A WAY too early look at expansion lists, Part 3: Atlantic Division Less too early, now just early
By: Harry Hemmert, IndyHockey.com
Hello friends. A lot has happened since part two (most notably with a pair of trades from Buffalo over the weekend). I won’t go back and rewrite my earlier parts, but the addition of Eko Van Otter changes the outlook for both Buffalo and New England, especially in light of our two expansion GMs being named. Congrats again @notorioustig and @hotdog !
In part three, we look at the Atlantic Division, the part of this that people seem the most excited/impatient for!
Locks: F (3): Petr Mikulak, Karl Krashwagen, Ethan Duncan D (4): Nat Emerson, Valentin Kalashnikov, Derek Bohne Jr, Sabo Tage G (1): Luca Del Vecchio
Top prospects Kalashnikov and Duncan seem like no brainers to protect, alongside captain Emerson, top young winger Krashwagen, and LDV. Beyond that, this team is full of question marks. I think Bohne, newly acquired and reinvigorated to the league, picks up the final D protection spot. Mikulak is one of the few actively updating forwards on the team, so he’s likely also safe.
Bubble: F Brock Nuck, F Indigo Trevino, Henrik Lundqvist Jr, F Simothy Drunkebird, F Nickolas Klaus
After Mikulak/Krashwagen/Duncan, there’s not much to excite on the Platoon at forward. Klaus is inactive, but still a decent forward early in regression. Trevino “retired” after his user’s stupid, half-assed political “dialogue” got exposed (good riddance and goodbye, Carbine), so he’s likely not worth protecting. Nuck and Drunkebird are still updating, though the former is going into year three of regression and is far from his earlier days. HLJ was acquired from Texas in hopes of being part of the future for the Platoon, but last updated in May and hasn’t been seen since. None of the options are great, but I think four of those players will get protected by Baltimore. It’s also likely BAP could make another trade to grab a middling forward another team can’t protect (maybe by sending a pick or two acquired last week from TOR). JR could also lean into the rebuild and use the picks they just acquired from Toronto to add to the pipeline. They have some solid forward depth in their system that’s expansion exempt (Lord Raiden, Teddy Park, and Patrick Shepherd, for instance), though not much on the blueline outside of Kalashnikov. Regardless of whether Trevino “officially” retired or not, I think they expose him, just like the site exposed his antics.
Exposed: F Dayymo Ralchankinov (retired), F Indigo Trevino (retired?), D Khan Smeb, F Kristoffer Svensson, G Marques Brownlee, D Danila Zhernov, D. Jack Wilson
Who gets taken: Who cares?
Honestly, though, none of these players are worth taking. Zhernov is again inactive, but Smeb is a better inactive defenseman. Brownlee is a forgettable inactive backup—there are many better options in expansion at goalie. Dayymo and Trevino (probably) are retired. That leaves Smeb as a 6D and Svensson as an adequate third line forward taken later in expansion. Both are UFAs this season
Manhattan
Locks: F (4): Jax Aittokallio, Luke Thomason, Ola Wagstrom, Austin Roenick D (3): Barret McCarthy, Andrej Doskocil, David Vent G (1): Peter Larson
Bubble: F David Kastrba, F Alex Winters, F Luca Veccelli, F Phineas Gold, F Santtu Rasanen, D Geoff Moore, D Jukka Timonen
Manhattan’s protection lists come down to a few questions. Goalie is likely cemented with Peter Larson as the guy over rookie backup Samat Beibitzhanov. Aittokallio and Thomason are must protects, Wagstrom is a 2k player who wants to play in Manhattan for a long time, and Roenick is one of the team’s better players they no doubt hope to retain past this season. McCarthy, Doskocil, and Vent embody the heart and soul of the Rage locker room and are pretty solid players to boot.
The final defensive protection slot will come down to recent acquisition Geoff Moore or rookie blueliner Jukka Timonen. I imagine Timonen, while several hundred TPE behind the veteran Moore, will take the protection spot as the future 1D for the Rage.
At forward, things get a little more interesting. Veccelli’s development has stalled a little bit putting him a sizable distance TPE wise behind the rest of the options. He’s still only an S50 player, and has earned here and there the last few months. Winters and Kastrba are life-long Rage players who are still strong second liners (if not first line in certain combinations); both see their contracts expire this offseason, though, and either could consider a new team a welcome change of pace. Gold is a solidly developing S50 player who is on the upward climb still, while Rasanen is the team’s top prospect with Timonen’s graduation. Manhattan can only protect 3/5 of those forwards.
If I had to guess (and the premise of this media is guessing), I think so long as Kastrba and Winters want to stay, they get protected alongside Gold. If one of them would want to leave in free agency (or expansion), I think their slot goes to Rasanen. Rasanen is a good prospect who can fill a third line role as Manhattan’s forward depth ages. For this, I’ll guess Winters has some interest in going to an expansion squad and/or hitting FA. After missing out with his expansion bid, @39alaska39 may be looking to try something new outside of Manhattan.
Exposed: G Samat Beibitzhanov, F Anastasia O’Koivu, D Reginald McIntyre, D Geoff Moore, F Luca Veccelli, F Alex Winters
Who gets taken: Depends on who the expansion teams are.
