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Symmetrik · 08-01-2024, 03:16 PM

HAHAHAHA YOU’RE A GOALIE

With that out of the way, the real purpose of this article is to take a look at the teams’ goaltending situations, and find out who has a bonafide starter already, who could run a tandem, who’s looking at pure backups, and see where goalies might end up in the draft.

First thing I’ll do is take a look at the current goaltending situations for the SMJHL teams, to determine a level of need for goalies, and then I will try to turn that need into a more direct range of where I think the team selects a goalie. I might mock some players in those ranges, but it’s hard to predict and mocking myself feels weird.

Anyway, an important thing I want to look at is how well the current goalies are earning, and compare to what a max earner could be. So I will look at the peak TPE earner from each class, and compare the goalie’s TPE amount to that, as well as using the portal to get TPE earned in S78. Because of the rollover issues, the S77 table was broken, but luke kindly fixed it and so now I'll also include the TPE earned during S77.

S76 Peak TPE: 795
S77 Peak TPE: 596
S78 Peak TPE: 394

It’s also worth keeping in mind that S78 players cap at 350 applied, while S76 & S77 players cap at 425. If a player from S77 is below 425 TPE they are playing under-capped.

The format will be:
Season - Player Name - Current TPE - Percentage of Max TPE - TPE Earned in S78 - TPE Earned in S77

In my mind, when I take a look at what the cap is what TPE you’re at, I think I pretty much can settle on anything about 70% of the max TPE will make you a pretty capable starting goalie. Anything around 60-75% is probably good for a tandem.

Anchorage Armada
[Image: Anchorage-min-2.png]

Current Goaltenders:
S77 - Adam Joy - 360 TPE - 60.4% - 53 TPE - 66 TPE
S78 - PeanutButter Zamboni - 341 TPE - 86.5% - 79 TPE - 107 TPE

The Anchorage Armada not only have a bonafide S78 starter. They also have a strong S77 backup. While Joy has more TPE, Zamboni has been earning a lot better. This will be a solid tandem while Zamboni caps at 350 TPE, Joy should be at the 425 cap, but at the rate of earning might only make it there mid season. I expect this tandem will ultimately last a long time, and so I rate the Armada’s need for a goalie at absolute 0. There’s no way they take a goalie, not even to plan for the future now. They’ll pick one in 2 seasons when Joy has aged out and Zamboni is playing their last season.

Need: Less than none

Carolina Kraken
[Image: Carolina-min.png]

Current Goaltenders:
S78 - Mason Remy - 184 TPE - 46.7% - 0 TPE - 29 TPE

Carolina has 1 goalie available, an S78 who earned when they created and that’s pretty much it. Remy’s TPE level has already been out-earned by most of the S79 goalies. Remy will likely be the backup and Carolina drafts their new starter this season. They have 6 picks in the first 22, so I expect at least 1 of those is a goalie. If they really wanted they could pick a 2nd goalie in round 3 or 4 who can tandem.

Need: Dire

Colorado Raptors
[Image: Colorado-min.png]

Current Goaltenders:
S76 - Timo Leppanen - 281 TPE - 35.3% - 0 TPE - 25 TPE
S76 - Jökull Magnússon - 163 TPE - 20.5% - 0 TPE - 0 TPE

Colorado’s goalies are in a pretty rough spot. Initially I didn’t think it was that bad, with 2 on the roster and 1 at 280 TPE, until I realized they were both S76. While 281 TPE for a starter can get you through the season, an S79 player could pass that around the playoffs. They will lose both these goalies next season, so they absolutely need to take a goalie here and plan for the future. They can scrape by this season so I think

Need: Important

Detroit Falcons
[Image: Detroit-min.png]

Current Goaltenders:
S76 - Thorn Brown - 189 TPE - 23.8% - 0 TPE - 0 TPE
S76 - Anastasia Söderström - 782 TPE - 98.4% - 88 TPE - 196 TPE

Detroit has the best starter in the SMJHL right now, from my perspective here. However, Söderström is an S76 player, which means this is her final season in the SMJHL. Detroit I’m sure would love a goalie for the future, but depending on how much Söderström wants to play, Detroit may not want to spend one of their few draft picks on a pure backup. I think Detroit would like to get a goalie, but I don’t think it realistically happens.

