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Dextaria · 11-04-2020, 08:52 PM

Ready for Grading

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This season the SJHN are doing season previews for each round of the SMJHL playoffs. Arkz, Shuff and I have analyzed each matchup and made our predictions while Juke will use the series stats to calculate the percent chance that each team will win the series (Example from last season’s SHL Challenge Cup final: here). These graphs will be updated daily so be sure to check back every so often to see what are your team chances!

CAROLINA KRAKEN Kraken

Shuff: A 5 game dismissal of a Colorado team that all of us here thought would be a very good series, may be a notice to both us and the league that the Kraken are very much for real. I’d love to point out their high PDO in the first round (more on that from Dex) that perhaps it was more luck that made us wrong than skill from Carolina.

Arkz: Well this was rather expected. Although there were some tight games in their series, the Kraken took care of business over the Colorado Raptors in the quarterfinals. While they started off a little slow, by game five they were blowing Colorado off the ice, which should set them up well for the next series, even if it represents a major jump in competition level. Still, Carolina has been a strong team all year and it makes sense that they will continue that standard of play.

Dex: I would say that the Carolina Kraken regained their regular season for that allowed for them to lead the Eastern conference. They averaged 3.60 goals per game with a goals against average of 2.73 in this last series against Colorado. However, Carolina had a PDO at 103.65, as well as the lower corsi between the 2 teams. It will be interesting to see if those numbers change in this coming series against Vancouver.

SHUFF’S PLAYER TO WATCH: BLUNT MAN
As a member of Vancouver’s LR I will tell you Blunt Man has absolutely destroyed us in the past, including last season’s second round sweep. His only bad game last series was the one game that Colorado won. If he is able to continue standing on his head, all of Vancouver’s extra talent won’t matter one bit.

ARKZ’S GOALIE REPORT
Blunt Man, the legend. He absolutely stole some games for the Kraken to open the series, and was looking like he might challenge Thor Odinson for top overall performance in the playoffs. After that though, he’s come back down to earth a bit with his mortal 2.72 GAA and .925 SV%. Still, Man gave notice to the league that he’s capable of standing on his head for multiple games in a series, and his opponents should savor each puck that finds the back of the net as it won’t happen often.

DEX’S SPECIAL TEAMS ANALYSIS
The Carolina Kraken’s powerplay was able to capitalize on the undisciplined Colorado Raptors team. The Raptors averaged 13.4 penalty minutes a game, allowing the Kraken to score 0.8 goals per game. The Kraken’s penalty kill was just as good at around 88.8% in this small sample size. They allowed 0.4 goals per game after taking more penalties than usual. However, I think special teams still go to the Whalers.

VANCOUVER WHALERS Whalers

Shuff: Coming off a sweep to face Carolina. We did just hear this story last season. This time the big favorite will be Vancouver, the 1 seed, they had 14 points more than the Kraken over the regular season. Their excellent defense and goaltending did not disappoint in their quarterfinal matchup with Kelowna seeding just 5 goals over the 4 game sweep.

Arkz: Kelowna did a tremendous job in beating Anaheim and getting to the second round, but after that they may have run out of steam. Vancouver swept the upstart Knights (who still had a very strong year given their rebuild), and now look to continue their dominance of the league against a very strong Kraken team. This Whalers team though remains to be fully tested, and if things start to go sideways on them we’re not exactly sure how they will respond. While knocking this train off track was probably too big a task for Kelowna, Carolina may prove to be a suitable challenger.

Dex: This Vancouver Whalers team was able to make quick work of the Kelowna Knights. They showed why they were the best defense team in the league in the regular season only allowing 1.25 goals against per game. Their offense was also dominant against a weaker Kelowna team scoring 4.5 goals per game. In my time with the Whalers, it was either swept or get swept. It’ll be interesting to see if things change this series.

SHUFF’S PLAYER TO WATCH: DANIIL NIKIFOROV
Lame, I know I said him last round as well. But Nikiforov did not show up last round, as the league leader in points got just 3. The Kraken are far better than the Knights, Vancouver will need their MVP to look like an MVP this series.

ARKZ’S GOALIE REPORT
Pick your poison! On any given night you either have veteran netminder Name Redacted, who posted a 1.67 GAA and a .918 SV% in three games, or the rookie Jon St. Ark, who had a shutout on twenty-three shots in his only appearance of the series. While Redacted is expected to get the early starts, Vancouver coaches may elect to give Name a break if he series looks to be going the distance.

DEX’S SPECIAL TEAMS ANALYSIS
It’s hard to accurately judge the Whalers’ special teams since they were up against a much lower ranked team. However, their powerplay was able to score 0.75 goals per game and their penalty stopped all of the Knights’ chances. With that, I think I’d give the penalty kill edge to the Whalers. The Whalers should also be able to capitalize on their powerplay chance when they get them though.

