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Troy_McClure03 · 10-15-2023, 02:01 PM

The one and only Konstantin Selich is a shooting machine. Currently leading the SHL with 198 shots, Konstantin Selich is on pace for a close to career high 350shot (estimate) season. Looking into his tpe and stats, I think his success in shooting the puck can be explained by tpe, lines, and teammates.

On the Buffalo stampede since s64, Konstantin Selich has had great growth in all offensive categories. Below is a tpe and total shots per season:

Season: Shooting Accuracy:Shooting Range:overall tpe:
S64: 15 acc 11 Range. 1039 total tpe. 176 shots.
S65: 15 acc 11 Range 1229 total tpe. 156 shots
S66 16acc 11 Range. 1406 total tpe. 185 shots
S67 16 acc 11 Range. 1406 total tpe. 196 shots
S68 17 acc 12 Range. 1748 total tpe. 329 shots
S69 17 acc 12 range. 1908 total tpe. 303 shots
S70 18 acc 12 range. 1940 total tpe. 351 shots
S71 16 acc 11 range. 1843 total tpe. 308 shots
S72 16 acc 11 range. 1819 total tpe. 355 shots
S73 15 acc 11 range. 1654 total tpe. 198 shots

As the chart above demonstrates, more tpe seems to translate into more shots. The biggest change between season was between season 67 and season 68. He went from 196 shots to 329 shots. That is an additional 133 shots. That is like a 67% increase! This increase can solely be placed on the huge jump in tpe, from 1406 to 1748. That's a 342 tpe difference, which is a 24% increase. So 24% increase in tpe translated into a 67% increase in shots taken. Tpe isn't everything, however. How long you are on the ice also factors into how successful you are.

This season Konstantin Selich is averaging 22:51 of ice time per game. Over 1/3 of the game features this puck cannon! Also noteworthy is the power play time spent on ice, averaging this season at 3 minutes and 21 seconds. The advanced stats have concluded that this season Konstantin is on pace for almost 44 shots per 60 minutes. Assuming he will be dressed for all 66 games this season, and at the time of this writing Konstantin has 35 games down, he has 31 more games to go. 44 shots per 60 minutes breaks down to 22 shots per 40, or 11 shots per every 20. So 11 shots per 20 minutes, and over 20 minutes per game translates to 11 shots for each of the 31 games left. That's 341 shots left on the season if all the averages stay the same. Clearly that can't be possible, and I am sure I am taking some numbers out of context. Looking at Konstantin last 5 games played:

12/10 9 shots on goal
12/9 5 shots on goal
12/6 3 shots on goal
12/ 5 2 shots on goal
12/3 3 shots on goal

So out of 5 games Konstantin Selich had 22 shots. That's about 4 shots per game. If we apply that average to the remaining 31 games in the season he should pull a much more realistic 124 addiontal shots. This would put his season total at a respectable 322 shots.

In conclusion, I started this deep dive with the expectation that the leading shot taker, Konstantin Selich would reach 350 shots. I thought this because of his past history of shooting a ton, his current shot per game mark, and his current tpe distribution into both accuracy and range. While my math and science may be flawed, and I may have excluded some other tpe stats that could have a bigger weight, I still conclude that Konstantin Selich will break 350.

*CptSquall* · 10-22-2023, 10:19 AM

Approved.

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