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*fishy* · 01-06-2021, 01:35 AM

[Image: SHN_Red_darkgrey_wordmark.png?width=1080&height=448]

With the switch to FHM along with the SHL expanding to 18 teams, the playoff format as we were used to experienced a drastic change. The expansion to 18 teams also brought with it an expansion of the SHL playoffs to 12 teams. It is here the root of the SHLs playoff problem lies. With the expansion to 18 teams, which created two lopsided divisions of five teams and two of four teams, SHLs scheduling had to change to accomadate the new teams and ensure that scheduling remained fair across the entire league. In order to accomplish this, a 66 game schedule was decided upon. This 66 game schedule was decided upon as a team could play each team in its conference 6 times, 3 times at home and 3 times on the road, and play the teams from the other conference in a home and home. This meant every team in a conference has the same schedule, creating a fair schedule to compare teams against one another. Although this schedule was created in order to ensure that teams had a balanced schedule, the divisional alignment of the SHL has ensured that teams that perform better ultimately miss out on the playoffs. In order to ensure that teams that deserve to make the playoffs are given a fair opportunity to make the playoffs, I am proposing two solutions to the problem. The first solution would be the more drastic of the two, but could be more palatable to the league as it wouldn't dilute our playoffs with teams who showed over a 66 game schedule they do not deserve to be in playoff contention. This solution would be divisional realignment, keeping the two conferences separate. The second solution that will be proposed and discussed will be in a separate article. Tune in then to find out!

Option 1: Divisional Realignment

As mentioned previously, with how the SHL currently schedules its games, each team within a conference plays a fair and balanced schedule. Buffalo plays 6 games against divisional opponents like Hamilton and Toronto, 6 games against Atlantic divisional opponents like Manhattan and Atlanta, and two games against teams in the West. With this fact established, the case for divisional realignment can be made. Toronto has shown this season that it ultimately deserves to be in the playoffs over teams like New England and Atlanta, with between 15-25 points more than each of these teams. Toronto currently is getting unlucky as it resides in the same division as Buffalo, Chicago, and Hamilton, the three best teams in the league this season, and the three best teams over the last two to three seasons. This is an issue as Toronto has shown that it is clearly one of the 6 best teams in the Eastern Conference, but due to FHMs limit of three teams per division making the playoffs, Toronto is unable to make a well deserved playoff run this season.

Divisional realignment would take into consideration a team's performance since the switch to FHM. Eastern Conference and Western Conference teams would each be ranked from 1-9 based on their average regular season points since the FHM switch. See below for an example. Note that due to the switch to 66 games, points collected during S53-S56 were divided into a points per game average and then multiplied by 66 to show their 66 game projection. Point totals were rounded down as a team can not have a decimal point of a point. Also, expansion teams only have two seasons of data for this and so a small sample size is noted. Also note that I just sort of projected S57 final point totals, I wrote this before teh SHL regular season was over with and 3-4 points in one season is not gonna swing any final tallies.

[Image: Screen_Shot_2021-01-05_at_11.14.35_PM.png]

Seen above is Edmonton's point totals if a 66 game schedule was played in each of the previous five seasons. Total point accumulation is shown, and an average of 92 points per season in a 66 game schedule means that on average Edmonton has been the best Western Conference team over the last 5 seasons.

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Western Conference Realignment

Total rankings for the Western Conference are shown below.

[Image: Screen_Shot_2021-01-05_at_11.17.48_PM.png]

Ranking teams from 1-9 allows for quick sorting into two, even divisions. Teams ranked 1, 4, 5, 8, and 9 are put in one division, while teams ranked 2, 3, 6, and 7 are in the second division. This is shown below.

[Image: Screen_Shot_2021-01-05_at_11.20.03_PM.png]

This would ultimately create two balanced divisions with entertaining playoff races in each division. Winnipeg, Seattle, and New Orleans would give us an entertaining race for the playoff seeds in the 4-team division, while the 5-team division would give us battles at the top and the bottom as Minnesota looks to catch Los Angeles and Edmonton looks to hold off Texas.

