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FuzzSHL · 03-07-2024, 04:42 PM

Congratulations to all of the teams who made it out of the first round! There were two upsets in the eyes of the model in the first round with New Orleans winning their series against the Winnipeg Aurora in six games, an outcome that the model initially believed to have an 8.55% likelihood of happening. On the other side of the bracket, the Hamilton Steelhawks upset the Buffalo Stampede in seven games, an outcome that the model initially believed to have a 13.12% likelihood of happening. With Hamilton, though, their odds and Filver rating were likely lower than their actual team strength due to some poor losses in their last 10 regular season games. At any rate, we're now down to our final eight teams, let's see how they match up!

Western Conference
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Our first matchup in the Western Conference actually features the two lower ranked teams in the conference both in terms of standings points and in Filver rating as the Texas Renegades host the New Orleans Specters. Texas topped the Central Division with a record of 45-17-4 and won their first round matchup in a sweep over the Chicago Syndicate. Despite finishing fourth in the league standings, Texas boasted the league's top defense allowing only 190 goals. The only other team in the SHL this season to allow less than 200 goals during the regular season? The team that the New Orleans Specters knocked out in the first round: Winnipeg. The regular season series between these two teams went to Texas, who won four of the six games with one loss at home and one loss in New Orleans. The model heavily favors the Renegades here with just shy of an 80% likelihood of winning the series. It does think New Orleans has a chance to take a game or two off of the Renegades, but a losing record and negative goal differential really hurt the Specters odds.

Game 5 Update
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Both of the Western Conference matchups have one team with a 3-1 series lead, and in this matchup it is the hosting Texas Renegades who hold the two-game lead over the New Orleans Specters. Things do not look good for the Specters as they have lost three games by at least three goals, while their lone win came in overtime at home. A Game 6 in Texas does not bode well for the Specters chances to bring this series back as the model gives this series an 88% chance to finish prior to a potential Game 7.

Our other Western Conference matchup pits the league's top two teams, both in league standings and Filver rating, against each other as the Edmonton Blizzard host the Los Angeles Panthers. Los Angeles's thirteen-game win streak to end the season boosts their Filver rating to be the league's best, but Edmonton's dominance throughout the season was unmatched. Led by the league's third-lowest goals allowed and top goal differential, Edmonton's home-ice advantage gives them the slight edge in the eyes of the model with a ~52% likelihood to take the series. While the model believes that the series is most likely to end in six games in Edmonton's favor, the chances for either team in a six or seven game series are all within a percentage point of each other. I would be surprised if this series didn't go the distance. Brace yourselves and have your doctors on speed dial, this is going to be a close one.

Game 5 Update
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Despite being the lower seed in this series, it was known coming into this series that these two teams were quite strong and evenly matched. Through four games, Los Angeles holds the goals lead by a margin of 22-16. Last offseason's addition of Alexi Piastri has paid off thus far as he leads the Panthers in scoring during this series, notching four goals and four assists in the first four games of the series. MVP frontrunner Adam Prpich (3-4-7) and preseason Jeff Dar favorite Axel Kirby (4-3-7) spearhead a Panthers offense that Edmonton has not yet found an answer for. Edzus Ozolins, drafted by the Blizzard, is having himself his best playoff performance to date having notched two goals and four assists in the first four games of the series. Meanwhile, on the flip side, Edmonton's Jack St. Clair continues his playoff dominance having notched five goals and four assists in the first four games of the series. Including the Blizzard's first round series, St. Clair has thirteen goals in ten playoff games. If the Blizzard are to come back, keep an eye on St. Clair to spearhead that comeback.

Eastern Conference
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Our first Eastern Conference matchup features the New England Wolfpack and the Hamilton Steelhawks with Ivan Lacksamus and the Wolfpack playing host. Hamilton is coming off a grueling seven game series against Konstantin Selich and the Buffalo Stampede while New England is coming off of a surprising six game series against the Tampa Bay Barracuda. During the regular season, these two teams weren't too far off of each other. Both teams scored close to 330 goals and allowed 252 (New England) and 262 (Hamilton). Hamilton struggled a bit more on the road, however, only winning fourteen games on the road as opposed to eighteen such wins by New England. The model favors the Wolfpack here with close to 59% odds. I wouldn't be too surprised to see the Steelhawks make a real series out of this, however, especially if Nogoalov (.906 postseason sv%) outduels Karsikko (.898 postseason sv%).

Game 5 Update
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In the Western Conference we have seen both series get through four games with one team having a 3-1 series lead. In the Eastern Conference, however, both matchups have found no headway and enter their respective Game 5s with their series ultimately coming down to a Best-of-Three. With New England playing host to Hamilton, each team split their respective home stands with the closest game coming in Game 3 in Hamilton where New England prevailed in overtime 5-4. Hamilton has the edge in scoring 16-13 thanks to a Game 1 shutout by new arrival Luka Nogoalov. Nogoalov has been the wall that the Steelhawks have needed him to be, posting a 0.923 save percentage through the first four games of the series. Meanwhile, New England's Olof Karsikko hasn't performed badly, either, saving 163 of the 178 shots he's faced through the first four games for a 0.915 save percentage. Despite the model favoring the Wolfpack, this series has been very close, and it will be an interesting and stressful watch for both fanbases.

Our last matchup to cover sees the league's third overall team, the Philadelphia Forge, host the Baltimore Platoon. The Forge finished the season with a record of 45-17-4 and swept their first round opponent, Toronto. Baltimore finished with a similar record, 43-19-4, but their offense wasn't nearly as dynamic as the Forge were, only netting 324 goals while Philadelphia netted 362. That increased goal differential and Filver rating difference sees the model give Philadelphia the edge in this series with a nearly 63% chance to move on to the Conference Finals. If the series goes to seven games, though, the model thinks it is close to a coin flip. Baltimore will need to hope that netminder Sir Devoir continues his performance from the first round where his .934 save percentage propelled the Platoon past the Atlanta Inferno.

Game 5 Update
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Last, but certainly not least, we have the series matching the Philadelphia Forge against the Baltimore Platoon. In our preview, we made note of Platoon netminder Sir Devoir's first round performance and how important he is to the Platoon's series against the Forge. Thus far, Devoir has struggled against the Forge's high octane offense, only managing 69 saves on 81 shots faced. It has gotten to the point where the Platoon switched to their rookie backup Beau Kavanagh, who managed 22 saves on 24 shots in relief during Game 2 while managing 41 saves on 44 shots in Baltimore's Game 4 win. Philadelphia's BASE PACK hasn't had himself an incredible series, either, saving 105 of the 121 shots he has faced thus far for a 0.868 save percentage. While both teams are hoping for better goalie performances through the rest of the series, the model still trusts in the Forge's offensive prowess to propel them into the Eastern Conference Finals.