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***hhh81*** · 08-22-2020, 11:34 AM

A WAY too early look at expansion lists, Part 4: Northwest Division

Less too early, now just early

By: Harry Hemmert, IndyHockey.com

After far more hours than I care to admit, here’s the fourth part! With the expansion lists getting posted publicly tomorrow, that forced my hand. Here’s the Northwest Division. A part “five” is inevitable with a special guest, so keep your eyes out!

Check out Part 1 (Great Lakes), Part 2 (Southwest), and Part 3 (Atlantic) to see what I projected for your favorite team!

Northwest Division

Jakarta

Locks:
F (6): Joseph Weston, Alexei Rykov, Atlas Rush, Esa Parmborg, Barry Batsbak, Maxime Bouchard
D (3): Brennan Kennedy Jr, Leopold Lockhart, Bradley Barkov
G (1): Kata Vilde

Similar to Winnipeg (more on that soon) Jakarta seems to have a pretty clear first group to protect. Parmborg is required as GM, Weston/Rykov/Rush/Barkov are the next wave of the team, and Bouchard/Batsbak/BKJ/Lockhart/Vilde are the current core. Esa should be thankful this draft happened this season versus another season from now so heir apparent goalie Cale Amundsen is expansion exempt.

Bubble: D Oliver Klozoff, D Chico Smeb, D Bernik Vrzala, F Nicky Pedersen Jr, F Mikael Choybuk, D Otis B Driftwood, F Anders Christiansen

After the first group, Jakarta has some decisions to make. There is one protection slot for a defenseman, and four viable options. Smeb is inactive, and Vrzala/Klozoff are both semi-active currently. Klozoff is also one of the few players on this team signed past S55. Slappydoodle is still posting on the forums but hasn’t updated himself since June 1 (Steelhead regressed him last season). I think they’ll protect one of Klozoff or Vrzala, as they are currently active, but who knows?

At forward, I think this comes down to Choybuk and Pedersen. Choybuk is vastly more active, so it should be him. He’s also a season younger, though both are relatively at the same level TPE wise. Christiansen is 4-5 seasons further into regression and fighting it harder, but I think they’ll let him walk.

Exposed: G Elle Rush, F Mike Izzy (retired), D Chico Smeb, D Bernik Vrzala, F Nicky Pederson, Jr., D Otis B. Driftwood, F Anders Christiansen

Who gets taken: Christiansen and one of Smeb or Vrzala

If you’re building a new team, maybe you want to take it slow and build a culture, build up through the draft for long term success. Maybe you see a player you were teammates with for a very long time. You know their best days are behind them, but you can trust them to be a voice in your locker room and be a solid forward for a season or two. Wouldn’t [i]you[/u] take that player mid-to-late in the expansion draft? (Hotdog, I’m talking about hotdog taking Christiansen).

As for the other selection, Vrzala and Smeb are both S46 defenseman. Smeb has about 100 more TPE, but Vrzala is still around doing stuff. Either would be a good option for a 3/4/5 defenseman. If a team needs a forward, Pederson would also be a fine choice, especially with the paucity of forwards I’ve projected drafting in this activity.

Edmonton

Locks:
F (2): Tony Pepperoni, Julio Tokolosh
D (3): Karlstrasse Scholz, Conor Tanner, FR Finn-Rhys
G (1): Emiko Spector

Bubble: F James Truong, F Theo Morgan, F Barrett Blackwood, F Jon Forty-One, F Jean-Paul Boivin, F Bo Kane, F Carlos Brown, F William Hartmann, D Tor Tuck, D Brady McIntyre

I won’t sit here and act like I have a damn clue what Edmonton’s going to do. TommySalami missing out on an expansion team creates some questions about how the team proceeds from here. The Blizzard has an excellent group of forwards, so it’s inevitable they’ll lose at least one 1300-1500 TPE player to expansion. Factoring in Tokolosh and Pepperoni as inevitable protections, that leaves only five slots for Keygan to play with and likely eight forwards in the mix.

