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Arkz · 03-01-2021, 03:59 AM

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Hard to believe, but we are already half-way through this season! Okay, a few teams are a little more than half-way, and others lagging behind the mark (seriously, how has Colorado played five more games than Detroit?) but it's close enough. We’ve asked our panel of ‘experts’ to rank the league and compare with our rankings from earlier this season (which you can read here if curious). There’s some teams that are probably too low and some teams that are probably too high, but as always we welcome your feedback and points of view below. So, without further ado, let’s get into it! Hope you have your finest flannel and sharpest axe ready, because we are starting with the...

Stats and rankings set prior to regular season sim date of 3/1/21

12. Maine Timber
Previous Rank: 12

Shuff: Maine actually just made a trade, but I’ll start before then. They have struggled mightily for most of the first half of this season (they actually blew out Carolina once though). Their corsi against is over 70 and their corsi for is under 35. Their goal differentiation is minus 64. They have only scored 64 goals. But they just went out and traded for Walter Burke of Anaheim. Burke has 22 points on the season, which would be good enough to lead Maine. Time will tell if he can kick start a turnaround, or if this was an odd trade by a team that had no shot at going anywhere anyway.

Dex: Maine traded away a S60 2nd rounder and a S59 4th rounder for Walter Burke, a 425 TPE Active Free Agent who yes can help with this season and can stick around in the next, but I don’t think this is the play. This season is the Timber’s rebuild season and there’s no shame in rebuilding. All teams go through it eventually, but the team has to recognize that. Their leading scorers before acquiring Burke are Gatez, Tsunami, and O’Duck at 16 points in 35 games. Two of which are defenders and I think that’s saying something. Trading away picks for a player in a season where you’re very clearly dead last can cause them to potentially lose their potential 1st overall pick. I won’t say this is a terrible trade, I just think they would’ve been better holding onto their picks. At least they’ll climb the standings? Their starting goaltender Foryu is playing really well with a 0.921 save percentage.

Arkz: Maine, woof. They are the only team that is yet to attain double digit wins this season, and look to be the first team to crack 30 losses on the year. Offense has proven to be the major issue for the Timber, scoring only 64 goals on the season. There’s a certain amount of luck here, of course. The Kraken (more on them in a moment) have doubled the Maine wins in only one more game played, but have given up more goals on the year while only scoring 14 more than the struggling team from the northeast. So, this season is a bit of a wash for the Timber, one where they need to focus on S59 and beyond. There’s some good pieces here, but they need time and new blood to help get them back to where they were in the last few seasons.

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11. Carolina Kraken
Previous Rank: 9

Shuff: They haven’t quite got the start they wanted. We had them a bit higher to start, but it doesn't seem like we were way off. Their schedule was the league’s hardest over the first half, so they will get some help there. With the league’s second worst offense and second worst defense (goals wise) it makes sense to see Carolina struggle to put wins together.

Dex: The clear part to me is the Kraken’s terrible goals for and goals against so far this season. However, as Shuff mentioned, the Carolina Kraken have had the toughest schedule so far and hopefully for them it is smoother sailings to end the season. It most likely won’t push them to the top, getting a bye in the first round, but at least it’ll give Carolina more hope by finishing off the season strong. Maybe they’ll even see Wolfe pop off a little more as he is tied for 4th in goals at 14.

Arkz: Well, this has not been the way this season was supposed to go for Carolina. Sure they knew this was going to be about rebuilding, but their defense and goaltending have been very rough. Only the Anaheim Outlaws have let in more goals, but have also scored 18 more goals than the Kraken. The good news for Carolina is that they’ve played all their games against Kelowna and only have one more against Quebec City, so they’ve gotten their trials and tribulations against the two best teams in the league out of the way. Now it's going to be up to them to see if they can get some wins against the Outlaws and Whalers to help recover some of their exaggerated swagger of a mythological sea monster.

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10. Anaheim Outlaws
Previous Rank: 10

Shuff: If defense wins championships, the Outlaws certainly aren’t. The league’s worst defense by goals allowed. Let’s just say this isn’t the start they imagined for IStawp Puques, the worst save percentage among regulars. Vincent Mietitore has been a bit better in goal, we shall see how the time distribution continues over the season. They are the other half of the Walter Burke trade, and it is hard to complain about their side. Getting a few picks for a rental is a good deal.

