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***sve7en*** · 07-03-2020, 11:57 AM

[1191 words]

This is part one of [spoilers] in a deep dive on the MVP race candidates as selected by myself and fellow SJHN reporters and analysts. I wanted to take a holistic look at the various players and storylines that have all converged at potential nominations and votes, much like my group at Hockey Talk Tonight did last season when discussing the MvdH / Williams and Laggerfield / Wagstrom races. This season especially, the competition for the title of Most Valuable Player is incredibly tight, and it only gets harder to decipher when you consider the various definitions of the award. The companion piece on offensive, defensive, and total point share used for some of these metrics will be released simultaneously with the final player review.

Let’s begin.

Cillian Kavanagh

@takethehorizon

The goalie of the year

Stats (league rank in parentheses):
Line
Games Played . . . . . . 39 (t-3)
Wins . . . . . . . . . . 22 (3)
Losses . . . . . . . . . 11 (t-3)
Overtime Losses . . . .  6 (1)
Shutouts . . . . . . . .  6 (1)

Detailed
Shots Against . . . . . . . . . . 983 (6)
Saves . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 899 (6)
Goals Allowed . . . . . . . . . .  84 (4th among starters)
Save % . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.915 (4th overall, 2nd among starters)
Average Goals Against . . . . . . 2.14   (2nd overall, 1st among starters)

Advanced
Game Rating . . . . . . . . . . . 69 (t-6 overall, t-4th among starters)
GSAA . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.754 (3)
GSAA/60 . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0.146 (3)
Goalie (and Total) Point Share . . 6.29 (12th overall, 6th among goalies)
% Team Point Share . . . . . . . . 0.083 (t-31st overall, t-9th among goalies)

Behind every great man...
Peter Ramsey
11 GP, 10-0-1, 0.942 SV%, 1.35 GA, 2 SO, 8.55 GSAA

The story

While Kelowna now looks like one of the top teams in the league, that wasn’t always the case. The S53 western conference champions faced the loss of their 19 point, 19 minute per game, 2nd defensive pair (Alex Ranch and Ebenezer Virtanen) as well as four of their top six point scorers (Andrey Barbashev, Gylfi Eriksson, Kalevolaripaavo Kaspertommevisnapuu, and Morgan Forestier). Losing six core pieces of your cup finals appearing roster is always going to be tough but they still had their ace in the hole, the league leader in wins, a goalie that you could plan an entire season around.

Cillian Kavanagh.

Kelowna dropped their first game of the season, and then started their tear, scoring a point in their next 10 as they exploded to a 16-4-2 start by the time we reached mid November. With Kelowna not being as worried about Vancouver, Kavanagh’s first three breaks were the Kelowna matchups that spurred Ramsey to a 3-0 start as the Knights’ ace took on the rest of the league and found his form from last season when he found his first two shutouts of the season against Anchorage in an eight game stretch where he let in just 9 goals on 211 shots (good for a 0.957 save percentage) and his worst game in that stretch was a 0.913 save percentage. Cillian would see himself rested frequently against teams with struggling offenses in order for him to challenge the league’s best offenses night after night such as when he went on a similarly strong tear, going 6-1-3 in 10 games against playoff teams at the end of the season until Kelowna clinched the Laurifer trophy.

The MVP moment

December 27th, 2020 - Kelowna, British Columbia
Newfoundland Berserkers @ Kelowna Knights

The two frontrunners in the league were due to square off in classic unstoppable force versus immovable object fashion. Newfoundland was in town after winning 4 of their last 5 where they put up 17 goals against some of the best goalies in the league. 5 on Antonescu, 3 on Borro, 3 on Redacted, 4 on Jobin, and 2 in a loss against Bloomfield. Beyond that, Minamino had been looking unstoppable and the Berserkers were averaging over 3.50 goals per game as they took four days off before the trip out west. Kelowna on the other hand, had lost 4 of their last 5, and was seeing Newfoundland slip farther and farther away in the points race. All four losses were to the different teams in their conference and the only win was against a St. Louis team that was starting to cool off. Something needed to happen to get Kelowna back on the right track if they wanted to keep their top seed, chase down Newfoundland, and go into the playoffs strong.

So of course, who else but Kavanagh would rise to the challenge? In a defensive slugfest of a first, neither Kavanagh or Newfoundland’s Admunsen was tested much as they stopped eight and seven shots respectively. Newfoundland found their offensive rhythm after that though, rattling off 13 more in the second period, and yet Cilian would not yield. Kelowna took the lead in the second, and nervous Kelowna fans watched Newfoundland press the pace of the game even harder in the third. 12 shots later, and Newfoundland still stood frustrated and scoreless at the doing of the Knight’s ace. Even in shots, Kelowna took a 2-0 lead that night, as Kavanagh iced the red hot Berserkers with a 33 save, shutout, first star performance that could easily be the most memorable game of Kelowna’s season.

Why not Cilian?

Kavanagh had a team built to limit the pressure put on him at times, and the case is definitely there when you look at the stats. By the numbers, he was 6th in shots faced among starters, last among starters in shots against per minute, and his backup was last among backups in shots against per minute and had the best goals against in the league in his 11 games. The defense could be why both Kelowna goalies were so impressive this season.

Why you’re picking Cilian Kavanagh for MVP

You recognize that Kavanagh’s GSAA shows him to be the best goalie on a team that wasn’t hemorrhaging shots resulting in a padded GSAA, and that his numbers aren’t inflated from games against weaker teams because those starts went to the backup. You believe that Kavanagh’s ability to dominate games with a league leading shutout total and second best save percentage demonstrate his value to an incredible league best Kelowna defense that wouldn’t be the same without him.

***sve7en*** · 07-03-2020, 12:01 PM

You can find the all of the entries in the series below:

The Case for the S54 J MVP - Ryuuji Minamino
The Case for the S54 J MVP - Cillian Kavanagh

*Katth* · 07-03-2020, 01:31 PM

S50 Challenge Cup Finals Game 7
[Image: gNFVjT6.png]

Blues · 07-03-2020, 01:31 PM

kav <3

Snoopdogg · 07-03-2020, 02:03 PM

This is all you Kava! Knights

***Wally*** · 07-05-2020, 02:08 PM

"...and that his numbers aren’t inflated from games against weaker teams because those starts went to the backup."

@sve7en Yet all but one of his shutouts (2-0 win over NFL) came against the bottom four of the league.

*takethehorizon* · 07-20-2020, 01:26 PM

07-05-2020, 02:08 PMWally Wrote: "...and that his numbers aren’t inflated from games against weaker teams because those starts went to the backup."

@sve7en Yet all but one of his shutouts (2-0 win over NFL) came against the bottom four of the league.

[Image: giphy.gif?cid=ecf05e4741cm70ek6yj8dlawlm...=giphy.gif]

Sorry I missed this @sve7en, great read!

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