Free agency also creates a bevy of questions for the Blizzard. McIntyre, Toner, Tuck, and Scholz are all UFAs this offseason on the blueline, and I would expect all but Toner to be 100% locks to resign in Edmonton, expansion notwithstanding. Forward is less clear. Two of the biggest acquisitiations last offseason—Bo Kane in free agency and Theo Morgan from LAP—are pending UFAs, and both have shown clear interest in testing the market. Hiro Fujikawa (inactive addition in that same LAP trade) joins them. Fujikawa seems a likely exposure regardless, but should Edmonton risk protecting their pending UFAs and run the risk of losing one of their other forwards? Do they think one or both of Kane/Morgan are likely to get passed over by expansion teams, so they can still resign them?

Even factoring out the pending UFAs, that cuts the list to 6 players vying for 5 spots. Forty-One is the best of the bunch, so he’s likely safe. Both of the prospects, Hartmann and Brown, are also UFAs. I think they retain Hartmann as a bridge to the next era of the Blizzard. I’m a huge fan of Carlos Brown (really, ask me all about it. @CB2212 is great.) He’s loyal to EDM and is excited to play for the Blizzard soon, though he’s not nearly the earner that Hartmann is, and lags behind any other forward the Blizz might dress next season. He’d be the perfect sort of player for a young expansion squad to build around. Boivin, Truong, and Blackwood are all seemingly well-liked by the team, though I know very little about any of them as users (other than Nokazoa. I can’t get away from that guy!). Most teams I see protecting their young prospects, but I’m less sure Brown will get a protection slot over the rest of those guys.

On defense, I think the team has to protect Scholz and Finn-Rhys as top earners in their respective classes. Tanner is also a required protection as GM. That brings the final decision down to two life-long Blizzard players in Tor Tuck and Brady McIntyre. McIntyre is younger by two seasons and carries about 400 more TPE right now. I think he’s the choice, though Tuck is a player, similar to Reg McIntyre for Manhattan, whose value is highest to their current team to keep pace toward franchise records. I tend to think ErM has to be getting close to retirement/potential recreation. Seeing Tor Tuck in any other jersey would just be… wrong. Like imagining Joe Kurczewski in a Detroit Falcons sweater. Or Esa Anrikkanen anywhere but Calgary. Or… well, you get the point. I can see Edmonton making a side deal/s with expansion teams to keep Tuck out of the crosshairs so he can retire a Blizzard boy.

Exposed: D Jon Toner, F Hiro Fujikawa (IA), G Eddy Ask Jr, F Carlos Brown, F Bo Kane, F Theo Morgan, D Tor Tuck

Who gets taken:

This is a tricky one. There’s not a ton of surefire things on this list; pretty much every player is a UFA this offseason, which comes with some risk. Tuck likely has little interest in signing anywhere other than Edmonton if they can help it. Brown is a young player about to make his SHL debut. Kane and Morgan are the big fish of this offseason (alongside Michael Scarn), so an expansion squad looking to contend right away may take a swing at one of them in hopes of getting an extension signed early. Ask and Fujikawa are likely irrelevant, and shouldn’t get much play. Jon Toner is rumored to be Cup hunting, so he may be less likely to want to join an expansion squad.

In the end, I think Carlos Brown and Bo Kane will be the choices, barring targeted side deals to protect them. I think Kane is the more likely of Morgan/Kane to sign with an expansion squad for 1C money, and Brown would be a great option for a Chicago-style “build through the draft” approach.

