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S54 WFT #4 - Playoff Race

i think we, the manhattan rage, have been too consistent over the course of this season to drop that many points. in my opinion new england would really have to take it to a couple high caliber teams to make up the ground they need to.
(This post was last modified: 06-21-2020, 10:26 PM by Nhamlet.)

Race for the #1 seed, Eastern Conference:
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Between Buffalo and Hamilton, they’re probably going to be a slightly weighted coin toss right until the end. It’s a shame that their next game is against each other rather than being right at the end because it could potentially decide who takes the top spot in the league. Arguably Buffalo has the edge in more games against the softest types of opponents as noted by the green text. It’s not a great comparison when you look at some of the nuances of the teams they face. For example the orange colored text specifies ‘medium’ level teams where they could (and maybe for both Buffalo and Hamilton are still expected to win for the most part) potentially lose to. Hamilton has never lost to New England but has to face New Orleans, whereas Buffalo faces Texas, a real wild card of either being a hard win or a narrow loss. Still when the decision is too difficult to call based on the remaining schedule, attempting to be fair and giving them both a 50% win rate on those games, Buffalo still holds the narrow 4 point lead. I could absolutely see a scenario where Hamilton takes the last season series game (despite yet again how close everything is between these two teams) and gets one over Chicago while Buffalo stumbles, making up the 4 point difference. It’s honestly so hard to say but at the end of it all I’m inclined to go with Buffalo strictly because they have that one extra game against a weaker team and there hasn’t been much to separate the teams in terms of goals for or goals against.

Race for the last playoff spot, Eastern Conference:

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Honestly saw this going differently and judging by the overwhelming number of people who had picked New England to be first in their division (about 33 of the 340+ responses selected Manhattan, majority of the rest were New England) Yet we find ourselves with New England falling behind by 5 points although with a game in hand. Honestly though, as much as I want to cheer for New England and my additional TPE, I have a seriously hard time thinking that they’re going to pull out of this given their terrible track record this season. They have only 6 wins to show out of 20 games played against teams currently in a playoff spot. Which doesn’t sound too bad. Of those 7 games, 6 of them are against Manhattan for whatever strange reason and the remaining game was an extra time ordeal against Texas whom they lost to next game leaving them with an abysmal record against playoff teams. New England has an extra game against weaker competition compared to Manhattan as well as an extra game in hand, but combined with the fact that they have to face both Chicago and Hamilton twice each? Plus the poor record against playoff performers, it almost seems impossible to see Manhattan dropping the ball at this point and New England suddenly pulling a horseshoe out of their butt in taking points from basically every single game from this point forward. Manhattan is the last team to end up in the playoffs and I think they can feel fairly comfortable by the time they have 5 games remaining.

Race for the #1 seed AND the last playoff spot, Western Conference:
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This race is exciting with how many variations and possibilities that could potentially come out depending if one team or another goes on a bender or completely flubs their games. With how it stands, New Orleans has been showing that they’ve been the hottest out of the bunch lately and also has a solid record even against some of the more difficult teams in Chicago and Hamilton. Especially with 3 games against Los Angeles and Edmonton, they have the potential to solidify their spot simply by winning those key games. I would be hard pressed not to put them at the top of the seeding just because they have looked so good lately with an 8-2-2 record in the last 12 games.

Edmonton on the other hand has been stumbling harder and harder as of late. Even with the likes of Tony Pepperoni and Julio Tokolosh being 1st and 3rd in scoring respectively, their main concern is the defensive side to the point that outsourcing their opponents just isn’t feasible and the area of greatest impact is finding a way to stop the bleeding. They’re currently the worst goals allowed out of the four teams currently in the playoffs, and only Calgary, Winnipeg and Minnesota are worse in the Western Conference. Likewise to New Orleans, winning the 1st game against Buffalo and Chicago bears well for the second half of the series as well as having the opportunity to play against NOLA twice and Texas once means they are well in control over where they will end up in the playoffs. I don’t think that they will be able to stymie the defensive holes immediately and will have to settle for being 3rd in the end.

Los Angeles is the team I’m anticipating to be sitting just behind New Orleans, pending the game against them. They have the most games in hand at 10, play against 4 very winnable teams in Minnesota, Winnipeg, Baltimore and Tampa Bay. That already puts them in territory of taking the top seed and certainly leaping over Edmonton who only has one more point but 3 less games left in hand. The matches against Calgary, New England and Calgary all seem to be in the favor judging by the prior season series record...Honestly, maybe I should revert my thoughts on who takes 1st in the West. I don’t want it to happen just for the sake of my ‘bold’ Season predictions and the hope that the division doesn’t completely hoop me with everybody flopping everywhere.

