Login

Dextaria · 11-08-2020, 11:24 PM

Ready for Grading

[Image: SJHN_Blue_lightgrey_wordmark.png]

This season the SJHN are doing season previews for each round of the SMJHL playoffs. Arkz, Shuff and I have analyzed each matchup and made our predictions while Juke will use the series stats to calculate the percent chance that each team will win the series (Example from last season’s SHL Challenge Cup final: here). These graphs will be updated daily so be sure to check back every so often to see what are your team chances!

NEWFOUNDLAND BERSERKERS

Shuff: Looking to go back to back, Newfoundland is in a good position coming off a 6 game series win against the Armada, and lost just once to the Timber. A 8-3 start to the playoffs, incidentally the same as Vancouver’s. It takes a special team to go back to back and it sure seems that Newfoundland may just have that.

Arkz: Listen, this is pretty surprising. Not only is it incredibly difficult to even get to the finals in back to back seasons, the Newfoundland Berserkers made it even more difficult on themselves. They were basically dead and buried at the All-Star break, and now here they are in a position to potentially capture back-to-back championships. First they took care of business over the Maine Timber 5-1, only stumbling once in a 5-2 loss but still finishing with a 19-12 goal differential. Against Anchorage, the Berserkers went 4-2 with a 18-13 differential. As expected for a team with such a championship pedigree, they saved their best hockey for the playoffs.

Dex: This Berserkers team may not have the offense that the Whalers seem to have, but their defense and goaltending have been best in the league this playoffs so far. This past series they held an offensive powerhouse like the Armada to just a little over 2 goals per game, with a save percentage at 0.910. A big part of that was certainly Cale Amundsen who has been the playoffs MVP for the team in my opinion. I’m sure both Shuff and Arkz will be talking about him for their Player to Watch and Goalie Report.

SHUFF’S PLAYER TO WATCH: CALE AMUNDSEN
After standing on his head for the past 2 series, as Arkz says below, Amundsen is going to need to have another great series. The Whalers have had large advantages in shots in almost every game this postseason, it’ll be up to Amundsen to keep them at bay.

ARKZ’S GOALIE REPORT
As mentioned above, the Berserkers have been able to score consistently and put away teams on offensive production alone. However, backstopping that offense is the likely Goalie of the Year winner in Cale Amundsen. Cale has gone 8-3, with a 2.17 GAA and a ridiculous .936 SV%. If the Berserkers are able to pull this thing off, Amundsen has to be on the shortlist for playoff MVP, and the potent Vancouver offense will have some trouble ahead with Cale in net.

DEX’S SPECIAL TEAMS ANALYSIS
This Berserkers team didn’t have the best special teams in the regular season; however, I would say that the Newfoundland Berserkers have turned it up during the playoffs. Their powerplay in their series against Anchorage was at 25% while their penalty kill was at around 84.6%. So in addition to their defense and goaltending, the Newfoundland Berserkers could look to capitalize on their special teams.

VANCOUVER WHALERS Whalers

Shuff: I wish I could say I called Wile Coyote's hat trick in game seven. I certainly did not. The Whalers struggled a bit with the Kraken last round, coming up short in games 2 and 3 to fall behind 2-1, then dropped game 6 and had to close it in seven. Newfoundland might be worse than Carolina by the standings, but the Whalers are coming in colder than normal, and may be a bit tired after that long series. Might that mean a game for St. Ark over Redacted? Perhaps. It more than likely will not, but a tired Whaler team may be there for the taking by the defending champs.

Arkz: Well, that looked dicey there for a minute huh? After sweeping the upstart Kelowna Knights, the Whalers ran into a brick wall in the Carolina Kraken. In a titanic matchup against the two top seeds in the playoffs, the Whalers were stretched to seven games. In the series against Carolina, the Whalers finished with a 25-21 advantage in goals, with both teams trading some boom-or-bust games. Still, Vancouver was able to clutch it out and make it to the finals, but barely by the skin of their teeth. If there was any air of invincibility to the top team in the regular season going into the playoffs, they’ve certainly lost it now.

Dex: As both Shuff and Arkz said, although the Vancouver Whalers have made it to the finals, it’s certainly not a one-sided battle like against the Knights. The Whalers showed that they aren’t invincible and I expect this series to be similar to the one against the Carolina Kraken. I’d give the Whalers the offense edge heading into the series, averaging over 40 shots a game in their last series. However, defensively is where I think the team is lacking as the team had a 0.890 save percentage. Whether it’s their defense or goaltending, that is their Achilles heel.

