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*LilGainz901* · 03-04-2025, 06:19 PM

The S82 Rookie class has a chance to be one of the most significant draft classes to date within the SHL not only due to it's size but also because of the vast amount of talent within it. Within this article, I plan to look at the physical characteristics as well as look at who has had the largest impact so far this season.

Positional and Physical Characteristics

The S82 Rookie class currently has 119 players (as of March 1 2025) with a positional distribution as follows:
[Image: Position.png]

We can see there is currently a heavy focus on forwards, specifically wingers. This begs the question as to how will these forwards fit within future teams in the SHL. Will they be forced to play out of position? Or does this raise the need for even more expansion teams in the future to adjust for this increased forward presence. What we do know right now, is that these forwards must truly work hard to shine among the rest of the rookie class to get some attention from those SHL teams early because who knows what could happen within future seasons.

In terms of the physical characteristics (height and weight) of the S82 Rookie Class, it can be seen below.
[Image: height-weight.png]

Although physical characteristics don't seem to really matter within the SHL, we can still see that the physical characteristics mimic those of the NHL and seem to follow a normal distribution. The height seems to be focused around 5.8 feet (5' 10") to 6.4 feet (6' 5"), and the weight seems to primarily be within the range of 170 to 230 lbs.

Which Team has had the most Impact Rookies?

Now for the real reason why everyone is here, which S82 Rookie has had the greatest impact so far this season (as of March 3 2025). The current statistics used on the Index seem to be favoured towards forwards and aren't able to truly capture the impact a player can have on both sides of the rink, thus I created a formula to determine who has been the most impactful thus far. To determine this, I will only be looking at skaters as it reduces the number of assumptions that we need to make within the analysis. With regards to the analysis, the only condition for a player to be considered eligible is that they must have played at least 20 games. This is improve the applicability of the results.

To determine who has had the greatest impact, I created what is called a Composite Player Performance Score (CPPS). Essentially, this score can be broken down into three components:

Offensive Impact - The impact a player has on offense
Defensive Impact - The impact a player has on defence
TOI Adjustment - An Adjustment factor applied so that those who have higher TOI per game aren't given an unfair advantage. This component also allows for overall player efficiency to be included within the performance score.

The components can be calculated via the following formulae:

Code:
Offensive Score (OPPS) = (Goals + Assists + 0.5×PowerPlay Points + 0.5×Game-Winning Goals) ÷ Games Played

Defensive Score  = (Plus/Minus + 0.5×Hits + 0.5×Blocked Shots + Takeaways−Giveaways) ÷ Games Played

Time on Ice Adjustment = (Average TOI per Game) ÷ (Team’s Average TOI per Player per Game)

From these three components, the CPPS was calculated as follows:
[Image: CPPS.png]

The parameters used within the Offensive and Defensive Score were determined based my personal opinion, thus, changing these parameters would yield different results. However, I believe these parameters are a good indicator of impact on both sides of the ice, perhaps, the weighting of them could be up to discussion though.

Using the CPPS, I first determined which team had the largest average rookie CPPS score, and interestingly enough it was the Kelowna Knights with a CPPS of 1.35. The lowest being the Yukon Malamutes with a CPPS of 0.46. This essentially shows that the rookies on the Knights on average have had the most overall impact on the ice. The CPPS of the other teams can be seen from the figure below:

[Image: Picture4.png]

Additionally, we can break it down to see a team's offensive and defensive score. From the figure below, we can see that the Thunder Bay Walleye have had the highest Offensive Performance Score (0.75) , and the Kelowna Knights have had the highest Defensive Performance Score (2.17). The OPPS and DPPS of the other teams can be seen from the figure below:

[Image: Picture3.png]

Based on this analysis thus far, it definitely looks like the Knights are the team to watch out for in the future as their rookies have been performing very well, especially on the defensive end. But, now the real question is still to be answered.

Who has had the greatest impact?

Before we go into that, here are some general statistics about the rookie class. The average CPPS was 0.78, with the average Offensive Score being 0.56 and the average Defensive Score being 1.00. This could point to the argument that the CPPS may be too focused on defensive characteristics, so some tinkering may be required in the future but regardless it is the analysis that I chose to use for this report.