I think McIntyre has more value to Manhattan than other teams, and being a little further into regression might let him fly under the radar. It’s also possible JY will make a side deal to send an expansion team a pick to protect one of their core pieces (maybe Winters or Moore)? The goalie market seems pretty fully for expansion, but Beibitzhanov is another solid backup on a contender who could be valuable if given his own crease.
In the end, barring any side deals I think Geoff Moore and either Winters or Beibitzhanov get taken.
New England
Locks F (5): Mitchell van der Heijden, Jakub Bruchevski, Stan Hanson, Slap McShotty, Ethan Price, D (3): Sven Yxskaft, Perry Morgan, Dominic Montgomery G (1): Frans Eller
Bubble: F Sasha Dangelchek, F Rainbow Dash, F Rafe Ulrich, F Shooter McGavin, F “Clean” Andrei Kostitsyn, D Igor Volkov, D Erben Kasius
New England has a tricky protection situation, mostly due to their defense. They have five defensemen likely in the mix for protection—the young star and newly minted Co-GM Yxskaft, former NEW lifer Montgomery, solid second pairing blueliner Perry Morgan, Igor Volkov, and top prospect Erben Kasius. Deciding between those five will be difficult. I think Ace will find any way possible to protect Kasius, meaning most likely one of Morgan or Volkov will be exposed (and likely taken by an expansion team without a juicy side deal). For this investigation, I think Volkov will be the odd man out. I imagine Ace will trade one of his defensemen before the trade deadline to recoup some value, or work the phones to keep his former Co-GM, hotdog, from taking whichever defender loses musical protection chairs.
At forward, the situation is even murkier. Dash, Ulrich, and McGavin are all aging options who are serviceable, albeit regressing, UFA forwards The allegedly clean Kostitsyn hasn’t been active in two weeks; could a mythic bender after his trade from Hamilton knocked Kostitsyn off the wagon and into a self-destructive spiral? Is he just on vacation? We don’t know.
Finally, Dangelchek is far from a top earner in his draft class, but is still updating for the Wolfpack. I think he gets the sixth protection spot. From the last group, I think Rainbow Dash (as the youngest of the UFA forwards and most recently online) or Kostitsyn are the most likely to grab the final protection slot. Honestly, a New England-Toronto trade with one of TOR’s forwards exchanged for a Wolfpack defender would have made a lot of sense (instead, the North Stars grabbed Delver Fudgson from Baltimore; it looks like their blueline is set for expansion). I’m not convinced Kostitsyn will be back, but for the information we have right now, I’ll put him as protected.
Exposed: G Mike Hroch, F Jan Zacha, D Maximilian Egger, D Troy McClure III, D Michael Lee, F Rainbow Dash, F. Rafe Ulrich, F Shooter McGavin, D Igor Volkov
Who gets taken: Volkov and ???
Without a side deal or trade, I think whichever of the defensemen don’t get protected should be taken by an expansion team. With the other spot, there’s a few options that could work. I think better goalies will be available, but Hroch is active and young still. He might never be a starter in the SHL, but solid backups are valuable, especially while younger players develop. Beyond that, I think expansion teams may chat with Raven/Eggy/c00kies and see their feelings about being on an expansion squad. If any of them are active locker room presences, even if the play on the ice isn’t great, they can help build a culture for the new teams. If not, any of those three could be fine filler as a 4th/5th winger on a brand new team, while new prospects develop. I’ll speculate Eggy’s open to it, keeps updating somewhat, and adds a vocal and veteran presence to a team’s locker room. Egger or McClure could also be options as inactive bottom pair defenseman. I’ll speculate that Egger or Rainbow Dash will be the other Wolfpack player taken, depending on team needs in the middle of the draft.
Tampa Bay
Locks: F (5): Tom Fiddler, James Ronlain, Michael Fitted, Frederick Wanesly, Zoltan Topalo D (2): Ambacas Cuddles, Jakob Hamr G (1): Jerry Huuveri
Bubble: F Mega Tron, F Anthony Archer, F Kalevolaripaavo Kaspertommevisnapuu
Most of Tampa Bay’s value is hidden in the S54 and S55 draft classes. This might be one of the few teams to use the any 10 players v. 7-4-1 protection rule. On the blue line, Hamr and Cuddles are the only active players in the system. Huuveri is the starter of the future, Wanesly and Topalo are Falcons teammates who should premiere for the Cudas next season, and Fitted-Fiddler-Ronlain is a solid young top line, albeit consistently overmatched by the lack of skill around them.
KalKas and Mega Tron are still active, albeit not top earners. Archer hit 900 TPE before going IA and has a solid defensive forward build. Whoever TBB doesn’t protect from this trio is likely a selection in the expansion draft.
In all honestly, though, I think we all anticipate TBB making a deal to grab a player another team cannot protect prior to protection lists being due.
Exposed: G Tobias Lindeman, F Al Kayhall, D Flash Gordon, F Taisei-Tiikeri Wawazat (newly retired), D Johnny Sins, D Miikka Salo (retired), D Liam O’Callaghan, F Herb Robert, D Craig Finley, G Benjamin Blue (retired), one of the bubble guys
Who gets taken: F Kalevolaripaavo Kaspertommevisnapuu and whatever spare part is still available in the later rounds of the draft.