Using this season's standings, the 6 western conference playoff teams would be EDM, TEX, LAP, CGY, WPG, and NOL. This gives us no changes from the current Western Conference playoff teams. The only noticeable change is that CGY receives a bye, which as they project to finish above Texas, is not a massive change.

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Eastern Conference Realignment

Using the same method as above, we can also realign the Eastern Conference to better serve the teams that deserve to make the playoffs.

[Image: Screen_Shot_2021-01-06_at_12.55.51_AM.pn...height=213]

Here are the Eastern Conference Rankings based on Average Points per Season over the last five seasons. To a surprise of nobody, Hamilton, Buffalo, and Chicago have been the three best teams in the East based on their average regular season point totals. Realigning divisions would give us divisions that look like this:

[Image: Screen_Shot_2021-01-05_at_11.36.36_PM.png]

Projected playoff teams from East Division 1 would be Hamilton, Manhattan, and New England, while projected playoff teams from East Division 2 would be Buffalo, Chicago, and Toronto. Changes are Toronto replacing Atlanta, deserved after Toronto put up a season with 15 more points than Atlanta, and Chicago getting the bye over Manhattan after putting up roughly 25 more points than the Rage. Again, a deserved change. People may question as to why Toronto deserves to make the playoffs over Atlanta. Atlanta is indeed a solid team this year and Hotdog has shown himself to be an adept head GM. However, I'm trying to look at this solely on the numbers. Ignoring current season's point totals, let's look at how each team performed head to head and against Atlantic division opponents.

[Image: Screen_Shot_2021-01-06_at_12.27.00_AM.png]

[Image: Screen_Shot_2021-01-06_at_12.29.50_AM.png]

Against common divisional opponents, and against each other, Toronto has shown itself to be the better team, with 4 wins to only 2 losses when playing Atlanta, and a better record against Atlanta's divisional opponents than Atlanta itself.

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Ultimately, based on new byes and new teams to the playoff format, the playoffs would look as follows compared to regular standings:

[Image: Screen_Shot_2021-01-05_at_11.46.14_PM.png]

This creates a bit more juicier and even matchups, like Toronto vs Manhattan and Texas vs New Orleans rather than Buffalo vs New Orleans and Calgary vs Atlanta.

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The second round of the playoffs if all the favourites won would look much different as well;

[Image: Screen_Shot_2021-01-05_at_11.51.19_PM.png]

Major changes include Chicago now hosting Manhattan, a result thats deserved after putting up a 100+ point season. 3rd seeded Edmonton gets rewarded with the 3 seed by drawing the 90 point Renegades rather than the 103 point Stampede. These changes would reward the teams that have shown that they have been the top teams over the past 5 seasons, and would reward those up and coming teams like Toronto.

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Future Alignments

I do understand that these projected changes would not be a perfect solution, nor would it be a lasting solution. This is why I'm proposing that realignment take place every 5 seasons. SHL is a league with teams that rise and fall; assessing each team every 5 seasons would prevent the future Toronto's of the SHL from missing out on playoffs by giving them something to look forward to in case a team in their division never falls off. This alignment rewards the elite teams of the world and rewards the up and comers and so alignment is something the SHL should consider in order to improve upon the current playoff format.

This is ultimately just a thought provoking article to shed some light on the unfairness of SHL divisions to teams like Chicago who deserves a first-round bye and Toronto who ultimately just deserves a playoff spot.

Quote:1450 words plus my charts

*jeffie43* · 01-06-2021, 01:49 AM

Fish media best media pog

Nour is pretty hot ngl

ml002 · 01-06-2021, 02:04 AM

:greatlakes:

Credit to Copenhagen, Wasty, FlappyGiraffe, InciteHysteria, and caltroit_red_flames
[Image: MM4nqx6.png]

*Carpy48* · 01-06-2021, 02:55 AM

01-06-2021, 02:04 AMml002 Wrote: :greatlakes:

:drainthelakes:

Thelastheraclid · 01-06-2021, 06:35 AM

Excellent piece dude!

I really like the idea of realigning every 5 seasons. It may take some of the realism from the sim but it would definitely help with people staying engaged.

ACapitalChicago · 01-06-2021, 09:13 AM

This is a really good media piece! I think this would be a really cool way to balance out the league

S66 Damian Littleton

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*fishy* · 01-06-2021, 01:52 PM

01-06-2021, 06:35 AMThelastheraclid Wrote: Excellent piece dude!

