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Symmetrik · 02-09-2022, 10:46 PM

Well, it doesn't seem like that long ago that S62 players were drafted in to the SHL, but here we are with the class leader surpassing 700 TPE now. In my mind, that seems like as good a time as any to check out how all the players are doing. Mikko Rashford has cracked into a new tier of contract minimums, when the time comes, as the 700 TPE tier brings a 3 million minimum paycheck. Many other players will meet him in that tier before anyone needs to sign a new contract, but it's a good milestone regardless.

This draft was stacked, not gonna lie. If we look for a "bust" we could only find some in the 2nd round really, and even then it's hard to call 2nd rounds busts because in most cases you have far less certainty in the 2nd round anyway. Any 1st round "busts" earn quotation marks around the term because they really aren't, but the class is so stacked that in terms of TPE they've fallen down the rankings (but are still close overall). The top 24 players in TPE are separated by just 100 TPE.

I'm going to go over the rankings in the order of TPE, cause I used the SHL Analytics Draft Class Tracker and then added in the extra data myself for comparing to draft position. So my list is sorted my TPE.

#1 - Mikko Rashford (#2 SHL) (#5 SMJHL) - Aurora

#2 - Christian Kinsinger (#14 SHL) (#34 SMJHL) - Aurora

#3 - Ben Jammin (#7 SHL) (#3 SMJHL) -

#4 - Rebecca Montagne (#16 SHL) (#25 SMJHL) - Aurora

#5 - Brick Wall (#18 SHL) (#38 SMJHL) -

The top 5 in TPE belongs solely to the Winnipeg Aurora and the Montreal Patriotes. You would initially say that makes a lot of sense, because they both had quite a few early picks and a lot of first round picks overall in this draft. All 5 of these players were 1st round selections, but only 2 of them came in the top 10. 2 of these players are goalies, which in part explains why they were taken lower down in the 1st round - there's only so many starting goalie spots, so unless you're going to actively need a starter in the next 2-4 seasons, it's not worth spending a high pick. Maybe in a shallower draft, where you could then flip the goalie to another team (but in that case you might as well just flip the pick before you make it). Still, 5 other teams and several picks came before defenseman Kinsinger was taken at 14th, so you would have hoped to see a few of those other top 13 picks higher up on the charts. All 5 of these players outperformed their draft position in TPE ranking.

#6 - Jay O'Neil (#5 SHL) (#33 SMJHL) - Aurora

#7 - Yannick Svoboda (#17 SHL) (#23 SMJHL) -

#8 - Shoyo Hinata (#10 SHL) (#36 SMJHL) - Blizzard

#9 - Spack Jarrow (#4 SHL) (#13 SMJHL) - Aurora

#10 - Zayne Dangle (#6 SHL) (#22 SMJHL) -

More Aurora and another Patriote find themselves in the top 10 of TPE. This starts to add up as we see 4 of those other top 10 picks, which the Aurora and Patriotes combined to have 5 of. The Panthers here snagged a really nice pickup in Svoboda - a forward, so no excuses on being available that late, not like the reasons we could point out with the goalies in the top 5. We have yet to see the 1st overall pick in either draft, which were 2 different players, and that's quite interesting. More interesting is the SMJHL draft positions. In all of the top 10 in TPE, only 2 players were selected in the top 10. Only 3 were taken in the whole 1st round. 4 players who were draft in the 30s in the SMJHL are now top 10 in their class in TPE. Sticking with SMJHL - there's only 6 different SMJHL teams in the top 10 in TPE. The Beserkers, Knights, Raptors, and Elk all have 2 players in the top 10 (including both the Beserkers and Knights making those 2 players a fearsome defensive duo).

It's also worth noting, while I don't list it here, I did keep an eye on the IIHF nations for these players - 5 of the top 10 in TPE are members of the Finnish national squad.

#11 - Aksel Fiske (#1 SHL) (#14 SMJHL) - Rage

#12 - Dirty Boots (#19 SHL) (#19 SMJHL) - Renegades

#13 - Paul Koivu (#8 SHL) (#2 SMJHL) - Rage

#14 - Sconnie McHits (#3 SHL) (#4 SMJHL) - Argonauts

#15 - Eddie Creller (#13 SHL) (#30 SMJHL) - Dragons

There's our #1 pick from the SHL draft! Aksel Fiske is ranked 11th in TPE, but make no mistake - the TPE difference between #2 and #11 is only 20. That's like, you could explain half that difference away with fantasy luck, essentially (or skill, ?). We also see the 3rd and 8th overall picks, which means every single top 10 pick except #9 overall are in the top 15 for TPE. You also have #13 and #14, so really 11 of the top 15 picks are in the top 15 in TPE. That's pretty damn good, and why I feel safe in saying no one is actually a bust, despite currently being well their draft position in TPE. Everyone in the top 15 in TPE is also in the top 20 in picks, so currently it's not even that much of a steal anywhere. That goes to show that GMs did a pretty good job, but also how damn STACKED this class actually was.