Need: For the future

Great Falls Grizzlies
[Image: GreatFalls-min.png]

Current Goaltenders:
S77 - Elvar Gil-Galad - 559 TPE - 93.8% - 87 TPE - 191 TPE
S76 - Lee Harrison - 287 TPE - 36.1% - 0 TPE - 0 TPE

Much like Detroit, the Grizzlies have a bonafide starter, but with the added bonus that they can still play 2 seasons in the SMJHL. And also unlike Detroit, they have a backup goalie at 287 TPE. Harrison is done after this season regardless, but there’s really no gain for the Grizzlies to draft a goalie to be a worse backup than Harrison for most of the season. They can go next season, draft a fresh S80 player and still have Gil-Galad starting next season.

Need: None

Kelowna Knights
[Image: Kelowna-min.png]

Current Goaltenders:
S78 - Gino Fortezza - 378 TPE - 95.9% - 86 TPE - 137 TPE
S77 - Doom Guy - 214 TPE - 35.9% - 0 TPE - 0 TPE

Yeah Kelowna doesn’t need a goalie. Fortezza was drafted last season, is max earning, capped, and still has 3 seasons of SMJHL eligibility. Doom Guy isn’t a great backup, but I think a backup goalie is pretty far down the list of picks they need to value. They can give Fortezza a full slate of starts for at least 2 seasons with no issue. Barring going IA before getting to spend to the 425 TPE cap, Fortezza is the most valuable goalie on this list.

Need: Negative

Maine Timber
[Image: Maine-min.png]

Current Goaltenders:
S78 - Kris - 311 TPE - 78.9% - 58 TPE - 98 TPE

Kris is a capable starter for Maine. Unlike Fortezza, they haven’t reached the 350 TPE cap for this season, but still an S78 goalie and pretty solidly on pace to hit close to 350 by the start of the season, and 425 by next season. I figure Maine is pretty comfortable with rolling Kris as the starter for the next 3 seasons. They obviously need someone to backup, but their first pick isn’t until 30, so I think they’d rather spend their few picks on something more valuable than a backup goalie.

Need: Backup

Nevada Battleborn
[Image: Nevada-min.png]

Current Goaltenders:
S78 - Akira Suzuki - 205 TPE - 52.0% - 0 TPE - 50 TPE
S77 - Thomas Suchanek - 317 TPE - 53.2% - 0 TPE - 68 TPE

Nevada is in one of the more interesting positions in the SMJHL right now when it comes to goalies. Suchanek at 317 TPE is more than a rookie can get to this season. They can run him for another 2 seasons at this level. Suzuki is a backup who has less TPE than S79 players right now. I think NBB is in a pretty good spot where they could draft a goalie of the future to replace the 2 inactives. In my conversations with their scout though, I heard that they weren’t interested in a goalie. I’m somewhat surprised honestly, with a 1st, 2 2nds, and 2 3rds, a pretty good team composition, and 8 goalies in the draft it seems like a good opportunity to replace an IA with only a couple seasons left. A goalie drafted this season would be better than Suchanek next season.

Need: Yes but they don’t seem interested in one.

Newfoundland Berserkers
[Image: Newfoundland-min.png]

Current Goaltenders:
S78 - Sami Samsonov - 155 TPE - 39.3% - 0 TPE - 0 TPE

Newfoundland needs a goalie. They have 1 goalie on roster and it’s an inactive player who never earned a single TPE. Literally every single goalie currently in the draft is better than that. 2 1sts and 2 2nds plus an early 3rd is a prime opportunity to address this. With lots of options available, I expect NL will be one of the first teams to select a goalie.

Need: This is worse than having no goalies

Ottawa Highlanders

Current Goaltenders:
S77 - Bishop Van Apeldoorn - 448 TPE - 75.2% - 57 TPE - 162 TPE

Ottawa needs a backup, but Bishop is already at the 425 cap and has 2 seasons left to play, there’s not really any upgrading on that. A backup and someone to take over for the future, I think Ottawa looks at taking a goalie later rather than sooner. They could sign an IA to be the backup, but drafting someone and being able to split starts a little more might get Bishop rested for the playoffs.

Need: Backup

Quebec City Citadelles
[Image: QuebecCity-min.png]

Current Goaltenders:
None

Well that’s not a very good situation. Obviously QCC will need a goalie, but they also need a backup. While it’s possible they try to draft 2 goalies and run a tandem, I think ultimately it’s more likely they take their starter and run with them. They can sign an IA backup or something. Realistically with 8 goalies right now, and the number of picks they have, I don’t think it’s realistic that they get the chance to draft 2 goalies anyway.

