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***FuzzSHL*** · 10-29-2023, 03:39 AM

With the 73rd SHL Regular Season coming to a close, the playoffs are suddenly on the horizon for those lucky teams who qualified. Despite missing last weekend's Power Rankings post, we're back with a look back at each playoff team's season while previewing each matchup! In this post we'll cover the Eastern Conference, while a separate post will cover the Western Conference.

We'll start off with the President's Trophy winning New England Wolfpack, who play host to the Toronto North Stars!

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The New England Wolfpack finished off yet another incredibly successful season with a repeat performance as the league's top team in the standings. The Wolfpack avoided bad losses for the most part, with their worst loss coming at home on 12/27 against the Montreal Patriotes, a 3-4 overtime loss. Taking care of business at every turn, the Wolfpack look to make yet another run at the Challenge cup. The first team standing in their way, however, happens to be one of the few teams, and the only big underdog, to manage to beat New England outside of their home arena.

The Toronto North Stars find themselves back in the playoffs for the first time since S68, which also happened to be the last time that the North Stars won the North East Division. Those playoffs saw the North Stars beat the Wolfpack in five games before falling to the Stampede in 6. The S73 season wasn't as good to Toronto as the S68 season was, but the North Stars still managed to steal a few games from the league's top teams on more than one occasion, and find themselves with more hope in this series than most people will give them credit for. Toronto's worst loss of the season actually came on the road against Manhattan, but outside of that blemish, they didn't drop many games that they weren't expected to.

Looking ahead at the series itself, our model favors the Wolfpack...quite heavily. Sorry, North Stars fans, I might have to take back my previous statement about having more of a shot than most would credit you for. The Filver System favors the Wolfpack with a 91% chance to win the series, and a 32% chance of a 4-1 series being the most likely outcome. Don't completely count the North Stars out of it, but it might not be too early to book those golf courses ahead of time if you're one of the North Star faithful.

Next up we take a look at the East's second seed Philadelphia Forge, who play host to the scrappy Tampa Bay Barracuda.

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The Philadelphia Forge finished as the league's fourth strongest team in our rankings, and for good reason. Their scoring depth was one of the best in the league, and netminder BASE PACK has shown time and time again that he shows up big when it matters most. They avoided bad losses at home, but lost twice to these same Barracuda in Tampa Bay this season. In fact, in three games at Tampa Bay this season, the Forge were outscored 14-10, no overtime or shootout games, and managed to get shut out in their first meeting on 12/12. Which Forge team will show up in this series? The Forge team who ran over every other opponent they faced, or the Forge team that struggled when visiting the sunshine state?

The Tampa Bay Barracuda took another step forward this season from last season, despite also making the playoffs in S72. There isn't much to say about this team, though, outside of the small improvement from last season. The Barracuda, on paper, are still a long ways from being taken seriously as a Cup contender. But for now? Oh they are thriving in the now. Of all the opponents they could have drawn in these playoffs, they managed the one top team they were able to really take seriously on home ice. Just...don't look at the games that were played in Philadelphia...that 25-3 goal differential in Philadelphia's favor doesn't look too pretty.

I would love to be able to say that the Barracuda have a strong chance of turning some heads in these playoffs, but they're still just a bit too far off for the model to appreciate their home success against the Forge this season. We've got Philadelphia with an 80% chance to win the series, and a 4-1 result as the most likely outcome.

A battle of two historically great franchises is up next on the menu as we take a look at the third seeded Buffalo Stampede going up against the up-and-coming Hamilton Steelhawks!

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The Buffalo Stampede are a team that thrives on being doubted, you can't convince me otherwise. I feel like all I've heard is that "this is the season they'll take a step back, you'll see" and yet they never seem to do that. This season was no different as they finished 6th in our ratings and 4th in the league overall! They sit comfortably in the "legitimate Cup contender" tier in our eyes, and only time will tell how true that is. If the team that beat Winnipeg at home shows up against Hamilton, they have nothing to worry about. If its the team that traveled to Montreal and lost...twice...getting outscored 11-7 in those three games...well, maybe they'll snap back into focus.

The Hamilton Steelhawks were at one point the apple of the model's eye with their rating climbing well into the 1400s earlier in the season. Its hard to pinpoint where exactly things started to go wrong for Hamilton, but it is clear that the potential is still there for magic to happen. I suspect the real potential of this team lies with their earlier rating, but they've got to go out there and prove the model wrong, because looking ahead at the series in front of them...

The Filver System has the Buffalo Stampede taking the series this time around against Hamilton, and a 68% chance to do so. Like the series before them, a 4-1 outcome is most likely, however, the odds of a 4-1, 4-2, and 4-3 series are so close together that I can't honestly say that one is more likely than the other. So, instead, I'll give a little fun fact: the model thinks it is equally likely that Buffalo sweeps Hamilton or Hamilton wins in seven games. What does that mean? I'll let you, the reader, decide.

Last, but certainly not least, we have the fourth seed Atlanta Inferno taking on the Baltimore Platoon.

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The Atlanta Inferno had quite the opposite season of the Hamilton Steelhawks in the model's eye. Atlanta wasn't so favored early in the season, finding themselves ranked ninth in the initial Filver Power Rankings. However, a mid-season surge saw them climb the rankings, while a trade for star netminder Brick Wall really seemed to help get them going. In the eyes of the model, the only team with a stronger stretch of games to end the season was the New England Wolfpack. That's saying something.

The Baltimore Platoon had a rollercoaster of a season, almost literally. They debuted in the Filver Power Rankings ranked 6th in the league, but fell to twelfth just a week later. Now, at the conclusion of the season, they find themselves in 7th. A deserved place, in my personal opinion, as the Platoon continue their rebuilding process. Of the teams currently emerging from their respective rebuilds, the betting favorite for quickest Cup might be the Platoon, but will it be this season?

This is the most conflicted the model has been on a series so far. It makes sense, these two are the two closest teams in terms of rating of the playoff matchups. Despite that, the model gives Atlanta the 55% edge in the series. The most likely outcome is that Atlanta wins in seven games, but the second most likely outcome? Baltimore, in six. If the first round of the playoffs were due for some chaos, this series is the most likely culprit, and I myself can't wait to see how it plays out.

Once again, I would like to congratulate all of the qualified playoff teams for their success this season! Good luck in the playoffs, and for the readers interested in the Western Conference matchups, stay tune!

Aleksi Kettu

***MikeLiut*** · 11-03-2023, 01:37 PM

Wow, amazing article. You were almost perfect!

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