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Top TPE Prospects - Efficiency
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NerioRegistered Posting Freak
02-16-2019, 01:29 PM
(This post was last modified: 02-23-2019, 12:33 PM by Nerio.
Edit Reason: title clarity
)
1301 words, double media week
In the interest of finding even more non-traditional stats about the rookies eligible for this upcoming draft, I decided to look a bit into the top TPE earners’ even strength efficiency and their powerplay efficiency versus their total points earned this past season. We have points per 20 minutes of play time as an easily accessible stat, so to create something comparable I went ahead and calculated points per 20 minutes for even strength time and powerplay time. I find that generally, players are sorted by their points, which makes sense as with hockey like everything in life it’s easy to be results oriented. The points per 20 minutes stat is interesting because it can give a glimpse into what a player that doesn’t get a lot of ice time is capable of (or in my player’s case, what happens when you’re on a line with the two leading scorers  ). Out of the top 25 earners, 23 of them were skaters so the lists will look like they’re missing a couple people but don’t fret, they’re just puck stopping meat bags. I’ve included the defensmen in this because while they generally get more ice time and less scoring opportunities than forwards, several of the defensmen this season were among the top point earners, so it didn't make sense to omit them. Let’s first look at these players sorted by points as a baseline  Matt Kholin 290 TPE 32P Monkey D. Luffy 305 TPE 31P Guy Zheng 300 TPE 31P Karlstraße Scholz 296 TPE 31P Bobby Sharp 291 TPE 27P Jimmy Slothface 290 TPE 27P Kit Smeb 300 TPE 26P Knute Knurtsson 288 TPE 25P Gordie Boomhover 293 TPE 25P Brennan Kennedy Jr. 295 TPE 25P Kalevi Karhunen 289 TPE 24P Nikolai Evans 277 TPE 20P Michael Scarn 300 TPE 19P Kalvins Zvejnieks 299 TPE 19P Borromini Cannellini 304 TPE 18P Michael Fox 279 TPE 17P Mathias Seger 277 TPE 17P Perry Morgan 300 TPE 14P Nick Brain 291 TPE 13P Olivier Cloutier 276 TPE 13P Barry Batsbak 276 TPE 13P Kristoffer Svensson 281 TPE 10P Brock Emmerton 278 TPE 8PThe top earners represent about half of the top 10 rookie scorers from this season, with 27 points being the 10th place spot. Now let’s take a look at their points per 20 minutes of even strength (P20ES) playtime. Knute Knurtsson 0.85 +7 Kit Smeb 0.64 +5 Bobby Sharp 0.60 +2 Monkey D. Luffy 0.57 -2 Michael Scarn 0.55 +8 Matt Kholin 0.50 -5 Nick Brain 0.50 +12 Gordie Boomhover 0.50 +1 Kalevi Karhunen 0.49 +2 Borromini Cannellini 0.48 +5 Jimmy Slothface 0.45 -5 Olivier Cloutier 0.45 +8 Barry Batsbak 0.44 +8 Guy Zheng 0.42 -11 Michael Fox 0.42 +1 Karlstraße Scholz 0.39 -12 Brock Emmerton 0.37 +6 Kalvins Zvejnieks 0.33 -4 Perry Morgan 0.33 -1 Brennan Kennedy Jr. 0.32 -10 Kristoffer Svensson 0.28 +1 Mathias Seger 0.27 -5 Nikolai Evans 0.27 -11The number at the end is how many spots they moved up or down compared to the points rankings. Here we start to see some pretty significant shifts. Knute Knurtsson moves from 8th in points from this group all the way to 1st in points relative to his even strength ice time, and leads the pack by a very significant margin. Fellow members Michael Scarn and Nick Brain also leapfrog up, with Scarn going from 13th in points to 5th in P20ES, and Brain jumping up to 7th from 19th. Barry Batsbak and Olivier Cloutier also both make quite a jump, going up 8 spots from 20th and 21st points to 12th and 13th P20ES. The high octane defensive duo Guy Zheng and Karlstraße Scholz go in the opposite direction, dropping from 3rd and 4th in points respectively down to 14th and 16th in P20ES, which is to be expected of a defensive unit I’d think. Brennan Kennedy Jr. and Nikolai Evans also drop significantly here, down 10 and 11 spots.Now let’s take a look at their points per 20 minutes of powerplay time (P20PP). The number at the end is again relative to the points ranking. Guy Zheng 1.82 +2 Bobby Sharp 1.76 +3 Matt Kholin 1.72 -2 Karlstraße Scholz 1.72 0 Gordie Boomhover 1.28 +4 Jimmy Slothface 1.27 0 Brennan Kennedy Jr. 1.25 +3 Nikolai Evans 1.20 +4 Kit Smeb 1.04 -2 Kalvins Zvejnieks 0.89 +4 Mathias Seger 0.89 +6 Monkey D. Luffy 0.83 -10 Knute Knurtsson 0.59 -5 Borromini Cannellini 0.38 +1 Michael Scarn 0.36 -2 Barry Batsbak 0.00 +5 Brock Emmerton 0.00 +6 Kalevi Karhunen 0.00 -7 Nick Brain 0.00 0 Olivier Cloutier 0.00 0 Michael Fox 0.00 -5 Perry Morgan 0.00 -4 Kristoffer Svensson 0.00 -1One quick note here for the players who didn’t have any power play points - In the spirit of capturing on ice point earning efficiency, I ranked them by how many minutes they played on the PP, with more minutes ranking lower. Someone like Barry Batsbak who had 0 minutes of PP time is ranked higher than Kristoffer Svensson who had 27 minutes. So there are actually less drastic changes here, which makes sense due to how strong of a correlation high point earners have with high powerplay time and performance. We see that the high scoring defensmen are both in the top 5 here again. The only real surprise here to be honest is rookie of the year candidate Monkey D. Luffy dropping 10 spots relative to his points ranking within this group, though that may be attributed to the Lions lack of synergy on the powerplay since they finished the season with only a 17.26% success rate. Last but not least, I wanted to look at combined points per 20 minutes for these players, and again compare that with how they rank against each other for points. Knute Knurtsson 0.83 +7 Kit Smeb 0.71 +5 Bobby Sharp 0.71 +2 Matt Kholin 0.71 -3 Gordie Boomhover 0.66 +4 Monkey D. Luffy 0.61 -4 Guy Zheng 0.60 -4 Jimmy Slothface 0.59 -2 Karlstraße Scholz 0.54 -5 Michael Scarn 0.52 +3 Nick Brain 0.49 +8 Kalevi Karhunen 0.49 -1 Borromini Cannellini 0.46 +2 Brennan Kennedy Jr. 0.45 -4 Barry Batsbak 0.44 +6 Olivier Cloutier 0.44 +4 Michael Fox 0.41 -1 Kalvins Zvejnieks 0.40 -4 Nikolai Evans 0.39 -7 Brock Emmerton 0.37 +3 Mathias Seger 0.33 -4 Perry Morgan 0.32 -4 Kristoffer Svensson 0.27 -1So there you have it. This is definitely just one way to look at efficiency and every player’s situation will be different in ways that aren’t necessarily reflective of that player’s ability. As I mentioned before, I was on the line with the two best linemates known to man (shoutout to @Noble @Jepox). I do think this might give a little more attention towards players who didn’t get a lot of ice time but still performed well with it. Barry Batsbak, Nick Brain, and Olivier Cloutier stand out to me in that regard. All three players performed well relative to their peers with low ice time and limited to no powerplay time. I’m definitely excited to see what these players and many others like them can do once they get more even strength and special teams ice time.
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