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***FuzzSHL*** · 10-14-2023, 04:43 PM

With another week come and gone in the SHL world, we have now reached the halfway mark for most teams in their schedules. By this point in the season, we know what most teams are and aren't. With this week's post, I'll actually be giving a little insight not only into the process that @esilverm and myself came up with to determine the ratings, but also a little dive into each team and their performance through the season thus far. Let's get right into it!

The System

Any sort of ranking system needs a starting point. With how the SHL works and how teams are built, the most logical starting point for a team's strength is by using the team's TPE. Sure, we could have started a system close to that of the ELO system that many video games and chess use where everyone starts at the same rating, but I think it is easy enough to understand that not every team is created equal, and any system that starts every team at an equal rating will take far too long to find stability. With that being said, we didn't want to use total TPE, which would unfairly boost teams like Toronto who carry extra players. So we instead took the average TPE of each position group (Forwards, Defense, Goalies) and applied a weight to those position groups based on the perceived importance of those position groups to a team's success. The weights aren't major, but do shift the numbers around a little bit. Then we took those positional averages to make a total average, and used that as our base rating.

Now that we had a base rating to work with, we wanted to figure out some way that the team's rating would adjust based on game results in the sim. This sort of system would reward teams who perform well and find ways to win while punishing teams who can't seem to figure it out. This doesn't mean that this system is the "end all, be all" of rating systems and that whoever is top of this rating system will be the bonafide champion. But, in my opinion, there are teams out there who find ways to get more out of their roster than expected, and some teams who find ways to underperform with a roster that looks poised to contend. This rating system aims to "properly" rate teams based on performance as opposed to just going off of "Well this team has a ton of TPE so they must be the favorites." ANYWAYS, how do we adjust for game results? What gets taken into account? Well, without giving the specific adjustments for each of these results, I will point out what we do take into account in terms of game results.

1) Wins improve rating, losses decrease rating
2) Home losses decrease extra rating, Away wins increase extra rating
3) Home wins and away losses do not affect rating aside from the base win/loss adjustment
4) Wins against higher rated opponents increase extra rating, losses against worse teams decrease extra rating
5) Losses against higher rated opponents do not hurt as much as normal losses do, and wins against a worse team does not increase rating as much as a normal win does
6) For points 4 and 5, there is a minimum rating difference threshold that needs to be met before those bonuses/penalties are levied. Closely rated teams will not get a bonus or penalty on top of the default win/loss adjustment
7) Games going to overtime receive an automatic penalty to rating adjustment. This is a point that may change in future updates, but is currently in effect
8) Games going to a shootout receive an automatic penalty to rating adjustment
9) The 10 most recent games played are weighted more heavily than games played prior

Now, this is a lot to take into account, but, Silver and I think its all worth to take into account.

One final note about the actual rating system. If you paid attention to the title of this post, you probably know what this is. Silver and I have decided to call our rating system the Filver Score, and this will be the term that I use from this point on when talking about a team's game-adjusted rating.

The Rankings

With that out of the way, let's get into this week's Power Rankings! We'll start at the bottom and work our way to the top.

20. Montreal Patriotes

(=)
Current Filver Score: -128
Previous Filver Score: 165
There is no question about who the league's worst team is this season. Montreal currently sits as the only team in the league without 5 wins and the road does not look easier moving forward. Patriotes fans might want to close their eyes, we'll let them know when its safe to look.

19. Manhattan Rage Rage

(=)
Current Filver Score: 202
Previous Filver Score: 210
A slight improvement over last season as the Rage no longer find themselves at the bottom of the league table, just close to it. They have their fair share of struggles on the ice, but their pipeline should give the organization and fans something to look forward to.

18. Calgary Dragons Dragons

(=)
Current Filver Score: 274
Previous Filver Score: 318
The first Pacific Division team on this list is still finding their footing in their rebuild process, and to this point is successful in their attempt to tank. The only issue is, well..

17. Seattle Argonauts

(-2)
Current Filver Score: 359
Previous Filver Score: 735
The second Pacific Division team to make this list is also in the midst of a rebuild. Still, the Argonauts had a rough week which saw their Filver Score practically get cut in half. Not ideal.

16. San Francisco Pride pride

(=)
Current Filver Score: 639
Previous Filver Score: 602
The Pride actually did have a good week in regards to their Filver Score, but it wasn't quite enough to get them a bump in the rankings. Unlike the two Pacific Division rivals before them, the Pride are a little further along in their rebuild and likely won't find themselves this close to the bottom of the rankings in the coming seasons.

15. Toronto North Stars Stars

(-1)
Current Filver Score: 640
Previous Filver Score: 788
The North Stars find themselves in a more favorable position than they have been in previous seasons. Despite a fall from last week, fans of the North Stars should be happy seeing the progress that has been made in the big picture. Much like San Francisco, the North Stars should not be down for long.