Need: Desperate

San Diego Tidal

Current Goaltenders:
S78 - Walter Scheibli - 363 TPE - 92.1% - 80 TPE - 113 TPE
S76 - Josh Grygo - 170 TPE - 21.4% - 0 TPE - 0 TPE

Much like Kelowna, the Tidal have an S-Tier S78 starter. Scheibli is max earning, already at the 350 cap and will hit the 425 cap easily. With 3 seasons left to play. Grygo is a subpar backup, but there’s no reason to try and upgrade through the draft when Scheibli will be getting as many starts as possible. This is a problem they can try to solve next season.

Need: A time machine to get to next season for a goalie

St. Louis Scarecrows
[Image: StLouis-min.png]

Current Goaltenders:
S78 - Wolfgang Puck - 232 TPE - 58.9% - 31 TPE - 46 TPE
S77 - Vatali Yermakov - 170 TPE - 28.5% - 0 TPE - 0 TPE
S77 - Evil Kyle Murray - 516 TPE - 86.6% - 77 TPE - 171 TPE

St. Louis is the only team on the list with 3 goalies on the roster. Yermakov should end up cut ultimately, and probably be picked up by a team like Maine to backup Kris. Evil Kyle Murray is a solid starter for 2 more seasons, and Wolfgang Puck is plenty capable as a backup, and is even earning to the point that they can probably start for a season after Murray leaves. STL will be completely content with their goalie situation right now. They already have someone for after Murray, and then they could start looking at drafting a replacement.

Need: 3 seasons from now

Thunder Bay Walleye

Current Goaltenders:
S78 - Nicholas Scalice - 205 TPE - 52.0% - 0 TPE - 42 TPE
S78 - Grant Berd - 272 TPE - 69.0% - 8 TPE - 94 TPE

Thunder Bay might be in the most interesting spot of any team in the draft. They have 2 goalies from the previous draft, one who has been earning juuuuust under that 70% mark I set for being a capable starter. If Berd keeps earning, they’ll out-pace anyone drafted this season. But a max earner drafted this season will probably get to the 425 cap before Berd. Scalice can serve perfectly fine as a backup. They don’t really need a goalie. It all comes down to how much trust they have in Berd. Ultimately I think they give Berd the keys this season, but will be keeping a close eye and preparing for either a waiver pickup or a draftee next season. They don’t have the picks to spend on attempting to replace Berd.

Need: Probably but they don’t take a shot

Vancouver Whalers
[Image: Vancouver2.png]

Current Goaltenders:
None

Much like QCC, the Whalers are starting with a blank slate. Unlike QCC, they have absolutely no picks to address it. Their first pick of the draft is a 4th rounder at 59th overall. They’ve got a good enough roster already, but they do actually need anybody to strap on the pads this season. Their options will likely be severely limited though by the time pick number 59 rolls around. [They traded to get pick 42 during the time of writing, it’s addressed in the later half]

Need: It’s gonna be the zamboni driver at this rate

Yukon Malamutes

Current Goaltenders:
S78 - Phemeia McLaughlin - 247 TPE - 62.7% - 31 TPE - 61 TPE
S77 - Dexter Harrison Jr. - 369 TPE - 61.9% - 16 TPE - 127 TPE

Yukon is in a pretty decent spot honestly. Both their goalies are under-earning, but they’re still around the 60% mark which I think is good enough to make a solid tandem. Dexter can work up to the 425 cap still, and Phemeia is still earning towards 350. Phemeia should out-pace the S79 max earners, even at 62% earning. Which means it ultimately doesn’t make any sense for Yukon to spend their limited draft picks on a goalie who wouldn’t provide them any value. It might be nice to have a solid, max earning starter, but they wouldn’t even be replacing an inactive. Unless they made a trade like Phemeia to Maine to make space, there’s negative value to picking a goalie in the draft.

Need: They need to not pick a goalie.

With that analysis done, a quick recap of the teams that need a goalie:
Anchorage: No
Carolina: Yes
Colorado: Yes
Detroit: No
Great Falls: No
Kelowna: No
Maine: Backup
Nevada: Maybe
Newfoundland: Yes
Ottawa: Backup
Quebec City: Yes
San Diego: No
St. Louis: No
Thunder Bay: Maybe
Vancouver: Yes
Yukon: No

There’s 8 goalies available in the draft, and I’ll give more discussion about them shortly. With 5 teams getting an absolute yes in terms of needing a goalie, that leaves 2 teams looking for backups, and 2 teams maybe looking for goalies. Uh-oh. That’s 9 goalies. Backup roles can be filled from free agents, and the maybe teams can roll with what they have. So it’s not going to come down to a desperate grab for goalies.