SHUFF’S PLAYER TO WATCH: JOHNNY SHUFFLEBOARD/RYOSUKE SATO
Yup, I did it. I said myself. And Dex. It is for good reason for both of us. In the last five games of the Carolina series Shuffleboard had 6 assists and 18 shots on net. Sato scored a goal in a game one win, and had 10 shots over the first three games. If they can combine to be good the same games instead of each taking half the series, the scoring for Vancouver may just be coming from the back of the Vancouver team.

ARKZ’S GOALIE REPORT
We’ll most likely see a lot of Name Redacted this series, as he started every game against Carolina. Redacted has gone 7-3 in his ten games of action, with a 2.41 GAA and a .896 SV%. That puts him near the bottom of the playoff goalies, but those numbers basically only reflect the Carolina series, which was a talented team offensively. However, Redacted is going to have to step it up big time because he probably won’t be able to count on the Whalers offense to score four or five goals a game.

DEX’S SPECIAL TEAMS ANALYSIS
The Vancouver Whalers special teams went ice cold in the Carolina-Vancouver series. Their powerplay was held scoreless. Although their powerplay wasn’t their strong suit anyways, this lethal offense being held without a goal on the powerplay is extremely concerning. Their penalty kill was a little better, but it was nothing like their excellent penalty kill during the regular season. Their penalty kill was around 82.4% this last series. It’s either their special teams are due, or this could be another weak spot for the team.

PREDICTIONS

Shuff: This is one that will be weird to pick. I’m going to start by booing Dex for not picking a winner in our series against Kelowna. BOO DEX. Now I’d like to boo Dex for not picking a winner in our series against Carolina. BOO DEX. And now, I’d like to boo dex for not picking a winner in this series. BOO DEX. Now, Newfoundland actually beat the Whalers 3 times out of four matchups, an impressive feat. Goals were 9-8 Vancouver, mostly due to Vancouver’s win being a 6-0 shutout of the Berserkers in Vancouver. But you know there is no way I’m picking against Vancouver and myself, so Vancouver in 6.

Arkz: The regular season series was 3-1 in favor of the Berserkers, including a shutout on both sides. Once more, Newfoundland has seemed fully in control in both of their series, while some chinks in the Vancouver armor are apparent. However, I’m not going to pick against my team in the playoffs, come on. Vancouver in 7.

Dex: I know Shuff is already booing me for not making any predictions, but this is my last season in the SMJHL and I would like to avoid any potential jinxes (I have a bit of a track record for that). And so, for one final time, as a member of the Vancouver Whalers and captain of this team, I hope for an amazing final series for my last season in the J.

PREDICTION WATCH: DAY 1
NL 1 - VAN 1
Shuff: So an even start to this series in Vancouver, the scene will shift to Newfoundland. Kind of what Arkz and I expected, picking 7 and 6 games for the length respectively.

PREDICTION WATCH: DAY 2
NL 2 - VAN 2
Dex: The Vancouver Whalers were able to take the series lead after game 3 but the Newfoundland Berserkers answered right back in game 4 to make the series tied once again. It has now come down to a best of 3 where it seems like it can be anyone's game. Both Arkz and Shuff's predictions are still very much alive.

PREDICTION WATCH: DAY 3
NL 2 - VAN 4
Arkz: Wow, what a series. Vancouver wins the Four-Star Cup in six games, 4-2 over Newfoundland. It was a hardfought series on both sides, with more than a few players giving it their all and trying to will their team to a championship. While the defensive bulwark of Newfoundland is not to be underestimated, Vancouver managed to punch enough holes in the titanium wall to secure the series and their second Four-Star Cup as a franchise.

PRESERIES GRAPH

SERIES GRAPHS (UPDATED DAILY)

THE VANCOUVER WHALERS WIN THE S56 FOUR STAR CUP

GAME 1

4 - 2

Shuff: A lot of scoring in the first, each team with two goals, but Vancouver could not find the net in the second or third, while Newfoundland found it once in each of those two frames. Elias Kierkegaard with a three point night (1 goal 2 assists). Newfoundland outshot Vancouver 37-29. A big start for the Berserkers.

GAME 2

0 - 3

Shuff: How about Name Redacted picking up a shutout here in a pivotal game two? A win by Newfoundland would have meant a commanding lead in the series, but Redacted made all 23 saves he needed. Vancouver with 41 shots, Newfoundland could not repeat the success they had in game one. Keep an eye on the powerplays though. The Whalers are 0-5 in the first two games, after going 0-fer in the Carolina series as well. Newfoundland had just 3 chances, and went 0 for three. Will the powerplays ever score?