#16 - Wendolene Ramsbottom (#23 SHL) (#32 SMJHL) - Argonauts

#17 - Tommy Tightpants (#12 SHL) (#11 SMJHL) - Aurora

#18 - Borje Samuelsson (#31 SHL) (#15 SMJHL) - pride

#19 - Viktor Krunk (#9 SHL) (#6 SMJHL) - Inferno

#20 - Alexander Mackenzie (#29 SHL) (#47 SMJHL) - Inferno

We've got our first player from outside the top 20 draft picks to be in the top 20 TPE wise. And then they're 1 upped immediately! Ramsbottom was taken at #23 in the draft and has worked their way up to #16 in TPE, but to show them up Borje Samuelsson went 31st!!! in the SHL draft and is 18th in TPE. Alexander Mackenzie as well, drafted 29th is 20th in TPE. I think this is where we really start to see some cracks in terms of identifying the depth talent in the draft. Players are taken much later than they probably should have been. And we'll see some players in the mid 20s in draft picks who maybe shouldn't have gone that high, but also are still good players. Our last player from the top 10 picks sits here at #19 in TPE. Again though, I would like to point out, that #20 in TPE is still 627 TPE. For comparison, that would rank 24th in TPE in S61. Who have had an entire season of earning more!

#21 - Jeff Larsson (#15 SHL) (#28 SMJHL) - Rage

#22 - Stephan Gill (#27 SHL) (#41 SMJHL) - syndicate

#23 - Jaeger Jones (#11 SHL) (#7 SMJHL) - Aurora

#24 - Vadim Askerov (#47 SHL) (UDFA SMJHL) -

#25 - Connor O'Byrne (#43 SHL) (#20 SMJHL) -

Now this is some good shit. We have our first SMJHL free agent of the class drafted to the SHL, and not only that but they were drafted waaaaaay below their TPE rank. One of the biggest movers, Askerov is 23 ranks above their SHL draft pick. O'Byrne ranks right after and also is pretty high up on the positive movement list. Both stellar draft picks by the Montreal Patriotes. Montreal had some high picks as well, but their really hit on late picks and that's lead to them having a great S62 class. With Jones and Larsson showing up on the list now, that makes everyone in the top 20 draft picks top 25 in TPE, except for pick #20. That's pretty damn accurate picking. Overall accuracy is 20/25 in TPE were picked in the top 25. Also, again, these are not low TPE players or anything. O'Byrne at 25th is the first player under 600 TPE on this list, at 592.

#26 - Frederico Von Schnicktenburg (#41 SHL) (#24 SMJHL) - Aurora

#27 - Kentaro Kikuchi (#38 SHL) (#55 SMJHL) - Renegades

#28 - Jesper Aittokallio (GM PICK) (#1 SMJHL) - Rage

#29 - Cup Noodle (#20 SHL) (UDFA SMJHL) - Steelhawks

#30 - Ignaz Pleyel (#22 SHL) (#29 SMJHL) - Rage

Now this group is pretty interesting. Finally we see our #1 pick of the SMJHL draft making the list in the TPE ranks. It was the General Manager of the Manhattan Rage. I understand GMs get autopicked (Aittokallio was technically picked at #66) but I think the idea is GMs generally outperform that draft pick Tongue

In this case the class is stacked, but from a GM you'd probably hope to see them ranked higher than 28th. We also see our final pick of the top 20 slide into the list at #29. Noodle is not only our last pick of the top 20, but they were also the highest drafted SMJHL UDFA. They've been surpassed in TPE in that regard now by Askerov, and maybe that is more telling than their overall rank.