I really like the idea of realigning every 5 seasons. It may take some of the realism from the sim but it would definitely help with people staying engaged.

Yeah, I understand that things are subject to change. We don’t want say BAP getting screwed by a stacked division in the future so reconsidering every 5 seasons would help with that! Glad you read it!

*fishy* · 01-06-2021, 01:53 PM

01-06-2021, 09:13 AMACapitalChicago Wrote: This is a really good media piece! I think this would be a really cool way to balance out the league

Thanks ACap! It would be bold but it rewards teams like Chicago and Toronto for their success. Would even be fun to see some actual conference finals of like Edmonton/Calgary and stuff!

nour · 01-06-2021, 02:08 PM

this is a really really great article, and actually a topic we’ve discussed in HO in the past (as early as like 12 hours ago haha), i have my qualms with this type of alignment but i do think you raise some great points, it’s definitely something for us to discuss and think about further. great work fish.

**First GM in SMJHL history to win 3 Four Star Cups back-to-back-to-back**

Slappydoodle · 01-06-2021, 02:10 PM

While I understand the reasoning and respect the effort put into it, I cannot see this as a viable solution. Divisional rivalries would be lost within this plan. Reshuffling every five seasons provides no consistency and creates barriers to deeper involvement.

ml002 · 01-06-2021, 02:33 PM

01-06-2021, 02:10 PMSlappydoodle Wrote: While I understand the reasoning and respect the effort put into it, I cannot see this as a viable solution. Divisional rivalries would be lost within this plan. Reshuffling every five seasons provides no consistency and creates barriers to deeper involvement.

Divisions barely matter we play our conference teams 6 times each regardless of division

Credit to Copenhagen, Wasty, FlappyGiraffe, InciteHysteria, and caltroit_red_flames
[Image: MM4nqx6.png]

*fishy* · 01-06-2021, 02:58 PM

01-06-2021, 02:33 PMml002 Wrote:
01-06-2021, 02:10 PMSlappydoodle Wrote: While I understand the reasoning and respect the effort put into it, I cannot see this as a viable solution. Divisional rivalries would be lost within this plan. Reshuffling every five seasons provides no consistency and creates barriers to deeper involvement.

Divisions barely matter we play our conference teams 6 times each regardless of division

lol literally, this is exactly why I pointed out how scheduling currently works

SlashACM · 01-06-2021, 03:08 PM

I really hate how east can play west in the playoffs outside of the finals

Slappydoodle · 01-06-2021, 03:53 PM

01-06-2021, 02:33 PMml002 Wrote:
01-06-2021, 02:10 PMSlappydoodle Wrote: While I understand the reasoning and respect the effort put into it, I cannot see this as a viable solution. Divisional rivalries would be lost within this plan. Reshuffling every five seasons provides no consistency and creates barriers to deeper involvement.

Divisions barely matter we play our conference teams 6 times each regardless of division

I would be in favor of strengthening divisional ties, not wiping them out altogether. Relative team strength ebbs and flows over the seasons. This is natural and almost inevitable. Even the few outliers that are either always good or always bad will eventually move towards the mean.

The solution just feels overly reactionary and arbitrary to me. If you want to make the playoffs, build consistently and look for ways to improve on the margins, draft better etc.

*fishy* · 01-06-2021, 04:15 PM

01-06-2021, 03:53 PMSlappydoodle Wrote:
01-06-2021, 02:33 PMml002 Wrote: Divisions barely matter we play our conference teams 6 times each regardless of division

I would be in favor of strengthening divisional ties, not wiping them out altogether. Relative team strength ebbs and flows over the seasons. This is natural and almost inevitable. Even the few outliers that are either always good or always bad will eventually move towards the mean.

The solution just feels overly reactionary and arbitrary to me. If you want to make the playoffs, build consistently and look for ways to improve on the margins, draft better etc.

Lol slappy use your head, if Calgary was in the Great Lakes division y’all wouldn’t be in the playoffs either.

@ml002 take notes, see how easy it is to be a playoff team? Smh

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