Now for the grand reveal, the player who has the most impact thus far within the season is...

Cole Slaw on the Vancouver Whalers with a CPPS of 1.60 (OPPS of 0.63 and DPPS of 2.56) with Aartholomew Bittokallio Lorequavius from the Knights closely behind with a CPPS of 1.56 (OPPS of 0.49 and DPPS of 2.64), and Kimar Timonen from the Highlanders with a CPPS of 1.50 (OPPS of 0.45 and DPPS of 2.55).

As expected, all three of these players are defensemen which does raise questions as to whether the offensive score should be modified. Perhaps this could be fine-tuned in a future media piece.

The player who has had the greatest offensive impact thus far within the season is Patrick Rail from Anchorage Armada with a OPPS of 1.07. In second, we have Jean-Luc Gagnon with an OPPS of 0.95, and just behind him we have Leon Dusty with an OPPS of 0.95.

The player who has had the greatest defensive impact thus far within the season is Aartholomew Bittokallio Lorequavius with a DPPS of 2.64, followed by Cole Slaw with a DPPS of 2.56, and Kimar Timonen with a DPPS of 2.55.

The Offensive and Defensive Player Performance Scores for the rest of the S82 Rookie Class can be seen in the figure below:

[Image: Picture5.png]

Limitations
As mentioned within this article, a large limitation is the focus on a defensive characteristics compared to offensive characteristics so that is something that must be modified in the future. Additionally, the weighting of the parameters used within the OPPS and DPPS may need to be changed so that the score is more of an accurate depiction of impact.

Further Information
If desired, I can provide a full spreadsheet of each player's CPPS. Could be a cool tool just to see where everyone is at; reply to this thread if it is of interest and I will see if I can edit this post and add it in.

EDIT: Here is the Spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1...ue&sd=true

SIDE NOTE
Just a side note for the evaluators, this is my first piece of media so I am hoping it will be eligible for the x2 Bonus.

visceralpotamus · 03-04-2025, 06:54 PM

Love this! I wonder how some different stats like corsi might impact this? Some team impacts (eg +/- on newfoundland vs st louis) or how much pp time someone gets on a rebuild vs contender. That said, this analysis says Thunder bay has a top 3 rookie class, so I would say your analysis is flawless and dont change a thing

visceralpotamus · 03-04-2025, 06:54 PM

ALso would love to see the spreadsheet

jason97 · 03-04-2025, 07:24 PM

I'm a sucker for charts, great piece!

***bluesfan55*** · 03-04-2025, 09:55 PM

this patrick rayl guy is pretty cool ngl

Ashes · 03-05-2025, 03:32 AM

sick article, love to see detailed stat breakdowns like this, good work

one thing - you're missing benoit jean-luc boucher from the walleye, he's a rookie who has played 38 games this season so he should be eligible

i was curious about what his offensive impact would be, so i tried to do the math and got 1.22895... so either my math is wrong or he is a statistical anomaly

*LilGainz901* · 03-05-2025, 04:15 AM

03-05-2025, 03:32 AMAshes Wrote: sick article, love to see detailed stat breakdowns like this, good work

one thing - you're missing benoit jean-luc boucher from the walleye, he's a rookie who has played 38 games this season so he should be eligible

i was curious about what his offensive impact would be, so i tried to do the math and got 1.22895... so either my math is wrong or he is a statistical anomaly

I'm not sure how I missed him but you are right, he would definitely be up there for offensive impact. Without the TOI adjustment, I have his offensive score at around 1.12. For reference, I got my stats and rookie list from this spreadsheet which also does not seem to include him for some reason: S82 Rookies - Google Sheets

***hockeyiscool*** · 03-05-2025, 04:26 AM

Great read!

Prayl07 · 03-05-2025, 09:36 AM

Great article! I'm just hoping Rail doesn't fall off the..... rails

anywheresoundsnice · 03-09-2025, 03:29 PM

Awesome work!!

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