#31 - Alexej Komarek (GM PICK) (UDFA SMJHL) - Platoon

#32 - Gordie Goodenough (#28 SHL) (#50 SMJHL) - Patriotes

#33 - Lenny Hawk (#30 SHL) (UDFA SMJHL) - Forge

#34 - Vasily Arkhangelsky (#21 SHL) (#12 SMJHL) - Rage

#35 - Akashi SixNine Jr (#44 SHL) (#61 SMJHL) - Steelhawks

#36 - Theo Berglund (#26 SHL) (#51 SMJHL) - Monarchs

#37 - Lewis HamiltonIsBlessed (#88 SHL) (#64 SMJHL) -

#38 - Ezra Wong (#36 SHL) (UDFA SMJHL) - pride

#39 - Velky Muz (#35 SHL) (#59 SMJHL) - Rage

#40 - Vin Bangsa-Wamy (#34 SHL) (#10 SMJHL) - Rage

Now THAT is some movement! The Panthers robbed everyone blind it seems when they got Hamilton at #88 overall. How? I have no idea. And while he's not a world beater, getting ANY kind of player with SHL potential at pick 88 is a dream. The Platoon also snag a GM pick late in this one, but much like the Rage with Aittokallio, you want a little bit more than 31st in TPE from a GM player. We also see some high SMJHL draft picks that went much later in the SHL, and are even lower than their SHL pick in the TPE rankings. And honestly, since this class is so deep, that's pretty much exactly what you want from a high SMJHL draft pick. Everyone here is above the 425 TPE SMJHL cap, so they are all providing maximum benefit to their SMJHL teams on the ice. But they are not so great at earning TPE that they will be ready for the SHL soon. That means they are likely to spend as much time in the SMJHL contributing at the maximum possible level. If their LR activity is good, that's the SMJHL team's dream.

#41 - Vincent Catalano (#42 SHL) (#60 SMJHL) - Rage

#42 - Malach Skoda (#33 SHL) (#16 SMJHL) - Patriotes

#43 - Pope Coswi (#45 SHL) (#42 SMJHL) - Blizzard

#44 - Merlin Metzler (#39 SHL) (UDFA SMJHL) - Renegades

#45 - SD Core (#57 SHL) (#26 SMJHL) - Blizzard

These are the last 5 players at or above 425 TPE. All of them have reached the cap in the SMJHL, which is pretty strong considering were are all the way down at player #45 in TPE. There's more slower earners who could even potentially hit that mark. Vincent Catalano is definitely the weirdest player on this list so far. They either are or are not at 438 TPE and maybe or maybe not are retired. They posted a retirement, then unretired. They knew they'd have the 15% TPE penalty. The GM of the Scarecrows put the TPE loss in their update thread. But the update was never processed. The player page is now in the retired player section. But they unretired? We will never know where the mystery of Vincent Catalano lies.

#46 - Alex Kidd (#62 SHL) (UDFA SMJHL) - Rage

#47 - Marek Skoda (#32 SHL) (#21 SMJHL) - Patriotes

#48 - Rafael Boeck (#70 SHL) (#57 SMJHL) - Forge

#49 - Recently Tired (#49 SHL) (#40 SMJHL) - Inferno

#50 - Brady Bertrand (#24 SHL) (#77 SMJHL) - Rage

#51 - Aldo Huber (#46 SHL) (#31 SMJHL) - syndicate

#52 - Trevor Malone (#51 SHL) (UDFA SMJHL) - Aurora

#53 - Anzelms Krastins (#25 SHL) (#39 SMJHL) - Wolfpack

#55 - Ka Chow (#37 SHL) (#9 SMJHL) - Panthers

#58 - Lonely Stagan (#40 SHL) (#35 SMJHL) - Stars

#59 - Rodrigo Rivic (#58 SHL) (#27 SMJHL) - Rage

#60 - Skating Dino (#52 SHL) (#63 SMJHL) - Wolfpack

#65 - Lord Skrolk (#55 SHL) (#44 SMJHL) - syndicate

#66 - Tuuka Pack (#48 SHL) (#76 SMJHL) - Blizzard

#67 - Jacques Lilcoque (#54 SHL) (UDFA SMJHL) - Aurora

#70 - Alicia Melchiott (#50 SHL) (#46 SMJHL) - Patriotes

There's a few interesting tidbits on the remaining players:

Recently Tired is the only player who was drafted in the SHL at he same pick as their current TPE rank. Everyone else has since moved either up or down.
Unlike Catalano, Anzelms Krastins DID actually retire, and remained that way.
Ka Chow is not the SMJHL dream, drafted at 9th overall, they failed to even reach the 350 TPE cap.
What a difference 1 pick can make. Toronto and Nevada both dream about what may have been, as they picked Lonley Stagan in the SHL and SMJHL drafts at #40 and #35, respectively. At 39th in the SHL draft, Merlin Metzler went to Texas. At 34th in the SMJHL draft, Christian Kinsinger went to Kelowna. Ouch.
Lord Skrolk is the only player from this draft class currently playing in the SHL permanently. Some goaltenders may get called up occasionally for 1 or 2 games, but Skrolk is the only one full time in the SHL so far.
RIP Emi