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kckolbe · 03-27-2018, 12:52 PM

Hey folks, it’s me again. You saw the East, now check out the…I can’t really say least considering the most likely champ is gonna come from here. Oh well. I know some of you have been looking forward to seeing this installment, and <a href='index.php?showuser=2327' rel='nofollow' alt='profile link' class='user-tagged mgroup-69'>ztevans</a>, I promise Winnipeg made the top 4 this time.

#1: Winnipeg Jets
Record: 33-12-5 (1st)
GD: +41 (2nd)
Talent: 1st
Okay, I could see why someone would be angry at not seeing this team near the top. They are almost in a tier by themselves. Their forwards have an extra 2k TPE over the second-best corps in the entire league (Minnesota), but they also have one of the league’s best defenses. Hell, their third line of forwards would be top liners in Buffalo. Not sure which team that says more about.

#2: Edmonton Blizzard
Record: 33-14-3 (2nd)
GD: +47 (1st)
Talent: 3rd
It’s rare for me to value a preseason ranking over talent, but the Blizzard were on f-no, that doesn’t make sense. They were…really good. Their goal differential of +47 is the only thing that made Winnipeg look mortal. Technically, they are behind Calgary in total TPE, but it is such a marginal difference that I consider preseason performance more a tiebreaker.

#3: Calgary Dragons
Record: 31-15-4 (3rd)
GD: +32 (3rd)
Talent: 2nd
To say the Dragons are in the same TPE tier as the Blizzard would be an understatement. In terms of TPE allocation (across teams, not individual players), it becomes even murkier. One thing I can say is that Calgary has a playoff berth waiting for them if they manage even somewhat competently. The difference between CAL/EDM and the next closest teams is significant.

#4: Texas Renegades
Record: 30-16-4 (4th)
GD: +24 (4th)
Talent: 5th
So, I took some heat for a comment I made about the Renegades being a borderline playoff team this year, but clearly I still stand by it. Texas had a very impressive preseason, but I am not sold on them and would not be at all surprised if LAP doesn’t eventually pass them. Honestly, if I were them, I would be looking to unload some aging players for draft picks, because the future looks dark, and I don’t see them doing well enough to justify holding on.

#5: Los Angeles Panthers
Record: 18-24-8 (6th)
GD: -42 (6th)
Talent: 4th
The Panthers did their best impression of the West Kendall Platoon, but while they won fewer games than the Eastern unlucky, the Panthers ended up in 6th place, a full 12 wins shy of the team with 90 less total TPE. That gap of 90, by the way, is the lowest in the league, though unlike EDM/CAL, I feel pretty confident that LAP is the better-off team. So, uh…what happened? If I had to guess (and I do have to guess, as I can’t bring up the index to check), the Panthers’ defense was just too overwhelmed. Los Angeles has the weakest defense of all the potential playoff contenders, and also one of the weaker starting goalies. They are going to have to plan carefully.

#6: San Francisco Pride
Record: 22-25-3 (5th)
GD: -15 (5th)
Talent: 6th
In looking at goals scored and allowed, you can see how having just a few hundred more TPE across your defense and goalie make a huge difference. The Pride were the 3rd-lowest scoring team in the league in preseason, but by at least keeping the puck out of their own net, they at least kept a respectable differential. Honestly, I think the Pride are a better team than they appear to be. The West only has 1 really bad team, whereas the East has 3 teams 1k TPE or more behind SFP. Really, a change of conferences would give them a few more wins without changing anything. Or, since that is unlikely to happen, they could just call up some SMJHL players. It likely won’t happen this year, but if they bring up the talent they are stashing, they are a legit playoff contender in S41.

#7: Seattle Riot
Record: 10-38-2 (7th)
GD: -91 (7th)
Talent: 7th
What do you even say? I guess, as backhanded as it is, they are better than they look? Toronto won over twice as many games in the preseason, yet these two teams are, in terms of SHL talent, completely comparable. Honestly, it’s like 500 TPE, and I actually like the distribution of Seattle’s better. With Toronto, at least, I can see hope down the road, but I just don’t know what else to say here. Enjoy the lottery?

In case you are curious, here is every team ranked by talent. I won’t give the exact numbers, but I will separate into tiers.

Tier 1:
Winnipeg Jets

Tier 2:
Hamilton Steelhawks
West Kendall Platoon
Minnesota Chiefs
New England Wolfpack
Calgary Dragons
Edmonton Blizzard

Tier 3:
Los Angeles Panthers
Texas Renegades
San Francisco Pride

Tier 4:
Buffalo Stampede
Manhattan Rage

Tier 5:
Toronto North Stars
Seattle Riot

(For what it’s worth, SFP fell right in between 3 and 4, but were slightly closer to 3)

Keygan · 03-27-2018, 01:00 PM

When sorting tiers is there any relevance to order in the tier? Or just separated by conference?

kckolbe · 03-27-2018, 01:05 PM

Quote:Originally posted by Keygan@Mar 27 2018, 10:00 AM
When sorting tiers is there any relevance to order in the tier? Or just separated by conference?

Within each tier it is still ordered by mainly TPE. I say mainly because I put WKP over MIN despite MIN having slightly more.

DeletedAtUserRequest · 03-27-2018, 09:19 PM

another solid article!

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LB. · 03-28-2018, 02:30 PM

oh hello there

Atlas · 03-28-2018, 06:47 PM

:flex:

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