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S53 WFT #4 - Make The Case
#46

Toronto will "beat out" Tampa Bay for the worst team in the league. Tampa Bay has the dubious honor right now, but even though Toronto has picked it up a bit, that goal differential is downright scary. It's possible TBB finds the net more than a couple times next time they face off.

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#47

Code:
The player with the most assists in this season will have the most assists in a season in SHL history (current record is Elias Armia's 60 from the Inflation Era in S11)

Soft Against - Slap McShotty has the highest assist pace in the league, and it's conceivable that he could get close to the 60 mark, but he's a bit short now. With Wagstrom's goal scoring rate, I could see a few more offensive explosions against weak teams vaulting him ahead of his current pace, but I do doubt he'll hit 60.

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#48

For: Detroit will probably win the 4 Star Cup. They drafted spectacularly in the S52 SMJHL Draft and that is paying of for them now in dividends. Edward Williams is really leading the pack with an unbelievable year and he will lead them to the promised land.

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#49

Code:
The Los Angeles Panthers will finish the regular season atop the Western Conference

Against

Here is what the standings currently look like out west:

Panthers: 25-8-3 record, 53 points, 14 games remaining
Blizzard: 23-8-3 record, 49 points, 16 games remaining
Dragons: 21-9-3 record, 45 points, 17 games remaining


And here are the full remaining schedules of each of these three teams:

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I am only going to analyze these three teams since the Pride and Specters are just too far back at this point and without any major changes they are just not going to pass 3-4 other teams.  As you can see, the Panthers have the shortest schedule remaining with only 14 games remaining and the Dragons have the longest remaining schedule with 17.  The Dragons not only have the toughest schedule with opponents win % at 0.566, but also have ten games that are back to back.  For the second games of the back to back, Dragons opponents have a 0.598 win%, which is the highest of these three teams.  Based on that alone, I predict the Dragons will not pass either the Blizzard or the Panthers.

Now we are down to two teams.  The Panthers’ and Blizzard remaining opponents are almost of equal strength overall at 0.517 and 0.518 win% respectively.  The Panthers remaining schedule is brutal with 10 of their final 14 games back to back.  The Blizzard have 16 games remaining, but their schedule is a bit more spaced out with half of their remaining games coming back to back.  Comparing the win% of the 2nd back to back game opponents makes it clear that the Blizzard have a big advantage facing weaker teams overall of 0.474 win% versus the Panthers’ opponents 0.530 win%.  Couple that with the fact that the Panthers play the Blizzard in Edmonton twice on the second game of a back to back and I conclude that the Blizzard will be first in the Western Conference at season’s end.

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#50

Code:
Someone with fewer than 425 TPE will win the SMJHL MVP award

Yeah, this one seems likely. Edward Williams is leading in like 5 different categories and he is a 350 capped player. I think he'd have to get injured (can't happen) or someone would have to have a seriously good rest of the season in order for him to not be a leader in multiple areas and win MVP.

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#51

"The SMJHL's West is better than the East"


Depends on your criteria I suppose. Just by looking at the standings and teams thus far, the East has the best and worst teams, while the West is more competitive. Then again, if you remove Detroit from the picture in the East, the range between the best and worst team by points is actually equal. Detroit's season has certainly been stellar so far, but that doesn't mean the East is definitively better than the West. 

If you look at future talent, I would argue that the East has a higher potential. Teams like Maine and Carolina are struggling right now, but they both have had early draft picks that could pay dividends in the future. Meanwhile in the West, you have teams with already-strong rosters like Kelowna and Anaheim that could be on the decline. 

Let's take soccer as an example. There is always debate about which is the "best" league: English Premier League, Spanish La Liga, German Bundesliga, or Italian Serie A. Many use the argument that competitiveness = better. You see this in the Bundesliga, where the past few seasons you have seen multiple teams challenging for the title. The 2019-20 season had 3 or 4 teams challenging for the title. The Serie A was dominanted by Juventus for years, but that has been changing, with other teams coming into the mix. La Liga was notoriously the best league for years, as Spanish teams kept winning European trophies, deeming their country the best in Europe. The Premier League was arguably the most competitive for years (in terms of title winners), but the past couple seasons it has become a Manchester City vs. Liverpool fight for the title. Overall, I say that a league is better based on the teams that have the potential to win the title.

If we use that standard in the SMJHL, I would say that the East is better than the West. Before the season started, the favorites for the Four Star Cup were Detroit, St. Louis, and Kelowna. The East is stronger right now, and it looks like it will continue to be that way in the future. 