PREDICTIONS

Shuff: So first I’d like to boo Dex for refusing to make a prediction in the last Whaler series. Now I’d like to boo him again for not making a pick in this series. There is nothing wrong with picking your own team. Nothing at all. I’d like to say that I as well hope for a good series. The regular season series was 2-2, with goals going 18-15 for Vancouver. I’d expect a well fought long series, but of course I have to pick us to win. Vancouver in 7.

Arkz: Seems a bit anticlimactic to have the two best teams meet in the semis, but that's the way the cookie crumbles. As Shuff mentioned, the season series was somewhat inconclusive for the two teams, so we’re not exactly sure where they stand. You’ve got everything from a 6-4 Carolina win, and an 8-4 Vancouver win, to shut outs and other low scoring affairs. Still, the important thing is that Carolina may be one of the very few teams who can hang with the Whalers offensively, so this should be a very competitive series. Vancouver in 6.

Dex: As a member and captain of this Vancouver Whalers team, I once again am going to have to not comment on any predictions. Like against the Knights, I hope for a good series against the Carolina Kraken.

PREDICTION WATCH: DAY 1
CAR 1 - VAN 1
Arkz: The Blunt Man cometh. Both games in this series were closer than their final scores indicate, and it seems to be shaping up to be a true back and forth affair between the top two seeds in the playoffs. Both teams seem to be capable of pouring on the goals, so it may depend on which goaltender is hottest on that particular night.

PREDICTION WATCH: DAY 2
CAR 2 - VAN 2
Dex: These last two games saw the Vancouver Whalers and the Carolina Kraken trade 3-2 wins with each other. However, both times the Kraken had the lead and the Whalers had to try to make a comeback. Why you may ask? I got 2 words for you, Blunt Man. He as absolutely keeping the Kraken in the series and giving them the best chance to win every game. Though, both predictions by Shuff and Arkz is very much possible.

PREDICTION WATCH: DAY 3
CAR 3 - VAN 4
Shuff: So first we have to boo Dex for not making a prediction here. BOO DEX BOO. Arkz correctly had Vancouver winning, but had it in six, one game short. I was able to nail this one, picking the Whalers in seven as happened.

PRESERIES GRAPH

SERIES GRAPHS (UPDATED DAILY)

THE VANCOUVER WHALERS WIN THE SERIES

GAME 1

3 - 5

Arkz: Period two in this game was insane. Both teams scored three goals, with the lead changing a couple of times. By the end of the game though, Vancouver managed to break through and score with only two minutes left in regulation. They added an empty netter to their favor for a 5-3 result, but this was an incredibly close back and forth game from beginning to end.

GAME 2

5 - 2

Arkz: This game entered period three tied at two apiece. Carolina’s Vitek Viteoek had a hat trick on the game, scoring both Carolina goals in the first period and then adding a third in the third. Kraken Goalie Blunt Man was simply tremendous though. He saved 38 pucks on 40 shots and kept Carolina in this game even when they were out-shot by a close to two-to-one ratio. If Blunt Man plays like this and the Kraken’s offense shows even a little bit of the potency that they had in Game Two, they are going to be a real challenge to beat.

GAME 3

3 - 2

Dex: The Carolina Kraken started off the game strong with 3 unanswered goals from Wolfe, Bergen, and Hellstrom. It wasn't until the third period where the Vancouver Whalers were able to get one past Blunt Man who has been standing on his head this entire playoff series so far. Nikiforov started the rally a little over halfway into the third and Desrouleaux scored with less than 5 minutes left to go. However, the 0-3 deficit was too much to overcome as the Kraken were able to hold the Whalers off, taking a 2-1 lead in the series.

GAME 4

2 - 3

Dex: The Whalers McMahon was able to start the game off with a goal late in the first; however, the Kraken answered back with 2 goals of their own in the second. With goals from Nilsen and Wolfe, the Kraken held a 2-1 lead heading into the third and the Whalers knew they couldn't go down 1-3 in the series. They once again got their rally caps on in the third with a from Centerman IV to tie the game, and less than 2 minutes later McMahon would score the game winning goal to tie the series up. The series is now down to a best of 3.

GAME 5

1 - 5

Shuff: Whalers, giving them a 3-2 series lead. Game five is said to be pivotal and indeed it was. The Whalers put up 50 shots to Carolina’s twenty, no matter the great work of Blunt Man this was not going the Kraken’s way. Daniil Nikiforov had a hat trick on the game, a frontrunner for league MVP showed way. Johnny Shuffleboard (yay, I finally get to say me) assisted on all three.

GAME 6

5 - 2

Shuff: Carolina sending this game to a pivotal game seven. Finally a game the Kraken controlled start to finish, outshooting the Whalers 38-22. Grape Fruit had two goals on the game, a big performance with the Kraken’s back against the wall.

