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FuzzSHL · 03-04-2024, 08:53 PM

Hello SHL! I'm back with my definitely-can't-keep-a-schedule timed post related to the Filver Score system that was developed with the help of @esilverm. Below are the series preview snapshots for each of the first round matchups in both the Eastern Conference and Western Conference. For the five series that, as of the time of writing, are tied at 2-2, I will also be posting the updated odds for each series as well as providing the preview odds.

Western Conference
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The first matchup in the Western Conference pits the seventh overall Winnipeg Aurora against the thirteenth overall New Orleans Specters. This is the first time that these two teams have matched up in the playoffs since S72, where Winnipeg swept New Orleans en route to a Challenge Cup victory that saw them only lose three games in their entire playoff run. During S75, New Orleans actually won the regular season series 4-3 while outscoring Winnipeg 29-26. Despite this, Winnipeg finished the season with a Filver rating over 600 points higher than New Orleans, where their ratings ranked fifth and eleventh respectively. At the time of writing, this series is tied at two games a piece, with Winnipeg winning games 1 and 3 by scores of 3-2 in each game, while New Orleans took games 2 and 4 by scores of 4-1 and 3-1. While Winnipeg is still heavily favored in the series, New Orleans has improved their odds from 27% to 34%. It is going to be a very tough road ahead for the Specters if they plan on upsetting their division rivals.
[Image: WPGv-NOLg5.png]

In the other Central Division matchup we have the fourth overall Texas Renegades going up against the fourteenth overall Chicago Syndicate. This was one of the three first round matchups that ended in a sweep, and there’s not much surprise here in the eyes of the model. Texas has the third highest Filver rating in the league behind Western Conference foes Los Angeles and Edmonton. On the flipside, Chicago’s Filver rating is 16th in the league, the second lowest in the playoffs, only ahead of Minnesota.

Our third Western Conference matchup, and first involving a Pacific Division team, pits the President’s Trophy winning Edmonton Blizzard against the 15th overall Minnesota Monarchs. Edmonton’s second ranked Filver rating wasn’t enough to bring home the sweep against Minnesota’s 18th ranked Filver rating, which is lower than the non-playoff teams Calgary and Manhattan. Despite that, Minnesota was able to take more wins from Edmonton in this series (at the time of writing) than they did during the S75 regular season. Even with an even series heading into game 5, the model does not give Minnesota much more of a chance than they started with, up to 14% from ~6%. This will be an interesting series to keep an eye on as Edmonton attempts to avoid a second consecutive season being upset by a significantly lower seed.
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Our last Western Conference matchup pits the second overall Los Angeles Panthers against the eleventh overall San Francisco Pride. Thanks to a thirteen-game win streak to end the season, the Panthers boast the league’s top Filver rating, beating out division rival and President’s Trophy winners in Edmonton. Meanwhile, San Francisco’s Filver rating sits at thirteenth in the league. While a sweep was technically the third likeliest option based on the model, it wasn’t far off of the second likeliest outcome with only a 0.36% difference between a sweep and a six-game finish. San Francisco has showed immense promise in recent seasons having made the Western Conference final more recently than either Los Angeles or Edmonton, knocking both out of the playoffs last season en route to a Conference Final loss to Winnipeg. I can’t foresee the Pride staying down too long, but an early exit this season has them looking towards the future.

Eastern Conference
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Our first Eastern Conference matchup pits former Great Lakes Division rivals against each other as the eighth overall Buffalo Stampede play host to the ninth overall Hamilton Steelhawks. Buffalo is favored by the model a bit more heavily than most would have assumed with a Filver rating that ranks sixth in the league while Hamilton’s ranks tenth. Hamilton finished the season on a 4-5-1 run that saw them lose to Manhattan twice and get shutout by Toronto 8-0. Those three upsets likely drive their rating down a bit harder than where their actual strength lies, but whatever issues Hamilton ran into in the home stretch of the regular season seem to have been sorted out as they have outscored Buffalo 18-14 in the four games of the series thus far. A .919 save percentage by starting netminder Luka Nogoalov is keeping the Steelhawks afloat while three-time McBride nominee Casey Fantobens has struggled with a .873 save percentage in the series. Still, the model likes Buffalo’s chances, so this will be an interesting finish for both teams.
[Image: BUFv-HAMg5.png]

Next up we have the sixth overall New England Wolfpack playing host to the twelfth overall Tampa Bay Barracuda. Despite being separated by sixteen points in the standings, their Filver ratings weren’t too far apart with New England’s ranking eighth and Tampa Bay’s ranking twelfth. So, despite the model favoring New England at ~62% prior to the series starting, I am personally not too surprised to see the series sitting even at two games apiece. Tampa Bay’s odds don’t sit much better than they did at the beginning of the series, only up to ~42%, but five goals from Max Carnage and a .906 save percentage from Tibuk Soonika give the Barracuda a lot of hope as Carnage is matching the performance of former-Mexico winner Ivan Lacksamus (5-2-7) while Soonika is outdueling future Hall-of-Famer Olof Karsikko (.883 sv%).
[Image: NEWv-TBBg5.png]

The third overall Philadelphia Forge came into the postseason as the highest ranked Eastern Conference team both by regular season standings and by Filver rating. Meanwhile, the Toronto North Stars were the lowest team in the standings to make the playoffs, sitting in 17th behind non-playoff team Calgary. Their Filver rating was better than both the Minnesota Monarchs and Chicago Syndicate, however, so there was some hope for the North Stars heading into the series. Led by former Jesster nominee Aumy Junior II, Toronto just wasn’t able to get it done against the Forge, who made quick worth of the Canadian crew in four games. The Forge put 31 goals in the back of Toronto’s net, a figure that no other playoff team has yet to match and a number that Toronto will want to significantly lower if they hope to make deeper playoff runs in the future.

Last, but certainly not least, we have the fifth overall Baltimore Platoon playing host to the tenth overall [/b]Atlanta Inferno[/b]. By Filver rating, this is the closest matchup we have in the first round this season with Baltimore ranking seventh and Atlanta ranking ninth. The model reflected this prior to the series beginning, giving Baltimore 55% odds to win the series. Currently, as the series sits even at two games apiece, those odds have lowered to ~53%. Anything could happen in this series, but Atlanta will either need their forwards to step up to the plate to help sophomore Ally Mathieson in net (.955 sv%), or Mathieson will have to continue the Jesster-snub revenge tour and continue to shut down the league’s sixth highest scoring regular season offense. Meanwhile, Sir Devoir in net for Baltimore hasn’t performed too shabby, either, with a .917 save percentage to his name. Even for the objective fan, this series will be an exciting one to follow.
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