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icewindoo · 08-04-2024, 01:39 AM

This week my new player Barcus Juneau -- first-gen Canadian D -- was drafted into the SMJHL. In honour of his big occasion, I thought I'd take a look at a few of the D players from previous seasons who were drafted at the same position in the SMJHL draft as Barcus, 19th overall. No one can know where Barcus's road will take him, but looking at the peak of players drafted in a similar position might give some clues as to how Barcus might develop. SHL players typically peak (in terms of TPE) at around J draft season + 10, so here are some D players who went 19th overall in the SMJHL draft and what they looked like 10 seasons later.

Dirty Boots - S61 SMJHL Draft - Detroit Falcons
S62 SHL Draft - 19th overall Texas Renegades

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Dirty Boots spent three seasons with Detroit before being called up to Texas, which to-date remains his only SHL team. In his J draft +10 season Boots was a minute-munching two-way defenceman, used in all on-ice situations. His overall Player Contribution score (*) of 51 for that season doesn't particularly impress, revealing him as a merely average defender despite his career-high TPE. Interestingly, despite a falling TPE, Boots continued to improve in later seasons; he was deservedly named a 3rd-team All-Star in season 75, and has forged a career to be proud of. There is a source of inspiration to be had here for both Barcus and all other SHL players: it's never too late to continue improving.

Ben Der - S63 SMJHL Draft - Quebec City Citadelles
S64 SHL Draft - 21st overall Toronto North Stars

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Ben Der had a curious career. Full of promise in his early years, Der was named to the season 63 SMJHL Rookie All-Star Team. After four full seasons in the J with Quebec City, Der joined a Toronto team that was one of the best in the league. But whether or not it was related to Toronto's struggles over the next few seasons, Der's development was also unable to keep up with the high early expectations. By season 73 Der had not reached a level commensurate with his experience. An old-school defender, Der was one of the league's best shot blockers, but provided little else of value on either defence or offence. His J draft + 10 season turned out to be his last.

Filip Lund - S67 SMJHL Draft - St. Louis Scarecrows
S68 SHL Draft - 13th overall New Orleans Specters

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After being drafted by the Scarecrows in season 67, Filip Lund spent just two seasons with St. Louis and moved to Maine for one more season in the J before joining New Orleans. A strong two-way defender, Lund hadn't achieved much team success with New Orleans, but had won several international medals by the time of season 77. He won the Turd Ferguson award in season 73 as the player with the most penalty minutes. His performance in season 77 showed that he was valuable at both ends of the ice, and was a capable contributor to both the power play and the penalty kill. His overall Player Contribution score of 89 proclaims him to be an excellent (if not quite elite) talent on the blue-line, and would be an admirable role model for Barcus's development.

Overall it's certainly a mixed bag in terms of quality of recent role models for D drafted at 19th overall. There is no guarantee of success for being drafted early in the second round, and there's no point in being proud of that as an achievement. It is clearly up to Barcus to make a name for himself and to become a role model for future generations of players.

(*) A very short note on the player cards. I love looking at stats, especially when they're presented in summary form so I don't have to think too hard. (Me not so good at the thinking.) Thus I have "borrowed" the form and content of JFreshHockey's excellent player cards (https://jfresh.substack.com/p/2022-nhl-p...-explainer) to create cards for SHL players. Instead of calculating fancy stuff like WAR, I have "borrowed" the Player Contribution system developed by Alan Ryder (https://www.hockeyanalytics.com/Research...System.pdf), to represent a player's contribution to game results in simple summary values. All numbers are based on actual season stats, not a player's ratings / attributes / TPE.