14. Tampa Bay Barracuda

(+3)
Current Filver Score: 766
Previous Filver Score: 525
A good week for Tampa Bay sees them get a 200 point bump in their Filver Score, and a rankings jump of 3. Good trends for a team that's been riding the struggle bus as of late.

13. New Orleans Specters

(=)
Current Filver Score: 964
Previous Filver Score: 949
Another team that seems to have found their place in the rankings, New Orleans is a team trying to figure out which direction they're going to be heading moving forward. For now, though, they're still a team that can give contenders a scare on a good day.

12. Baltimore Platoon Platoon

(-6)
Current Filver Score: 1075
Previous Filver Score: 1279
Our first team with a Filver Score above 1000, Baltimore actually has the biggest drop in the rankings from last week. The Platoon still have the talent to get right back to where they were last week, but disappointing results have dropped them out of the top-10.

11. Los Angeles Panthers

(-1)
Current Filver Score: 1143
Previous Filver Score: 1096
The Panthers seem to be struggling to replicate the success they had last season, hovering right around the .500 mark. A decent week sees their rating improve, but losses against struggling teams keep them lower in the rankings than they expected to be.

10. Minnesota Monarchs

(+2)
Current Filver Score: 1234
Previous Filver Score: 985
The Monarchs seem to be on the cusp of truly breaking out. A franchise that hasn't seen success in a long time, it seems like they may be turning the corner sooner rather than later. A good week brings them into the top-10.

9. Texas Renegades

(+2)
Current Filver Score: 1257
Previous Filver Score: 1025
Texas, after a slow start to the season, seems to be finding their way back to the success they had last season. Trailing only Winnipeg in the Central Division, if the Renegades can sort out their woes on the road, they could pose a challenge to the Aurora for the division title.

8. Hamilton Steelhawks

(-1)
Current Filver Score: 1278
Previous Filver Score: 1274
Hamilton saw their rating change the least over the course of the week, and despite a drop in the rankings, the Steelhawks are likely fairly happy with their place in the standings given expectations. The Steelhawks aren't what they used to be, but it might not be long before they're giving the league hell once again.

7. Chicago Syndicate

(+1)
Current Filver Score: 1311
Previous Filver Score: 1210
"When will Chicago drop off?" is a question many people seem to be asking, and the Syndicate continue to find ways to keep themselves competitive and in the conversation as a dark horse Cup candidate. A good sim week sees them trade places with Hamilton in the rankings despite each other's respective spot in the league standings.

6. Winnipeg Aurora Aurora

(-2)
Current Filver Score: 1364
Previous Filver Score: 1721
What a rough week for the defending champions. Despite wins against some of the league's top talent, big losses to Minnesota, Manhattan, and Hamilton really hurt their Filver Score. 6th is realistically a bit low for this squad, but after allowing 16 goals in their previous three games, they've got some questions heading into the second half of the season.

5. Buffalo Stampede

(=)
Current Filver Score: 1419
Previous Filver Score: 1579
A rough week all things considering, the Stampede still find themselves in the league's top five. Remember that question I asked about Chicago? It even more-so applies to Buffalo. Tomen and the Stampede continue to find ways to stay competitive without mortgaging their future.

4. Atlanta Inferno Inferno

(+5)
Current Filver Score: 1585
Previous Filver Score: 1127
Our biggest movers in the positive direction, the Inferno are as hot as their name with only one loss in their previous ten games. Their true strength will be put to the test this week, with a streak of eight games upcoming before they face a team outside the league's top-12.

3. Philadelphia Forge Forge

(=)
Current Filver Score: 1740
Previous Filver Score: 1729
The Forge continue to take care of business, and the first team on this list to have less than ten combined losses and overtime losses. Their Filver Score places them right outside "true contender" status, but they have rightfully separated themselves from the pack below.

2. Edmonton Blizzard

(-1)
Current Filver Score: 2058
Previous Filver Score: 1914
Make no mistake, Edmonton dropping from first to second is no slight against them. Unsurprisingly, they have had the league's easiest schedule in the league up until this point, but their unplayed schedule would rank as the 12th hardest. Their Filver Score places them in "Cup Favorite" status, along with our first place team, and I would be surprised if the Blizzard did not find themselves in the Western Conference Finals yet again this season.

1. New England Wolfpack

(+1)
Current Filver Score: 2208
Previous Filver Score: 1771
A massive week for the Wolfpack sees them leapfrog the Blizzard into the top spot in our rankings. The Wolfpack have actually had the ninth hardest schedule thus far in the season, which makes their place in our rankings even more deserved. To finish the season, they have the league's second easiest schedule, so it will take a massive collapse for the Wolfpack to fall too far down in the standings.

That's it for the rankings this week, thanks for reading! Tune in again next week as we recap another week of sims and look forward to the playoff race.

Aleksi Kettu

***micool132*** · 10-14-2023, 10:12 PM

GOAT LANTA

***MikeLiut*** · 10-17-2023, 12:24 AM

I love those articles, nice job!

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