I’m guessing trella keeps Archer as a steady defensive forward IA who can fill a role until their bevy of young forwards develop further and exposes one of the semi-actives. Mega Tron is less than 100 TPE behind KalKas and two seasons younger. Who to protect may depend on who is the better LR presence. After that pick, there’s a bunch of old hand-me-downs a team could take a chance on. O’Callaghan and Finley are okay third pairing defensemen for a rebuilding team, and Robert is similar at forward. Beyond that, there’s not much to see.
With 75% done, we have 10 forwards, 10 defensemen, and 4 goalies projected to be selected. This seems to be a much deeper pool of solid defensemen than solid forwards. Some rebalancing may be in order after I review all 16 teams.
Quote:Ready for grading, 2027 words!
Thank you karey, OrbitingDeath Ragnar, and sköldpaddor for sigs!
08-17-2020, 09:07 PM(This post was last modified: 08-17-2020, 09:12 PM by bluesfan55.)
and the day this comes out, (clean) makes his grand return. fairly certain him and dangel will be our last protected forwards since dangel is essentially the heart and soul of our lr and we fucking love (clean) and his beautiful recorder playing.
defense will be pretty interesting to see with one of Volkov and Kasius left unprotected, I can see us swinging a possible trade happening to prevent one from going but I wouldn’t be surprised if the one left unprotected ends up being picked
ty to @High Stick King @EvilAllBran and @Ragnar for the sigs
08-17-2020, 09:07 PMbluesfan55 Wrote: and the day this comes out, (clean) makes his grand return. fairly certain him and dangel will be our last protected forwards since dangel is essentially the heart and soul of our lr and we fucking love (clean) and his beautiful recorder playing.
defense will be pretty interesting to see with one of Volkov and Kasius left unprotected, I can see us swinging a possible trade happening to prevent one from going but I wouldn’t be surprised if the one left unprotected ends up being picked
ffs, I wrote the entire NEW section tonight, and he hadn't been online. He must've decided to come back as soon as I checked on him lmao
Thank you karey, OrbitingDeath Ragnar, and sköldpaddor for sigs!
Actually, I'm interested in hearing what you think about Buffalo's situation after their recent trade for hotdog. You said in part 1 that you expected the Stampede to see (D) Nicholas Owens and (F) Michael Scarn taken by the expansion teams. With van Otter now taking up one of those slots, who do you see as the most likely player to be lost to the Seattle Argonauts?
Actually, I'm interested in hearing what you think about Buffalo's situation after their recent trade for hotdog. You said in part 1 that you expected the Stampede to see (D) Nicholas Owens and (F) Michael Scarn taken by the expansion teams. With van Otter now taking up one of those slots, who do you see as the most likely player to be lost to the Seattle Argonauts?
He says at the end that he will go back through after he's done to account for trades and such
Credit to Copenhagen, Wasty, FlappyGiraffe, InciteHysteria, and caltroit_red_flames
Actually, I'm interested in hearing what you think about Buffalo's situation after their recent trade for hotdog. You said in part 1 that you expected the Stampede to see (D) Nicholas Owens and (F) Michael Scarn taken by the expansion teams. With van Otter now taking up one of those slots, who do you see as the most likely player to be lost to the Seattle Argonauts?
He says at the end that he will go back through after he's done to account for trades and such
08-18-2020, 09:48 AMTheHockeyist Wrote: Oh, I've told Ace that if I get traded, I'll bring down the entire team. I don't think Ace is interested in trading me.
Or maybe he's only said that so I don't burn the team down. Wolfpack for life.
You won't be traded, you'll just be selected in the expansion draft.
08-18-2020, 09:48 AMTheHockeyist Wrote: Oh, I've told Ace that if I get traded, I'll bring down the entire team. I don't think Ace is interested in trading me.
Or maybe he's only said that so I don't burn the team down. Wolfpack for life.
You won't be traded, you'll just be selected in the expansion draft.
Oh, I have an active presence in the locker room. I doubt I'll be selected (even talked to Ace), and in protest, I wrote a media piece about it.
08-18-2020, 06:27 PMTheHockeyist Wrote: Oh, I have an active presence in the locker room. I doubt I'll be selected (even talked to Ace), and in protest, I wrote a media piece about it.
Ok, have fun in Seattle with Tig.
Then have fun when Igor suddenly retires because of this.
08-18-2020, 07:42 PM(This post was last modified: 08-18-2020, 07:43 PM by acdangel.)
08-17-2020, 09:07 PMbluesfan55 Wrote: and the day this comes out, (clean) makes his grand return. fairly certain him and dangel will be our last protected forwards since dangel is essentially the heart and soul of our lr and we fucking love (clean) and his beautiful recorder playing.
defense will be pretty interesting to see with one of Volkov and Kasius left unprotected, I can see us swinging a possible trade happening to prevent one from going but I wouldn’t be surprised if the one left unprotected ends up being picked
hhh81
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