Of the 5 teams that need a goalie - Carolina, Colorado, Newfoundland, Quebec City, and Vancouver - Carolina is in by far the strongest position. They have 4 1st round picks, including 3 in a row, and then 2 2nds in the first 6 picks of the 2nd round. They have the complete choice of picking the goalie they want in that range, and still getting strong value from skaters with all their other picks. Technically, Newfoundland could pick a goalie 4th overall and have exactly the person they want, and Colorado could do the same at 6, but I don’t believe anyone will take a crack at a goalie that early. QCC is not looking for a goalie with their 1st rounder. Vancouver doesn’t pick until 59th. Barring any trades that puts Carolina in prime position.

There are 8 goalies available, which I will break into 4 tiers of players, and then I will essentially pick which teams and when they pick in that tier, rather than mocking an exact player to a team.

One thing I will note is that this sorting heavily favours recreates - honestly, I rate good first gens very highly, but there’s only 3 first gen goalies and none of them have made a post or a topic on the site and they have a combined bank balance of -$925,000.

1st Tier
Jon-Isaac Forty-One - 214 TPE - @C9Van
Katharina Rosenthal - 208 TPE - @Symmetrik
QCCBOT4 - 208 TPE - @Evok

These 3 recreates are all members of the 2K TPE club on their previous players. C9 has had 2 previous 2K TPE players, and Evok has had 3. Evok and myself both had previous Hall of Fame players. I have 3, Evok has 3, and C9 has 1 Challenge Cup. C9 had a head start by creating closer to the trade deadline, so has a 6 TPE advantage. These 3 are top of the crop for the goalies right now.

2nd Tier
Jeff Kirkstone III - 208 TPE - @Grapehead

Grape is a great user with a strong history of players, just without most of the accolades. No Hall of Fame or 2K Club, which ultimately doesn’t really matter to SMJHL teams. While he might not peak at the same heights, that’s not gonna matter to the SMJHL teams if you’re max earning through the Js. Really this is like, tier 1.5 only because I needed something to talk about for the 1st tier and we were all in the 2K club and Grape wasn’t.

3rd Tier
Zsigmond Popovics - 193 TPE - @BloomeyGB
Ela Solberg - 190 TPE - @KanameRei

These 2 are in a very similar position. Kaname is a first gen, while Bloomey is a recreate from S54. Both are currently sitting at roughly -$1,000,000. Bloomey had a couple of articles for their DFA season, so they had a little money come in, but they were already graded and paid and didn't get them out of the hole. Kaname hasn’t made a post on the site yet, but hopefully they have some media in the pipeline or something, or the well is gonna dry up very quickly. Obviously because of this neither one has purchased equipment for this season, which is why they are slightly behind on TPE. That’s fixable, but requires a lot of money that neither is currently making, which is why they sit in the 3rd tier.

4th Tier
Cristobal Khabibulin - 182 TPE - @simcat_90
Andrei Vasilevsky - 165 TPE - @MotionlessInReverse

At the very least these two first gens are not in negative money, however simcat is at $25,000 and Motionless is at $0. The similarities pretty much end there, and probably should be separate tiers, but 5 tiers for 8 goalies sound kind of absurd. Both have missed out on unredeemable TPE, but Montionless more so. There’s been 5 activity checks for S79s to do, 1 and 2 were closed before Motionless and simcat created, respectively. 1 is this week’s which neither has done. So Motionless was eligible for 3 past ones and only did 2, and simcat was eligible for 2 and did both. However, simcat only did the lowest level of training, for 1 TPE both times, missing out on 4 TPE. It’s frugal, given the money situation, but it’s not a fantastic trend. Neither one has made a post or topic on the site, which is not promising for longevity.

So with those sorted, it’s time to create a little mock draft of where I think teams will look to select a goalie.

The ultimate question here is who blinks first. Carolina holds 4 1st round picks, and NL has 2, with one of them being the final pick in the round. Carolina could take a goalie at 11 with no issue, but with picks at 18 and 22, they could opt for a skater. NL picks at 16 and 21. Both times just ahead of Carolina. So who blinks first? Ultimately, I think Carolina goes first and gets the goalie they want, at 18th. I think the first 2 goalies go at either 18 and 21 or 21 and 22, it comes down to who makes the call, but no other teams in the earlier range will be looking at a goalie yet, and with 4 picks already under their belt I think Carolina takes the liberty of picking the player they want. Newfoundland then takes either their 1st or 2nd choice at 21. They can’t wait until 27 for multiple reasons, primarily being they need to use that pick on their GM. But also, there’s Quebec at 25 and Colorado at 26 who will both want goalies.