With how we’re right at the finish line, I feel like I’m with most people in cheering for Texas to make some noise as a surprise team for the playoffs even if it’s at the cost of seemingly other deserving teams. They’ve surprised so many and it’s reflected in the records they hold like a 2-1 record against Edmonton and 3-2 against Los Angeles. Since they’re flawed as a team, that is, not fully fleshed like some of their competitors are, even with easier games against Winnipeg and Minnesota as well as looking to sweep their series against Calgary, it looks like it won’t go as smoothly as they would like it. I think they do do enough to keep themselves ahead of Calgary, given the fact that their upcoming games are much easier than Calgary’s is, plus even with the difference in TPE they’ve shown themselves to be a threat to anybody that plays them.

I just don’t see Calgary coming out of the West. It’s possible that the clock strikes midnight for the Renegades and Calgary finds themselves winning games against teams they’ve struggled with all season (LAP, SFP) but they haven’t really shown much outside of a couple blips in some players like Batsbak and Kennedy Jr. Tough season to end it on but they’ll be sitting outside, potentially even behind the San Francisco Pride.
Reason for the Pride being ahead of the Dragons is those four supposedly gimme games. I know that they’ve dropped 2 against Winnipeg but they should get some points against them right…? Either way, it’s a tale of sadness for whoever ends up at this point because they’ve just missed out entirely.

Final Standings
Panthers
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Dragons

Race to get a single point:

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Absolutely zero chance. Tampa Bay might be facing Toronto who’s supposed to be the 2nd worst team this season but even then Tampa has lost by scores of 3-0 and 9-1. TBB also never was within a goal of tying any of their games this season. The fact that they’ve repeatedly lost by multiple goals every game shows me that even when teams aren’t doing well, they do well enough to guarantee themselves a regulation win against the Tanking Tampa.

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I think Buffalo has the #1 seed in the eat locked down. They seem to beat every team they face easily. Plus they have Doyle in net who is phenomenal

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Wolfpack New England Wolfpack - 47 points, 11 games remaining Wolfpack !!! I think the New England Wolf Pack will easily be able to achieve the last play off spot avaiable due to their very good hockey play and their abiltiy to really get pucks deep and score goals while not allowing TOO many goals allowed on them. this is why i think the new england hockey club team can be able to be able to achieve this positonoing. i hope them the best in their journeys to the challenge cup. i know theyat thay can ddo it.


I think that we will see Tampa Bay get a win in one of their next two games. They have two home games against the second worst team, I think they can take home at least one of them

Buffalo will get 1st in the East. They can afford to drop a game if Hamilton wins out, which is unlikely. 1st is really their to lose at this point and I don't see that happening.

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Race for the #1 seed, Eastern Conference: 
This race is going to come down to the last few game I believe. Both teams have been cruising their way to the #1 spot, but I believe that looking at the remainder of the schedule Buffalo has one of the easiest last 10 games. They will play Tampa Bay, Minnesota, Baltimore, and Toronto. Hamilton does not get that many easier games and will have to face the New England Wolfpack twice, who is fighting for the last spot in the playoffs and will be going hard to finish there.
Falcons (90 words) Chiefs

Race for the last playoff spot, Eastern Conference:
This will also be a race that will come down to the last few games, if not the last game where New England will have to square off with Hamilton twice and Manhattan gets Calgary, who is fitting to get into the playoffs on the other side, as well as facing Buffalo in their last game of the season. I would say that they virtually have a similar strength schedule remaining, but New England has a game in hand and one of the best forwards in the league that's been warm all season and looking to heat things up!
Falcons (99 words) Chiefs

Race for the #1 seed AND the last playoff spot, Western Conference:

Honestly, this side is way too hard to figure out who will come out as the #1 seed and who will barely squeeze into the playoffs. Could go to any of them since they are all close in points, and there are a good number of games left to be played that can totally shake up the standings from what they are now. My prediction for the #1 seed is Edmonton Blizzard, then Los Angeles Panthers tying New Orleans for #2 see but going because of ROW, followed up by Texas Renegades edging out the Calgary Dragons for the #4 seed and last spot in the playoffs.
Falcons (107 words) Chiefs

Race to get a single point:
To be honest, I do not think they will get a single point this season. I really hope they prove me wrong, but I just do not see it happening. Not after gutting the team of their decent players and them playing players out of position or very low TPE, just do not think they could muster up even sending it into overtime... Maybe they will get a few points next season, I guess...
Falcons (74 words) Chiefs

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I think LAP has a decent chance to make the first seed, we're only one point behind NOLA, and we're tied with Edmonton with more games in hand. It's gonna be a close one, but we have the team to make it.

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I don't see Tampa Bay getting a single point the rest of the season. The team has allowed 220 more goals than they've scored. The team has lost two one-goal games and three two-goal games, but even with Leitner playing well, the Barracuda offense is too low-TPE to do much of anything. The team has four players with 10 or more points, and Michael Fitted is the only one who does more than barely clear that bar.

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