Dex: I said it before and I’ll say it again, the Anaheim Outlaws are very clearly selling off all the assets they can for picks. The end of the season is gonna be tough for Outlaw fans as the team is gunning for the 1st overall pick. The team is opting to share the net equally between Mietitore and Puques instead of giving the 3-season veteran Mietitore the nod in net. Now with Burke gone, the team loses a top line scorer, lessening the goal scoring help for their goaltenders. It’s going to be a tough end to the season as they have one of the toughest remaining schedules. At least with their offense they can still see the likes of Kampainen and Donair light it up, and of course the potential 1st overall pick.

Arkz: The good news: Anaheim has scored a pretty good amount of goals so far this season. The bad news, they can’t seem to get the other team to stop returning the favor. The Outlaws are currently giving up a preposterous 4 goals a game. Kelowna, the top team in terms of goals against, is giving up just under 2 goals a game. So while the Outlaws are scoring close to 3 goals a game (2.7 to be exact), that doesn’t matter when you’re giving up more than a goal a game. Fortunately the Outlaws still have the rest of the season to try and plug their gaps, but I’m not sure they have the personnel to really do it, at least not this season.

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9. St. Louis Scarecrows
Previous Rank: 11

Shuff: They have been trying to outscore their defensive issues. The fourth best scoring offense and second worst scoring defense. They just come a bit short. High scoring games lead to higher margins- they have been in just 5 one goal games.

Dex: The Scarecrows have clearly identified their strengths and weaknesses so far this season and have leaned towards it. Instead of being a team, trying to force their forwards to play better defensively, the team has opted for a higher tempo offensive strategy resulting in high goal scoring for both sides. It’s clearly working in the sense that Kharlamov is leading the league in goals at 18, totaling 34 points which puts him right in the race for many awards in the J. However, although player points are up, wins have been exactly where they want it. Regardless, I think St. Louis is trending in the right direction and the team will be interesting to follow for their highflying games and players competing for individual awards.

Arkz: The Scarecrows are a better version of Anaheim. They score slightly more goals and let in slightly less. This leads to a team that’s right smack dab in the middle of the East division, doing what they can to put some distance between them and Kraken. Still, this is a surprisingly strong season for the Scarecrows, as our committee was expecting them to come out much flatter this season. Instead, their offense has looked better than it has in the last few seasons. Seriously, St. Louis is a couple games away from matching their total goals for from S56 and not too far off from S57. They still let in too many goals to really make some noise come playoff time, but still there might be something to build off of here for the Scarecrows.

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8. Vancouver Whalers
Previous Rank: T4

Shuff: Sitting at 33 points in 34 games isn’t going to cut it for a team with a lot of S56 draft class members about to be called up. While the Whalers are the first team in the next tier (the Whalers are way better than the Scarecrows), they have a ways to go. It would have made a lot more sense for them to trade for Burke than the Timber. Leading the team in scoring is Alexis Saint-Michel. Can’t say we saw that coming after the seasons KnockedOut ByOvechkin and Valtterri Kauppinen have put up recently.

Dex: Speaking of the Whalers, I truly don’t think the team is that far behind this pack of middle teams. Vancouver started with an abysmal goal differential and have been able to slowly bring it back to an even differential as the season went along. At this rate, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them jump a few spots. The team is playing a team game where veterans are paired with rookies to help them out. Although, Shuff is right. The team needs to help Kauppinen in particular find his scoring touch from the previous season.

Arkz: In case anyone is curious, the Whalers are a great way to chart the development of a team that went for broke to capture a cup. It worked out for the Whalers, but they are still in a process of rebuilding. The team now is a haphazard mix of SMJHL veterans and dynamite rookies. The Vancouver GM’s probably need another season to fully reset the clock, but until then it remains to be seen which version of Vancouver will close out the season. This team can rip off a big streak (unless Kelowna or Quebec City are in the matchup) or just completely tank. Vancouver has yet to play Kelowna this season, though they only have two games left against Quebec City. They might be able to catch Nevada and maybe Colorado, but they are going to need to figure out their identity quickly.

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7. Detroit Falcons
Previous Rank: 3

Shuff: A bit of a fall from grace. We all fell in love with the Falcons after an unexpected run at the end of last season gave them the division crown, but this season they have fallen off a bit. They have played the third hardest schedule which turns into the third easiest for the second half. Maybe that can help spur another run.