GAME 7

2 - 6

Shuff: Whalers, and they (we!) are moving on to the championship. And it was an unlikely hero, like seemingly all game sevens, with Wile Coyote getting a hat trick. The Buffalo prospect is not yet at his 425 cap in his third season, and centers the fourth line in Vancouver, but he came up big. Rotti Scott had a big night as well, with two goals.

ANCHORAGE ARMADA Armada

Shuff: Once again Anchorage will be called the road team despite having the better record in the regular season, with one more point than the 3 seeded Berserkers. The Armada did a great job causing Nevada to take penalties while staying out of the box themselves, with PIM/G for last series at 7.2 to 2. Staying out the box is a recipe for playoff success.

Arkz: What a strange playoffs so far for Anchorage. They started off with a difficult series against Detroit (which, while finishing 4-1 for the Armada, featured four one-goal games), and then absolutely took care of business against Nevada in what should have been a much tougher test. Anchorage even won one of those games 7-1, in game four. So really, I have no idea what to expect from this Anchorage team, but I think it’s possible that there’s a real juggernaut here that was only held back by Detroit’s Thor Odinson.

Dex: This Anchorage Armada team is scary as they are the first team this playoffs to knock out a team that finished with 60+ points. The team is averaging over 3 goals per game this playoffs and their defense and goaltending has been spectacular. I don’t see much stopping them in getting to the Four Star Cup finals; however, maybe the Berserkers will be able to stop this train.

SHUFF’S PLAYER TO WATCH: SCOOCHIE STRATTON
The goalie is still struggling, and a good Newfoundland team may be able to take advantage where Nevada and Detroit could not. Stratton faced very few shots (still less than Odinson despite playing 5 more games!), and hasn’t stopped enough of them. He ran into the only goalie worse than him in C.K. Supernaw and his team manhandled Detroit shooting wise. Don’t expect Newfoundland to be destroyed in shot per game like Detroit and don’t expect Cale Amundsen to be worse than Stratton.

ARKZ’S GOALIE REPORT
Scooooooooooch. Schoochie Stratton is 8-1-1 in the playoffs so far. He has, far and away, the most wins out of any goaltender in the playoffs, and is one of only three goaltenders with a sub-2 GAA. Where things fall a little short is the save percentage, where he’s near the bottom amongst keepers with a .902. That’s still not half bad, but it seems like Scoochie will play at the same level as his team in front of him, and so far that’s pretty good.

DEX’S SPECIAL TEAMS ANALYSIS
The special teams are the team’s forte. The team doesn’t take many penalties to begin with which really limits the other team’s powerplay. This past series showed exactly that as they averaged only 2 penalty minutes per game so the Battleborn only scored 2 powerplay goals the entire series. Then their powerplay has been lights out averaging 1.6 goals per game. The special teams advantage definitely goes to the Armada.

NEWFOUNDLAND BERSERKERS

Shuff: Defending champs are one series away from another final appearance. They out possessed Maine, with a corsi of 65.12-51.4 (57.9%) by quite a bit, but they still had a PDO of 102.95 which is high. Might they be getting a bit lucky? Perhaps. Anchorage had a near perfect PDO against the Battleborn, will it be their turn for luck? This series may well be determined more by puck luck than shots and corsi.

Arkz: Well I got that last prediction wrong. I had some misbegotten belief that Maine was going to rally and take it to the slumping Berserkers. Then Maine came in, won the first two games somewhat comfortably before dropping a 5-2 loss to the Timber. Not to be discouraged, the Berserkers hung six on the Timber the next night and then won the final game in overtime. So long story short, the Berserkers are still a great team and the defending champs. They know what it means to perform in the playoffs, and it looks like they have their sights set on getting back to the finals.

Dex: Besides the Whalers, I think the Berserkers have the second best 5-on-5 numbers so far in the playoffs. This may be because of their small sample size, but they are scoring 3.8 goals per game and have a goals against of 2.36 goals per game. Their corsi and PDO numbers look high and they have the highest shots on goal average between these 4 teams at 37.8 shots per game. If these numbers indicate anything, I think they will be able to at least put up a good fight against the Armada.

SHUFF’S PLAYER TO WATCH: MATHEW FORRESTER
With 8 points in the 5 game series against the Timber, Forrester has been the story of Newfoundland’s offense. Will that continue?

ARKZ’S GOALIE REPORT
Cale Amundson is one of the top goalies in the league, and he’s carried that level of play into the playoffs. He has a 2.36 GAA, but more importantly a .929 SV%. That puts him within the top three for playoff save percentage.

