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***sve7en*** · 12-25-2022, 11:36 PM

[1361 words]

(haven't seen that one in a while, have ya?)

If you don’t follow the SMJHL very closely, this season’s index will look pretty pedestrian. Even if you casually follow the league, some of the key takeaways feel like the past seasons revisited - one team started hot, ran away with the points race, one team had a forward chase the goal record, the 8 mid-table teams within 20 points of each other battled for seeding and positioning, and in classic SMJHL fashion, a team won their division where they would have missed the playoffs if the divisions had rearranged in a different way. To do this would be to do these teams, their stories, and the features of their seasons, a disservice. Here’s what you missed and what you need to know as we get ready to finish off the top eight bracket tomorrow:

Rookie contributions were way up, but the top option for rookie of the year played just a quarter of the season

Rookie contributions in the J are often more notable than in the SHL, and this season held true to an extreme degree. Detroit’s unmatched 3rd line headlined by Tobias Wrexks (@Maxy) and Billy Harrington (@Ferda) finished 8th and 17th in the league for points (4th and 6th on the team respectively). For defensemen, the STL duo of Hugh Manius (@Bonk) and David Doug (@TheSparkyDee) led the way with 41 and 35, with winger turned defenseman for the season Johnny Wagner-Svenson (@AgentSmith630) close behind with 33. Finally in goal, Grzegorz Brzeczyszczykiewicz (@Zerg) secured a 0.897 save percentage on his way to an 18-21-7 record and Noah Charlevoix (@charlieconway) put up a 0.887 on the way to a very similar 21-28-7 for Vancouver.

But the SMJHL is a little different as we all know. New users find the site and veterans rediscover their love at different points in the season, and one goalie exploded onto the scene in Carolina, righting the ship almost immediately - Elias Adelberg (@SkittlesInMyBunghole). Joining the team late into the season alongside Caleb Hayden (@"Caleb_H") from Quebec City, Alderberg was thrown into the starter role and started 15 games to Hayden’s 8. He finished with a starter best 0.915 save percentage as he went 11-2-0 to Hayden’s 6-2-0, recording 3 shutouts in those 15 starts.This was not just a function of teams played, Alderberg specifically wanted to start against Detroit, risking his stats against the team scoring 5 goals a game and extrapolated to a full season, Alderberg’s top save percentage and second best win percentage to Detroit’s MVP candidate Jeff Newman (@Lumosityfan) would be joined by 12 shutouts - matching Newman’s and Hayden’s combined total.

In a league where one can’t control the part of the season they join in, it’s silly to hold the amount of games played against a rookie of the year nominee, and his comparable run to goalie of the year candidates while driving Carolina from 9th place to 2nd as the starter should place him above the point leaders on the skater side.

Seasons were played 33 games at a time, unless you’re at the top, the bottom, or really consistent

Every playoff team went on runs this season. Detroit stayed hot all season, Anchorage kicked it into gear later in the season, and hottest of 2nd half Carolina rocketed from 10th to 2nd in the second half of the season. Colorado and Vancouver were both 5th at one point and regressed hard to the lower echelon of the table by the end.

Points by split:
[Image: image.png]

Detroit, Great Falls, and Quebec City are at the top and bottom, so lets take a look at the rest of the league:

Points above 0.500:
[Image: image.png]

And by individual team:
[Image: image.png]

But some teams mixed it up a bit.

Nevada, led by top scorer Alexi Piastri (@vbottas17), surged over the middle of the season, while playing like a 0.500 team to start and wind down the season

[Image: image.png]

But their opponent in the quarterfinals, St. Louis, slumped while Nevada thrived and surged when Nevada stagnated

[Image: image.png]

For the division winners, Maine continued their success from last season’s finals and found themselves matching Detroit’s pace over the first third of the season after a morale killing first week. That rate would prove unsustainable, their roster had turned over a fair bit, and while they regressed a bit as the rest of the league found their footing they still managed to hold on to the division title. Every top team showed flashes of keeping pace with the Falcons but Maine faltered, Carolina struggled out of the gates, and Nevada did a bit of both:

[Image: image.png]

Other teams righted the ships and built towards the future. Kelowna and Newfoundland stumbled early, locking down the 13th and 14th spots by December, but locked it down and played above 0.500 hockey over the later half of the season. While neither made noise in the playoffs, optimism is coursing through the Canadian teams as they matched Regina, St. Louis, and Yukon once kicking into gear.