Dex: I personally would have the Falcons a lot higher compared to where they are currently. The team has only played 32 games which is 4 to 5 games less compared to higher ranked teams. This is not to say they’re going to be winning all of them; however, as they currently sit at 38 points and their goal differential speaks for themselves at +18. The Falcon are a good team relying on team scoring as a whole. I expect a solid end to the season from them with them having one of the easier schedules going forward.

Arkz: On paper, this looks like a big swing for the Falcons. However, as mentioned, not entirely sure it’s fair. The Falcons suffer from the fact they’ve played less games than anyone else on this list (5 less games than Colorado in fact), and because the East is currently seen as a top heavy division with Quebec City running things and Newfoundland giving a merry chase. But the metrics here for Detroit look good. The differential is strong. They have 5 total games against Kelowna and Quebec City remaining. And I’m still not sure how I feel about Newfoundland. So, long story short, don’t be surprised if Detroit recaptures that number three ranking in our end of season list.

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6. Nevada Battleborn
Previous Rank: 7

Shuff: At first glance I want to call them lucky. They have gotten blown out, and then they win some tight ones. A -2 goal differential for a team that is 3 games over .500 is not going to stay that way. But countering that, they have a PDO of around 99. So luck might give them more blow out wins? I’m not sure. Their schedule gets a bit easier, maybe that will help them. Raivo Helminen has 28 points to lead the team.

Dex: We’re at the halfway mark of the season and to be completely honest, this is exactly where I thought the Battleborn were going to be. They have a pretty even goal differential, relying on their offense of Helminen (28 points), Logo (24 points), and Danger (23 points) to get them some goal support while their goaltender Supernaw is putting up a respectable 0.912 save percentage. But here’s the thing, the team still needs to play their backup 12 times and their backup Leaf doesn’t look too good on paper. At least their end of season schedule is looking easier but their backup needing to play over a third of their remaining games isn’t great.

Arkz: As expected, the Battleborn are playing this season as the good, not great version we were expecting. Their differential is very slightly in the negative, and they’ve lost some tight games in overtime that puts them behind Colorado, but still this is a competitive team that can take games off anyone. The real question is if they can do it consistently enough to compete with Anchorage or Kelowna in the West. Kelowna probably not, but Anchorage is a possibility of Nevada is able to figure it out and score a few more goals.

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5. Anchorage Armada
Previous Rank: 6

Shuff: Gabe sucks. With Anchorage we have entered the next tier of teams, this one competing for the right to go to the finals without meeting Kelowna or Quebec. Sadly for Anchorage they are in Kelowna’s division which prevents them from grabbing the four or three seed, but as long as they avoid falling to the seven spot, they can line up nicely on the non-powered side of the bracket. They do have an inflated PDO (around 101) and a league average corsi. They don’t really have a top scorer (Paul Binder with 23 points). Just a very good all around team that is more than the sum of its parts.

Dex: The Anchorage Armada are playing it tight defensively, chipping away at their opponents and preventing too many goals. However, with this defensive style of play their players aren’t necessarily having the best scoring chances either. Their leading scorer is Paul Binder at 23 points as Shuff has mentioned. From the looks of it, their strength of schedule was already not too tough so far and it’s only going to get easier from here it seems. Great for them especially since their starting goaltender Tendy has a 0.931 save percentage. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Armada climb our standings at the very least.

Arkz: The defending champs! As expected in a cup winner, there was going to be some regression. We’ve seen Anchorage play a bit better than expected, sporting their familiar brand of defense-first hockey. They’ve given up the second-fewest goals so far this season, though they’ve also played the second-fewest amount of games so that will probably change once we get into the new round of games. Offense, as is the case for much of the West, is the real issue for the Battleborn. To put it into perspective, the Armada have scored one-less goal than the offensively-challenged Whalers so far this season, in only one less game. Anchorage will probably finish top-3 in the West, but this team doesn’t have the same mystique about them as the S57 crew did.