GAME 3

1 - 4

Dex: In this game the Whalers took a real big 4-0 lead before the Newfoundland Berserkers even scored one. These were goals from all around the lineup but it was Rotticus Scott who was there for most of them getting himself 3 assists for the night. The shots were also 37-27 in favour of the Whalers as they looked dominant. Forrester for the Berserkers were able to break the shutout with less than 2 minutes to go.

GAME 4

4 - 0

Dex: An absolutely heartbreaking game for Vancouver Whalers fan as the Berserkers played some stellar hockey to tie the series back up at 2-2. It's Cale Amundsen with the shutout and goals from Podcalzone, Marner, Birdstrom, and Livius. The shots were in favour of the Whalers 44-20; however the Whalers struggled to get one by Amundsen.

GAME 5

1 - 4

Arkz: 4-1 was the final score, but don’t let those numbers fool you, this was an incredibly close game until the back half of the third. It was 1-1 until Sarah Burke scored about fives minutes into the third to take the 2-1 lead. Vancouver would add two more insurance goals, but the real story of this game was the shot differential. Vancouver finished with 44 shots to Newfoundland’s 20. What’s crazy is that, after two periods, it was fairly close. Then the Whalers went on to outshoot the Berserkers 22-2 in the third. And even still, they only managed to squeak three by Cale Amundson, who will be a candidate for top playoff performer no matter who hoists the cup at the end.

GAME 6

3 - 4 (OT) Whalers

Arkz: If anyone missed this game, I highly, highly suggest you go back and rewatch it. Newfoundland’s Dwayne Gretzkey drew first blood about halfway through the first period. Berserker Mats Marner would then add another goal about eight minutes through the second period to make it 2-0. Then, the extremely eventful third period came upon us and the goals game fast and heavy. Vancouver’s Daniil Nikiforov, Ryosuke Sato, and Wille Coyote each scored to take a 3-2 lead with about 11 minutes left in the game. Then, two minutes later, Berserker Lassi Suhonen tied it at four. Then we went to overtime. Six and a half minutes in, Vancouver’s Devin Basher scored off assists from KnockedOut byOvechkin and Rikki Petrov. Just like that, Vancouver wins the cup. Cale Amundson won the goalie duel in the series overall, but Whaler Name Redacted stopped 47 pucks on 50 shots and showed up when they needed. Congratulations Vancouver!

Quote:2148 words ready for grading, split 30/30/20/20 between @Arkz, @mee, @juke, and I

Nhamlet · 11-08-2020, 11:52 PM

what is this vancouver media bias

JNH · 11-08-2020, 11:55 PM

FAKE NEWS

**leafsftw1967** · 11-09-2020, 12:15 AM

We were the underdogs for every other series so no surprise here. Let's prove them wrong Berserkers

*Festinator* · 11-09-2020, 12:50 AM

It's the Lads against the world Berserkers

Arkz · 11-09-2020, 01:13 AM

Good luck to everyone!

Also, Newfoundland, you guys won last season give someone else a chance.

mee · 11-09-2020, 01:27 AM

Underdogs, be quite. I won like 5 games by rookie season. Gimme a chance to enjoy being the favorite for a change.

*DELIRIVM* · 11-09-2020, 03:15 AM

Imagine being reigning champs back in the SMJHL Finals, after having beaten one of the best defensive teams in the league in 6 games, and thinking you're the underdog because of one article. Tongue

Dextaria · 11-10-2020, 05:32 PM

A little late but post day 1 graphs and writeups are up! Day 2 soon to come

JNH · 11-10-2020, 05:51 PM

11-09-2020, 03:15 AMDELIRIVM Wrote: Imagine being reigning champs back in the SMJHL Finals, after having beaten one of the best defensive teams in the league in 6 games, and thinking you're the underdog because of one article.

Nah, we're the underdogs because the Whalers were the best team throughout the entire regular season. It'd be crazy to call us anything but an underdog against the best team in the league from the season.

It's the SMJHL, last year's results have very little bearing especially when we lost half our roster to call-ups.

Oh and also there's the whole "chance of winning the series: 25%" thing that could also make us underdogs. Food for thought.

Tongue

***Patty*** · 11-10-2020, 05:59 PM

11-09-2020, 03:15 AMDELIRIVM Wrote: Imagine being reigning champs back in the SMJHL Finals, after having beaten one of the best defensive teams in the league in 6 games, and thinking you're the underdog because of one article.