Minnesota

Locks:
F (4): Collin Gibbles, Noah Gallagher, Cal Labovitch, Rocco Berni
D (2): Mathias Seger, Ben van Dijk
G (1): Markus Tegernako

Bubble: D Dylan Karlsson (IA), F Boruvka Banananak (IA), F Jmac NCheese, F C.T. Carragher, D Noah Tedla, G Separa Borro

Minnesota is in the midst of a rebuild under @SpartanGibbles and most of their elite value comes from the S54 and S55 drafts, which are safely hidden from expansion. Gibbles and Gallagher are required protections as GMs, and Labovitch and Berni are the next wave of star forwards for the Minnesota hockey team. Van Dijk isn’t a top earner, but he is active and consistent, which is probably good enough for a protection slot. Seger is one of the best defensive defensemen in the league. He’s a lock, too. Tegernako is the starter. This is all pretty well-locked in.

After that’s where things get interesting. JMac NCheese isn’t the earner classmate and juniors teammate Labovitch is, but he’s active and likely a safe protection. I think Carragher, as another young and active forward, likely also gets protected.

Beyond that… it’s a lot of inactives and a developing backup goalie. I don’t think they will (or should), but I could see Minnesota, on the back of their insane group of S54 defensemen, protecting the aforementioned group of 6 forwards, 2 defenseman, and then add Borro to Tegernako to make a group of 10 (versus the 7-4-1 format). It comes down to if the MIN brass think Borro has more value then protecting some inactive/semi-active skaters in Karlsson, Banananak, and Tedla. Tedla is still a solid defenseman, even with the user disappearing a few months back. Banananak and Karlsson are 860-960 TPE players who still can fill a role for the time being while the youth movement matures in the J. In Banananak’s case, they’re better than any prospect option Minnesota will have for the next few seasons. For this task, I’ll assume they protect more players to fill out the roster and risk losing their young goalie prospect.

Exposed: D Ti-Guy Emond, F Jack Kennedy, F Shouta Aizawa (retired), G Kasperi Braulin, D Haley Knight, D Mikas Bieksa, F Thicc Cheezy, F Sterling MacTavish (IA), D Bryce Turner, G Separa Borro

Who gets taken: G Borro & Sterling MacTavish/Jack Kennedy

Borro is the most obvious choice as an active prospect goalie. If he’s exposed, he should be taken by a Chicago-style expansion. Speaking of Chicago, we have Jack Kennedy, the former 6th round pick in the S46 expansion draft of the Syndicate. He could be one of two players chosen in back-to-back expansion drafts (depending on Aleister Cain’s wishes). He’s several seasons into regression and inactive, but would be fine third line filler for a season or two. MacTavish is younger, but has much less TPE. @Legend was recently online (8/11/20), so there’s a chance he could go back to updating and be a decent value pick. Let’s be optimistic and say MacTavish comes back to semi-activity and is the pick.

If Minnesota protects Borro over Tedla, Karlsson, and Banananak, I see Tedla and Banananak getting taken in expansion, with MacTavish as a dark horse.

Winnipeg

Locks:
F (6): Goku Muerto, Nick Brain, Commander Shepard, Calogero Crudelli, Bale, Reid Sutherland
D (3): Slip McScruff, Adam Barron, Magnus LIljestrom
G (1): Strom Chamberlain

This feels right. Strom and Muerto are the GMs, so they have to be protected. Barron is one of the best young players from the S50 class, and Liljestrom, Bale, and Sutherland are the same from their groups. Brain is a lifelong Jet who just eclipsed 2k. Unless someone specifically asked to be exposed, I think teams need to keep their 1.8k+ players (Shepard, Brain, McScruff) locked in.

Bubble: F Nathan Explosion, F Yoshimitsu McCloud, D Satoshi Zigzagooney, D Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Jr.

The final picks are tough. As mentioned above, Winnipeg has a solid group of 6-3-1 to protect. After that, there are some tougher choices to make. For the final forward, it should come down to Explosion or McCloud. I found it surprising that almost every player on the Jets’ roster are signed past S56. Nathan Explosion, the acquisition from San Francisco, is the rare exception. I think, after the kind words @Muerto shared about Yoshimitsu, he grabs the last forward slot.