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4. Colorado Raptors
Previous Rank: T4

Shuff: Came in the preseason rankings as tied for fourth with the Whalers, and boy have the two teams separated since. Sadly for Colorado, luck may just have been a factor. They have a minus 12 goal differential, and a PDO of around 100.5. Do they deserve to be this high? Well they have been winning games. Their leading scorers have 18 points. Josh Dolphin was a monster last season, has anyone found him? Just 17 points. Given a choice right now, I’d rather play the Raptors than the Armada, but the voters disagreed with me here.

Dex: I completely agree with Shuff. The Colorado Raptors may be sitting uncomfortably at 3rd in the Western Conference, but the underlying numbers for me suggest a steep fall off could happen. Their negative goal differential, tougher end of the season schedule, and lack of goal scoring are all red flags to me. The team is relying heavily on their goaltender Rosejac with a 0.921 save percentage to steal them games but if that doesn’t happen, I’m not too sure what the Raptors will do.

Arkz: So, Anchorage should probably be here instead of Colorado, but that’s what happens when the committee votes at different times over the week. Still, while the Raptors remain a top-5 team in the league, they have some serious questions to ask themselves. They’ve played the most games in the league, but Nevada could leapfrog them in the standings without too much effort. The issue for Colorado has been one of goals against. Just too many going the other way, even with Rosejac playing out of his mind. As Dex mentioned with that save percentage stat, its an issue of shots. Colorado has to improve their puck possession if they are to distance themselves from the other half of the West division and lock themselves up behind the Knights.

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3. Newfoundland Berserkers
Previous Rank: 8

Shuff: The Berserkers are always here. I don’t get it, will they ever rebuild? Last season was maybe the start of one, then they won a playoff round. Now here they are in the top 3. Ric Charlesworth and Bas O'Bigbers both top of the league in scoring (33 and 34 points) and Evgeni Petrov has been great in net in limited action. I’d play him more with the way he’s been going, a GAA under 2 and turning away .913 of the shots he’s faced.

Dex: The Newfoundland Berserkers are a team of actives. Their only inactives as of now is Gervais and he’s at 303 TPE. This puts them on par with Kelowna in terms of actives on their roster. Plus, the team has a number of rookies and they completely nailed 7 of 8, speeding up their rebuild process. This is in addition to their 6 S58 players basically reaching their cap and none of their players. The combination of active players for the most part, growing as a team, really pushed them far this season and I expect them to continue to be at the top. Plus, with Quebec’s schedule looking tougher, the Berserkers may even put up a good fight for top of the conference.

Arkz: Newfoundland is what happens when you have a team that is “good enough” talent-wise, and then mix that with some strategic wizards on the coaching staff. This is a team that’s figured out what it takes to play at a high level, and while they don’t have the pieces they need to dominate the league the way Quebec and Kelowna have so far, they aren’t that far behind. They sport a ridiculous +41 goal differential, and are one of the only three teams to score more than 110 goals so far this season. They are giving Quebec City the challenge for first in the East that Citadelles never felt last season. When it comes time for the playoffs, this team could make a deep run and I wouldn’t be surprised if they make the finals over Quebec City or Kelowna, depending on the seeding.

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2. Quebec City Citadelles
Previous Rank: 1

Shuff: The Citadelles fall a spot here, but in the beginning we all said this would be the strong side of the bracket semi-final. Each team has just 5 games where they didn’t record a point, the Citadells with four where they only got one to the Knights one. Zdenko Bernak leads the league in points. Mat Smith and Tyler Ward both good in net. I said it last season and turned out correct, the defense is still the Citadelles “weakness” if you can call it that.

Dex: The Citadelles looked like world beaters at the beginning of the season. They were undefeated for 6 games and looked like not much could stop them from being at the top of the league once more. Over half their team are plus players above +20 and Beranek leads the league as Shuff has mentioned. They certainly are a good team, but one team is better. If Quebec wants to reclaim that top spot they need to tighten up defensively or really up their offensive output.

Arkz: Quebec City lose a spot, but its not really their fault. They are having a slightly more pedestrian season compared to S57, but they are still leading their division by 11 points and actually lead the league in overall points (though they’ve played two more games than Kelowna). Quebec also hasn’t given up too many goals either, which is impressive given that they are playing in the offense-happy East division. Still, it’s plain to see that this team isn’t the world-beaters that they were last season, but I wonder if that will actually help them in the playoffs. Quebec City last season skated cleanly through the season and really weren’t truly tested till that semi-final matchup against Anchorage. Now, this team is having to work for it a bit more and who knows if that will give them the tools necessary to finally get over the edge.

