Outlaws

select D Emilia Bergmann @Renomitsu
Remember what I said about eleventh hour creates and flying up draft boards? This also applies to Renomitsu. He blew several GMs away in the hour prior to the draft beginning, and Anaheim used their first pick to lock down the shutdown blueliner. Colorado’s management must’ve hated seeing this pick; they had Bergmann rated 15th overall on their board, and hoped he would slide to them at 28. I anticipate Bergmann will stick with it and we’ll hear her name in the first round of the next SHL Draft.

18 - Maine Timber Timber

(via COL) select C Patrick Shepherd @Cobbenstein
Oh this hurts for Johnny Hamilton. Hamilton persuaded Shepherd to join the Raptors for their playoff push this past year, and stayed in touch with the youngster throughout the draft process. When it became clear they wouldn’t be likely to bring the young centerman back, Hamilton has been reported to have called Cobbenstein yesterday morning to wish him well. Shepherd is a good character player and should grow into an impressive player for the Timber. It must hurt to see Shepherd taken with their own pick (traded away for F-R Finn-Rhys in S50).

19th overall - Maine Timber Timber

(via DET, via CAR) select G Leo Bloomfield @BloomeyGB
This looked like a horrible pick, but has been redeemed by Bloomfield returning to activity. At the time of the draft, the goalie was a one-post, one-visit player. These players rarely turn out to amount to much, but Bloomfield as already created an update thread, done Team Training Camp, and looks like a solid future option for the Timber.

20 - Newfoundland Berserkers

(via DET) select Tinke Jutila @Snussu
Jutila, as a recreate, should have gone earlier than this. Seven defensemen—6 of them first-gen players—went ahead of him in this draft. Newfoundland is thrilled he fell this far, and I’m sure Snussu will make the rest of the league regret it as he drops big hits as a rookie. Colorado ranked Jutila the eighth best prospect and the 7th best defender in this class. One has to wonder if the track record of Snussu’s last player led to part of Jutila’s slide. At this point in the draft, this is a great pick.

Best of the Rest
After the first two rounds, it appears that six players from Colorado’s top 20 remained undrafted. Those included defenders Elwulf Jericson @Jericson and AJ Patella, who both received first round grades, and a number of forwards (including Colorado third-round pick, RW Randen Skog. Surprising many, Colorado ranked Jericson the best first-gen blueliner in the class (he was taken 25th overall by St. Louis). I’m sure Hamilton and the Colorado brass hoped Jericson would fall to them at 28.

As a fun note, Jean-Uthred Ragnarsson-Tremblay @"lespoils" was ranked fairly lowly on Colorado’s board—his past track record with the oft maligned Francophone Pierre Laroche-Durocher, plus lack of predraft presence, led many teams to overlook him. Upon being drafted (similar to Leo Bloomfield) he burst into activity and has already bought his seasonal coaching to bump up his TPE. JURT may be a steal for the Raptors if he’s learned from his challenges with PLD.

Biggest differences between draft board and actual results***
Colorado ranked D AJ Patella @WarbeastSG as a first rounder pick; he was taken 25 picks later than their board projected. Leo Bloomfield was tied alongside 27 other one-post players toward the bottom of Colorado’s draft board as inactives. He went 19th overall. Cal Covid was the highest drafted player outside Colorado’s top 20 (ranked 27th, went 5th overall), while G Scoochie Stratton was unranked by the Raptors.

*At the time of the draft, recreate defenseman Will Windsor was left off Colorado’s draft sheet, due to him not appearing in the prospects list until later Sunday afternoon. If he was, it’s our understanding Windsor would have received an early second round draft ranking for the Raptors.
**The paucity of goalies reflects Colorado’s lack of need for a goalie in this draft. At least another goalie or two could have joined these rankings, including Cal Covid. Because goalie was a nonfactor, that hurt the draft rankings for many tenders.
***It was rumored three players were on the notorious “Do Not Draft list” for Colorado due to character issues. We are not at liberty to discuss whether this is true.

Quote:2x Draft Bonus, approximately 2750 words. GIMME BIG PAYDAY XOXO

JHS · 03-17-2020, 01:08 AM

all the words are black cant read in dark mode Undecided

JHS · 03-17-2020, 01:11 AM

Great article in light mode tho, thanks for the kind words!

Dextaria · 03-17-2020, 01:27 AM

"The notes on this pick are thin" yea sounds about right. Great read.

Cobbenstein · 03-17-2020, 01:48 AM

I can confirm that my client Patrick Shepherd was called by Johnny Hamilton the morning of the draft. The Raptors are a world class organization and its almost poetic that they were still indirectly related to where he eventually ended up with the Maine Timber.

Frostbite · 03-17-2020, 02:00 AM

seems like you forgot a Lizard.

Good article though!

st4rface · 03-17-2020, 02:08 AM

Good article. I will prove that Aumy Jr. was greatest player of this draft class! Go Raptors! Raptors

CementHands · 03-17-2020, 02:18 AM

I love the poetic justice we got with getting Cobbenstein with a former Col pick. We love having him on the team, and we will give him a good home Smile

MyLittleHexx · 03-17-2020, 08:54 AM

I for sure was one of the Do Not Draft players lol

BDonini · 03-17-2020, 10:45 AM

I’ll let the flaunting of that disaster trade slide after the high praise you gave my first two draft picks Tongue

Rabidsponge21 · 03-17-2020, 11:32 AM

So long as he stays amused (unlike the last 5-8 seasons of LKS),

I mean you aren't wrong lol. I ran out of steam hugely at the end of it all. But that doesnt really matter for Minors drafts Tongue

hhh81 · 03-17-2020, 01:05 PM

03-17-2020, 11:32 AMRabidsponge21 Wrote: So long as he stays amused (unlike the last 5-8 seasons of LKS),

I mean you aren't wrong lol. I ran out of steam hugely at the end of it all. But that doesnt really matter for Minors drafts

For sure! I have no doubt you'll hit 350, even if you get bored afterwards.

LKS went for so long, updating didn't even matter at that point in STHS.

Snoopdogg · 03-17-2020, 02:53 PM

Nice job, thanks for the compliments and encouragement.

LordBirdman · 03-17-2020, 03:33 PM

Great read and insight into the draft process into a top notch front office! Raptors

***Wally*** · 03-17-2020, 05:00 PM

Thanks for the words... I mean Olli definitely was stuck with though, the notorious suspension sort of derailed that... still garnered ample awards and piped the Chiefs to the S39 championship. Just didn't stick around for regression. But yes, AOV... big big fail. Had such aspirations, limited opportunities league wide and same old system in SimonT got stale. Excited for what the FHM change will bring.

Nice job on the article in general @hhh81

Good luck this season!

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