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oknom · 07-30-2023, 09:33 PM

Let’s take a predictive look at how the S73 roster for the Detroit Falcons compares to last year’s team.

For the SMJHL S72, Detroit finished 20-43-3 for a total of 43 points in the standings. That was good enough for . . . . 13th place in the J. Obviously the team would like to improve upon that result, but also see some post season success. Last season’s Falcons suffered a first-round sweep against the Carolina Kraken. And let’s not forget another important change, two new GM’s! Aephino and trashae take over the Falcons for S73. Here is where S73 ended up:

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Here we can see the ending roster, sorted by TPE applied. The players in grey had sadly fallen inactive in the locker room. There is hope that they could be brought back with Detroit style pizza and Vernors, but that’s up to the S73 staff to manage. What the graphic shows is that a majority of the roster was made up of these types of players: still able to contribute but not likely to progress their skill. Now that doesn’t exactly mean these players can’t score and help get wins. It just means they have a known ceiling, barring a comeback. Since this Detroit team finished 13th, that’s a key area going into S73.

Breaking down the S72 roster a little more, that comes out to about 53% of skaters being inactive at season’s end. With that large a chunk of the roster inactive, we are still going to see most of the team’s production come from inactive players. Those inactive players accounted for 42% of the team’s points over the season. It wouldn’t surprise anyone reading this to find out the players active in the locker room are contributing more overall than the inactive ones, but hey now the numbers back it up more! Last point to make here before moving on is that the 58% of team points that came from active players cannot all be relied on for last year. In fact, only 33% of the team’s points were scored by active players who we expect to be on the S73 roster. 4 Chainz and Billy Herrington both received their call ups to the SHL this year and won’t be there when the puck drops on S73. Good luck in New Orleans and Atlanta, boys!
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So we’ve established half of the roster was made up of inactives, and two top point producing players have graduated to the SHL. Time to hatch some new Falcons and teach them how to hunt for points! The SMJHL entry draft netted the team 5 young birds, eager to contribute to the S73 rebuild. Prince Marius, Mephistopheles Morgonstjärna, Kenny Omega, and Mike Badcock will be finding their places on the forward depth chart. The blue line adds Gavin Harrison, and waivers pickup Dunkler Sowerwine. But what do fresh faced 155 TPE players contribute that prior season’s 155 TPE inactive players couldn’t? Progress! Growth! Vigor!

Being a little liberal with the TPE applied numbers, these new additions are already pushing the overall talent level of Detroit to be higher than where the team was last year. S72’s average defenseman for the Falcons was about 186 TPE, and the average forward about 253. Combining those, the average player was 226 across the entire roster. Plugging in those 5 skaters from the draft class plus our waiver addition ups the average defenseman to 237 overall (!) but drops the average forward a couple points down to 251 overall. The average skater on the S73 roster is up a whopping 12 points to 235 applied TPE.

That works out to about a 4% increase on average outside of the crease for the Falcons. What does that mean for the S73 standings? Is that even good for finishing one spot higher at 12th in the J? Can the Falcons stay out of the cellar and punch a legitimate ticket to the playoffs this year? If the team can keep those 6 additions out of that grey inactive zone, they keep growing. The team keeps growing, and the wins will keep growing.

***Aephino*** · 08-01-2023, 07:39 PM

The wins will definitely keep growing skreeeee

*CptSquall* · 08-04-2023, 12:46 PM

Approved, +5 TPE to @oknom

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