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1. Kelowna Knights
Previous Rank: 2

Shuff: The Knights have just been unreal this season. Cian McFelter and Kynwyl Pearce lead the team in scoring, but this has not been a two-man show. Impressive goaltending from Damien Vertigo is probably the most impressive part of this team (GAA of 1.67 and SV of .922), but this has been a team wide showing. They and Qubecc both had easier starts to the season schedule wise, the two of them will go from the 2 easiest schedules to the second hardest (QCC) and the fifth (KEL). Does the rest of the league catch up to them? Do they slow down? Only time will tell.

Dex: Kelowna loaded up at the beginning of the season knowing they’ll have a strong chance at contending and they certainly weren’t wrong. The team has let in the fewest goals (thanks to Vertigo’s 0.922 save percentage) and their scoring is on par with the Citadelles. However, the Knights appear to be scoring more as a team whereas the Citadelles have a steeper drop off in points from their top line to their bottom line (but not by much). The two teams really are neck-in-neck right now to me with the Knights only getting the slight edge for their goaltending. It will certainly be a good battle to end the season.

Arkz: I was going to just put a bunch of gifs from the movie “A Knight’s Tale,” instead of doing a write-up. You know, the jousting scenes when one knight sends the other flying in a glorious shower of shattered lances and mud. But this team deserves a bit more than that, and I don’t get paid for just pasting gifs into these write-ups. Kelowna is the best team in the league, and have been for a while. The talent is fairly similar with Quebec City, and it's no surprise to see Kelowna at the top of their division. They’ve allowed a ludicrous 64 goals so far this season. As mentioned, that’s 1.9 goals against a game. Maine is only scoring 1.6 goals a game. To provide further context, that Anchorage team last season that was so dominant defensively allowed 2.2 goals a game. Now, we’re only halfway through and there’s time for Kelowna to regress back a bit, but I wouldn’t count on it. This team is a rock, and when they hit, they hit hard.

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And that's it everyone! Overall, seems like we have three teams that the committee feels strongly about at the top, a couple at the bottom, and then a whole bunch of questions in the middle. Fortunately, we still have roughly 33 games left for each team to figure out if they have what it takes to challenge for the Four-Star Cup this season. Are we destined for a semifinal matchup between Kelowna and Quebec City? Will Newfoundland continue to scheme their way to the top? Can Colorado, Anchorage, Detroit, Vancouver, St. Louis, or Nevada figure themselves out enough to make a deep run? Time will tell, and we'll be sure to be there to cover it. Thanks for reading and we'll see you next time!

Word count: 4,328. Please split between @mee, @Dextaria, and myself.

MCP_ · 03-01-2021, 04:07 AM

Great article, but Shuff bad

***Dextaria*** · 03-01-2021, 04:08 AM

Quick edit before I get called out for it: Nevada needs to play their backup 8 times. I confused the SHL and J backup numbers. Regardless, 8 games with a <200 TPE backup is going to be tough.

Arkz · 03-01-2021, 04:12 AM

03-01-2021, 04:07 AMMCP_ Wrote: Great article, but Shuff bad

Big if true.

MCP_ · 03-01-2021, 04:25 AM

03-01-2021, 04:12 AMArkz Wrote:
03-01-2021, 04:07 AMMCP_ Wrote: Great article, but Shuff bad
Big if true.

It is true, so, therefore, it is big

SlashACM · 03-01-2021, 04:30 AM

Colorado sucks

DeletedAtUserRequest · 03-01-2021, 04:53 AM

#Killowna

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*Carpy48* · 03-01-2021, 08:26 AM

Go

!

KenitohMenara · 03-01-2021, 09:01 AM

It is not over, Whaler nation! The team is getting better and getting stronger all the time. Newfoundland, Kelowna, all the rest of ya... We'll see you in the playoffs!

Evok · 03-01-2021, 09:44 AM

03-01-2021, 04:08 AMDextaria Wrote: Quick edit before I get called out for it: Nevada needs to play their backup 8 times. I confused the SHL and J backup numbers. Regardless, 8 games with a <200 TPE backup is going to be tough.

The back up game number is also 12 in the smjhl. Its only more in the shl in case of active back up cap relief.