AGAINST

 
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#52
(This post was last modified: 04-17-2020, 01:09 PM by leviadan.)

Code:
Detroit will win the 4-Star Cup

I'm going to say for here, but maybe not for the obvious reason. We've definitely had a hot start and a lighter schedule than some teams, but we've been continuously performing. The only team that I haven't seen us consistently get wins off of is Anchorage, so a finals against them would certainly be a tough go. That being said I've seen the Knights win 3/4 against them and really give them a hard time.

I feel pretty confident in our record against every team in the J except for ANC, but both us and them have to actually make it to the finals for it to be a concern. When it comes to us making it in the East, I think we have an easier route than ANC does in the West. Nothing is guaranteed, but I think the odds are in our favour.

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#53

The New Orleans Specters will be the best SHL team to miss the playoffs

AGAINST: I believe NOLA will actually squeak into the playoffs, they are currently tied for the last spot in the West and seem to be on the upswing while SFP has taken a bit of a dive. Ultimately either SFP or CHI will be the best of the non-playoff teams when all is said and done

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#54

Andrej Doskocil is the toughest guy in the SHL

For. This man is the defenseman defenseman and has only one competitor at this time for the illusttrious reward at the end of the season. The Rage are built on grit and this guy is really showing it htis season.

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#55

Quote:The New Orleans Specters will be the best SHL team to miss the playoffs

For. Thanks to an incredible amount of back to back games in the season's first month we basically had to rotate our goalies 50/50 and we were constantly playing tired (often against rested teams). That set us back but mostly I would say we are still feeling out FHM with tactics, etc. But we have a lot of talent on our roster and it is going to hurt to miss the playoffs for the first time in my career.

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#56
(This post was last modified: 04-17-2020, 01:35 PM by bluesfan55.)

04-17-2020, 12:56 PMAephino Wrote: "The SMJHL's West is better than the East"


Depends on your criteria I suppose. Just by looking at the standings and teams thus far, the East has the best and worst teams, while the West is more competitive. Then again, if you remove Detroit from the picture in the East, the range between the best and worst team by points is actually equal. Detroit's season has certainly been stellar so far, but that doesn't mean the East is definitively better than the West. 

If you look at future talent, I would argue that the East has a higher potential. Teams like Maine and Carolina are struggling right now, but they both have had early draft picks that could pay dividends in the future. Meanwhile in the West, you have teams with already-strong rosters like Kelowna and Anaheim that could be on the decline. 

Let's take soccer as an example. There is always debate about which is the "best" league: English Premier League, Spanish La Liga, German Bundesliga, or Italian Serie A. Many use the argument that competitiveness = better. You see this in the Bundesliga, where the past few seasons you have seen multiple teams challenging for the title. The 2019-20 season had 3 or 4 teams challenging for the title. The Serie A was dominanted by Juventus for years, but that has been changing, with other teams coming into the mix. La Liga was notoriously the best league for years, as Spanish teams kept winning European trophies, deeming their country the best in Europe. The Premier League was arguably the most competitive for years (in terms of title winners), but the past couple seasons it has become a Manchester City vs. Liverpool fight for the title. Overall, I say that a league is better based on the teams that have the potential to win the title.

If we use that standard in the SMJHL, I would say that the East is better than the West. Before the season started, the favorites for the Four Star Cup were Detroit, St. Louis, and Kelowna. The East is stronger right now, and it looks like it will continue to be that way in the future. 

AGAINST

against
to use your football comparison, yes, most leagues now have greater transparency. and the Eastern Division is the Premier League, as St. Louis City FC and Detroit FC are running away from the rest of the east. Newfoundland City FC's hot start has cooled off and we shouldn't be getting into Maine Villa and Carolina City. There's a major separation between second and third and it's just not as close as the west. The Western Division is Serie A in this case. Anchorage Calcio is on top, Inter Kelowna is 2 points back, and even SS Anaheim are in the race for the title. Plus, we all know that Maine Villa wouldn't beat Hellas Vancouver.
I decided, and this isn't a great methodology but I think it proves my point, to add up the point total from every team in every division. The East? 167, buoyed by Detroit. The West? 174. In fact, the top 3 teams in the West are better than the East's second team (St. Louis has 38 points compared to Anchorage's 42, Kelowna's 40, and Anaheim's 39). The West is clearly the better division due to this. It boasts 3 of the top 4 teams in the league, and the bottom teams in the West are better than the bottom teams in the East.