DEX’S SPECIAL TEAMS ANALYSIS
Although the Newfoundland Berserker’s special teams haven't been as good as Anchorage’s, they still have been good in their own account. The Berserker’s penalty kill in the playoffs has only allowed 1 goal so they are at a penalty kill percentage of 88.9%. Their powerplay on the worked at about 20% scoring 2 goals. However, this is a small sample size and their numbers could come back down to their regular season averages. Take out that five goals allowed game as an outlier, and Cale hasn’t given up more than two goals in a single game all playoffs.

PREDICTIONS

Shuff: Another 2-2 season series split. With no hints from a regular season matchup, I gotta pick it to go long. Ultimately I think Anchorage is the better team as a whole, so I’ll give them the win. Anchorage in 7.

Arkz: Anchorage and Anchorage as the picks from my colleagues. I think that’s fair, the Armada are a tested team and Newfoundland has gone through stretches of some painfully bad hockey. Still, I’m going to cut the defending champions some slack here and say that they’ve found a way to put it together in the playoffs. Newfoundland in 7.

Dex: This is a tough decision however I think I’m going to predict that the Armada continue their strong run and are able to defeat the Berserkers in a close series. Anchorage has just been too good in the regular season and in the playoffs as well. Anchorage in 6.

PREDICTION WATCH: DAY 1
ANC 0 - NL 2
Arkz: Well, who saw this coming? Newfoundland has jumped out to an early lead in the series, and it hasn’t really been that close. They’ve won both games by a combined 8-4 score and show no signs of slowing down. Anchorage is a talented team on paper, but they are going to need to right the ship in a hurry if they want to keep pace with the blitzing Berserkers.

PREDICTION WATCH: DAY 2
ANC 1 - NL 3
Dex: While the Carolina-Vancouver series traded 3-2 wins, the Anchorage Armada and the Newfoundland Berserkers trade 3-1 wins. The Armada were able to pull it close in game 3, bringing the series back to 1-2. However, the Berserkers defense and goaltending continues to stop the Armada offense, limiting them to 2 goals per game on average. The good news for the Armada is that their defense has been playing better as well, but their backs are now against the wall. Prediction-wise, Arkz's prediction is looking pretty good while my prediction is out of the equation now.

PREDICTION WATCH: DAY 3
ANC 2 - NL 4
Shuff: Nobody managed to nail this one, I had Anchorage in 7 and Dex had them in six, so we were way off. Arkz did have Newfoundland coming with the win but had it in seven.

PRESERIES GRAPH

SERIES GRAPHS (UPDATED DAILY)

THE NEWFOUNDLAND BERSERKERS WIN THE SERIES

GAME 1

2 - 4

Arkz: Believe it or not the Armada actually had a two-goal lead in this game. They scored twice in the opening frame early on and looked to be running away with it, but after that it was all Newfoundland, who scored four unanswered goals. Anchorage managed to pour on the shots, outshooting Newfoundland 38 to 20, but goale Cale Amundsen managed to keep the Berserkers in it after a rough start.

GAME 2

2 - 4

Arkz: This game, while it had a matching 4-2 score, was actually less close than the score would indicate. Newfoundland scored three goals in the first, with the Armada adding one. After that, Newfoundland would glide to a relatively easy victory in a game where they outshot the Armada. Probably the most interesting thing to happen after the firecracker first period, was a fight in the second between the Armada’s Bork Lazer and Newfoundland’s Renji Atake. Renji won the close fight and scored a goal that period, so that kind of tells you the kind of manhandling that is going on here so far.

GAME 3

3 - 1

Dex: An early goal by Salvatici for Anchorage; however, the Berserkers answered back quickly with a goal of their own by Gretzky. Entering the second period tied 1-1, the game continues to be tied until Rasanen the veteran puts one by Amundsen on the powerplay. Then, the Armada shut it down and Sawful is able to put in the empty netter at the end of the game on the powerplay. This was Anchorage's game and yet it still was close.

GAME 4

1 - 3

Dex: Literally 46 seconds into the game, the Newfoundland Berserkers player Matty Sandeen scored to give the team a really early 1-0 lead. The Berserkers were then able to add to the lead scoring 2 early in the second by Kierkegaard and Jutila. From there, it was basically all she wrote as the Armada were only able to get one past Amundsen on 38 shots on net. A huge loss for the Armada as the Berserkers take the 3-1 lead and are a single game away from returning to the finals.

GAME 5

4 - 3

Shuff: Anchorage to send this series to a game six. Newfoundland led this game 2-0 but was unable to shut the door. Chris de Sierra with the game winner halfway through the third. Liam Slate had two goals in the loss.

GAME 6

1 - 3

Shuff: Newfoundland, and the defending champs are 4 wins away from going back to back. Two late third period goals by Mats Marner (11 minutes in and 17 minutes in) dashed the hopes and dreams of a big Armada comeback.