[Image: image.png]

Finally, Regina and Yukon, paired in their petering along just above 0.500. Regina went the route of Maine in fading a bit in their down year, joining bastions of consistency Yukon in the mid-table. Both teams won their first round matchups and were rewarded with top seed opponents - the third time in the last four for the Malamutes.

[Image: image.png]

Piastri is the MVP, not for his scoring volume, but because he drives the Battleborn

Alexi Piastri set the league on fire this season, scoring at a rate otherwise reserved for Detroit players. He set the goal record, he set the point record, and he drove the offense on Nevada with one of the better corsi and goals for per 60 rates on the team.

Let's assume none of our starting goalies this year are the MVP. Despite good stats Caleb Hayden left Quebec and took on an ancillary role in Carolina, Alexis Texas (@AlexisTexasRanger) had a good season for a goalie of the year bid, but didn’t outclass the field, and Jeff Newman was largely irrelevant to Detroit’s success. This is not a knock on Newman, who had a good season, but a recognition that his performance didn’t provide the Falcons value. The Falcons scored at a rate of 4.94 goals per game over a fairly consistent season, Every goalie that dressed for the whole season put up a GAA to win these games, and only one starter (Towne, on the last place Great Falls) was within a goal of this rate. Newman should be a goalie of the year nominee but not an MVP nominee, the only goalie I think could crack that is Texas, but I think they’ll be overlooked.

Given that we only need to look at skaters, FHM gives us point shares to look at. If you've been around a while, you might remember this concept being brought up the last time I talked MVPs (click for more info). These point shares are good indicators of contribution, but not value. To consider them holistically, lets pair the point shares of some notable names and the best of every team, to the points their team scored this season:

[Image: image.png]

pictured, in order: @hotdog, @narb111, @Justice, @C9Van, @Mutedfaith, @JMacNCheese, @Rangerjase, @JustAnotherHockeyFan, @Rankle, @Roobacca, @TheGreatToeJam, @vbottas17, @SecondSucks22, @Froste39, @Wheels, @Faelax, @Shmurph, @crutch, @jbay7, @StaticShocked, @Legend

Alexi Piastri was one of two forwards to lead their team in point shares (VAN - Gallen), and did so while leading a defenseman heavy list of top point shares per team. The percentage shares of team points demonstrate how much of Nevada’s top 3 season was a result of their top guy compared to the more balanced contributions of Detroit’s roster and Carolina’s forwards. Eriksen stands out as the defensive points leader, and is up there in value created for a top 3 team, but the flair of the records and raw numbers compile for a justly earned MVP award. While the percentage point shares skew towards weaker teams (which also demonstrates Piastri’s excellence) special shoutouts to Quebec City’s Skovgaard for leading the league in team contribution with numbers rivaling the best from St. Louis and other mid table teams.

***sve7en*** · 12-25-2022, 11:43 PM

@Faelax this is what happens when you stop playing CS:GO with me

ACapitalChicago · 12-26-2022, 05:13 AM

HELL YEAH PIASTRI

S66 Damian Littleton

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vbottas17 · 12-26-2022, 01:20 PM

Thanks 7!

AlexisTexasRanger · 12-27-2022, 01:20 AM

I appreciate the recognition sve7en! Our playoff series was one hell of a battle, good luck the rest of the way.

~~Zap~~ · 12-27-2022, 01:33 AM

rookie of the year picked up late is ROTY? have fun explaining it to the gentlemen who were here before? non gm biased I am sure

***Reno*** · 12-27-2022, 06:55 AM

Beautiful! I think! I'm reading this at 6am while getting dressed for work my brain isn't processing information but its pro-Alexis Texas so I'm good.

***Anthique*** · 12-27-2022, 02:00 PM

Damn really good piece!

We have like 6 rookies and made it to the semi, but yeah our season had some up and downs.

Great performance by Detroit rookies!

Rangerjase · 12-27-2022, 03:46 PM

I for one agree that Nash is.... TOP DOG

C9Van · 12-27-2022, 07:51 PM

Neat.

*MikeLiut* · 12-28-2022, 12:13 AM

This is amazing work, thanks for the Xmas gift Sve7en!

*McGriddy10* · 01-07-2023, 03:26 PM

Total word count: 1361 words
Total Payout: 1.4 mil for 1000 words + 420k for the last 361 words = 1.82 million

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