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#57
(This post was last modified: 04-17-2020, 02:37 PM by roastpuff.)

Quote:The SMJHL's West is better than the East

AGAINST. So sorry, that's wrong. The East is the stronger conference due to the stack of three teams at the top - Detroit, St Louis and Newfoundland. Those three teams makes the East stronger as the only team in the Western conference that can really stand up to them in a 7-game series is Anchorage. Vancouver and Colorado, might be slightly better than Carolina and Maine, but that's still not enough to tip the balance the other way.



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#58

I'll try and do as many of these as I feel qualified for.

- Detroit will win the Four Star Cup.

FOR. They can lock up a playoff spot today with a single point or a Carolina loss in any fashion, and that happening before the trade deadline is simply incredible. Their first-round playoff series will be Maine or Carolina, and while both of those teams have beaten Detroit I don't think they have the depth to take down the Falcons. The semifinal series should be the winner of the first-round series between the Scarecrows and the Berserkers. St. Louis has brought in Indigo Trevino to try and make one last Cup run before their contending window slams shut, so that should be a fun series to watch. On the Berserkers' side, while Cale Amundsen has performed admirably I just think Detroit is too deep and has too much TPE for Newfoundland to topple them. Anchorage looked to be running away with the West before they hit the skids with a brutal schedule, and they have given Detroit fits at times, but I think the Falcons will ultimately end up hoisting the Four Star Cup at the end of the season.

- Toronto will finish below Tampa and last in the league.

FOR. Toronto is only five points back of the Barracuda, but they will not catch them. The North Stars' two goalies have faced 1,872 shots to Tampa's 1,424 shots against, and that differential is simply insurmountable. I don't care how good Harry Carpet is, if a team averages 60 shots against for 2/3 of a season they're not finishing anywhere but in last place.

- Someone with fewer than 425 TPE will win the SMJHL MVP award.

FOR. The 425s that could possibly win this award in my view are Mitchell van der Heijden and Elizabeth Doyle. For Mitchell van der Heijden, while having a very impressive season, his offense hit the skids when the team did and he's now only at 30 points in 34 games. Doyle has performed very well for the Scarecrows, but part of their winning ways can also be credited to players like Mega Tron and Ruslan Zaporozhets going off. I think the odds-on favourite right now is Edward Williams, a 350 TPE player. Keeping a 1.5 PPG pace through this point in the season is just absurd. Other candidates that could get votes include Cal Covid and Cale Amundsen for carrying their teams to wins, and both goalies are rookies.

- The New Orleans Specters will be the best SHL team to miss the playoffs.

FOR. Their current competition for "best of the teams going home" are San Francisco and Chicago. The Syndicate are three points back of New Orleans with a worse defensive game, while the Pride should be able to get in. San Francisco currently has a +16 goal differential to New Orleans' -2, indicating that they should be able to win games more consistently down the stretch to get into the dance.

- The season's assist leader will break the SHL record for assists in a season, currently standing at 60.

AGAINST. Only one player, Slap McShotty, is even close to an assist-per-game pace, and he'll need to pick that up and get 28 more assists in 17 games to even tie the record. I just can't see it happening.

- One team, Texas or New England, will have 0 OT losses.

FOR, and I'm going to say it's Texas. While they've played in thirteen one-goal games and had two extra-time victories, their defense still isn't very good which means they're unlikely to even get to the extra frame. New England will play the good teams close and there's a good chance that they'll be taken out in an overtime at some point.

- The SMJHL's West is better than the East.

AGAINST. Especially with St. Louis buying Trevino at the trade deadline, the league's two best teams are in the Eastern Conference in the Falcons and Scarecrows. The West has some really good teams, but Anchorage has slid a bit due to a bad schedule, Kelowna and Colorado seem to be underperforming for whatever reason, Anaheim is lacking on defense and Vancouver has punched above their weight. Maine and Carolina weigh down the SMJHL's Eastern Conference, but the top of the conference swings it for me.

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#59

Detroit will win the 4-Star Cup

FOR... this team is just disgustingly stacked and if I was a betting man this is the obvious choice. Obviously anything can happen, however, easy favorites.

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#60

Detroit will win the 4-Star Cup

Against. Detroit seems to frequently have stellar regular seasons but can't get it done in the playoffs when it matters. Plus, St. Louis is obviously the better team. I mean, have you seen their roster? Stacked from front to back. Just the best damn team that ever teamed in all of teaming.

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