At defense, I admit I have a blind spot when it comes to finding Satoshi Zigzagooney overrated as a user and a player. The user will never win a Challenge Cup—the curse of Noro Wozy lives on. For me, it’s obvious to expose Zigzagooney. However, WPG brass may see it differently. Zlatan Ibrahimovic Jr. is the S51 version of Adam Barron (2nd in class, top end defenseman). He’s less than 200 TPE behind Zigzagooney and four seasons younger. This likely comes down more to locker room fit, something I don’t know and can’t see. I think they protect Ibrahimovic Jr, but wouldn’t be shocked to see Zigzagooney protected instead. Regardless, Winnipeg will lose a quality defenseman in expansion, and their prospect pool is pretty shallow right now (Pojo Biscuit is the only defensive prospect, and he’s likely at least another season away from ready for the SHL.

Exposed: F Ignatius Blunt, D Osbert Whacker, G Steven Vassallo, F Nathan Explosion, D Satoshi Zigzagooney

Who gets taken: Zigzagooney & Explosion

I might not like Wozy, but it’s the right call here. He’s fallen off as the top earner he once was, but is still a solid and active defenseman with another year on his current contract. After him, there isn’t much left. I think Explosion, even though he’s a pending UFA, is the right call.

There we go! Sixteen teams analyzed and 32 players projected to be taken. But wait! Some things have changed! Some have asked how the recent trades changed Buffalo's protections. My guess is that having hotdog protects one of the forwards from getting grabbed. Scarn is probably gone either way to test the market. My guess is that whichever defenseman Buffalo exposes is the other pick for an expansion team.

Part 5 should be coming soon with a mock draft. Smile

Quote:2351 words, ready for grading!

Henrik · 08-22-2020, 12:46 PM

Great read as always!

KlusteR · 08-22-2020, 03:35 PM

Now we're getting into the thick of things! Edmonton's been a puzzle box in my head as far as expansion goes, so it's good to see other people's input on it.

Can't wait to read part 5!

***hhh81*** · 08-22-2020, 03:46 PM

08-22-2020, 03:35 PMKlusteR Wrote: Now we're getting into the thick of things! Edmonton's been a puzzle box in my head as far as expansion goes, so it's good to see other people's input on it.

Can't wait to read part 5!

You could pitch me 5 different protection lists for EDM and I'd think they were all valid options. Tommy getting an expansion squad certainly would have simplified things a little bit.

Sean · 08-22-2020, 05:12 PM

08-22-2020, 03:46 PMhhh81 Wrote:
08-22-2020, 03:35 PMKlusteR Wrote: Now we're getting into the thick of things! Edmonton's been a puzzle box in my head as far as expansion goes, so it's good to see other people's input on it.

Can't wait to read part 5!
You could pitch me 5 different protection lists for EDM and I'd think they were all valid options. Tommy getting an expansion squad certainly would have simplified things a little bit.

I think you made a pretty good protection list and I didn't even bother applying for expansion, I didn't want to waste HOs time with my meme team!

EDM All-Time Leader in Goals, Assists and Points

Nokazoa · 08-22-2020, 09:38 PM

08-22-2020, 05:12 PMTommySalami Wrote:
08-22-2020, 03:46 PMhhh81 Wrote: You could pitch me 5 different protection lists for EDM and I'd think they were all valid options. Tommy getting an expansion squad certainly would have simplified things a little bit.

I think you made a pretty good protection list and I didn't even bother applying for expansion, I didn't want to waste HOs time with my meme team!

sand lions good brand

better than NBB

Sean · 08-22-2020, 09:46 PM

08-22-2020, 09:38 PMNokazoa Wrote:
08-22-2020, 05:12 PMTommySalami Wrote: I think you made a pretty good protection list and I didn't even bother applying for expansion, I didn't want to waste HOs time with my meme team!
sand lions good brand

better than NBB

Maybe the S66 expansion draft will be ready for my memes

EDM All-Time Leader in Goals, Assists and Points

DeletedAtUserRequest · 08-25-2020, 01:42 PM

These 4 expansion list posts were pretty good reads.
+1

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