Colorado kind of forces Quebec’s hand at this point I imagine. If Quebec does not take the last of the 1st tier here, I think Colorado does at 26. And on 2 fronts, I wouldn’t be surprised if NL and Carolina both opt to not take Evok (I think she’d be a good pick for either despite the name QCCBOT4), leaving Evok to fall right to QCC. If they pass at 25 though, I don’t believe Colorado would be as nice, and would absolutely take Evok.

If Evok is taken as one of the first picks though, I think QCC opts not to take a goalie here though, and they play a little game of chicken with Colorado. They have to be careful though because in my opinion they play a dangerous game with Nevada in the mix at 29 and 31. They have said they aren’t looking for a goalie, but I think they should be. I’m not convinced they’d leave a 1st or 2nd tier goalie on the board there.

Ultimately I think 25 is the last 1st tier goalie, 26 is 2nd tier, and then onto the 3rd and more riskier tier of goalies. Nevada would pick a 1st or 2nd tier goalie at 31 if they were available, but since they aren’t I think they ultimately do not look at drafting any other goalie. Thunder Bay is in a similar situation but unless they take one at 13th (they won’t) they aren’t in a position to get a 1st or 2nd tier goalie and therefore won’t take one.

Vancouver just recently traded up to the 42nd pick. It’s interesting. Are they trading up for a goalie? It’s a gaping hole for them, but I think by this point all of the 1st and 2nd tier goalies are gone, and so I don’t know that it’s worth it at this point to take a chance on a risky starter.

Maine has a lot of 3rd round picks, and with a pretty good starter can take a risk on a 3rd tier of goalie. They could pick at 34 or 40 and jump Vancouver anyway, but I think Maine at 48 takes a 3rd tier goalie. Vancouver is taking on a risk either way by drafting their starter at this point, but unless they really like one of the 3rd tier goalies, I don’t see why they’d take the chance at 42 because I think they still get a 3rd tier goalie at 59.

Ottawa will likely draft a backup at 76, at this point from the 4th tier (and it should be Khabibulin). I can’t predict when because I suspect there will be a lot of passing, but I think it’s likely that at this point Vancouver or Quebec take the 8th and final goalie to fill the backup spot. If I had to guess, I’d say Vancouver. They’re taking on the risk of a 3rd tier goalie as their starter, they might as well take both risky picks and have a little better odds with 2 instead of 1. There will be a lot of passing and I wouldn’t be surprised if we’re looking at like, pick 123 or something before the final goalie is picked.

To sum it up, my predictions are:
18 - Carolina Kraken - 1st Tier
21 - Newfoundland Berserkers - 1st Tier
25 - Quebec City Citadelles - 1st Tier
26 - Colorado Raptors - 2nd Tier
48 - Maine Timber - 3rd Tier
59 - Vancouver Whalers - 3rd Tier
76 - Ottawa Highlanders - 4th Tier
123 - Vancouver Whalers - 4th Tier

If I had to put some names in there, Carolina and Newfoundland leave Evok to go to Quebec. I called Grapehead 2nd tier, but as I said then there really isn’t anything separating him from the 1st tier except previous 2K clubs, which doesn’t matter for SMJHL. Carolina and Newfoundland likely are picking between myself, C9Van, and Grapehead. Colorado gets the leftovers. If I had to guess, Bloomey is drafted first in the 3rd tier, purely because they have 2 articles written recently. Ottawa takes Khabibulin and then Vancouver gets Vasilevsky.

Well, that’s the end of that. I figured it would be a lot, but I didn’t expect it to be quite this much. I haven’t even actually looked at the word count. I’d tried to just look at the portal to get an idea, but just reading the roster pages wasn’t giving me enough retention. I couldn't really see what the goalie landscape in the SMJHL looked like until I actually had it all written down like this. I’m glad I really didn’t have much work to do today so I could write this all out lol.

Anyway, good luck to all my fellow goalies in the draft this weekend!

Code:
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***Evok*** · 08-01-2024, 03:38 PM

oh no why am i in T1, i should be in T100

C9Van · 08-01-2024, 04:35 PM

I appreciate you putting me that highly albeit I refuse to play for half the minors teams lmao

But you put in a lot of work here and i enjoyed it thoroughly so thank you